Newspoll: 63-37; Nelson preferred PM 7 per cent

The Australian reports Newspoll has Labor ahead 63-37 on two-party preferred, with Brendan Nelson’s preferred Prime Minister rating down a further 2 per cent from last fortnight’s headline-grabbing 9 per cent. More to follow.

UPDATE: Two-party records on the Newspoll site only go back to January 1996 (the company goes back to 1985); before tonight the best result was Labor’s 61-39 from 16-18 March 2007, the top six all coming from Rudd’s killer run from March to October last year. The Coalition’s best result was 56.5-43.5 from 5-7 October 2001.

UPDATE 2: Graphic here. Kevin Rudd’s approval rating is at 69 per cent, up 1 per cent to beat the record he set a fortnight ago. John Howard’s best ratings were 67 per cent from 10-12 May 1996, and 65 per cent recorded in the aftermath of the Bali bombing on 1-3 November 2002. Pollsters other than Newspoll had Bob Hawke over 70 per cent in 1983-84. I have derived two-party figures for Newspoll from 1985 to 1995 using preference distributions from the preceding election, and none comes close to 63-37. The Coalition’s best result was 59.9-40.1 from 20-22 August 1993, immediately following John Dawkins’ horror post-election budget. Labor’s was 58.0-42.0 from 12-14 June 1987, at the onset of the campaign for the July 11 election.

UPDATE 3: Rather embarrassingly, this post originally claimed Brendan Nelson’s approval rating was 7 per cent. This figure is in fact his preferred prime minister rating. Nelson’s approval rating is 29 per cent, which is not much to write home about but nowhere near the record-setting level of his preferred PM rating.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

836 comments on “Newspoll: 63-37; Nelson preferred PM 7 per cent”

Comments Page 14 of 17
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  1. Oops. Your 555. Not BB, Harry.

    Dear me. Do apologise.

    Re your 648, only reality will smack them in the chops.

    Too bad it is such a long time to budget day.

    But not so long to the resumption of Parliament.

    Where, I anticipate, the Optional Opposition will find itself smartly smacked.

  2. It’s all part of the fun, Harry. In the Queensland Parliament the opposition rushes in with a question based on whatever story made the headlines in the ‘Curious Snail’ that morning. After about three questions they are redfaced, squirming in their seats and thoroughly embarrassed. They have adopted this as standard practice for years and get the same result every time and never learn. They just don’t understand the ability the government has to gather information to refute their arguments.

  7. At 653

    ‘She said she had come to rely on the money, which was the only windfall she has received in 10 years of caring for her husband, who suffers from Parkinson’s disease, as well as her 38-year-old intellectually disabled daughter’.

    Precisely. Windfall. Depending upon the tree the former Government chose to shake.

    Not ongoing. Nothing fixed. Nothing sure.

    I cannot wait for the Rudd Government to put in place ongoing certainty.

  8. 655 Yes glen delivered those talking points with appropriate gravitas and accompanied by the crocodile tears earlier.

  9. [Not ongoing. Nothing fixed. Nothing sure.]

    Exactly my point – this “Windfall” is an insult for what carers have to deal with 24/7/52 – they should be getting a meaningfull benefit ALL year round, not $98 per fortnight for the Carers Allowance (don’t know how much Per Fortnight the Carers Payment is) PLUS the “$1600” bonus – which I might add the majority of carers don’t get, especially those who don’t qualify for the Carers Payment.

    I cannot wait for the Rudd Government to put in place ongoing certainty.

    Hear Hear.

  10. S’O.K Crickey, I’d figured that out. I’ve just got myself in a total lather tonight. Family gathering for the first time for ages. Good gathering. Can we count the ways in which we hate the the the…. unspeakable Howard believers. Though we think the youngest has only just got it, courtesy of a stint in a mine.
    Onya, Steve, ta. You’re quite right.

  12. 661 Frank, what a joke where have these people been hiding for the past twelve years? Funny how what they managed to put on the backburner for twelve years is suddenly a downright necessity.

    “Liberal senator Gary Humphries, who was chairman of the committee until the change of government, said he had been “personally swayed” by evidence that the single pension was too far below that of the couples’ payment.

    “Personally, I think there was a pretty good case made out during the hearings that there is a problem with the single pension being set at the rate it is at the moment,” he said.

    “I think the cost of living as a single person isn’t that much short of the cost that a couple incurs.”

    Another Liberal committee member Sue Boyce said the inquiry had heard strong evidence arguing that the single pension, currently set at 60 per cent of the couples’ rate, should be lifted, possibly to 65 per cent.

    “I think it’s quite likely that we would recommend an increase,” she said.”

