Morgan: 64.5-35.5

The latest face-to-face Morgan poll shows Labor breaking its record result of a few weeks ago. It now leads 56.5 per cent to 31.5 per cent on the primary vote and 64.5-35.5 on two-party preferred. Morgan also presents us with qualitative findings on perceptions of the two leaders, which gives a strong impression that Brendan Nelson failed to please anybody in attempting to have two bob each way on the stolen generations apology.

Other news:

• The AEC has commenced redistribution proceedings for Western Australia and the Northern Territory. It is likely that no change will be required for the latter; the outlook for the former was earlier canvassed here.

• A transcript of a High Court hearing regarding Labor’s appeal against Fran Bailey’s win in McEwen has been published, the upshot of which appears to be that the matter will be heard in the Federal Court late next month.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

690 comments on “Morgan: 64.5-35.5”

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  1. 496 Basil Fawlty – I’m sure you realise I’m not asking anyone to ban anyone here by what I’ve said at 498.

  3. gee gary

    you are very selective about what and when and with whom you debate

    remember @351
    5 points of discussion
    you answered one point only (3) and then turned and started attacking me.

    i presume from your inabilty to debate the others points that they are totally correct and henceforth i will refer to you as cherrypicker

    anyone willing to front up to the plate re @351?

    or is it a bit close to the truth

  4. Gary,

    Don’t feed trolls. It is the equivalent of arguing with a known dickhead in real life. They beat you every time because they reduce you their level and are far better at being a dickhead than you will ever be.

    Cheers.

  7. Hmmmm

    1.the unions want heads to roll ,b bennett etc
    Not sure what that means

    2.now that their is no enemy the next natural progression is to attack oneself for supremacy of ideology-the greens are ready to blindside labor at every turn
    Not sure what that means
    snip
    4.factional warriors-d mighel,j robertson etc
    Not sure what that means
    5.the proven venality of the electorate- it remembers the $ not the “ahs’
    most of labors win was finessed via the youth vote who were enamoured by St Kev-give em a few years of pain and they will be begging “uncle howie” to lead em out the wilderness (back to the good times that they remember under the libs)
    This has been trotted out by a few Fibs on various forums. Assumes 2008 will be like 1990 or something. Real problem more likely to be stagflation. Middle aged also voted overwhelmingly for Labor. Fibs are the ones in trouble with only oldies favoring them. good times under the Fibs eh? with 10 interest rae rises on the trot what good times exactly were they?

  10. What good times were they Thom?

    They were the good times when shareholders, employers and CEOs could become wealthier through government-sanctioned exploitation and insecurity of working people.

  11. What good times were they Thom? They were good times when one could divide and conquer for one’s own political gain.

  12. Gary Bruce (510) I don’t understand what you mean. The practice of politics is and always has been about division and conquest. If you are suggesting the Liberal Party has participated in the practice, then I would agree. But where does that get you?

  14. I dont think Eric Abetz is by any means responsible for the actions of his relatives. The point i was making is that Abetz is no greenie socialist nor even a wat u would call small L liberal. His politics is a little (well lot) on the Neo Conservative side. I was simply remarking on this very interesting coincidence.

    You see as a Tasmanian i also get the the distinct hnour of getting to hear him alot more than you mainlanders. As im sure for example people in South Australia get the fortune of hearing Downer or minchin more than the rest of us.

  15. GB thanks for the clarification. It will be interesting to see whether the government which supplanted ‘the Libs’ makes an ‘art form’ of the practice. I surmise its longevity might depend upon it.

  20. This paragraph on page 7605, describes “Pies” journalistic style well.

    Unfortunately, it is still the same, if not worse.

    [So too with Piers Akerman. When I challenged
    him recently about one of his journalistic
    inventions, he responded that it is
    defensible for comments to be ‘wrong, even
    grossly exaggerated, based on prejudice or
    obstinacy’.]

