Texas and Ohio live

4.50pm. CNN calls Texas for Clinton. Her lead is back to 51-48 with 75 per cent reporting.

4.42pm. Still 50-48 in Texas with 69 per cent reporting, but the trend on raw figures is nudging gently back to Cllinton. We also have 5 per cent of the caucuses reporting with Obama leading 56-44; no idea what to make of this.

4.12pm. Only just noticed how great the New York Times’ graphical maps are. Run your pointer over Texas and note how a lot of the big counties in the Obama-voting cities have a very low count.

4.08pm. … and her lead his now back to 50-48 with 63 per cent reporting.

4.08pm. CNN analyst says most of Clinton’s strong areas in Texas are “in”; if Obama’s early 60-40 lead in Houston holds up, it will apparently be enough to put him ahead, although he stresses that won’t definitely happen.

4.02pm. Clinton has gained another point in Texas, leading 51-48 with 58 per cent reporting.

3.27pm. Been away from my post for a bit. Clinton has claimed victory in Ohio and is currently delivering a speech making it very clear she’s not about to withdraw. Clinton leads 50-48 in Texas with 46 per cent reporting.

2.46pm. Now 51 per cent of precincts in Ohio and Clinton’s lead has in fact widened a little, to 57-41.

2.33pm. Clinton has caught up with Obama in Texas with 20 per cent of precincts reporting: now 49-all. Her lead is only narrowing slightly in Ohio, now at 56-42 with 47 per cent reporting.

2.14pm. Clinton still leads 57-41 in Ohio with 35 per cent of precincts reporting. Talk in comments suggests a 50-50 result in Cleveland, which I gather was expected to be good for Obama.

2.08pm. Interviewee on Fox Radio notes that Rhode Island exit polls were way out, pointing to a close result when it has actually been a big win for Clinton.

1.50pm. 21 per cent of precincts in Ohio now reporting and Clinton’s earlier lead is almost intact – now 59-39. Texas count has edged up to 6 per cent and Obama’s earlier lead has steadily been whittled away, now down to 51-49.

1.36pm. Clinton still leads 60-38 in Ohio with 14 per cent of precincts reporting.

1.31pm. Claude in comments points out another factor in Ohio being the extension of voting in some counties where Obama is expected to do well.

1.28pm. CNN calls Rhode Island for Clinton, her first win since Super Tuesday.

1.28pm. Al in comments notes no precincts are in from the Ohio cities of Columbus and Cleveland, the former being an Obama-friendly college town.

1.23pm. Huckabee announcing withdrawal. Clinton leads 60-38 in Ohio with 6 per cent counted, but this is presumably with Clinton-friendly areas reporting.

1.10pm. Fox reports that Mike Huckabee has confirmed he will withdraw, but says there are “conflicting reports”.

1.04pm. Obama campaign reportedly feeling upbeat about Ohio, the bad weather having diminished the turnout from older Democrats who favour Clinton. Fox gives McCain a clean sweep of Texas, Ohio, Vermont and Rhode Island.

1.03pm. McCain by all accounts now has enough delegates to secure the nomination.

1.01pm. Via Kevin Rennie, an explanation of the Texas system from New Republic.

12.45pm. I’ve had my eye off the ball for the last 45 minutes. Obama has an early 56-44 lead in Texas, but these are big city precincts where he is expected to do well. I’m not going to pretend to be on top of the Texan primaries-plus-caucuses system: perhaps somebody who is can provide a brief explanation in comments.

11.55am. Exit polls point to a “tight race” in Rhode Island.

11.40am. CBS News reporting a very high turnout by Hispanics in Texas and low turnout of African-Americans, boding well for Clinton.

11.30am (Australian EST). Polls have just closed in Ohio, and Fox News has immediately called Ohio for John McCain but predicted a close result between Clinton and Obama. Vermont is being called for Obama and McCain.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,628 comments on “Texas and Ohio live”

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  2. CNN exit polls don’t look good for Obama in Ohio.
    Clinton winning females 54-45
    And Obama winning males 52-47
    Generally more females are voting for each Democratic primary.

  5. My rudimentary maths skills says that the CNN exit polls point to about a 51-48 Clinton win (although who knows how accurate their polls will be). I think that Obama’s camp would be fairly happy with that result on the basis of polling from 3-4 weeks ago.

  7. If it really is ‘close in Ohio’ that would be an amazing result for Obama.

    Vermont meanwhile is predictably 58/40 to the Big O after 3%

  9. “I’ve got a live thread up,…..”

    So, if this blog is live, have all the others shuffled of their mortal cyber-coils to join the choir insisibule with heavenly music courtesy of inter-tubular bells, William?

  10. Brattleboro, Vermont, has voted to pass a resolution to indict GWB and Chaney for crimes against the US Constitutions and instruct its police to arrest them. According to CNN, GWB has never visited Vermont as POTUS. At least they got some sense of humour among the falling leaves of Vermont.

  18. Although they’re maningless at this stage of the count, I think Obama would probably take those results!! That split would do him fine, I think…

  23. Polls are still open for another 45 minutes in Texas so I’m assuming the counting so far is from the east / least Latino areas?

  28. Texas primaries closed at 7pm local time (CST), anyone still in line for a ballot can still vote. Caucusing starts at 7.15pm local time.

  33. Asanque, that probably has a lot to do with the make up of Texas producing more early voters than any difference in counting techniques.

  38. The dreadful weather in Ohio will effect the turnout for one of HRC’s more friendly demographics, over 55 Euro-Americans.

  40. Thanks Turning Worm

    BTW – note that that is 1% of precincts reporting, not voters. Obama is now leading 56/43 in Texas. Hillary is leading 62/36 in Ohio but on small numbers.

    McCain has won Ohio, so that gives hime the Republican race.

  41. The Texas map looks fantastic for Hillary, the big city big booths have come in fast and skew the early results, but if you look outside the big cities it is a sea of Clinton voters. The the districts that haven’t yet been counted yet go for Hillary like their neighbours she’ll get a decent win (in the popular count, it’ll probably end up close to a tie in delegates).

    http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/county/#TXDEMMAPprimary

  43. It’s all terribly exciting, isn’t it? But nearly every indicator says it will be close. So chances are this will all be meaningless.

    IF Obama wins TX And OHIO, there will be pressure on Hillary to bow out. But Hillary has already said she will plow on regardless – is she just bluffing?

    I’d hate to see super-delegates decide this thing: better if the Party leaders asked both camps to run a joint ticket.

  46. Whether or not she is going to continue, Hillary would have to say that she was going to so as not to appear weak. So I don’t think we can read too much into her statements until we see numbers.

  47. Adrian, if you look closer at the votes in the rural areas, there’s been less than 500 votes tallied in most counties. A lot of those votes I imagine are from small polling stations and pre polls. Based on opinion polling data from when early voting opened on 19 February, I’m very surprised that Obama was so far ahead.

  50. Essex county in Vermont is currently tied 177 votes to 177 votes with 38% reporting. If Obama pulls ahead it looks like he will take all of the counties in the state.

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