  13. I love this Comment

    [Pensioner of 5:43pm today; Spot on, well said. People like Bill grieve mouth off without having a clue as to what they are talking about. The Howard government always looked after the pensioners much better than the previous Labor Government, and not just at election time. I suggest you chew over the following figures Mr Grieve. National Respite for Carer’s Programme under previous Labor government (96/97) $19 million, under Howard government (07/08) $ 175 million. This is an increase of 89%, or allowing for inflation 79.30%. The money for the carers programme has already been alloted by the previous government, any adjustment to this, is simply robbing the most vulnerable, and puts the lie to Jenny Macklin’s claim. “I can really understand that but there is a Budget process we have to go through and I just can’t pre-empt discussions that are going on.” Hello Jenny ; the money has already been accounted for, please stop your kite flying.
    Posted by: Tom Griffin Q.B.C. of Lochiel N.S.W. 11:14pm today ]

    http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/story/0,23739,23340406-953,00.html

    Umm, Welfare to Work anyone ??????

  14. Steve@662:

    Totally agree – Howard and his Cronies vilified Pensioners as “Bad Back Merchants” etc and did their upmost kick people of the Disability Support Pension etc, yet all of a sudden, they’ve seen the light and want to help them.

    Oh and I’m pretty sure that if you don’t get a Disability Support Pension or child disability allowance, then the person caring for you doesn’t qualify for any payment.

  15. Nothing like a stint at the coalface, Harry.

    As also the Opposition are learning.

    Pleasing that your family gathering worked.

  18. I can’t believe that the new gov’t will do anything other that a complete revamp
    of the welare system. Why wouldn’t you? It’s currently a dog’s breakfast, with poor if any coordination between the States and the Feds. However, it’s going to be a bonzer do da day of shit fighting, I can tell you. The State Health mob in Vic. are, I can tell you with the immediate experience of having to deal with them, short as 2 short planks. It’s not their political masters who are the problems; it’s those between, who can be either enablers or stoppers. It’s one of those times when I hope the people we’ve elected have enough smarts to bang the right heads together.

  19. Jeez, Crickey, I’m back at the coal face every day. I thought I told you my iffy joke about how when women used to toil over hot stoves back in the old days, but now we sweat over hot relationships. O.k. It ain’t funny.

  20. The ALP Policy Statement, as regards Disabilty and Carers, points exactly to that revamp, Harry.

    Have not read, but will, their overall intentions.

    The bashing of heads, short as they are, will present a problem.

    The unneeded running on the old agenda, as presented by the MSM, is hardly helpful.

    It would be so helpful, for once, if they actually got behind real reform.

  24. Steve @ 606, what a great read, makes their economic manager credentials look pretty tacky now. It was all spin but a few of us saw through it!

  25. Basil Fawlty, I think that Sham-I-am has accidentally released the second tiger of his illustrious career. The first was by attacking Beasley’s polling figures to ensure Rudd won the Prime Ministership.

    Now he has unleashed the categorical and unpalatable truth that the coalition were far from being good economic managers in any sense of the word but a team of incompetents who should never have been allowed to be in government.

    On both occasions Sham-I-am thought he was helping the coalition out as he set them up to be smashed.

  26. Why does the term ‘Lambs to the slaughter’ come to mind when I note that the next meeting of parliament is on Tuesday?

  27. onimod @ 454 – Don’t judge us christians on the actions of George W Bush and John W Bush oops Howard. Stating that one is a christian is an easy way of getting votes from a large body of people. To put it another way – do you explicitly trust every thing that JWH says?

    I myself am an Anglican and I can tell you now that the Anglican and Catholic churches are an extreeeemely long way from garnering support for Howards policies, but this cannot, of course, be said for all members of those churches. There is a famous saying attrbuted to St Francis that goes something like “I will preach the word of the Lord all of my life and, if necessary, use words”. This is basically a belief that actions speak louder than words.

    Tom

  28. What next do you think the press will come out with to scare people re spending cuts. All based on “insiders” accounts. No proof. Then when the government denies it, it is headlined as a backflip or backdown. Create a paper tiger then destroy it. Amazing stuff we are seeing at the moment. The latest being the plastic bags issue.

  29. Milne in the Adelaide Sunday Mail says that “Prime Minister Kevin Rudd has been forced to back down from Budget plans to axe the $500 seniors bonus payment and the $1600 carers’ payment”. Methinks its more likely that Milne is backing down on behalf of his News Ltd colleagues who brought this matter up in the first place.

  30. Gary at 678. I was typing my post (679) and did’nt notice what you had posted but what you wrote encapsulated my thoughts precisely and you put it much more articulately than I did.

  31. 680 Enjaybee – thanks for that. I notice Rudd HAS said they are thinking of getting rid of the ex politicians’ gold card. Now I’m waiting for the first ex politician to put his/her head up to have it shot off.

  32. I really think the conservative press are out to help their “boys” seeing that they are being creamed in the public’s mind at the moment. They’re out to make Rudd look bad.

  33. “Brendan’s got the full support of the party room and all of the team, including myself,” Mr Turnbull told the Nine Network today.

    the kiss of death.

  34. Gary Bruce

    I’m not sure that this disinformation campaign by the Opposition Orifice will help the Lib-Lads at all…in fact I see it backfiring.

