As Barack Obama weathers the Reverend Jeremiah Wright controversy, Hillary Clinton misspeaks. Compare and contrast …
Author: William Bowe
William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.
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The Nominee-bots ? oh but once an Obamabot always a Obamabot so.
Of course Junior Senator does not realise when asking for a definition that there are many categories & levels of an Obamabot.
Surely yes there is not equality in Obamabotic paradise
In Clinton-World, Ploughshares Become Swords, Molehills Become Mountains:
“The Clinton campaign’s false assumption—based on a 350-page, state-by-state study in the summer of 2007 by key strategist Mark Penn—that Clinton’s victory was “inevitable” led to a series of mistakes: (1) presenting herself as the “inevitable” nominee; (2) prematurely running a general election campaign; (3) assuming that the race would be over on February 5—Super Tuesday; and (4) believing that a number of small states that held caucuses could be skipped. And if Penn’s strategy didn’t work there was no Plan B. It’s never a good idea to have a pollster in an important policy position in a campaign, since he or she can design the polling to get the answers he or she wants, as some believed Penn had done in the Clinton White House. (Hillary Clinton brought him in after the electoral disaster of 1994.) The Clinton campaign has been divided and sometimes almost paralyzed by internal feuding among outsized egos. By contrast, this hasn’t happened in the Obama campaign: Obama deliberately picked congenial people and instructed his staff that he wanted “no drama.””
This essay was published on March 18, before Boadicea’s Bosnian beat-up broke.
http://www.nybooks.com/articles/21231
EC – to see Mark Penn’s hocus-pocus small minded crap get a drubbing is about the best part of the Obama victory. And given the venomous feelings toward him in the Clinton camp, I reckon that would be an almost unanimous sentiment throughout the Dems. The best way to reunite the party when this is all over would probably be for Obama to literally kick his hapless arse around Times Square while the squealing fool shouted things about the micro-trends of triangulated pain over his shoulder.
I hope we can dredge up a few McCain supporters on this site for the general election. I’ve just ordered “Free Ride: John McCain and the Media” and I’m gonna be pretty pis*ed off if there’s no-one to try it on! :wicked:
Just in case anybody was still wondering whether Al Gore was going to run in this election, he has started a $300 million dollar bipartisan campaign to get climate change on the agenda.
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0308/9268.html
EC 2851 – They sure can string a word together at the NYRB.
I see the article was written before the sniper-fire fib, and yet this excerpt is certainly consistent with that behaviour, and the mental-state question:
“Clinton’s frequent switching of tactics and personas raises the question of who she is and why she’s so changeable: employing a Southern accent in a Selma, Alabama, church; dropping her g’s while touring in Appalachia; sounding something like a cowboy in Wyoming (“concerns that keep ya up at night”), and then back to a Southern accent in Mississippi. Clinton’s variability does not mean that she lacks her own core belief about the need to help improve people’s lives. But it suggests that she is not a natural politician and is willing to try almost anything, while her feuding staff gives her conflicting advice. As a result, her campaign has had no overall message, and her themes have shifted almost by the week. The disorder within her own campaign team raises questions about how she would govern.”
hehehe i loved how when Rudd was on Rove he said he backed Hillary Clinton over Obama for President…now he says he supports nobody lol what a noob!
Now that Clinton is waiting for a 20% win in Pennsylvania after she wins she’ll be continued to be told to quit the race and she wont. McCain ought to give donations to Hillary as the longer the Dems duke it out the more one of them will look like damaged goods come November.
From having a long shot, McCain actually has a decent shot at being President how hilarious would that be considering the Democrats thumping win in 2006…it is true what they say about the Democrats they really do shoot themselves in the foot whenever they have the chance to win. If McCain wins later this year a lot of the reason for that will be the Dems infighting!
MDC is looking good in Zimbabwe but Mugabe will probably rig it in the end.
Live election results from Independent Site… http://www.zimelectionresults.com/
well glen , the Democrats would not be the firsrt Party to lose a unloseable election
Oui jv, the muthas who get the commissions at nyrob can write orright.
And Pancho, Penn’s a galoot and so is Peter Daou, formerly of Salon, who tossed in his posi as blogmeistre of Salon’s War-Room to triangulate for Hillary and her campaign about 2 years back. I paid Peter Daou out unmercifully at the time and if I ever see him cut loose on a Sep blog again, I shall take great delight in personally knee-capping the grasping little grifter wordsmith to ensure that it’s deja-vu for him all over again.
Selling one’s soul to a dipstick is always a poor career choice. At least Doktor Faustus messed with the best minds of his time, even if they were a bit bent.
