Texas and Ohio live

4.50pm. CNN calls Texas for Clinton. Her lead is back to 51-48 with 75 per cent reporting.

4.42pm. Still 50-48 in Texas with 69 per cent reporting, but the trend on raw figures is nudging gently back to Cllinton. We also have 5 per cent of the caucuses reporting with Obama leading 56-44; no idea what to make of this.

4.12pm. Only just noticed how great the New York Times’ graphical maps are. Run your pointer over Texas and note how a lot of the big counties in the Obama-voting cities have a very low count.

4.08pm. … and her lead his now back to 50-48 with 63 per cent reporting.

4.08pm. CNN analyst says most of Clinton’s strong areas in Texas are “in”; if Obama’s early 60-40 lead in Houston holds up, it will apparently be enough to put him ahead, although he stresses that won’t definitely happen.

4.02pm. Clinton has gained another point in Texas, leading 51-48 with 58 per cent reporting.

3.27pm. Been away from my post for a bit. Clinton has claimed victory in Ohio and is currently delivering a speech making it very clear she’s not about to withdraw. Clinton leads 50-48 in Texas with 46 per cent reporting.

2.46pm. Now 51 per cent of precincts in Ohio and Clinton’s lead has in fact widened a little, to 57-41.

2.33pm. Clinton has caught up with Obama in Texas with 20 per cent of precincts reporting: now 49-all. Her lead is only narrowing slightly in Ohio, now at 56-42 with 47 per cent reporting.

2.14pm. Clinton still leads 57-41 in Ohio with 35 per cent of precincts reporting. Talk in comments suggests a 50-50 result in Cleveland, which I gather was expected to be good for Obama.

2.08pm. Interviewee on Fox Radio notes that Rhode Island exit polls were way out, pointing to a close result when it has actually been a big win for Clinton.

1.50pm. 21 per cent of precincts in Ohio now reporting and Clinton’s earlier lead is almost intact – now 59-39. Texas count has edged up to 6 per cent and Obama’s earlier lead has steadily been whittled away, now down to 51-49.

1.36pm. Clinton still leads 60-38 in Ohio with 14 per cent of precincts reporting.

1.31pm. Claude in comments points out another factor in Ohio being the extension of voting in some counties where Obama is expected to do well.

1.28pm. CNN calls Rhode Island for Clinton, her first win since Super Tuesday.

1.28pm. Al in comments notes no precincts are in from the Ohio cities of Columbus and Cleveland, the former being an Obama-friendly college town.

1.23pm. Huckabee announcing withdrawal. Clinton leads 60-38 in Ohio with 6 per cent counted, but this is presumably with Clinton-friendly areas reporting.

1.10pm. Fox reports that Mike Huckabee has confirmed he will withdraw, but says there are “conflicting reports”.

1.04pm. Obama campaign reportedly feeling upbeat about Ohio, the bad weather having diminished the turnout from older Democrats who favour Clinton. Fox gives McCain a clean sweep of Texas, Ohio, Vermont and Rhode Island.

1.03pm. McCain by all accounts now has enough delegates to secure the nomination.

1.01pm. Via Kevin Rennie, an explanation of the Texas system from New Republic.

12.45pm. I’ve had my eye off the ball for the last 45 minutes. Obama has an early 56-44 lead in Texas, but these are big city precincts where he is expected to do well. I’m not going to pretend to be on top of the Texan primaries-plus-caucuses system: perhaps somebody who is can provide a brief explanation in comments.

11.55am. Exit polls point to a “tight race” in Rhode Island.

11.40am. CBS News reporting a very high turnout by Hispanics in Texas and low turnout of African-Americans, boding well for Clinton.

11.30am (Australian EST). Polls have just closed in Ohio, and Fox News has immediately called Ohio for John McCain but predicted a close result between Clinton and Obama. Vermont is being called for Obama and McCain.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,628 comments on “Texas and Ohio live”

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  1. The Huckster to make a statement shortly: and then there was one Republican. Pressure will be on further for the Dems to sort it out soon.

  2. Based on exit polls, Obama camp predicts he will gain a single digit win on delegates in the four primaries today, with Vermont being a bit part.

  8. William:

    1.04pm. Obama campaign reportedly feeling upbeat about Ohio, the bad weather having diminished the turnout from older Democrats who favour Clinton. Fox gives him a clean sweep of Texas, Ohio, Vermont and Rhode Island.

    The front page of Fox gives McCain a clean sweep, but not Obama.

  9. [‘Fox gives him a clean sweep of Texas, Ohio, Vermont and Rhode Island.’]

    Pretty brave prediction given Hillary is still leading 61-37 in Ohio 🙂

  18. The ‘% counted’ as against the numbers of votes in Texas, is wont to confuse on http://politics.nytimes.com/election-guide/2008/results/states/TX.html and no doubt other sites as well. Thanks to Socrates for explaining the reason (vast numbers of pre-votes).

    If just about bang-on a million votes represented 2% of the Democrat primary in that state, then there would be… oh… about 50 million votes to be counted. In a primary in one state. On them kind of demographics, you’d sure like the chances of whoever won Texas in November, becoming the next President!

  19. Reporting in Ohio is painfully slow with no precincts reporting in the major cities of Columbus and Cleveland, or the smaller cities of Cincinnati and Toledo.

  27. Voting in Obama friendly Cleveland (some polling places) has been extended by an hour so I’d expect the final Ohio result to be narrower than currently being reported.

  28. Unless the trend changes there is no way Clinton will drop out after tonight. Rhode Island is too small to matter but if she wins it plus Ohio and reduces Obama’s delegate in any way she will say she still ahs a chance. Note that for Dems, there are more delegates at stake in Ohio (160) than Texas (130).

    It will be interesting to see what happens with the Caucus delegates in Texas. In the past Obama has done very well at caucuses, but Clinton will fire another campaign director if she doesn’t do better in this one after all the time and money they have spend in Texas.

  29. There appears to be a legal stoush brewing around the Texas caucus process. All the democrats need. This is getting very ugly.

  31. Just a guess, but does the initial big lead of Obama in Texas, which appears to be getting whittled down as counting progresses, indicate he did well with the large number of pre-polled voters, but that bad publicity of him in recent days (NAFTA) has soured his appeal with those actually casting votes today?

  32. NYT seems internally inconsistent on Texas – map looks far better for Clinton than overall numbers indicate.
    Nevertheless if one takes the map at face value then Obama is (perhaps expectedly) miles in front in the key urban areas Houston, Dallas, Fort Worth – but with very low proportions reported – lower than across the rest of the state.
    If this is correct it’s bad news for Hillary, especially as she’s already behind (apparently).

  33. And McCain now has until now to November to campaign, gives the Republicans a head start and they’ll need it to hang onto the Whitehouse…

    Question is who will McCain pick as VP?
    Hopefully Condi Rice or Colin Powell!

  40. Further to Claude’s comment there is (not surprisingly) nothing reported at all in Ohio urban areas yet.
    I don’t think Ohio’s over at this stage.

  43. If not for Dallas and Austin Obama would have no lead at all in Texas…i suspect the black vote has something to do with his leads in the big cities.

  45. Dyno

    Its not that simple in Texas. The early lead for Obama included a lot of pre-poll votes. Texas also has large hispanic communities in their big cities that have favoured Clinton in other States. I think it will be quite close in Texas.

  49. Asanque

    You are right; I misunderstood the CNN site. Ohio has 168 Dem delegates. Texas has a total of 228 when you include the caucus.

    That being said, I still don’t think Clinton will drop out if she wins either of Ohio or Texas tonight.

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