Texas and Ohio live

4.50pm. CNN calls Texas for Clinton. Her lead is back to 51-48 with 75 per cent reporting.

4.42pm. Still 50-48 in Texas with 69 per cent reporting, but the trend on raw figures is nudging gently back to Cllinton. We also have 5 per cent of the caucuses reporting with Obama leading 56-44; no idea what to make of this.

4.12pm. Only just noticed how great the New York Times’ graphical maps are. Run your pointer over Texas and note how a lot of the big counties in the Obama-voting cities have a very low count.

4.08pm. … and her lead his now back to 50-48 with 63 per cent reporting.

4.08pm. CNN analyst says most of Clinton’s strong areas in Texas are “in”; if Obama’s early 60-40 lead in Houston holds up, it will apparently be enough to put him ahead, although he stresses that won’t definitely happen.

4.02pm. Clinton has gained another point in Texas, leading 51-48 with 58 per cent reporting.

3.27pm. Been away from my post for a bit. Clinton has claimed victory in Ohio and is currently delivering a speech making it very clear she’s not about to withdraw. Clinton leads 50-48 in Texas with 46 per cent reporting.

2.46pm. Now 51 per cent of precincts in Ohio and Clinton’s lead has in fact widened a little, to 57-41.

2.33pm. Clinton has caught up with Obama in Texas with 20 per cent of precincts reporting: now 49-all. Her lead is only narrowing slightly in Ohio, now at 56-42 with 47 per cent reporting.

2.14pm. Clinton still leads 57-41 in Ohio with 35 per cent of precincts reporting. Talk in comments suggests a 50-50 result in Cleveland, which I gather was expected to be good for Obama.

2.08pm. Interviewee on Fox Radio notes that Rhode Island exit polls were way out, pointing to a close result when it has actually been a big win for Clinton.

1.50pm. 21 per cent of precincts in Ohio now reporting and Clinton’s earlier lead is almost intact – now 59-39. Texas count has edged up to 6 per cent and Obama’s earlier lead has steadily been whittled away, now down to 51-49.

1.36pm. Clinton still leads 60-38 in Ohio with 14 per cent of precincts reporting.

1.31pm. Claude in comments points out another factor in Ohio being the extension of voting in some counties where Obama is expected to do well.

1.28pm. CNN calls Rhode Island for Clinton, her first win since Super Tuesday.

1.28pm. Al in comments notes no precincts are in from the Ohio cities of Columbus and Cleveland, the former being an Obama-friendly college town.

1.23pm. Huckabee announcing withdrawal. Clinton leads 60-38 in Ohio with 6 per cent counted, but this is presumably with Clinton-friendly areas reporting.

1.10pm. Fox reports that Mike Huckabee has confirmed he will withdraw, but says there are “conflicting reports”.

1.04pm. Obama campaign reportedly feeling upbeat about Ohio, the bad weather having diminished the turnout from older Democrats who favour Clinton. Fox gives McCain a clean sweep of Texas, Ohio, Vermont and Rhode Island.

1.03pm. McCain by all accounts now has enough delegates to secure the nomination.

1.01pm. Via Kevin Rennie, an explanation of the Texas system from New Republic.

12.45pm. I’ve had my eye off the ball for the last 45 minutes. Obama has an early 56-44 lead in Texas, but these are big city precincts where he is expected to do well. I’m not going to pretend to be on top of the Texan primaries-plus-caucuses system: perhaps somebody who is can provide a brief explanation in comments.

11.55am. Exit polls point to a “tight race” in Rhode Island.

11.40am. CBS News reporting a very high turnout by Hispanics in Texas and low turnout of African-Americans, boding well for Clinton.

11.30am (Australian EST). Polls have just closed in Ohio, and Fox News has immediately called Ohio for John McCain but predicted a close result between Clinton and Obama. Vermont is being called for Obama and McCain.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,628 comments on “Texas and Ohio live”

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  3. What is Brutus Huckabee giving us here?: “Senator McCain has run an honorable campaign because he’s an honorable man.”

  5. On the face of it, 60/38 with a whopping 14% counted as I write, looks like a massacre for Obama.

    But it’s worth contrasting the county-by-county voting maps (on NYT and doubtless others) with the Ohio population concentration map: . It’s largely the hicksville counties at the moment.

    However, having an urbanised population (especially outer burbs) doesn’t necessarily favour Obama: Clermont County, whose population base is largely Cincinatti’s outer sprawl, has split 62:37 to Clinton. In addition, there are quite a few hicksville counties still to go: and even though the counties might be hicksville, the people in them are really getting out and voting for her in numbers, e.g. Lawrence County with about 10,000 votes cast, currently splitting 79:19 for her!

