Newspoll: 63-37; Nelson preferred PM 7 per cent

The Australian reports Newspoll has Labor ahead 63-37 on two-party preferred, with Brendan Nelson’s preferred Prime Minister rating down a further 2 per cent from last fortnight’s headline-grabbing 9 per cent. More to follow.

UPDATE: Two-party records on the Newspoll site only go back to January 1996 (the company goes back to 1985); before tonight the best result was Labor’s 61-39 from 16-18 March 2007, the top six all coming from Rudd’s killer run from March to October last year. The Coalition’s best result was 56.5-43.5 from 5-7 October 2001.

UPDATE 2: Graphic here. Kevin Rudd’s approval rating is at 69 per cent, up 1 per cent to beat the record he set a fortnight ago. John Howard’s best ratings were 67 per cent from 10-12 May 1996, and 65 per cent recorded in the aftermath of the Bali bombing on 1-3 November 2002. Pollsters other than Newspoll had Bob Hawke over 70 per cent in 1983-84. I have derived two-party figures for Newspoll from 1985 to 1995 using preference distributions from the preceding election, and none comes close to 63-37. The Coalition’s best result was 59.9-40.1 from 20-22 August 1993, immediately following John Dawkins’ horror post-election budget. Labor’s was 58.0-42.0 from 12-14 June 1987, at the onset of the campaign for the July 11 election.

UPDATE 3: Rather embarrassingly, this post originally claimed Brendan Nelson’s approval rating was 7 per cent. This figure is in fact his preferred prime minister rating. Nelson’s approval rating is 29 per cent, which is not much to write home about but nowhere near the record-setting level of his preferred PM rating.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

836 comments on “Newspoll: 63-37; Nelson preferred PM 7 per cent”

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  1. As DeeCee on ozforums.com.au points out it is even worse, the missing member for Higgins was quoted as saying the annualisation was per household. (although as usual his words were open to many interpretations).

    So sorry you people who maybe got upto $1600 our policy is you get $500.

    I posted this on shamahams blog at 11:00 am. Guess what. 🙁

  2. On the ABC, how long before we can get rid of Madam Lash Albrechtsen and co and while we are at it that disgusting creep Christopher Pearson from SBS. New broom and all that!

  3. 601

    Hey, it was the same for me.

    In the scheme of things there is three stories…one side and the other side and the truth…that will come back to bite the kite flyers.

  4. I have sent a couple of emails to Madonna King – ABC Brisbane morning presenter asking her to clarify the situation.

    Ha fat chance – she writes for the News Ltd Courier Mail in fact shes married to the editor.

    She needs to either come clean or ship out.

    Brisbane has one paper – so all major political news is filtered through Ms King and David Fagan.

    Aha a new mission. 🙂

  7. 604 [I see a future in the Brisbane Times…would I be mistaken Steve???]

    Huh? The Brisbane Times is only an online paper not a crystal ball.

  8. Sheesh! What a beat up!

    The Optional Oppostion sure knows how to mire themselves further.

    First off, they expose their selfish, inadequate bribery, then set out to scare even the most should be level headed heads of organisations.

    Who ought to know better.

    Clearly influenced still by the hand to mouth at election day bribes they have suffered for a decade. And easily panicked. Especially at the hands of the media. Which has sought to inflame fear.

    Delighted that Kev, as you above have said, has said ‘no way’.

    Not that it will shut the media up.

  9. 608 Crikey Whitey, I think Dennis has set Nelson up for a sucker punch in Parliament next week. I think ‘the Sham’ might be a Turnbull supporter and want to put Nelson in an embarrassing position.

  10. Gosh, Steve..that is arcane, indeed. Yet I doubt that Dennis is that astute.

    I think that the Libs have set themselves up for a sucker punch, as you put it.

    Flying their ancient, tattered kites, sure to plummet.

  12. Glen should be pleased.

    Julie Bishop is to be on “Insiders” tomorrow.

    I was going to be uncharitable and describe how I believe it will all unfold in Glen’s household in the morning, but I think it would be better left to others imaginations.

  13. However, tactics matter. Kev is out of the country at the very time these attacks are launched. Funny, that.

    When Kev was first out of the country, Julia was the Acting PM.

    Logically she is, I suppose, now.

    So she should be out there, employing her articulate, measured arrows, to calm this hysteria.

