Morgan: 64.5-35.5

The latest face-to-face Morgan poll shows Labor breaking its record result of a few weeks ago. It now leads 56.5 per cent to 31.5 per cent on the primary vote and 64.5-35.5 on two-party preferred. Morgan also presents us with qualitative findings on perceptions of the two leaders, which gives a strong impression that Brendan Nelson failed to please anybody in attempting to have two bob each way on the stolen generations apology.

Other news:

• The AEC has commenced redistribution proceedings for Western Australia and the Northern Territory. It is likely that no change will be required for the latter; the outlook for the former was earlier canvassed here.

• A transcript of a High Court hearing regarding Labor’s appeal against Fran Bailey’s win in McEwen has been published, the upshot of which appears to be that the matter will be heard in the Federal Court late next month.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

690 comments on “Morgan: 64.5-35.5”

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  1. What are the odds of the name Brian Burke being mentioned in the Poisoned Dwarf’s column tomorrow? Will he ever learn?

  2. AW likes to portray Rudd’s community inclusion style as weakness. All spin, no substance. DO SOMETHING they say. He’s been voted in. Democracy has taken place, now do. Make decisions. You went to the people with ideas. Implement them.
    What could be more democratic than involving the average person in gathering opinions and ideas? Truth be known they hate it that Rudd is so popular.

  3. [Thanks Frank. How come the West get Milne before we do? (You poor buggers.)]

    Perth Now ALWAYS posts stuff that will appear in the Sunday Crimes around 6pm Saturday Night our time – check out Joe Spagnolo crying crocodile tears cos an unamed ALP MP called him a “Ding”.

  4. Good ol’ Glenn sticking up for his mate. Costello couldn’t win the next election for the Libs if Rudd was found in bed with a friend’s wife. Costello is as popular as dog droppings on a shoe.
    Why people believe Rudd will be blamed for this economic situation is beyond me. what Milne fails to realise I think is that people were hurting economically before the last election. It certainly played it’s part.

  5. [AW likes to portray Rudd’s community inclusion style as weakness. All spin, no substance. DO SOMETHING they say. ]

    The Entire Fairfax Radio Network (Formerly Southern Cross Broadcasting) sing from the same Hymn Book.

    It’s interesting to note that a former member of SCB at one stage was former Fraser Communications Minister, Tony Staley.

  6. They run polls on Rudd and wouldn’t you know they come out negative for him. Surprise, surprise. I’m convinced if you’re of the Labor persuasion your chances of becoming a commentator on AW is zip. You are right, they all sing from the same Hymn book.

  7. [ I’m convinced if you’re of the Labor persuasion your chances of becoming a commentator on AW is zip. ]

    I’m surprised 6PR employ Bob Maumill considering he’s a mate of Brian Burke 🙂 THeir Breakfast team have Andrew Bolt as a guest to discuss politics, and at the last State Election in 05 they had as political commentators Burke and NCB.

    My pet name for 6PR is 6 Perth Rednecks 🙂

  8. [check out Joe Spagnolo crying crocodile tears cos an unamed ALP MP called him a “Ding”.]

    Notice that the allegation is against an “un-named” MP, wheras he has no compunction about naming the MP he was supposidly talking to.

    Probably more than a 99% chance the whole thing is nothing but a fiction and used as a week talking point around which to build a similarly week “news”? item.

    It must be too hard to actually go out and find out what is happening in the real world and write a story about that.

    I think that Glen Milne’s article is in a similar vein. Quite a few words, oblique, unsourced, references to what could be possible if something or other does or does not happen.

    Just woefull, forgetable trash. Similarly, Janet A.

  9. sorry william

    should read : tomorow,waste of spacers

    nts; remember mr bowe is trying to encourage diversity and discusion,lefties cant deal with typo’s,facts or intellectual challenge

    sol; take mogadon before posting (ensures vacous reasoning akin to leftard brain processes)

  10. Is it just me or are the Libs around here a bit schizoid?

    They (like their Parliamentary colleagues) carry-on about the brilliance of the Howard Government while simultaneously attempting to distance themselves from it. Examples include Workchoices, the Apology and Kyoto. In each case the current position of the Liberal Party is the exact opposite of Howard’s.

