Morgan: 63.5-36.5

The latest Morgan phone poll has Labor’s two-party lead widening to 63.5-36.5 from 60.5-39.5 last week. I believe this is a record for a Morgan phone poll, while not quite matching face-to-face polls from earlier in the year which put it at 65-35 and 64.5-35.5.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

720 comments on “Morgan: 63.5-36.5”

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  1. The phone poll is lower on average than the face-to-face. This augurs badly for the Opposition, who are continuing to pick away at irrelevant minutae like a pack of rabid sandflies, while Rudd serenely sails away on fair winds.

    Even the Libs’ urgers, lurk merchants and spruikers-in-chief – Shanahan, Uhlmann, Albrechtensen, Henderson and Sheridan – have, to varying extents, left sideshow alley and caught up with what the mainstream is thinking. Meanwhile, back in the tent, the Two-Headed Lady, Girl In a Bottle and the Incredible Tattooed Man (aka the Liberal-National Opposition, in various guises) continue to bark away at passers by, trying desperately to get someone, anyone to see the show.

    Rudd forgot to go to Japan.

    Rudd remembered to salute Bush.

    But he forgot to bow to the Queen.

    He talks too much about Tibet.

    He talks too little about Tibet.

    His cost-cutting is too much.

    It is too little.

    We hate Work Choices.

    We love Work choices.

    And, amazingly, Brendan Nelson agrees with all of the above points, so desperate is he to keep his razor-thin Liberal leadership majority in place.

    They are a leaderless rabble. The man who claims to be leader is being pulled around by the nose like a bull at a slaughterhouse, being readied for the butcher’s knife. The rank and file can’t get used to being on the wrong side of the House Of Reps’ chamber. But that doesn’t stop them from beiong on both sides of just about every issue, trying to have two-bob each way on anything and everything under the sun (and a few things that the sun never shone down upon).

    I’ve run out of metaphors for this dreary lot of losers.

    Wait a minute… did I use “turkies”?

  2. Labor is not all that far from double the vote of the LNP and this is a phone poll which slightly disadvantages Labor. I think Australian History shows Conservative parties cannot handle Opposition – they disintegrate until a genuine leader can be found.

    LNP are heading towards being just a right wing rump. Possibility in time a new party on the Left will gain some prominence as Global Warming becomes more important in the Global Consciousness. Perhaps the Greens or a similar party- but they will need a wider base of policies than just “save the planet”.

  3. “I think Australian History shows Conservative parties cannot handle Opposition – they disintegrate until a genuine leader can be found.” Doug, I would amend that slightly. They disintegrate until the Labor Government becomes unpopular and that usually takes more than 10 years. The Libs got in last time due to this. I guess in retrospect this could apply to most changes of government in Australia.

  4. The honeymoon continues for PM Rudd…………….

    ………but meanwhile he may be on a “Listening Tour”, but Brendan Nelson will not like what he is hearing from this poll, nor will his party for that matter. He won’t last very much longer.

    To be honest Turnbulll isn’t much better by saying the proposed budget cuts don’t go far enough. They were in power for so long and remained silent while Howard and Costello held sway and led us to the position of high inflation we are in today.

    The new ALP govt could not get elected until the majority of members that were in Hawke/Keating govts were out of parliament. The same may apply to the current opposition.

  5. so I guess that the opposition havent build on the “momentum” that Roy Morgan falsely attributed to them last time

  6. And I would blame Howard more than Nelson for these poll numbers. He left the party in the state that it finds itself

  7. Well as I have been saying, they wanted to be like one nation, a valid position, one nation has shown there is an extreme right wing vote, its about 10%. They have another 20% to lose. Nelson is a leader, he got to 10% early.

  8. Does anyone have a sense of the numbers in the Liberal partyroom in terms of left/right? It seems the right was strong enough to veto Turnbull straight after the election when just about every commentator viewed him as the more dangerous opponent for Rudd.

