Morgan: 64.5-35.5

The latest face-to-face Morgan poll shows Labor breaking its record result of a few weeks ago. It now leads 56.5 per cent to 31.5 per cent on the primary vote and 64.5-35.5 on two-party preferred. Morgan also presents us with qualitative findings on perceptions of the two leaders, which gives a strong impression that Brendan Nelson failed to please anybody in attempting to have two bob each way on the stolen generations apology.

Other news:

• The AEC has commenced redistribution proceedings for Western Australia and the Northern Territory. It is likely that no change will be required for the latter; the outlook for the former was earlier canvassed here.

• A transcript of a High Court hearing regarding Labor’s appeal against Fran Bailey’s win in McEwen has been published, the upshot of which appears to be that the matter will be heard in the Federal Court late next month.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

690 comments on “Morgan: 64.5-35.5”

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  1. 550 Nemesis, sorry I only speak English or German – Tory speak is meaningless to me, and I have no interest in whatever it is that 550 means to you.

  2. On interest rates the RBA seem to use kid gloves, always 0.25% rises, one after the other, 12 in a row now.

    Surely if you wanted to put the skids on spending or send a real message the rises should be higher. Or are they scared of increasing them too much and creating another recession we had to have. Either way just because they are on the RBA board does not mean they know what they are doing.

    But when you try to control something there inevitably has to be movements in both directions, both up and down, their pussyfooting suggests a lack of confidence.

  3. No 549

    Steve, get off the blame Costello bandwagon. The resources boom and high oil prices have been fuelling inflation for a number of years. I think it’s a fallacy to argue that infrastructure and skills investment will automatically solve the inflation problem given that consumer spending has also been rising at astronomical rates.

  4. Arbie Jay, a pathetic performance by the RBA…..I don’t like the game they play!!!

    Incremental adjustments are a slow death that could have been avoided, but the tread softly approach is somewhat disingenuous, as will be proven.

    What gets me is the reference to historical economics per se…..this is different times and the dynamics are not being fully recognised!

    Look at the good old USA….interest rates going through the roof???

    It’s kind of like the wave is too big so it is best to flick out….no balls!

  5. oy GP

    im the resident “troll” here according to zoom,steve and a few others 🙁

    but others know the truth 🙂

    Pod

    i truly do pity the poor buggers like glen and steven kaye to name but a few

    dealing on this forum

    trying to stimulate some lateral thinking is hard

    how in hell some innocent poor bugger is going to get oxygen is incredible

    if the kneejerk labels is applied and assidiously followed

    to you glen i (conditionally)apologise,steven kaye you deserved every last insult

  6. Nemesis whilst we hold similar ideological perspectives, your errant behaviour is doing yourself a disservice.

  7. Water Matters. SA.

    I was troubled by my neigbour’s immoderate use of bore water.

    A conversation with a staffer for Gail Gago, South Australia, a couple of weeks ago gave me rest. Gago is in charge of bore water matters, as it transpires. Not Carlene Maywald, the Minister for other types of water.

    No wonder Kev and Penny are into the 100th day of sorting it out.

    My immediate area is not an aquifer, but is fed by falling water.

    It is saline, so no use to anybody much. Except, because we are on sand, in my area by the beach, the salinity is not retained. It drains. Yes, it does yellow the grass, if directly sprayed, burns leaves on plants. But does not accumulate, as it would do on clay soil.

    So the grass recovers. The plants would take a little longer, if they survived.

    The unfortunate thing is that draining the bore supply affects all users of the bore water in the area.

    That is, it will run out. Not to be replenished until and unless it rains.

    The neighbour has been, since 6.00 pm and is still, running his bore. With the watering leads going to his other neighbours.

    A changed note in the sound alerted me. The electric pump is running.

    No water is being pumped.

    Guess Gail Gago’s staffer was correct.

  8. Piers
    your next column awaits

    why dally here

    Nemesis whilst we hold similar ideological perspectives

    oh no we dont rightard

  9. Bushfire Bill @ 540 –

    Think you’re right. The problem with Rudd is that he has a tendency to over elaborate when he deals with the Milne type rubbish. For example, on the strip joint caper all he needed to say was that he didn’t know what it was when they got there and once he realised he had one drink and left, which by most third party accounts is about all that happened. Instead we got the tale about being drunk as a lord and how he rang the missus to confess all, etc. Totally unnecessary and just gives the bottom feeders more stuff to work on.