Glen, by your standards you’re a bit of a noob then! Weren’t you an unabashed supporter of Rudy, and telling us that the old man was done for?
And a Malcolm supporter at one stage before locking in behind the people’s opposition leader currently in petrol stations and bagging groceries?
As one with a slightly better tipping record than you of late, let me give you my predictions – Hillary in Penn by no more than ten, then a drubbing in NC before her end. And a landslide in November.
Here’s a cold shower for you Obama Overeachers from someone that might actually understand US politics.
http://www.newsweek.com/id/129586/page/1
Then by your standards everybody, including you can be called a noob, as everybody wrote of McCain including the Hillbilly backers and Obamabots…
Actually by that stage i barely mentioned McCain as Romney and Huckleberry was challenging Rudy.
I never backed Turnbull, i may have acknowledged that he may get the job in the future but i backed Nelson given his stance on issues that i believe in like no
republic.
Pancho as i remember i picked the results in WA something no other pollbludger did in Nov 2007 so spare me your slightly better tipping record.
I’m not Hillary backer Pancho but sure i want her to stay in the race for obvious reasons that will explain my joy at her ‘victories’ in Ohio and Texas. Obama may end up the nominee but he’ll be damaged goods by the time he comes up to McCain which gives McCain a great chance to make the race competitive.
Worrying signs as Obama goes further backwards versus McCain. Why does this man bother?
http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Obama/Maps/Mar31.html
GG,
Why does this man bother?
Well, for one thing, he is winning against Clinton …
Touchy Glen! We had discussions where I guaranteed you McCain would win before Super Tuesday, and others where you talked up Malcolm (before his ‘betrayal’ of your party on AM). If I could be bothered I’d dredge ’em up, but I really can’t. Good work on WA, whatever you tipped.
Ha talked up Malcolm, i dont believe i was the only person to say he was a ‘popular’ choice before his ‘betrayal’ but i did believe Nelson was a good choice given Malcolm’s support of Kyoto, Apology and a Republic the trifecta was enough to swing me to Nelson ultimately.
‘she is more attuned with my “personal” Labor values’
What might they be when they’re at home. Do tell! Thrill us horse.
Glen
‘Obama may end up the nominee but he’ll be damaged goods by the time he comes up to McCain’
Even as of now the number of quotable quotes against Obama from Clinton McCain can use must be immense. Then we have had not just the right but mainstream media full of comment on Pastorgate with quotes mcCain can use.
Some comparative Polls against McCain by State are unhealthy for Obama.
This is all before McCain has even fired a shot
Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton stunned voters at a town hall meeting in Erie, Pennsylvania today by telling them that she was prepared to stay in the nomination fight for an additional century.
“How much longer will I stay in the race?” she responded to a voter’s question. “Fifty years? How about one hundred years?”
When asked to clarify, Sen. Clinton replied, “I’ll stay in this race for a thousand years. A million years. A billion years.”
Sen. Clinton added that she was refusing to announce an exit strategy from the race because “that would send the wrong message to the enemy.”
The New York senator’s comments echoed a strategy outlined in a recently leaked internal campaign memo, which calls for her to remain in the race long after the Democratic National Convention, even if Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill) becomes the party’s official nominee.
According to the memo, Sen. Clinton plans to follow Sen. Obama’s campaign bus around in a Chevy Suburban in the hopes of running it off the road.
“If necessary, we will sideswipe or ram into his bus,” the memo said. “Just really mess him up.”
For her part, Sen. Clinton remained resolute at the town hall meeting, responding to a question about the recent surge in negative attacks her campaign has lobbed in Sen. Obama’s direction: “What can I tell you? The surge is working.”
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/andy-borowitz/hillary-vows-to-stay-in-r_b_94077.html?view=print
At least Growler has previously articulated his Labor values , you Codger sit as a sniper with gibberish comment
Diogenes @ 854
McCain can make history this election. He will be the first person more than one inch shorter than the male average to be elected POTUS in over two centuries. Or so says Kevin Drum. He’s also the worst teleprompter reader I can recall in US politics. Looks like he’s straining to see it, and his voice completely changes. There’s a reason he did all those town hall q&a sessions in NH, rather than rallies, I reckon.
Not to say he isn’t a formidable candidate, the best the Republicans could have picked. But nobody from the left has even taken a swing at him yet, really. Wait until the “100 years war” ads and the “I don’t understand the economy” ads start running (especially the latter). It’s way too early to say he can’t win, but he hasn’t really been tested yet. He is, as you suggest, getting a free ride and that won’t last forever. We need Saturday Night Live to do a skit about it.