  9. Turnbull has gone missing since treasury and the reserve bank made him look like a goose for telling fibs, Nelson is making an embarrassment of himself on his clayton’s tour and all Dolly can do is have hysterics about pandas. No wonder Robb is scraping the barrel considering a return of the Smirk for leader.
    On the big Panda issue by the way, Kev has had a joke about it with reporters saying he was sure they “will enjoy a happy sojourn in Australia”,22606,23522723-5006301,00.html

  10. The only thing saving Brendo right now is that nobody else in the Liberal Party would want the job, not even Turnball! I say keep Nelson around for a few more months, let the conservatives totally implode into complete irrelevance, if they haven’t do so already.

  11. The only saving grace for Nelson is that he does go to great lengths to listen to members of his own party. The Liberals (especially backbenchers) have gotten their voice back on the party room floor, and they’re not about to give it up to an autocrat like Turnbull. That will help Nelson stay on as leader – though it’ll do nothing for his chances to become PM.

  12. Corker of an article by Bernard Keane at Crikey about Nelson’s unhappy listening tour. An excerpt:

    … likely, the Liberals have realised their polling is so terrible they have to go back and consolidate their base vote. That was the Coalition’s successful tactic in 2001, when Labor had surged ahead in the polls: bring back the Liberal base, vote by vote, bribe by bribe, starting with pensioners. In its death throes the previous Government tried it again during the election campaign last year, throwing another whopping bribe at the grey vote.

    Of course, that’s easy when you’re in government


    the Coalition is at the start of its policy development process, not the end. All it can offer is individual employment contracts, and there are a large number of now ex-Coalition MPs who can tell them how popular they will be.

  13. What was the Wally from Wentworth on about today – spending needs to be cut by $10 billion a year to effect inflation.

    He may be stating an economic fact -but it is a political own goal. Is he going to criticise the budget for not cutting spending enough?

    Are there a couple of synapses missing between his mouth and his brain?

  14. I don’t recall Allbull being outspoken about the need for budget cuts when the Coalition was spending up big, running up the inflation problem now being faced.

  15. Allbull and Co can’t have it both ways no matter how hard they try. Come budget night they’ll be complaining about the nasty cuts to this and that while at the same time saying the overall cuts aren’t savage enough. It’ll be a simple case of put up or shut the f#ck up. They will not be willing to identify what cuts they would make if (heaven forbid) they were in government. The Rudd juggernaut will power on regardless.

  16. Well that is an interesting thing for Turnbull to say, a definite own-goal.

    The next question he will have to answer is what LNP spending policies he thinks should be cut, Carer payments, pensions, public servants, defence?

    This gives a number of options for Labor to argue… such as ‘we want to lower inflationary pressures not vandalise the economy’. ‘Let Mr Turnbull tell us where he thinks another $10bn should be cut’.

    AND of course this helps Tanner who has a second round of cuts later in the year remember, he has Turnbull’s up front support for them now!

    Another reason why Turnbull would be useless as Leader. He cant think beyond one or two steps ahead, keeps putting foot in mouth, keeps helping the ALP with what he says. Not to mention his speaking style is off-putting.

  17. 25
    Kina, I agree (reluctantly) with your assessment of Chief Turning Bull.
    Reluctantly because I did expect him to make a good politician.
    However, it’s obvious in interviews that his knowledge of issues is very shallow indeed; he can sound deep and meaningful for a short stretch but if he’s asked in depth questions or to go off topic he flounders.
    Celebrity candidates need to be parked on the backbenches for a while to be given a chance to learn the ropes. Probably CTB’s ego wouldn’t let this happen but it’s his loss.

  18. Turnbull is still thinking about Glen Stevens. He is correctly trying to say that Govt. spending has little effect on inflation.

    But politically he is an A grade dunce – 😛

  19. Actually the odds of Hockey being the opposition leader by the next election are looking very good at around $26.

    Nelson and Turnbull are not options as has been seen by their preformance to date in opposition. They won’t go for Bishop, Downer and Costello have left the building and Pyne is just not an option.

    Hockey would bring a personal aspect to any contest between him and Rudd and the links between him and Work Choices, now abolished, will be in the past when he goes up against Rudd at the next election.

  20. Well there is a reason im going to hear Nelson’s speech on Saturday, because there might not be too many chances of hearing him talk as Leader of the Opposition.

