The Australian reports Newspoll has Labor ahead 63-37 on two-party preferred, with Brendan Nelson’s preferred Prime Minister rating down a further 2 per cent from last fortnight’s headline-grabbing 9 per cent. More to follow.
UPDATE: Two-party records on the Newspoll site only go back to January 1996 (the company goes back to 1985); before tonight the best result was Labor’s 61-39 from 16-18 March 2007, the top six all coming from Rudd’s killer run from March to October last year. The Coalition’s best result was 56.5-43.5 from 5-7 October 2001.
UPDATE 2: Graphic here. Kevin Rudd’s approval rating is at 69 per cent, up 1 per cent to beat the record he set a fortnight ago. John Howard’s best ratings were 67 per cent from 10-12 May 1996, and 65 per cent recorded in the aftermath of the Bali bombing on 1-3 November 2002. Pollsters other than Newspoll had Bob Hawke over 70 per cent in 1983-84. I have derived two-party figures for Newspoll from 1985 to 1995 using preference distributions from the preceding election, and none comes close to 63-37. The Coalition’s best result was 59.9-40.1 from 20-22 August 1993, immediately following John Dawkins’ horror post-election budget. Labor’s was 58.0-42.0 from 12-14 June 1987, at the onset of the campaign for the July 11 election.
UPDATE 3: Rather embarrassingly, this post originally claimed Brendan Nelson’s approval rating was 7 per cent. This figure is in fact his preferred prime minister rating. Nelson’s approval rating is 29 per cent, which is not much to write home about but nowhere near the record-setting level of his preferred PM rating.
7%. Turnbull must be thanking his lucky stars he lost the leadership ballot.
There is actually 7% of the population that supports Nelson. Bullbutter.
I find Nelson to be a bit of a schmuck, but now I’m almost feeling sorry for the guy.
Brendon
Ooh…7
You can kiss the chance of a Liberal byelection win goodbye for a few months…… Costello and Downer might have to get used to those back bench seats for a little longer.
He’s as popular as the interest rate. Tomorrow, less so.
The trouble for Turnbull and his party is that the next election might see them blown off the political map altogether which would make his chances of EVER being in government again let alone becoming PM nothing but than a dream.
Dear, oh, dear, poor, poor Nelson!!!
Damn – and here I was thinking Night Watchman was a good nick for Nelson because that’s what number 9(%) batsman do.
But who sends number 7 into that role!
Fair dinkum – these guys need to be more considerate.
Record breaking stuff folks – 63 is the highest headline poll figure anywhere over the last 20 odd years from a quick squiz at the database, and 7% is just ammo for humour.
So let me get this straight…
Line 10 people up.
7 prefer Kevin Rudd as PM, 3 people prefer someone else (except for one recalcitrant leg which prefers Brendan Nelson).
Note my new “update”: 2PP is easily a Newspoll record, going back to 1996.
I wouldn’t be surprised if Costello chose to stick it right up the party by quitting in the very near future regardless. He might not give a toss about the result of a byelection as he feels totally duped.
Nelson’s honeymoon period with the voters seems to be over. He peaked at 11% and it’s all downhill from here. And a drop from 11% down to 7% is definitely “stormed”. The MOE is going to approach zero soon, as the chance of finding an Australian who will actually say they prefer the Nightwatchman as PM becomes as remote as a monkey randomly typing The Wasteland. Dennis Shamaham has some serious humble pie to eat and I’m going to enjoy watching Possum serve it up for him!
Thanks Possum, I was wondering if 63 was a record for Newspoll.
The conclusion: This is no ordinary rebuilding phase for a recently defeated government. The Coalition is in dire straits. Only the most hardcore, die hard supporters are left clinging to the battered ship, and even some of those are dropping off as each week passes. And this is despite a number of interest rate rises.
Anyone care to take a stab at how Sham-I-am will try and spin THAT.
On another note the Rudbot’s humanity chip seems to be getting daily upgrades – who would have though common sense could be so popular eh?
By the way – has anyone else here been tracking what’s going on at the NCA in Canberra? I heard some mildly encouraging news today that makes me think there’s more than just politics going on. If no-one else is interested than I’ll leave it alone.
Mr 7% – Why does this man bother?