RE 867 besides we are still struggling with how to decipher let alone interpret $ respond to ‘ppracy c*ntroy’…it just gets harder & harder…
Over to you horse. *=u
Gosh Ron, gibbeish…love it, make my day, oh please…
and you believe this media beatup of 2 storys melded into one story Kirribilli.
the billion years one (if true) proves Hillary hasn’t not a good comedy writer as her intent was by wit to downplay the pressure to concede. Thats all.
Hardly a story.
the 2nd is typical of the dirty tricks all play in US politics which Party’s could never get away with in OZ as the story is so absurd its a plant or a poor joke
r there Ron just for you
Ron, GG, and Finn – some good news:
From the New York Times …
Obamaville exists!
#872 codger , now you are actually replying to your own earlier blogs
Send them back Ron you know to the ‘crappycountry’, breathe easy.
871 Molesworth , both McCain statements are easy to ‘spin’ & negate.
McCain’s support for Iraq is not
If only you did Ron!?! If only.
Codger
I get replies so don’t. Whereas you’ve now started blogging to yourself in #872.
Only you seem to understand the gibberish
Bosnia girl hits the media (it was only a matter of time).
From the New York Post article.
Hey Ron did you know that Frank Zappa was a commie?…explore…
PS if he lived he would have voted for ‘H’.
871 Molesworth
Diogenes @ 854
McCain can make history this election. He will be the first person more than one inch shorter than the male average to be elected POTUS in over two centuries.
So the bottom category of the Obamabots have this in common with McCain as well
Crappy Country Commisar
‘At least Growler has previously articulated his Labor values’
He has? Gosh, missed that gem…
And yours?…are…
Ron @ 878
I’m not so sure they’re that easy to negate. Maybe the 100 years one because he wasn’t really saying what it sounds like. But not the economy one, because he actually meant it (contrariness or honesty, take your pick). I suspect that, on high rotation, against the backdrop of a stagnant or shrinking economy, combined with broader attacks on McCain as Bush III, it will hurt. The whole line that “McCain is weak on the economy, that’s why he’s always on about the war” will also be an easy sell to a lot of journos.
On Iraq, Obama needs to be careful how he positions himself after the primaries are over (assuming he wins). I suspect he will soften his withdrawal rhetoric somewhat once Clinton can’t pounce on him for it. There is no doubt that American swinging voters view McCain as competent on foreign affairs. The last thing Obama will need will be the bulk of the foreign policy establishment coming out and predicting chaos/an Iranian takeover if withdrawal is too quick. And many American swinging voters still love being told they can win in Iraq. Obama will need to mollify the Council on Foreign Relations types, as Samantha Powers was trying to do with America’s allies. He has clearly left this option open by saying things to the effect of “we’ll leave troops for training and to fight AQI” (without specifying just how many brigades) and “we’ll go back in if AQI take over”.
A lot of the Iraq coverage in the campaign will be driven by events on the ground in Iraq, many of which we can’t predict. But one big one will be regional elections in October. These could be an orgy of violence and a disaster for McCain. They could, on the other hand, see a decisive victory for the Iraqi Awakening Councils among the Sunnis and be painted as a great boost for the current strategy. Iraq cuts both ways in this campaign, like it did in Australia in 2004 when Latham’s “troops out by Christmas” allowed the Libs/pundits to paint him as risky on security even though the war was unpopular.
Molesworth , agree with alot of your poste specially how ‘stable’ iraq is up 2 Nov
If its chaos , can not see the Repugs winning
The comment “we’ll go back in if AQI take over” is going to get airplay against O
and in so many damaging ways.
The context of the McCain economy remark is important. The Wall Street meltdown will become the Democrats blame. the voters there may understand the legislature (Democrat controlled) could have bought in more regulation than proposed (the point Bush would have vetoed it anyway won’t wash.
I think McCain is the toughest opponent the Repugs could have put up especially in “trust” which has been Obama’s strong suit against Hillary but think it may be his weak suit against McCain
Just like to congratulate our Dear Leader for his good judgement in his preference for Hillary. And a good spin for snubbing Obama. The Dear Leader has met Hillary face-to-face, while he’ll be talking to Obama on phone because he is away campaigning in Penn. Classic, DL, classic.