    Mexican Beemer @ 543 – Place 2 doors up had its first open inspection today. Estimate at least 30 groups went through which is slightly more than when next door was sold in mid December. I’d be very surprised if this one also isn’t snapped up by mid week. So it looks as if neither interest rates, petrol prices or post Christmas empty wallets are having an effect yet.

  10. Bushfire Bill

    I dips me lid. So insightful, so articulate.

    You should be the columnist, not the Milnes, Albrechtsens and Awfulmans.

  11. Crikey

    have followed your “boring” escapades with much glee

    perhaps a scale model of the problem might help?

    my personal suggestion is to drain a 4 litre cask with the neighbour and say
    at the end “well mate until we go to the bottlo we aint got anymore bit like whats happening to the bore i hear” then leave him the inner(bladder) as a pillow to reflect on this wisdom

  12. BB and MayoFeral

    Do support the notion that Kev should not go overboard on explanations. Though never to the extent of Howard and Co, the never knew, never were told, cannot even remember. Just a little less information will do.

    And even on consultation. At the risk of inciting the trolls, I and probably most listeners thought, amusing, Kev on Christmas morning, being unable to work out the industrial dishwasher, consulted the nation.

    Kev got plenty of feedback, laughs and help, though.

  13. Good suggestion, nemesis. But the draining of the bore will be more effective.

    Then, I will, as he is a little deaf, yell ‘Well.’ Etc.

  14. Gp

    i also (very conditonally) apologise

    some very nice truffles can be snuffled out of your rants

    as a matter of interest @351 was more to see who is dogmatic (and a tad obsessive) and whether there was a sense of “achievement” from the leftards

    has any one compared rudds 100 days to gough’s and bob’s in any meaningful way

    i do apologise for the some time seemingly ramble but i think only “thomarse’ had a go at 351 in earnest and hit googa gagga land real quick

  15. I’m not even sure what my particular dogma is supposed to be, Nem. Please enlighten me.
    I joined the ALP to change it, not because I blindly support its every belief. I haven’t joined a faction because I value my independence too much and also have a firm belief (borne out so far) that merit will be recognised.
    I also believe that a member of a party has a responsibility to criticise it (internally) – if you don’t get the truth from your friends, where will it come from?
    I’m not quite sure why you’re so obsessed with me, but I suppose you know.
    Oh and yes, I value freedom of speech, with the correlating resposibilities that go with, and don’t believe I’ve ever tried to deny that to anyone on this site.
    If I haven’t responded to a post by you, it’s because it didn’t interest me, I didn’t understand it or it was outside of my area of expertise, nothing personal.
    BTW, I asked you some questions, too and you haven’t bothered to answer them.

  16. No 567

    If that’s the case, he could start by demanding that state governments reduce their prohibitively high taxes on land and developers.

  17. giants are involved in building houses steve?

    (see previous posts re norse mythology- trolls are giants who went on to live in caves and become artisans)

    doubt they have time to visit pollbludger 🙂

  18. Zoom
    am formulating reply

    zzzzt exterminate zzzzt

    sorry wrong program wil get back to you shortly

    ps you have some pretty impressive BI running there sunshine ;0

  19. nemesis, for me to say that I think you are a highly opinionated individual would be, I think, to substantially underestimate your feelings of self importance to yourself.

    Your incredible ability to put forward an argument with absolutely no substance and to savagely tear apart the opinions of others without so much as putting forward even the remotest thread of countervailing argument are a wonder to behold.

    You are reaching the stratospherical depths of masters of the art such as Piers, Bolt, JA & Co. It must give your ego a wonderful sense of achievement without which, I suspect you would fall into the pits of despair. Congratulations.

  20. offering me job are you scorps?

    Zoom

    apologies i just thought after you rather savage posts
    (example attached) i would play to your stereotype
    444
    zoom Says:
    March 1st, 2008 at 10:46 pm
    Nem – you, to accuse someone else of repetition!
    Nice of you to suggest I possess analytical skills – sorry, I can’t return the favour.
    (BTW, if I was your parents, I’d be sueing your private school, they obviously didn’t teach you spelling, grammar, punctuation OR clear thinking).

  21. GP@569

    Can rudd actually make the states reduce theses taxes ?

    Why should developers pay lower taxes anyway?

    Does the creation of a Dept. alleviate or exacerbate the problem?

    your thoughts most respectfully you rightard trolliness

  22. Possum has finally got around to replying to Sham-I -am. Includes great soundtrack for reading the work of Dennis or his cheersquad of trolls.