    If Obama doesn’t get well into the mid-40s, probably high 40s, in Ohio, and convincingly win Texas to boot (a v big ask), then the Clinton machine will keep rolling on. And on. And on. It’s hard to see a big event that could cause her to say ‘stop’ any time soon. The nearest is Indiana and North Carolina with a grand total of 218 delegates between them, on May 6. That’s an eternity away.

    I don’t think it’s looking good for Obama to bring this show to a close today.

  11. Obama lead in texas is now down to 40,000. As all those hispanic city booths come in Hillary could still win Texas. The caucus will be crucial.

  16. Re Ohio, RCP reports:
    “The populous Cuyahoga (Cleveland) and Hamilton (Cininnati) counties have not reported results yet. This plays a huge role in why Clinton is currently up 20 points, according to CNN’s results reporting. Those two counties should bring the race closer as they begin reporting. “

  20. SimonH

    Just oen thing on the “Hillary machine”. Obviously my having reached teh view that I would prefer Clinton as the democrat candidate biases me, but I find the many references to the Hillary machine (not just yours) to be odd. Obama has run a great campaign, and he has attracted more money than Clinton, and obvioulsy has more workers in the field than her in most states. That is fair enough given Obama’s popularity, but why no comments on the Obama machine? In my view, he has run one of the slickest campaigns for a long time, complete with lots of media coverage and Hollywood celebrity endorsements. In short, I think he has the biggest, cleverest machine in this race.

  22. Everyone seems very excited by the obvious. Once it was established that Clinton rules the Hooterville minor counties, then inevitably Obama’s pre-poll lead would be whittled down (possibly even reversed) as their results come in first.

    The real issue is which way it will go when the big cities and burbs start bringing in solid numbers.

  23. Socrates,

    Couldn’t agree more. Just using the established short-hand of political debate: on one side, it’s ‘the Clinton machine’ or ‘Billary’. On the other, it’s ‘the Obama cult of personality’ or ‘Obamania’. (If it was being run in Australia, it would hopefully be ‘the Barrackers’.)

    Doesn’t change the fact that Clinton is a very polished public speaker, or that Obama has a large and well-resourced team behind him, of course.

  34. LTEP

    I have seen quite a few polls that suggest MCain is more likley to beat Hillary than Obama. But I could be wrong. Perhaps Glen is hoping for a democrat win in November… ?

  39. In the Texas primaries each percentage point is worth about 1 1/4 delegate; in Ohio, about 1 1/2. So, at this stage, Hilary is gaining 21 1/2 delegates in the two.

  42. No but i could stand Hillary more as she actually articulates her policies Pancho instead of talking pie in the sky rhetoric…she’s the Democrat substance candidate IMHO.

    McCain is a good campaigner and it will be tough to get out the vote for Republicans come November. Still glad Huckleberry is out now McCain has to pick a good Veep!

    With 34% counted and Hillary ahead by 120,000 votes id say its all over for Obama in Ohio….but much more interesting in TX 50 Obama 48 Clinton with just 14% counted…Billary is looking good!

  43. #128 LTEP

    I presume Glen is cheering on Hillary because he thinks the Republicans will find it easier to beat her than Obama? Is that right, Glen?

    I happen to agree with this theory. But I also think either Democratic candidate will beat McCain.

  45. Interestingly the NYT’s very early figures show Cleveland splitting roughly 50-50.
    If (emphasise “if”) that holds then Hillary has Ohio in the bag, I would have thought.

  47. Politico suggest delegate split:
    Rhode Island: delegate allocation is likely 10-8 (to clinton)
    and Vermot 6-4 to Obama.
    So that would make it even before Ohio and Texas

  48. No matter whether Clinton or Obama wins, the conservatives are a spent force and will be out of power in both the US and Australia for a loooong time.

  49. Thanks Al, looks like my information was old.

    As a general comment, unless the Texas caucus is one sided it looks like Clinton might reduce Obama’s lead by 20-30 today, but Obama will still be 60-70 in front overall.

    Better go and pick that fantasy football team…

  50. No Antonio i have switched a few times pissed off with the Clinton campaign and Hillary crying and then i got sick of listening to Rhetoric from Obama thus im back on the Hillbilly bandwagon on the Democrat side! It will be hard for the Republicans to win come November against either candidate IMHO.

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