    The Adelaide Festival is showing a play of the Dunstan years.

    Lesson. Don at the barricades, calming the population.

    The potential run on Adelaide Bank.

    The necessity of holding back the imminent tidal wave at Glenelg, Canute like.

  14. [First off, they expose their selfish, inadequate bribery, then set out to scare even the most should be level headed heads of organisations.]

    I note that ACOSS didn’t make any comment, which should say a lot about e truthfulness of the original article, nor did the Carers Alliance political party who ran candidates at the last election and whose website hasn’t been updated since the 20th of November.

  16. Yes, Frank.

    Most organisations are not engaged. Nor possibly asked their opinion.

    Brotherhood of St Lawrence, for one, perhaps the foremost public critic of Howard’s policies.

    The media will have scrounged around, feeding on those they can encourage to buy in.

  17. Have just heard of someone who was disenfranchised from prepoll voting in the City Council elections next week. He is flying o/s tomorrow but wasn’t allowed to vote at the Brisbane city Hall booth because they only allow voting on weekdays.

  18. [The media will have scrounged around, feeding on those they can encourage to buy in.]

    And note that they found the carers of the multiple disabilities to interview, mostly with autism I notice (I’m not being dispariging, I have both a nephew and great niece with that problem). I reckon these people were “recommended” by the relevent carers bodies who did comment, as there is no listing for “people with disabilities for media appearances” in the phone book.

  19. ruawake mentioned earlier the Courier Mail but I must say this article puts a good light on it all for Kev.
    http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/story/0,23739,23340406-952,00.html
    Just a quote by Kev, “What I can say to carers and pensioners right across Australia (is) there is no way on God’s earth that I intend to leave them in the lurch.
    “Right now, we are engaged in a budget process where everything is being debated in preparation for the upcoming budget,” Mr Rudd said.
    “What I can say to carers and pensioners right across Australia (is) there is no way on God’s earth that I intend to leave them in the lurch.
    “I will say to carers and pensioners across Australia that as a Labor government we are there to extend a helping hand to those in need, and not to push them to one side as if they are unimportant – they are not.”
    Boy, doesn’t that put the lie to all of this BS?

  20. Frank. Makes one question the agenda of the responding organisations.

    If they are not apolitical, their constituents need to ask a few questions.

  22. [Frank. Makes one question the agenda of the responding organisations.

    If they are not apolitical, their constituents need to ask a few questions.]

    Remember, Howard introduced legislation to basically strip funding to any non-government body who dared criticised it.

  25. The Dwarf is suggesting that Turnbull won’t be able be stop himself and will take over. I think Hockey would be a really good choice. I thought Cossie might give it a thought but if the Milne hasn’t mentioned him as a possible, Cossie must have really spat the dummy.

  27. Talk about a rort.

    I should add that the Carers Payment is meanstest, while the Carers Allowance isn’t.

    Really it should be one payment for ALL Carers.

    [A regular windfall

    Almost 400,000 Australians have received the Carer’s Bonus for the past four years.

    The bonus paid $1000 to carer payment recipients and $600 to carer allowance recipients. Because many households received both payments, the bonus had become a regular $1600 windfall. ]

    http://www.news.com.au/perthnow/story/0,21598,23334176-949,00.html

  28. 625 Diogenes – Hockey has so much baggage. The government would have a field day with his IR (Workchoices) background. I can see the ads now for the next election.

  29. Gary Bruce @ 621

    Frank Calabrese – who writes those editorials for that rag, Tuckey?

    Probably, but he’s on a boat at the moment giving lectures on everything he knows about growing wheat, and global warming. Who would have guessed that an ex publican, part time crim brawler and sometimes politician was an expert on them subjects. Bit of a dark horse is ‘our’ Wilson. On the downside, it keeps the lectures short which means the old dears he’s hectoring regaling with his vast knowledge miss out on a well deserved kip.

    I’m guessing Ironbar has engaged a ghost writer while he’s away. Probably a work experience lad from the Young Libs. Glen? 😉

  30. We may well need a second nightwatchman after this performance from the News corp stable and Brendan Nelson. There is no way that this story will not be throughly discredited by the end of the sitting day on Tuesday.

    Swan and Rudd will see this as an affront to everything they stand for and believe in. I doubt whether Nelson will have ever seen a storm brewing like this one. It is hard to see Nelson surviving when it is time for Shanahan and himself to eat humble pie over this beatup.

