The latest Morgan phone poll has Labor’s two-party lead widening to 63.5-36.5 from 60.5-39.5 last week. I believe this is a record for a Morgan phone poll, while not quite matching face-to-face polls from earlier in the year which put it at 65-35 and 64.5-35.5.
Author: William Bowe
William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.
View all posts by William Bowe
#543 Scorpio
I think Simon Crean would have been a great PM. I am not entirely sure why the public never warmed to him, maybe he lacks charisma or something? The ALP should be greatful of the the reforms he introduced to the party.
Oh my lord
Is he trying to look like an idiot now??
Debate locking up mentally ill – Nelson
http://www.news.com.au/perthnow/story/0,21598,23543786-949,00.html
[Irony of ironies. Howard thought he was stabbing Labor in the back with Workchoices but because of twisted vision couldn’t see until too late that he was actually stabbing his own people through the heart.]
Spot on Kina. In actual fact what did Howard in mostly was that with his blind idealogy taking precedence with his introduction of Workchoices, he failed to realise that the make-up of the average Unions Membership, roughly represented the political affiliation within the community at large. ie roughly 40% labor, 40% Coalition and 20% Minor Party and swinging votor.
In fact in some Unions up to 80% of the Membership were Coalition supporters. These people (not units of production), in effect Howard’s famous “Battlers”, were sold out and betrayed by Howard & Co.
They will find it very difficult to trust a Conservative government ever again. One thing that the Tories have never realised is that Unionists have extremely long memories when they experience unjust, unfair treatment.
Ask any middle aged or older person in Collinsville about their feelings of the AWU even though the issue of concern happened over 40 years ago. They will never forget or forgive. This is Howard’s legacy to the Liberal Party.
[So the Opposition have to be prepared to wear a probably-long period when the public basically have no reason to be interested in them. They had a long opportunity to do the things that Rudd is now doing and they comprehensively wasted their chances.]
Rudd is certainly not wasting any chances so far and people are certainly very interested in what he has to say and what he is doing.
[More than 500 people crammed into the gymnasium of Jamison High School in Penrith to put the Rudd government through its paces during the one-and-a-half-hour forum.
The third community cabinet meeting, after similar forums in Brisbane and Perth, took place in the heart of the former Howard government’s battler belt.
The school fell in the seat on Lindsay, which was won by the Rudd government after the Liberal pamphlet scandal just days before the election.
And after Tuesday night’s performance, it appears the prime minister still has the community’s support.
Addressing the forum, Mr Rudd said the meeting was aimed at “anchoring” his government to the community.
“It is very easy if you are in Canberra to lose touch with what is going on across Australia,” Mr Rudd said.
“We are determined to keep in touch with working families across Australia.”
The gathered residents, who gave Mr Rudd a standing ovation when he entered the gymnasium, certainly came with a list of complaints.]
http://news.theage.com.au/pm-leads-community-meeting-in-sydney/20080415-2674.html
So Sean (551), you’re a fan of the Richmond Report I take it?
The Nightmares. I woke last night, imagining that Howard lies in wait, for Costello to resign, so that Howard may stand in Higgins.
Howard, as the now de facto Leader of the Opposition. I would not put it past him.
Frank,
Rudd is certainly giving the mat a good shake and rattling a few cages at the moment.
It’s as though he has been told that the likes of him has been long, longed for, to set the country on a good and steady path that will be of benefit to the whole community and not just a segmented portion with vested interests.
The Liberals in retaining a Workchoices type IR platform again give life to the union movement and a reason for their continued existence – for protection against the Liberals should they ever come to power.
At the community forum it was a wonder Rudd didn’t bring up the fact that Workchoices would have taken away penalties and so forth, thus making it much harder to make ends meet, in response to the guy complaining about the cost of living and difficulty in making ends meet. And a reminder that the Liberals still retain such a policy. A missed opportunity.
I wonder if Red Kerry will get to have a shot at any of the bye-bye-elections? Assuming he wants to and would be given a chance.