  21. #518…

    Strangely, under “Decendents”, they only listed one. Eric, a member of the Australian Senate for the Liberal Party.

    I found that curious, too. If you look at the editing history the mention of Eric Abetz was inserted only today. It was then removed by someone. IT was then re-inserted by the original author. All today.

    I’m in two minds about Abetz’s “links” (if you can call them that) to Nazisim.

    Mostly I think it’s irrelevant and stupid to bring up not only things that happened 60 and 70 years ago, but things that happened to the subject’s grandfather’s brother(!) for Chrissake.

    This is the kind of gutter journalism that Milne relies on to dredge up something… anything… on Rudd…. from as far back as he (Milne) needs to go. Today’s exercise referred to Swan’s first (and discreet) wife, his dope smoking and his second wife’s pregnancy at the time of their marriage. Milne didn’t seem to care too much about this, but made reference to the fact that Rudd and Swan were alumni of the same school and… What did Rudd know?????? about Swan’s first marriage, dope smoking etc.

    A couple of weeks ago Milne wrote one of his neo-Burkegate columns and, although it sank like a lead balloon, he referred to “the cover-up” often being more of a sin than the actual “crime”. Now, we could read a “Woodward-Bernstein” fantasy on the part of Milne into this reference, or we could take him at his word. It seems Milne will continue to dredge up embarrassing references to Rudd’s (and others’) previous lives in the hope of getting oneof them to deny it. Once it is denied, then we have a cover-up, which Milne is on record as regarding as worse than the crime.

    So, while Milne’s articles lately have been pretty mediocre, if not stultifyingly irrelevant, his agenda is not so much to shame but to trip-up his victim into a denial. We saw this with the “emails” imbroglio subsequent to the Burkegate articles, with Chris Pyne (among others) asking Rudd careful questions as to whether he had any more emails. Well, maybe they were fishing expeditions, and maybe the public not only does not care, but doesn’t mind Rudd being tainted at all (if last year’s opinion polls are any guide), but the Opposition and friends are out to trip Rudd up and catch hi in a “lie”, even if it’s only just the possibility of a lie.

    Likewise with Abetz, whoever leaked the story (and it’s supposed to have come from the Lberal Party) seems hell bent on the same thing.

    It’s dirty, it’s gutter politics and it’s awful to read. Just as Rudd is not responsible for what Swan did or did not do 30 years ago, Abetz is in no way responsible, or indeed answerable for what his grandfather’s brother did 60 years ago. Neither stories have one iota of relevance to today, or even to the past of these men.

    I never thought I’d feel sorry for Eric Abetz, but there you go… I do.

  22. bushfire bill

    well said

    it seems not all on this blog have ideological blinkers

    perhaps you could give them lessons

    mr bill

  24. There’s something curious about that phrase “The coverup’s worse than the crime”. We hear it so often that most nod and say, “Yes. that’s right.”

    We are therefore primed when a “cover-up” – which could range from an outright lie about the events in question, to a momentary loss of memory, to a confusion about the question and so on – is found.

    We are automatically on hair-trigger about “cover-ups” because that’s how we’re told to react to them. But what about cover-ups that aren’t cover-ups? What about “cover-ups” where there’s no crime? For example, a cancelled meeting between Rudd and Burke in Perth in 2005 is no crime. I don’t give a hoot in hell whether Burke was a “convicted criminal” or not. If meeting with people who’ve done time was a crime then I think we’d all be in jail, including Howard, Costello, and all the other bigwigs from politics and society.

    But as soon as there’s a whiff that the victim is trying to worm his or her way out of such “accusations” suddenly we have a cover-up, which (Milne tells us) is worse than the crime. In fact, in Milne’s view, a cover-up can transform an innocuous act into a crime, by virtue of its being uttered. An accidental misrepresentation about the alleged act can turn innocence into suspicion, which, again the view of the Milnes of this world, is tantamount to guilt (even if the victim is only guilty of clumsiness of ineptitude). Being primed by the Milnes of this world into believing that the cove-up is worse than the crime, the idea is that we all start to point our fingers.