  23. crikey

    please,please stop being so presumptive.

    btw the cask idea will work if done a few times-either way he will be too pissed to notice you turning it off anyway.

    cheers

  24. crikey
    how do you know that i aint donated $100?
    why did you make a statistical analysis of my 34 odd post re others earlier in the thread?
    i dont have the right to post beyond a quota and prevailing dogma?
    and i must pay for the privelege?

    enlighten me please

  25. GP, I feel obliged to point out again: inflation is not caused by high oil prices. It is the other way around. Strong demand for a good or service – in the absence of other factors – will cause prices to rise. Oil is not exempt from this axiom.

    In fact, it can be argued that in general prices will only be able to rise when demand is sufficiently strong. Correspondingly, when demand is weak, prices will more or less automatically fall.

    Rather than being a source of inflation, a fast-rising oil price is in fact a contractionary force. Increases in oil prices tend to cause a subtraction in demand for other goods and services: that is, when oil prices rise very quickly, it becomes more difficult to raise prices for other goods and services and recession can ensue, as has occurred nearly every time oil prices have suddenly “spiked” to very high levels. Think of 1973/4, 1981 and 1990/1.

    We have observed a rise in the nominal price of oil in the US. But this has more to do with the decline in the value of the USD than with demand for oil or inflationary pressures in the US.

    We should recall that the nominal oil price – and the prices of many other commodities – and the value of the USD move inversely to each other. The decline in a desire to hold the USD is being expressed in part in rising prices for all commodities, including oil. But the AUD oil price has not moved much because the USD has also declined against our currency.

    The peculiar thing about the current situation in the oil market is that even though US demand is not growing, the oil price has still been able to climb. This is because the US has lost its role as the driver of growth in the oil market and in the world economy. The increase in the oil price is a real increase in the US and – rather than causing inflation/ expansion – is a genuine recessionary pressure in that economy.

  26. I don’t know, nemesis.

    Only you and William know.

    I did not exactly analyse, merely a rough sum of the posts. I think, though not in Vera’s case, unjust to some.

    I came home, read, and was struck by the vehemence and input of those who could be named as trolls.

    So amused myself by counting. Posts.

    Troll or not, nemesis, you achieved the highest score.

    And if you have donated, you are entitled.

    Cheers.

  27. 589 Just a disaffected rump who can’t accept that they are no longer in power anywhere except the Brisbane City Council and watching the polls reflecting the increasing isolation of their brand of politics. It happens to suit me and my view of life so I don’t care really whether they are a bureau, a split individual or a whole disaffected party.

    They have a licence to fight over the spoils of defeat and are behaving as a rabble individually and in parliament as an opposition. Long may they stay there. A decade and a half of opposition will mature both troll and opposition so strap yourself in and enjoy the journey, I know I will.

  28. Anyone, it is apparent, donating or not, may contribute to this post. Anarchist, monarchist, doesn’t matter.

    William at particular moments has been supported in his endeavor when the posters have chipped in.

    Heavy traffic drawing on whatever his resources.

    It is not William who is objecting to anyone’s input. It is me.

    I just find it irritating that the Libs sweep in to the site without a thought to William’s bandwidth and costs. Or is it?

    Sort of a takeover thing. Apparently, sites which are so imposed upon may actually fold. Deliberate sabotage?

    Which is not what I would like to have happen. I love ythis site.

    So those who can, put in a little cash.

    That is all.

  29. Nemesis, seriously mate, enough is enough.

    The odd funny insult, the occasional dig, is acceptable.

    However, what your persona on this blog has become is a parody of civil discourse and does you, as an individual of obvious intelligence, no justice or credit.

    As a guide, I would suggest that bloggers refrain from posting anything they would be embarrased to post under their own name.

    At the very least, an insult published with the courage of disclosure would deal a far more powerful blow, if that is the level of argumentation we chose to indulge in.

  30. sorry william

    what about the set quota deal?

    or

    only peddle the party/dogma/wheelbarrow line?

    Fulvio

    sorry didnt realise this was your blog
    btw are you from the BOT (bureau of trolls)

    apparently some think i need one 🙂

  31. For a person with so much advice for others you seem to be extremely reluctant to take a little yourself.

    No it’s not my blog, but one doesn’t have to own a wall to recognise the grafitti on it.

    Chacun a son gout….

  32. sorry william alas didnt see @594

    will get nanny to tuck me in and give some warm ovaltine and carrs table wafers

    in closing may i respectfully ask
    how telopea park high school ,which i attended (and was goughs alma mater)
    could ever be called private school?

    such insults are purile and just cause for retort

    g’nite

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