Sinowestie Says: @ 550,
[I think Simon Crean would have been a great PM. I am not entirely sure why the public never warmed to him, maybe he lacks charisma or something? ]
Simon never lacked charisma or ability. He was a victim of the Corporate MSM who demonised him and basically destroyed his leadership within the community.
By the time Simon came on the scene, they had had quite a deal of practise at undermining Labor leaders with Keating and Beasley.
Australia and it’s society is all the more poorer for that.
Time for bed, cheers to all you good people.
A quick one before I retire. Well worth a read. It looks like the Oz have abandoned Brengun.
[While any leader in the same position would struggle to gain traction, Liberals are in despair at the Opposition Leader’s homespun, naive performance and single-digit poll ratings. As Greg Sheridan revealed on the front page of The Weekend Australian, fears that fundamental damage is being done to the Liberal brand are likely to trigger a leadership challenge sooner rather than later. Nothing short of a spectacular budget reply speech and a turnaround in opinion polls, assuming Dr Nelson survives that long, is likely to save him for now.
If the Rudd Government, so far, has been too fixated on symbolism, Dr Nelson has been fixated on trivia. At times he is so inconsistent that he resembles, as The Australian’s columnist Glenn Milne noted, emotional blotting paper, absorbing the reactions of the last person he has consulted. Dr Nelson’s mistakes are a useful how-not-to guide for any Opposition leader. His criticism of Mr Rudd for proffering President George W.Bush a good-natured salute was trivial nitpicking. His stumbles over China and Tibet, especially criticising Mr Rudd for his public statements about human rights violations, were foolish, contradictory and lacked the credibility of an alternative prime minister. On his so-called listening tour, Dr Nelson has appeared driven by a desire to grasp any populist straw that will buy a few votes rather than forging sound policies on solid principles. ]
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,23533646-16741,00.html
Kina @ 557,
Do the Liberals still retain such a policy?
I thought the whole point was that no-one knows what their policy is (which would not be all that much of a problem, if only they were open about being in review mode).
Yes they do, Nelson said as much a few weeks ago about there being room for AWAs that excluded union involvement in their negotiation.
Don’t worry, CW. If Howard ran in higgins, he’d lose that one too.
SeanofPerth @ 552 –
Debate locking up mentally ill – Nelson
This is vintage Nelson. He correctly identifies a problem but then makes a goose of himself by nominating the worst possible solution.
He is almost spot on when he says“The argument was we could put these people out into the community. Then, of course, the money that was tied up in those magnificent residences that our forebears had put aside for them didn’t follow them into the community. It went into other things,”
When they were closing psych hospitals down the states made all manner of promises about using the capital from their sale and the running costs saved to look after the former residents in the community and then failed to keep any of them. The end result is that many are now living in even more reduced circumstances and a good many have ended up in gaol.
Nelson briefly acknowledges the need for greater funding, but then instead of promising to either do that at the federal level or by forcing the states to spend a lot more apparently spends the rest of the interview banging on about locking everyone up in asylums again. Sigh
I also wonder how much exposure he had to the old mental health system. Most of the residences had long ago lost their “magnificence” Anyway, in most cases only the facade was in any way magnificent. Inside they were pretty bleak, depressing and very basic places often worse than the prisons of the period, even when new.
RE MayoFeral post 546
I’m inclined to agree. It’s been interesting hearing some of the debate on this on the radio. A lot of assertions not backed up by much evidence or good arguement. That’s barring the issue RE independent sites anyway. Something that might work there is an exemption for independents who only own a single site. This could see them free to adjust their prices on the fly so long as they notify the price watch say an hour before hand. That would give them the power to remain competitive in the face of predatory pricing by the big companies.
Rudd loves those stars… would have thought he would have gone to Mr. Buttons funeral as opposed to seeing Cate Blanchet’s new baby.
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,23547478-2,00.html
RE blindoptimist post 550
Not sure if you remember Turnball’s Economic policy that Costello howled down. That was just after Turnball was elected, he was getting out advancing a policy that would, as I understand it, have re-jigged the whole tax system.