    That such gutter tactics are employed by perhaps the most demonstrably disgusting member of the journalism profession, someone who while drunk got up on national television and assaulted the presenter of the show and then who persisted in pressing home his attack, is perhaps the thing that gets me the angriest. That and Milne’s pat answer to these facts being, “Well yes, but I’m not putting myself up for Prime Minister, am I?” really get my blood boiling.

    The Abetz story and the Swan story are all over Fairfax papers now. This is what we get for allowing ourselves to be tittilated by scandal rumours. And all from the poison pen of righteuous drunkards like Milne and holier-than-thou pontificators from the backrooms of the Liberal Party. If there is a God of Kharma, I hope she’s watching.

  25. BB,

    You are right. But, unfortunately the increase in the speed of communication through personal phones, the internet, hidden cameras means that no one is ever going to be fit to fill any office ever again.

    Look at the David Hicks scenario where someone who has done hard time and (seems) to be trying to get his life together is being continually harassed because of his “News” value.

    Milne and co need to be more and more spectacular with their deviancy to be employable (relevant).

  27. You are right BB. But it is precisely this kind of shallow and witless rumour-mongering that sustains the current Australian political media cycle. (Or at least the mainstream cycle.) There really are very few msm commentators or analysts who bother with objectivity, the exploration of themes, the laying out of an historical context, or, dare I even utter the word, facts when putting together their stories.

    Glenn Milne is a tragi-comic example of the sclerotic mediocrity weakening our capacity (and deadening our desire) for sophisticated debate in this country about the big and complex problems confronting us (water, global warming, Aboriginal disadvantage, homelessness, housing affordability, etc.). This mediocrity diverts us from the deep, democracy-nourishing value of debate conducted in a mature manner with the best outcomes in mind (i.e. not point scoring, scandal unearthing, or the provision of, as you say, titillating fodder for Sunday morning cafe conversations).

    A further comment on mediocrity: It is no surprise to me that Janet Albrechtsen, among others, has been so desperate since the election to push her elite-equals-bad mantra. For the opposite of elite is ordinary and ordinary is the status quo illusion that allows her to lunch with friends in Bronte while urging single-income families on the poverty line in Macquarie Fields to rise up against the elite (whoever they be). Until now, the balance has been just right for this abject and insidious hypocrisy to flourish. Howard encouraged it; I hope Rudd will help us to wash it all away.

  29. Bushfire Bill, fine posting. I can’t actually work out why anyone takes Milne with anything other than a van load of salt, let alone Akerman or Albrechtson. I also can’t work out why Milne and Akerman appear on Insiders. It’s not as though they have anything meaningful to say politically. I wasn’t aware of the Swan story being in the Fairfax papers. Didn’t see anything on it in the “Sunday Age”. Anyway, given the primary,TPP and PPM numbers currently, it would seem they labour in vain. Perhaps Kharma is watching.

  30. Rudd and Swan were alumni of the same school and… What did Rudd know?????? about Swan’s first marriage, dope smoking etc

    As I understand it there’s a 2 or 3 years age difference between them, so presumably there was the same separation at school. I can’t for the life of me remember anything about anyone 2 or 3 years ahead or behind me at boarding school where we probably knew more about our peers than might be the case in a regular high school.

    Bushfire Bill @ 524
    If meeting with people who’ve done time was a crime then I think we’d all be in jail,

    I believe that Rudd would have done better by making a big show of meeting Burke when he was last in Perth and then making it clear he was elected to governed for all Australian, even those who’d messes up. First, it’s true, second it would put this nonsense to bed for most people, though not bottom feeders like Milne. Not that it matters. I suspect very few folk give a monkeys.