    Do you think he would retire at the next election if he lost the leadership??

    Nelson will get to the budget and the Gippsland by-election. If he doesn’t perform and we Tories lose what should always be a safe Tory seat then the knives may come up sooner rather than later.

  21. It’s all mandarin to the Coalition. They should start brushing up on their foreign languages. It could be a long while in exile.
    Meanwhile, the WA community cabinet comes to Broome on Sunday for some local politicking. Interesting to see what goodies are announced in an election year. Things are certainly hotting up, with pre-selections on both sides reminiscent of earlier days in Victoria. The Premier has been especially active it seems and the deposed Opposition leader has shown there is life left in the old dog yet.

  22. Jesus, or maybe the idea is to say.. “cut more, cut more, in the interests of Australia’s disabled whale loving aged pensioners cut more you bastard”
    Then if Swan doesn’t cut everything from the budget except $100 bucks a yr for a single volunteer cop to patrol the entire OZ, plus $80 bucks for notebooks and pens he can say “see, they should have cut more”!.

    But if Swanney goes in hard and actually allocates a cool $70 for notepads, Turnbull can say “well, the cuts were misplaced” … I would have spent the $70 on a mobile with $30 prepaid credit!

  23. “I’ve run out of metaphors for this dreary lot of losers. Wait a minute… did I use “turkies”?”

    that is an unconscionable slur against alectura lathami, bill. any queenslander knows turkeys have the brains to get out of the sun.

  24. I don’t know what the evidence is for Swan being a fool, no more so they any that have gone before him, his problem I think is just personal presentation style which he is getting better at. Tanner is clearly the better front man.

  25. Ebenezer hate to break it to you but it was Kevin Andrews who wrote up the legislation, Hockey did all he could to get a fairness test put in when he became the IR minister! Hockey is not tainted by WC IMHO!

  26. Glen

    Your comment at 37 is part of your side of politics problem. What if Swan is not a clown? What if Rudd is more substance than spin?

    What if the electorate thinks that they quite like a new invigourated Govt.?

    I know politics is politics but when will your side realise that they are getting creamed by a better team? A team that took a decade to build.

    When are your guys going to admit they stuffed up big time? That the King of Kirribilli had no clothes? That the Smirk did no tax reform for ten years, that our foreign policy was a joke, that infrastructure was an election bribe, that “people skills” was “the worst friend medicare ever had”, that industry policy meant whatever is best for our mates, that climate change was a leftard wank, that water policy could be dreamt up over a weekend, that spending a quarter of a billion dollars on advertising could not sell a turd sandwich, get my drift?

    But you think your side is in deep brown stuff now? Its only just begun. 🙂

  27. “it was Kevin Andrews who wrote up the legislation, Hockey did all he could to get a fairness test put in when he became the IR minister! Hockey is not tainted by WC IMHO!”

    that’s exactly the kind of nuanced argument that will convince voters that the man they saw spruiking serfchoices on tv didn’t actually have anything to do with it. i look forward to hockey’s turn at the liberal leadership. perhaps he could start with a tour called, ‘workchoices wasn’t really my fault, honest’.

  28. Just you wait Ruawake, in 10 years time some Tory will use what you’ve said as reasons why you shouldn’t re-elect the ALP by your standard!

    Ruawake, it doesn’t take a political genius to figure out Swan is a Clown and the worst performer in the Rudd Government, im pointing out a fact. Sure the ALP front bench has some intelligent people in them but Swan is a dunce and couldn’t hold a candle to Costello.

  29. Glen how about waiting till the Budget is handed down? No one is arguing he is a brilliant Parliamentary performer, it is the policy work that counts.

    You really still think Costella was worth a pinch of shit as Treasurer? Sure, with a Treasury brief in front of him, the backbench clacque behind him and a complaisant Speaker he thundered away in Parliament, but let Howie make all the spending decisions.

  30. Apres im glad you refuse to see the facts that Swan is a dunce and Labor’s weakest link. Because the longer he’s Treasurer the more Labor will be vulnerable on economic policy and the easier AllBull’s job will be.

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