From memory this would have seen a seamless transition from receiving income support to paying income tax with a threshold around $30k. At the moment, if you’re on unemployment benefits it all jolts around creating what has been labelled a disincentive to work unless you’re moving directly from benefits to a reasonably paid job anyway. If you check the rates, fortnightly income between $62 and $250 reduces fortnightly allowance by 50 cents in the dollar. Income above $250 per fortnight, fortnightly allowance reduces by 60 cents in the dollar (1). That’s before you then start including tax which is usually the minimal 15% on anything over $115 gross a week. If you consider that reducing peoples income support is effectively another form of taxation. Then start doing the maths and you realise the unemployed cop effective tax rates than the highest taxed group! We then wonder why these people don’t want to work especially if their main avenue of work is likely to be lowly paid anyway. I think if Turnball can sell that to the Liberal Party and the public then they’re in with a realistic chance.
I hope that all makes sense 🙂
Refs
(1) http://www.centrelink.gov.au/internet/internet.nsf/filestores/co029_0707/$file/co029_0707en.rtf
567 John of Melbourne – John Button’s funeral started at 10.30am. Rudd visited Cate Blanchett at 1.30 pm and then only for 10 minutes. To link these two happenings is dishonest and mischevious.
youre right Gary re: the times. Rudd could have done both- I wonder why he didnt go to the funeral though??
BTW dont be surprised at the tories getting excited at another attempt to snipe at Rudd. They’re desparate remember
570 Andrew – all I can say Andrew is that the reason he didn’t go must have been genuine otherwise it would have been front page news by now. I note with interest though that his story has been dragged from the Courier Mail site where it was a main story and very few of the media have taken it up. A Rudd haters delight that went nowhere based on nothing.
568
Andrew B.
Well said. The three most effective (and equitable) policies that would most sustainably improve the workforce participation rate among welfare recipients are:
1. eliminate that massive effective marginal tax rate;
2. ensure affordable and available childcare during working hours; and
3. provide decent skills based training.
Notice that these are carrots, not sticks.
JM # 572,
Hush your face! Everyone knows that you can’t go around offering those bludgers a carrot – they’ll shrivel it just by looking at it, then snatch it out of your hand, mug you and steal your wallet to pay for their daily overdose!
/end sarcasm.
If John Button could send the PM a message from the other side he would say “Kevin, you need to prepare for that important event taking place this weekend so don’t worry about me mate. You take care of business.”
Even the opposition won’t stoop to suggesting the PM was disrespectful.
Brendan Nelson is half as popular as Simon Crean.
This tells you something
Steve K isn’t it great that we have a Prime Minister so caught up in his own media image that he’d rather be seen with a second rate actress than paying his respects to a Labor legend.
576 Glen – refer to 569 and get your facts right Glen.
It seems to me the opposition are saying “don’t bother doing anything about petrol, nothing can be done.” Why aren’t they willing to give things a go instead of carping and mocking the government’s attempts?
Gary didn’t mean to be mischevious but as Andrew said he could have done both.
Gary #578, “Why aren’t they willing to give things a go instead of carping and mocking the government’s attempts?” More bipartisanship?
Lol, Rudd should have left petrol prices for the 2020 summit to discuss. 😉
576
Glen
Why do you consider Cate Blanchet to be a second rate actress? I would have thought that someone who has been nominated literally dozens of times for various prestigious awards including the academy awards, golden globe awards and the BAFTA awards as either best actress or best supporting actress would be considered as first rate.
Are you really that bitter and twisted that you consider anyone associated with a Rudd initiative to be less than first rate? If that’s the case then you will also consider former deputy PM Tim Fisher, Tim (the better Costello) Costello and Kelvin Kong (Australia’s first Aboriginal surgeon) to be second rate.
Now, if you think Blanchet really is a second rate actress then I’m interested to know which of her roles in particular you consider to be inferior.
Petrol Prices- the only way forward regarding petrol prices is greater competition. Nonetheless cheaper petrol should realistically not be sort, as we are running out of oil and because of greenhouse gases, price rises will be good for the environemnt in regards to forcing people to use alternative means of transport.