  31. The Abetz link should not used against him. Modern society should not punish one’s relatives for one’s descendent’s crimes. Heck, we are nation that was founded as a penal colony, is that allowed to be held against the nation as a whole?

  32. 531 BS Fairman, the Abetz story is just another example of the Liberals behaving badly and turning on each other. Just rubbish not worth commenting on. What made me suspicious initially was that the Liberal trolls were introducing the story on this blog.

  34. BS Fairman, have just re read the Reserve Bank Boards reasons for the last interest rate rise and they seem very confident that inflation will be peaking in March and it should be all downhill thereafter. Tanner said today he is expecting the surplus to be bigger than expected and the pork barreling of the last government is going to be cut to shreds. Should be the most interesting budget since the man with no economic credentials leapt out of the Dollar Sweets junior barrister job to alleged Treasurer 12 years ago.

  36. 535 It was our old mate here, Steve K:

    412
    nemesis Says:
    March 1st, 2008 at 10:16 pm

    ah

    labor blog central has come online

    what worthy pronouncements shall issue forth tonite zoom

    perhaps outright praise for the attack on abetz or a half-hearted defence of corruption is us (oops i meant nsw labor)

  37. steve

    context please!

    i was referring to zoom

    you my old chum

    are part of the cabal

    i fortunately am not beholden to ideology or party politics

  38. The Liberal trolls not only were the ones to introduce it, they kept banging on about it even when we clearly weren’t interested.
    (Noticed also that certain points of view were attributed to posters which were not expressed by them).

  39. Surely the RBA has to allow time for the last two (three, counting the bank’s own grab) rate rises to work in the market. To impose another rate rise now in view of the nose-dive in the stock markets would appear to be perilous economics. If indeed they expect inflation to start to ease soon, then surely it is time to ease up on the levers.

  40. Milne doesn’t care about the original acts. He only care when someone tries – or can be said to have tried – to cover them up.

    The slightest loss of memory, the slightest mistake, one errant email, fax or phone call will be pounced on as proof that smoke exists, so where’s the fire? Once the public has been conditioned to the cover-up being the thing, not the act itself, the theory goes that they’ll get interested, eventually.

    The day after Milne’s first Burkegate article there was a barrage of questions from the Opposition in Question Time. Quite forensic they were.

    A week later, and Milne had been through the travel diaries held at Parliament House. One… two…

    He found that Rudd’s diary said he was in Hong Kong, when he was in Perth (for Senator Cook’s funeral). Now, he was originally supposed to be in Perth with Burke and the journalists, then he cancelled (far to chummily, according to some) citing a “stuff-up” from Foreign Affairs as the reason. He told Burke in an email that he had to be in Hong Kong. So did he go to Hong Kong, as his travel diaries said he had? No! He was in Perth, ostensibly for the funeral.

    The clear implication was that Rudd had falsified his travel diaries to say he was in Hong Kong, while he snuck into Perth to meet with Burke, even though his excuse for being in Perth was Cook’s funeral. Are youse all following this?

    It’s not the act, it’s the cover-up, Milne reckons. That is his stated position.

    If he can cause some confusion regarding Rudd real whereabouts on the Saturday in question, cross-correlating travel diaries with Rudd’s verbal answers in QT, adding in his emails, and showing some alleged discrepancy, then (in Milne’s fevered mind) the cover-up is established. A simple trip to Hong Kong, three years ago, interrupted by the funeral of a dear friend on the same Saturday that Rudd was originally supposed to meet with Burke suddenly becomes a hanging offence.

    OK, so it didn’t work this time. But there’s always tomorrow, and the day after, and the day after that. Dredge up something on Swan and tie in Rudd because he went to the same school. Does anyone here not believe that right now, up in the back-blocks of Queensland there isn’t some old hack, hired in on a contract, trying to find a mutual friend of Rudd’s and Swan’s who’ll spill the beans on their drug and sexed crazed surfing safaris together? They sent someone to dig out the Eumundie eviction “facts” and tried to tip a bucket over Rudd last year over it. Why not the Rudd-Swan beach crawl in the summer of 1978?