To Chris B #2
Is Nelson’s ratings within the margin of error of Dennis Shanahan? It could be 0% approval.
Amazing, another significant movement in the Locum’s PPM statistic!
Maybe we should just call him PPM (Parts Per Million!).
12
Diogenes
Some honeymoon! He didn’t get so much as a peck on the cheek let alone a roll in the hay before he was consigned to the dog house.
Gawd Almighty, the Libs. might as well just shoot themselves. Nice on top of the stuff on the redoutable Joh Bjelke Peterson’s reign in Q/L/D..
15
onimod
I’m interested. What have you heard?
Bjelke Peterson was so stupid that even though he was undoubtedly corrupt he had very little to show for it. Gough was right when he called him a BBB.
Why not let Dolly and Cossie quit and lose the two by-elections? It gives them an excuse to shaft Nelson when they lose two unloseable seats. My info is that Dolly’s “boutique advisory company” is a done deal and he’s going to quit soon no matter what.
And the libs took the p#ss out of Crean……hahahahaha
Everything the Liberals have done this year actually makes sense in the prism that find themselves. The whole “Cardboard Kevin” and Nelson’s woeful Sorry address were both not aimed at the 63%. It was aimed the 37% or so, the die hards who are the only source of funds and the only one’s who are going to man the phones in party HQ. These are extremely dark days for Menzies’ party who are fast becoming their own forgotten people. It must be absolutely heartbreaking for those who have right wing TB*.
* As a former Left wing TB (true believerism) sufferer, I have had my share of dark days. On a purely emotional level, I do feel sorry for them as it does make you feel like s***.
Simon the Mighty compared to Brendon the Mild.
onimod Says: If no-one else is interested than I’ll leave it alone.
I am..spill
Looking on the bright side in this sea of negativity, at least the nightwatchman is 7% above the figure where the Liberals would be tempted to dump him!
Steve @ 12 – I’m still not convince Cossie is going, and nor is his little mate Milne. As I see it there have been no offers, lucrative or otherwise, from the big end of town and there probably will be few calls for a junior barrister in tawdry anti union bashing cases, so he may think hanging around on the off chance that the party will draft him as leader in sheer desperation is the best of a poor lot of options.
And re the other thread:
Dual or duel, maybe Milne has finally sobered up enough to realise his mate Cossie is stuffed so he’d better start mending fences with the new (gender neutral) blokes. However, I suspect there’ll be many frigid days in Hell before that happens.
Steve – what’s your connection – I’m a local in the building industry….
I found a connected experienced local who has just been hired (yep – hired, not fired) who gave me a lot of confidence that the current actions will be swift, direct and the outcome will provide more certainty, though possibly less scope. None of this is direct, of course – he can’t talk openly and I don’t fell the need to put words into his mouth.
My initial view was that the actions were a little bit of a blight on the Rudd team as it was so apparently politically biased. Of course there’s a little resistance to the inquiry and it’s terms, but it’s my impression that the outcome has basically been predetermined, to the point of preliminary implementation already starting.
One of my long shot guesses (and there’s no evidence yet, is that the remnants of the NCA will be under the wing of either Infrastructure (Albanese) or PM&C.
A lot of this is educated guesses and supposition – do you (or anyone else) have anything to add?
those of us who predicted 100 Labour seats were only a month or so out lol
incumbency should never again be underestimated in this country of easily porked and worked electorates.
24
B.S. Fairman
What you say is true and I also have some sympathy for the grass roots Lib supporters seeing their party in this state. But it should be remembered that Howard turned the parliamentary party into a nasty,divisive organisation that stomped on decency all in the name of winning. At least I can say that my party never stooped to that level whether they were on top of the mountain or wallowing through their darkest nights. If they had destroyed decency in order to win I would have dropped off in double quick time. That’s probably what’s happened here with Rudd’s popularity and the Libs being on the nose.
I wonder what Bob Brown’s preferred leader percentage would be if he was included in the question?
I wonder what Humphrey Bear’s preferred leader percentage would be if he was included in the question?
Costello will want to hide away in a corner while interest rates are still rising and housing afford-ability…..etc.
If he took the job he will have made his career one of being used from beginning to end and, tossed out like a rag doll at the end when Rudd thrashes is backside at the next election.