Would prefer that the government started targeting public transport funding instead of this bandaid solution regarding petrol prices. Nonetheless if any comment needs mentioning it is this, at least the Government is trying something as opposed to the Howard Government which did absolutely nothing.
Regarding Rudd and Blanchett- it is about getting on the celebrity bandwagon and what qualifications does Cate have again… The summit as i mentioned previously is a waste of time and will achieve very little except providing people with free food and hospitality, and to listen to people such as Lachlan Murdoch telling us his perspective of the world on economic policy- lower corporate taxes.
And not to be disrespectful to John Button and his rels, if Rudd failed to attend who really cares, as what difference would it have made.
The Summit occupies a single weekend in the life of the Nation. If it’s seen by some as a waste of time then big deal. I’m willing to reserve judgement AND I hope it succeeds. What cheeses me off are people who are hoping for failure. It’s a breath of fresh air having a government that is willing to listen to the people.
You question Blanchett’s qualifications. She hasn’t been appointed a military general or the pilot of a 747. She’s to play the role of a facilitator and a communicator and for that she is well qualified.
The summit will also be about donations- more money for the Labor Party, Four Corners Last Monday night just showcased how political parties make decisions these days the media and most of all donations and being able to talk to pollies…
Their is still a perception within Labor circles that the corporate and elitist mob can be talked around and put simply it is absolute rubbish, people with money want more and will do anything to get it…
So why is Lachlan Murdoch attending the summit Steve K, and is to be the economic guru for economic ideas… Importantly this area is Number One and the lead guy is a media boffon.. .what are they frightened of?
I do not want this event to be a failure.. Never said that just think it is a poor idea. And yes a listening event, listening listening and listening… policy and decisions we will wait and see.. but who will get listened to the most…
Bet you it will be the people with the biggest pockets. Oh i am cynical.
Rudd was at a Community Forum Meeting with all the cabinet Ministers which followed on from the third community cabinet meeting.
The Forum Meeting was planned long before John Button died and Rudd would have been pilloried if he had not attended it.
Looks as though it was very successful too.
http://news.theage.com.au/pm-leads-community-meeting-in-sydney/20080415-2674.html
Yes you are cynical. No doubt that Labor and Libs will try to curry favour with the likes of Murdoch. You might think that’s poor behaviour. Here’s a challenge: show me a government in the free world which has told media power brokers to get stuffed. You have already made your mind up that the Summit will be a failure as it won’t find a cure for cancer by Sunday evening.
Tell me the latitude and longitude of Shangri-La and I’ll book a one way ticket tomorrow.
Steve K, yep at least i kind of admit my flaws but you have one giant one and that being you and Gary Bruce use this sight to spruik Labor policy, and ideas, actually to advertise the Labor Party… What ideas you have i do not know because they never come out, like so many people they get brainwashed by party mantra and this idea that everything we do and believe is right…
Yep just because the rest of the world does it means we have to do it as well…
Media Watch highlighted how pathetic it is all is when the media auctioned of seats…
If the summit produces results i will say fantastic simple… Okay Steve K come back to me in three months and tell me what results it delivered…
[Here’s a challenge: show me a government in the free world which has told media power brokers to get stuffed.]
And note that voters in Italy have elected as Prime Minister a Media Owner, who no doubt used his media outlets to help get himself elected.
So we now admit it the media barrons run the country… even labor insiders admit it.. now lets discuss what we do about it…
584 marky
What if Lachie is there so that he might be revealed to a large number of his peers as a complete fraud?
I think one of the possibilities of the weekend is that a few smart cookies are there to analyse the participants to reveal the real thinkers and leaders, as opposed to a celebration of the status-quo.
For example – is there anything more damaging that the ALP could do to Nelson, other than let him talk to the media at every opportunity? I don’t think so.
The primary sport of the media is to spot the downfall of a public figure 5 minutes before all the other MSM outlets. Why not turn them loose on some of Australia’s best and brightest so the wheat might get sorted from the chaff?
i’m involved in huries and competitions as part of my job. I’d like to think of this weekend as just a bit of self selecting shortlisting.