    Surely someone will stump up with a lurid story? In Milne World, remember, it doesn’t matter what happened thirty years ago, but it does matter if someone today is lying about it. And of course Milne himself, the uber-coiffed, snappy dressing drunkard (sadly prone to a little biffo in public, but he doesn’t want to be Prime Minister), will be the sole arbiter (well, him, Chris Pyne and maybe “Pies” Akerman) of whether anyone’s telling lies and the morals that lie behind it. That goes without saying.

    As the plan goes, Milne’s Sunday articles will morph into an Inquisitorial grilling in Question Time the day after and maybe on the Tuesday as well. It’s the old “one-two” in action. One in the guts and then the uppercut. If not this week, then next week, or the week after, or maybe next year. But sometime.

    So, call the above the product of my own fevered imagination, but for the life of me I can’t think of any other reason why these articles have appeared just out of the blue.

    I know Milne’s an idiot, and I know he’s a sanctimonious pipsqueak, but he still has a few functioning brain cells even after all those Scotches and he’s not actually stupid (although, does he not allow himself to be used like an old rag?).

    Something co-ordinated is going on. The whiff of a smear and innuendo campaign is too strong, like that dead possum under the floorboards that you can’t find, no matter how hard you look. But you know it’s there.

    Otherwise these stories, and their timing, just make no sense.

  41. 539 Basil Fawlty, I believe there will be one more interest rate rise from the Reserve bank in March closely followed by one more from each of the lenders due to their exposure to the sub prime fiasco. Hopefully that will be the extent of the anti inflation medicine to fix up the worst of Howard’s legacy. Other measures such as the spending cuts in wasteful areas will do the rest it seems.

  42. While I am no great fan of Wayne Swan, It’s crap to go on about what he did in his youth!

    O dear he smoked a joint and had sex in his younger days, I’m outraged for these have no impact on his currant role.

    The band Tool has a song which goes.

    “If you are against drugs, go home, take out all your records and throw them out for all those artist were real high on drugs”

    I’m not condoning drug use, but I know very successful people who have done things in their youth or have in their private lives had situations which would be condifered unprofessional yet these people are trusted to run companies and make a contribution to society.

  43. Message to Wayne Swan.

    The first thing you should cut funding to is the Disability Employment Providers, they are a complete waste of space.

    On Interest rates, I went to an auction yesterday and all I can say is the market is showing little sign of slowing, I’m tipping two more rate rises this year.

  46. Plus having more than one marriage is not that uncommon in politics. Isn’t Nelson is on his third?

    Plus given that surveys suggest approx. 50% have attempt at some stage to smoke dope, I would be very surprised if there were not more cases that Milne will disclose as some great sin of the past.

    For the record, I was once done by the police for rolling past a stop sign.

  47. “trying to find a mutual friend of Rudd’s and Swan’s who’ll spill the beans on their drug and sexed crazed surfing safaris together?’

    Probably see Rudd’s approval rating go up another 10 pints, like it did after the stripper story.

  48. bushfire bill

    the point of journalistic integrity is to have FACTS not innuendo

    milne’s campaign against rudd has been almost pathological, as early in the Rudd rise to power milne tried to nail him,as did various posters on this and other blogs.

    Milne’s credibilty was trashed then and his failure to”hit the target” has led to ever madder scribblings

    totally irrelevant i believe the abetz article was an attempt to restore some credibility

    he truly is a sad little man

  49. Basil Fawlty, one point Rudd did make today, in Brisbane, was that australia has the second highest interest rates in the world due to Costello’s neglect. I don’t think that he likes them to be that high and once inflation is back under control, a shift downwards can be expected but certainly not before inflation is strangled.

  50. steve

    i do recommend alcan extra strength aluminum as it stops those “rays”

    and as an added bonus it is easy to fit over ones head

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