#863 – GG – yep, our boy has been slip slidin’ away, the SDs must be getting very nervous:
Mar. 31 – Electoral Votes: Obama 205 McCain 324 Ties 9
Mar. 30 – Electoral Votes: Obama 215 McCain 314 Ties 9
Mar. 28/29 – Electoral Votes: Obama 228 McCain 301 Ties 9
Mar. 26/27 – Electoral Votes: Obama 228 McCain 301 Ties 9
Mar. 25 – Electoral Votes: Obama 218 McCain 296 Ties 24
Mar. 24 – Electoral Votes: Obama 231 McCain 292 Ties 15
In the wise words of paul simon:
Slip sliding away, slip sliding away
You know the nearer your destination
The more you’re slip sliding away
Finns, I have found a great site to have a look at in conjunction with the electoral vote fellow. It looks great with numbers and there is a bit more analysis, and it seems to do a pretty similar thing to the ‘votemaster’, only a little more scientifically. Its numbers as of 31 March:
Electoral votes: Obama 264.7, McCain 273.3
as opposed to : Clinton 241.2, McCain 296.8
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/
Whoops:
“Among the debts reported this month by Hillary Rodham Clinton’s struggling presidential campaign, the $292,000 in unpaid health insurance premiums for her campaign staff stands out.
Clinton, who is being pressured to end her campaign against Barack Obama for the Democratic nomination, has made her plan for universal health care a centerpiece of her agenda.”
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0308/9274.html
And if those SDs are shaking in their boots, it aint showing. Hillary’s lead is below 35 for the first time, 246-213:
http://www.sourcewatch.org/index.php?title=Superdelegate_Transparency_Project
Viewing various Obama support sites , the venom against Hillary matchs this site
and this spiteful Hillary view has been mailed directly to Democrat voters
50% of whom are Hillary supporters without whose votes Obama will get thrashed in November.
After the most vicious ever of Primarys , Obamabots dream all will be forgiven by the Clinonites & the Party unites and they all will come out to vote for Obama
Pancho,
Votemaster has a track record of accuracy in the last three elections so must have an edge of credibility over your new site.
You really don’t want to bet the house on a source that’s untried, unknown and untested………Oh that’s right, you support Obama.
Cheers.
True to type, the new era of financial ‘regulation’ will be no such thing. In a word, it’s business as usual.
Or in other words, Bush isn’t going to interupt his time on the ranch to fix a colossal mess that he can pass on to the next Prez. Just stick it on the pile, along with Iraq, healthcare, social security, New Orleans and a trillion other little things.
Bless ‘im, for he is a retard.
# Kirribilli Removals
what sort of analysis is that , just ignore the Democrat controlled Congress sitting on their hands & not putting in more regulation , whilst Rome burns
As reported in today’s AGE
“A Gallup tracking survey indicated the Illinois senator extending his lead over Clinton among Democrats nationally to 52% versus 42%, Obama’s largest lead of the year so far.
This marks the first time either candidate has held a double-digit lead over the other since early February, when Clinton led Obama by 11 percentage points, the polling firm pointed out.”
The “big mo” is with Obama and Clinton is disappearing over the Hill and down the dale.
GG – nup. I just trust rigorous method over sniping commentary. I’m ovviously not discounting vm, but am taking his own misgivings about figures this far out from an election into consideration. And presenting another source which is also scientifically sound but offers very different conclusions.
Pancho , how can your end resultsbe scientifically sound when it relies on 2 different pollsters having divergent poll results and different poll methodiology
Ron – each has a method which it follows. Divergent results are produced. My point is that one or the other set of results doesn’t prove anything, particularly this far from an election. This is not the contest people are following at this stage, and the Democratic Party does not have a nominee. It is an interesting exercise, but examination shows that differing ends can be achieved.
The link I provided also has some analysis of both Rasmussen and SurveyUSA – two of the more accurate pollsters which both sites seem to accept and be using, and an attempt at explaining how and why each of those organisations is returning different results.
There is a focussed contest going on at the moment, and by almost all indicators in this contest, Obama is well ahead. Clintonites have offered delegate vote, SD vote, popular vote, and now electoral college vote as it has suited their arguments. Shifting the goalposts is, again, interesting but disingenuous. There is one race happening at the moment, and Obama is winning. To mount an argument about Clinton’s electability while she is losing an election doesn’t make sense to me.
Typical defence , claim I’m referring to Clinton (which I did not) then proceed to
ague your case aganst my case containing your distorted insertion.
Re-read what I said
Ron – none of that explanation was directed at you. The first paragraph was an explanation of why I posted a different source and what I think that means. The second paragraph goes to the question of different methodologies being solid and reaching different ends. The third paragraph is a general reasoning for why I think it is disingenuous for folks like Evan Bayh to now be talking of electoral votes – and further to mount arguments like Finns’ above – on the strength of them alone.