  33. The fact is, Frank, that the Allowance/Benefit/Pension, add to that what you may, is so distorted as to be incomprehensible.

    Or any other of the systems.

    Overloaded with political twists and turns, voter buy jump starts, which have gone on year after year.

    My sister in law who works in the Tax Department, has collisions of knowledge between Centrelink, Tax, Family Benefit and Allowances, Family Maintenance.

    She spends a good deal of time working and worrying her way through the damned intricacies. Challenging Centrelink officers, who make the most stupid and wrong of statements as to entitlements.

    Not to mention a certain Centrelink attitude!

    Which I will be sure to continue ranting about, to Kev,

  34. It looks like the Libs have taken their tactics here straight out of the Queensland Liberals handbook. Unfortunately for them the results are always messier and less effective than the potential for damaging the Government that they always dream of inflicting. It will all end in tears and Leadership instability for the Liberals I’m afraid, we’ve seen this sort of thing tried and failed too many times in the past.

    The next Newspoll for Nelson will make the last one positively encouraging.

  36. I love the “honeymoon is over” headlines.

    How many times has Sham-I-Am written just that? And how many times has he been wrong? 100%.

    They’re willing it to happen. Surely they can’t be wrong THIS time? Well, actually…

    Then again, Rudd’s popularity is at a record high for any Prime Minister. Nelson’s is at an all time low, as is his party’s.

    There probably isn’t anywhere for Rudd to go now but down a little. I can hear the crowing even before it’s started.

    Pretty disgusting all the same.

  37. 636 BB just reserve a bit of room for the sitting on Tuesday, it will be a cracker reminiscent of the mudthrowing of the Liberals against Rudd last year.

  38. BB, I think that despite the concerted rubbish from the OO and the hopefully to be re-constucted ABC, that the gov’t and Rudd have already demonstrated, they are disciplined, competent, focussed, and actually mostly know what they’re talking about. Which, when you think about it, is about a zillion miles away from the Opposition.

  39. Did read and note your 555, Bushfire.

    Nelson will obtain an even more minus, in due course, over this absurd and as you say, disgusting, carrion.

  41. Have you noticed that these “outrages” are usually released on a Thursday – which co-incides with when either Newspoll and/or Morgan are polling. What’s the bet that the Opposition Orifice have created this to help Nelson get a good Morgan result ?

  42. [635 Harry ‘Snapper’ Organs – Spot on Harry. Bloody talk radio parrot the OO as well, especially Mitchell on AW.]

    Same here in WA with 6PR – the Breakfast guys have Andrew Bolt on as their “Political Commentator”, which is a bloody joke.

  43. “Same here in WA with 6PR – the Breakfast guys have Andrew Bolt on as their “Political Commentator”, which is a bloody joke.” Here too. Where is the balance? Who do they get on to respond to Bolt? Noone that I can see.

  44. [Here too. Where is the balance? Who do they get on to respond to Bolt? Noone that I can see.]

    And an even bigger joke is that both 6PR and 3AW are now part of Fairax Media, and the bolter is with the enemy at News Ltd.

  46. The only thing of Bolt’s you can agree with is the first sentence: “A little perspective might be in order.”

    What an uncouth, nasty piece of trash. Yeah, the text too.

  47. Wouldn’t it be an amazing coincidence if Newspoll brings out a ‘special’ newspoll on Monday night to prop up the Sham-I-Am’s weekend work.

  48. Hmm, I wonder if it’s time for the posters in the blogoshere to give an almighty smack over the chops to Bolt, the sham. Albrechston and Piers? You could do it at least 2 ways. Either no one ever buys the paper or clicks on one of their pieces ever again, or you storm them every time they write some hideous crap.
    Nah, neither of those things are going to work. Bugger. I don’t know about you lot, but it really, really makes me so angry what the demented rusted on neo-con afficianado shills get paid for.

  49. steve, wouldn’t be surprised at all, but still think the current Gov’t is a good deal smarter than what’s on offer in terms of the Opposition. Just cranky about the MSM, myself.

  50. [Wouldn’t it be an amazing coincidence if Newspoll brings out a ’special’ newspoll on Monday night to prop up the Sham-I-Am’s weekend work.]

    Have there been any “Phone in polls” on the East Coast on this ? I’m speaking of Barcelona tonight and A Grimshaw Affair.

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