    While it’s most satisfying watching the elephant trying to forget, I fear for their psychological well-being.

    At some point they’re going to have to face-up to the fact that Howard was a waste of space, if they’re going to retain any relevance at all in the new political climate. They’ll have to adapt or die, as Darwin might have said.

    The poor buggers just can’t quite bring themselves to do it. Not just yet, anyway.

    That probably explains the extraordinary polling figures.

  11. Why do I get the strange feeling that this “nemisis” is some sort of “artificial intelligence” experiment gone wrong.

    It is surely impossible for a living, breathing, person to be able to spew out so much repetitive nonsense over such a long time-span.

    I hope it’s batteries go flat soon, as I am heartily sick of this abject nonsense.

  12. william

    ping scorpio for nemisis

    its nemesis goddammit

    scorpio

    HAL greets your superior intelligence

    but is slightly pissed off at your spelling

    LOL

  13. 465 Scorpio – It’s a symptom of too much “refreshment”. No-one can carry on like that without it for that long. The sad thing is though it isn’t much better earlier on in the day. I don’t know what the “refresher” is but boy powerful and plenty on hand.

  14. Anyway, HAL9000 in the film 2001 became psychotic due to conflicting programming requirements.

    Again, a bit like the Libs: Hanging onto the Glorious Howard Legacy, while simultaneously attempting to disown it.

  15. gary
    available from all good labor shops (isnt what you and the renegade leftard train run on ?)

    but hey since you know it all why not tell us what is fuelling me/us/the machine

    ps any chance of a response to points 1,2,4 and 5 of my @351

    since you made such good gravy of point three try your hand at 1,2,4 and 5 if you have the balls

    or is the truth a bit woopsy poopsy for such a bastion of ‘all that is good and true’

  16. 462, note that it was more than a year ago – what’s the bet that the unamed MP was Collie MP Mick Murray, or even upper house MP Vince Catania. And note that Spagman didn’t mention that Carol Martin is Indiginous.

    Funny that he shares the same surname, though he’s not related to former City of Bayswater Mayor Adam Spagnolo.

  17. It is quite unfair to say that Howard did nothing in his early days of office.

    He dismantled the apprenticeship arrangements, stripped the dental scheme, increased application appeal fees to the High Court, stripped Abstudy of its intended purpose, decimated Research and Development a la CSIRO.

    Just for a start. I am sure that the Libs on the site will recall more.

  18. If I thought you would be able to comprehend my answers and then give them due consideration I would try and decipher your posting but it would be a waste of time, given your state of mind at the moment. Still haven’t denied being well and truly “refreshed”. Time for bed.

  19. Hmm well it appears Abetz’s grandparents were nazis. I must say as a Tasmanian it all now makes sense. Interesting he is blaming labor for the story. I have heard one or two whispers it may have come from within the liberal ranks. Well i guess this may be the last time ol eric is re elected. Doubt he will keep his top position on the senate ticket by a couple of votes this time.

    Anyway has anyone seen that Brisbanes Lord mayor appears to be keepin his job in a couple of weeks.
    http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/story/0,23739,23301566-13360,00.html

    No figures however that i can find.

  20. 476 Generic Person, hail friend, you are truly a beacon of reasonableness and civility on behalf of your cause. Must say the impotent rage of ‘nemesis’ is not a good recommendation, bilious indeed.

  21. I find the attack on Abetz just a bit extreme and tacky. the grounds for the accusation apparently are that he is ‘distantly related’ to a Nazi war criminal. I may not like him very much, but surely he is not responsible for crimes committed by some long dead relative.

  22. 478 One of the problems of a new batch of young Libs beginning university each year I suspect. They do tend to fire up, grow up and then disappear only to be replaced with more of the same the next year.

  23. An even scarier thought is that Nemesis it may well be the next Liberal Prime Minister in training. It has all the traits of previous ones.