Only fool would take the job now… Julie?
I think there might be a lesson for the Libs here about playing golf instead of being in parliament and behaving like a disorganised spoilt rabble instead of doing their work on Fridays. With Hockey promising more of the same we can expect future Newspolls to serve up more of the same.
28
MayoFeral
I’m not convinced that the smirk is going to quit either – but when I see him on the back benches and thinking how irrelevant he must now feel as no one cares what he has to say on just about any subject then attending parliament must be like some horrible punishment.
Does anyone know when his Super ‘matures’? That would have to be a critical date if he’s not in demand in the business world. Nelson says he knows what Costello intends to do but it’s not up to him to say – he’ll leave that to Costello himself. If that’s true then there’s no way Costello intends to stay.
Diogenes @ 22 – With Dolly on board, how long do you give the “boutique advisory company”? My bet, 24 months, max, assuming neither Smith or Bolkus plant an axe in Dolly’s skull, or their own, through sheer frustration with him before it goes belly up.
If it was me, I’d rather do business with Brian Burke. He may have an ‘interesting’ past but at least he’s passably competent.
Further update added: “Kevin Rudd’s approval rating is at 69 per cent, up 1 per cent to beat the record he set a fortnight ago. John Howard’s best ratings were 67 per cent from 10-12 May 1996 (at a rather similar stage of the game to this poll, the election having been on March 2), and 65 per cent recorded in the aftermath of the Bali bombing on 1-3 November 2002. Pollsters other than Newspoll had Bob Hawke over 70 per cent in 1983-84. I have derived two-party figures for Newspoll from 1985 to 1995 using preference distributions from the preceding election, and none comes close to 63-37. The Coalition’s best result was 59.9-40.1 from 20-22 August 1993, immediately following John Dawkins’ horror post-election budget. Labor’s was 58.0-42.0 from 12-14 June 1987, at the onset of the campaign for the July 11 election.”
far out, unbelievable!
Yes, I am gleeful, gloating. Do feel for Fibs TBs, but they let that nasty little suburban solicitor corrupt their party and they let him so they could be in power. So stuff them.
Steve K,
i read a while ago that Tip’s super matures somewhere around the end of March this year
If no one challenges Nelson next week at the first party meeting, then we’ll really see how piss weak they really all are.
When faced with the downward slide, I’ll bet none of them have the guts to put the party ahead of themselves
Morgan and Newspoll telling a consistent story and revealing the true size of the rusted on Liberal vote.
onimod. I’m not sure what your’re trying to suss out here. If it’s the building regs. him self indoors is quite happy to help; if it the Serfchoices legislation in all it’s wonderful manifestations, send me an email via William. I’m not sure I can help with Serfchoices, it’s an absolute dog.
Don’t you love those hyphens next to Howard’s name in the poll? So good to see the back of him and to see his house of cards come tumbling down.
Well, this is a devastating result for the Liberals. I suspect a leadership change will be forthcoming in the near future.
Hey, William,
[ Brendan Nelson’s approval rating down a further 2 per cent from last year’s headline-grabbing 9 per cent. ]
You mean “last months” 9% don’t you.
Cheers, Scorpio
No 46
He means “last month’s”. I dare say many of you are in desperate need of English lessons. 😉
Bah!
These ephemeral results aren’t as meaningful as you gloaty little lefties like to think.
The gloss will wear off in around 2-5 years. Just wait.
I also reckon voters will tire rather quickly from living in what is essentially a one party also state.
Blair’s New Labour (which won government by far larger margin) enjoyed leads just as massive for far longer. The Conservatives are now in a winning position.
Don’t think Rudd’s meagre win on election day (and honeymoon poll results) is some sign that the entirety of Australia has opted to subsribe to Green-Left weekly.
No Scorpio, the previous Newspoll was Feb 15-17. It was only “monthly” in that it held its first post-election poll on Jan 18-20 and didn’t follow it up until mid-February. I assume they’re back to fortnightly now.
Denise Shaman’s likely spin in tomorrow’s A*se of the Nation:
HEADLINE: Ghost of Howard keeps promise despite Election loss – Approval ratings will always be lower under a Coalition Opposition