Our history of public philanthropy falls substantially short of some countries – here’s a good opportunity for some Australians who have derived an awful lot from this country to put there hand up.
huries = juries
The media have their agendas Onimod, just as the Murdoch press does… They ruined Latham, Whitlam, Cain Government in Victoria and their agenda is to ruin Nelson.. but of course i think Nelson does not need the media to ruin him, he is doing a very good job of it himself…
The media love news.. the Iraq war, Murdoch wanted it because it would sell newspapers, and the summit i suppose is news more newspapers to sell…
Yep if the summit produces meaningful results good but i for one am not into summits or talkfests not unless you go to learn about things.. gather knowledge, of the group summits i have attended people go with set mindsets and do not change one bit and the summit i think will be the same…
Gary Bruce @ 578 –
It seems to me the opposition are saying “don’t bother doing anything about petrol, nothing can be done.” Why aren’t they willing to give things a go instead of carping and mocking the government’s attempts?
Because for 12 years they they did virtually nothing and would prefer the people weren’t reminded of the fact. Indeed, the two things they did do, removing the protection independent resellers had from oil companies and then letting the supermarkets to grab a huge slice of the market has severely reduced competition.
The following may give you some idea of whats been happening since the protections were removed:
When fuel-dockets were introduced in my area they were for 10/Litre for the first 2 months or so and there were 5 petrol stations within a 2KM radius. Because neither Coles or Woolies owned any sites they forced 2 of the existing ones to work for them.
And I do mean forced. I know one of the big boys approached one site offering them their business provided they absorbed 8 of the 10 cents/Litre. The particular petrol station was only given a very short time to agree to this or the supermarket would give its business to the competitor just up the road. It is now owned by the supermarket and the competitor is long gone.
The other chain was even sneakier. They initially did a deal with a site and then waited for its main competitor to go under then bought it, no doubt at a greatly reduced price, abandoning the first site. This still struggles on, mainly I suspect because of its location on the main bypass road. It rarely matches the two Coles/Woolies sites being generally 2 cents/Litre more expensive (6 cents with the docket discount).
The fourth tries to compete, but it changes hands at least once a year and probably only survives because of the attached workshop. Most days you could have a kip on the forecourt with little danger of being run over!
When I came here 14 years ago prices were about the same as in Adelaide. Now they are generally 2-3 cents higher at every point in the discount cycle.
592 marky
sure sure
But if I told you to go out and find some leaders and I give you a list of, say 1500, how are you going to whittle that list down into a short list of possible advisers, advocates and patrons?
It’s much better that they do it themselves. Even if you think you’re pretty astute and you arrange to meet 3 of them a day, that’s 2 years of your time, and probably realistically 4 years; and even if you identify the people you think are good, there’s no guarantee their peers do too.
This way – you’ve got a really good first crack at selecting those people that the movers and shakers in Australia rate and are prepared to listen to/follow. I think you’ll find that there are several people who are charged with producing a measured set of participants who are capable and respected at the end of this weekend. The occasion is a relatively safe way of finding them – you’re not asking them to get up and convince a whole nation, just their peers, and with
the number of them in one place, it’s tough to see the Aussie tall poppy syndrome picking 1 or two out for particular ridicule.
(Behind closed doors) The list of people who didn’t accept the invitation, made poor excuses, or didn’t seek a berth when not asked directly, is already a very telling one.
Look – I could be completely wrong, but there are several people/groups that run these sorts of exercises for large companies all the time.
To me it just looks like the Rudd business as usual approach to politics with a bit of icing on top to make sure the skin deep journalists don’t have an F’ing clue about what is really going on.
This weekend is about finding allies who are prepared to convince Australians of some of the very tough decisions we’re going to have to make in the next lifetime. You can’t just make the tough decisions and expect all of us to abide by them and not dismantle them at the next election. You need some of the people in Canberra this weekend to be helping you herd this country of cats on to the bus so we can all get to the next stop.