    It is going to be interesting in Parliament on Tuesday, as Steve has posted…pass the gravy!

  36. OK, I know I’m days behind, having left the reading of the blog til Sunday Breakfast, but let me clear up the $1600 bit.

    Anyone caring for a disabled adult or child is entitled to the Carer’s Allowance, currently around $100 pf, not means tested. Carers who recieve the Allowance generally get the bonus of $600.

    The Carer Payment is income support (pension) for carers who care for people full time. It is both means tested, and time tested – you are allowed 25 hours non-caring time per week (ie you can work or study part time), and some days respite/hospital per year. Carers who receive the Payment get the bonus of $1000.

    Now, people who are eligable for the Allowance are not necessarily eligable for the Payment, but those that get the Payment are also entitled to the Allowance. Ergo, Carers on the Carer Payment get a bonus of $1600.

    Did I say ‘bonus’? We’ve been calling it ‘the bribe money’ for a while now. While I really hate the fact that the real needs of carers are not addressed, the bribe was very useful for those things we would never other wise have, in my case a wahing machine that doesn’t wake the dead, a fridge that isn’t old enough to be a parent to my children, real dental care. I really resent the fact that we are accused of using for plasma tvs. And the idea that people paying 30% of their income are in rental/mortgage stress! I would like some of that stress. The cheap and nasty place I rent takes half my and my teenage daughter combined pensions.

  37. “#
    477
    Frank Calabrese Says:
    March 7th, 2008 at 8:38 pm

    What a trainwreck that Today Tonight Story was – the first woman bought a WASHING MACHINE with her $1000 – I thought the bonus was for day to day stuff for the caree.”

    This is exactly the kind of comment that pisses me off! Who’s washing do you think the Carer is doing? In what parallel universe is a washing machine not meeting the day to day needs of the caree?

  38. 685 steve – It’s just amazing stuff isn’t it? Report what you like and have the government confirm or deny it. Talk about muck raking fishing expeditions.

  39. Too much more of this nonsense and thy could be putting big advertising dollars at risk. After all the AFR does have a Saturday edition and plenty of other more ethical newspapers could always do business with the Government. Or they could just advertise online.

  40. Frank Calabrese at 659

    The Carer payment is the same amount as the disability payment.
    From a letter received last week, myself and the person I care for will get $500 each year (paid quarterly $125) as a utility allowance and it is to be permanently. Neither of us were eligible until now. The $1000 and $600 bribe money was only ever a one off, the first one was an election bribe in 2004, the rest were to make themselves look good each time they handed down a budget!!

  42. [Too much more of this nonsense and thy could be putting big advertising dollars at risk. After all the AFR does have a Saturday edition and plenty of other more ethical newspapers could always do business with the Government. Or they could just advertise online.]

    And a Minister for Communications who may decide to change the media laws so as to disadvantage Murdoch and Co 🙂

  44. Love this comment from the Sunday Crimes “Editorial”

    [Well thankyou Mr.Nelson for the inaccurate editorial, now can you hand the paper back to it’s owners. To say this is a beat up is being kind to it. Where’s your proof that the government is even contemplating it. I haven’t seen any yet.
    Posted by: Gary of Melbourne 8:20pm March 08, 2008 ]

    btw, the Editor is Sam Weir.

  45. All this stuff (rumours, etc) is just what happens to Governments – all of them.
    Don’t know why everyone is so much up in arms about it.

  46. It would be nice if there was even a half truth behind them Dyno but they are so far off the planet that it is ludicrous.

  47. Looks like Pies is back on the white powder again.

    [Deputy Prime Minister Julia Gillard hasn’t shown the same disloyalty and disregard for her supporters, and one powerful ALP figure told me that if the party had to choose now between Rudd and Gillard as leader, Gillard would win in a landslide. ]

    And this…..

    [It’s clear he had a far greater degree of contact with disgraced former West Australian premier Brian Burke than he is willing to admit, and it’s becoming obvious he has turned a blind eye to the ethics of Labor’s fund-raising efforts – none more so than in NSW. ]

    http://blogs.news.com.au/dailytelegraph/piersakerman/index.php/dailytelegraph/comments/so_mr_rudd_wheres_the_cash/

    It looks like Pies has been left so far out of the loop, that he is reduced to making up issues to try and appear relevant.

    In this regard, he is clearly failing miserably. Time to look for another job, methinks. JA, Bolter, Dennis and a number of others are in the same position. Totally irrevelant and likely to be increasingly ignored if they continue in putting forward trash as ‘informed’ opinion.

  48. [In this regard, he is clearly failing miserably. Time to look for another job, methinks. JA, Bolter, Dennis and a number of others are in the same position. Totally irrevelant and likely to be increasingly ignored if they continue in putting forward trash as ‘informed’ opinion.]

    But it’s cheap fodder for the clueless and Talkback radio.

    And the ABC has been cowered into submission by JA and Windschuttle on the Board, that they also use News Ltd Talking points as legitimate news.

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