Just think of what happens if in this term we make enough corrections to say solve global warming. There is no doubt, in this political climate, that the next regime will dismantle the system, and that system will never see the light of day again – an opportunity completely wasted. Battle won; war lost.
I respect your cynicism, and I could be wrong, but I think there is something a little more intelligent going on than the media knows, or would even understand.
593 Mayo
nice explanation there
I’m going to agree with the cynics and say that the listing of prices won’t achieve anything economically….BUT
What it is doing is starting to educate the population about what what is really going on in the market, and softening up the oil companies for real control. The oil companies are smart enough to know this, but what are they going to do? They failed to fix the public problem on their own and they deserve to be reigned in for being a pack of really poor chess players.
Once the scheme is in place, and it does little to placate the public, it gives the government the next green card to move forward. Next thing the price change will be limited to weekly, and if that doesn’t work it’ll be ramped up until the government could eventually put a profit cap on the whole industry.
Sounds stupid when you propose it first up, but we might eventually get there with continued public noise, and an oil industry that’s so hell bent on competition between suppliers that they’ve taken their eye of the overall prize.
Baby steps eventually add up.
573
Mathew Cole
Yeah, I know, it is just the foolish soft-touch lefty in me, believing you get the best from people when you get off their backs, remove the unnecessary hurdles in their way, and give them a genuine positive opportunity.
586
Steve K Says:
You [marky mark] have already made your mind up that the Summit will be a failure as it won’t find a cure for cancer by Sunday evening.
Exactly. MM has set completely unrealistic standards and expectations, and when the summit inevitably falls short of them, he can say ‘I told you so’. Classic pessimist and cynic.
MM, there is a very important (though often subtle) difference between hard (but constructive) skepticism, and relentless, self-fulfilling, self-defeating negativism.
Why don’t you just wait and see what happens at the summit. (Hint: It is not going to magically change the Australian political, economic and cultural landscape overnight. It is a bit of groundwork for later on.)
Why doesn’t the Government cut the GST that is applied to the petrol excise? Or cut the excise by the amount of the GST on the excise? (This is the easier path as the it doesn’t involve getting the states agreement). There shouldn’t be a tax on a tax.
Mayoferal back at 565. Actually, the States have been very uneven in their response to deinstitutionalisation and for a variety of reasons. Largish States with uneven population distribution such as Queensland, and even South Australia, and even more so Western Australia, have faced specific problems around how to organise responsive mental health services, across the life span. Here in Victoria, where I’ve worked for over 30 years primarily in mental health, the transition to community based services has been easier to manage and there has been both good blue prints for how to organise mental health services, and surprisingly, bilateral support from both sides of politics. There are undoubted problem areas, and I would argue, still inadequate funding, but believe me, compared to what “the bins” were like, that Brendan (you know I’m a doctor) wants to return, I reckon he’s just alienated another sizable section of the voting community. Could his Preferred PM status drop even more? You betcha.
Just me- what expectations do i have regarding policy? Put simply maybe i am not expecting something.. .Yep wait and see.. Still though i do not agree with summits.
Maybe if this summit is about convincing, developing meaningful policies and arm twisting people to support them good, but is the summit about writing out some platitudes or statements and once that is done fantastic, but of doing something..
But what of the policies hence we have all agreed to do something about climate change, do something about public hospitals and schools but then the hard part policy… Thus higher taxes cannot happen say the reps from the media and big business, doing something about coal can’t do that it will affect exports and the coal industry and union members.. say union reps and big business… The summit will write a list of statements/platitudes that is my perception, much like a Labor Policy Platform and then left in a cupboard for the next three years…
Just a general comment on the 2020 Summit thingy. There’s been a huge amount of interest here amongst the Mexicans. Local ABC radio have run a whole day ideas generation event at Parliament House and there’s been regional events involving hundreds of people. I reckon one of the yet unrecognised effects of the Summit is that people are becoming re-engaged with the political process, that it’s not only legitimate to do so, but is actually encouraged. P’raps Kev from Quinceland really is here to help. Eh, Marky?