  24. I’m trying to sit on my hands here, but the bad spelling’s getting to me.
    460 tomoroww
    461 gentle correction from William ‘tomorrow’
    462 tomorow

    This while bleating about misspelling of moniker and constant references to ‘leftards’ (use of that term is always a give away) not admitting errors.
    As I said, I’d be sueing the private school. (Must say, generalising from one or two particulars to form a general rule, a big no-no, the worst spellers I know of personally had been educated privately).

  25. A key paragraph in the Abetz story is:

    “Rumours of the Nazi link were leaked from the Liberal Party early last week, leading the Sunday Herald Sun to contact Mr Abetz’s office.”

    Why are the Libs pissing on their own?

    Also, the story today about Costello by his hagiographer Glenn Milne.

    http://www.news.com.au/dailytelegraph/story/0,22049,23302789-5001030,00.html

    I got the sense that Costello was offerred nothing in the commercial world. Obviously, the merchant banks want deal makers, not bus drivers.

  26. Basil Fawlty @ 479
    the grounds for the accusation apparently are that he is ‘distantly related’ to a Nazi war criminal. I may not like him very much, but surely he is not responsible for crimes committed by some long dead relative.

    No, but he is reponsible for associating with war criminals and aiding and abetting war crimes.

    GG @ 483 – You’re right the Cossie’s phone hasn’t been ringing off the hook with job offers. He’s headed back to the bar, though that prospect may have him reconsidering staying on in the hope of being drafted leader……eventually.

    Same story for Lord Lunchalot. Nobody wants him, except maybe, possibly, if nothing better turns up, Natasha’s hubby and, wierdly, Nick Bolkus.

  27. Milne’s at it again… this time SWan used to smoke dope at Nambour High, and had a first marriage that’s not in Who’s Who?…

    As he and Rudd were both a school together – 30 years ago – what did and does Rudd know about all this?

    Cover up?

    Please stop. It hurts!

  28. yo zoom

    labor blog central is up early today
    you are a petty little hack arent you-though glad you are pedantic enough to pick up my (intentional) spelling mistake,you simply can not answer or debate any of the issues i raised at @351 or others for that matter

    ps did the “menice” get under your skin, or the fact that someone has a different view to your orthodoxy

    the presumptive behaviour shown here is exactly what the liberal party was accused of in power

    have any of you considered that in fact i may be an alp insider trying to rouse yourself and your compadres from your hubristic and introverted ramblings.

    there is work to be done,ideas to debate,innovations to be tested-if the level of debate on this site remains stagnant-you might as well talk to yourselves in the mirror if its consensus you are after

    basil
    good to see your sense of “fair play” re Abetz is way beyond others here-well done that you can show some compassion
    ps piss poor attempts at insults- ive heard better at the ladies auxillary

  29. “Fight Club” Milne with yet another nonstory.I think these stories hurt him more.As my Granny says “he is just a little man who is after big attention”.

  30. nemesis, which bit was piss poor as you so eruditely exclaimed? Was it the impotent bit, I can change that to limp dick if you prefer. However that presumes you are of the male gender in the first place.

  31. GG #486: yes, I noticed that. “Pies” Akerman going all quiet on something.

    It just annoys me that Milne actually thinks this kind of rubbish – rubbish under any definition – is interesting.

    “What did Rudd know?”… drumroll… dark music… pfffht.

  32. After having his “big Burke story” hit for six Milne is attempting to make headlines each week. He is a sh.. stirrer for the Libs and nothing more. Which Lib is feeding him?

  33. Good old Hanoi Piers, reckon all those years of peruvian marching powder must have played havoc with the neurons, managed to be as obnoxious as ever this morning. Thank dog for George Mega, rational and calm as ever. Miss Mattie Price tho!

  34. Piers was put back in his box a number of times this week on Insiders. He looked chastened and had no come back when challenged. What a goose.

  35. basil

    exhibit A
    “376
    Basil Fawlty Says:
    March 1st, 2008 at 7:29 pm
    374 Harry, don’t tempt fate, it will crawl out from under its rock soon enough!’

    good to see you can constructively engage in debate.

  36. And I was right wasn’t I? You did crawl out from under the rock, just like the venomous little spider you are!

  37. Gary,

    Piers could not sustain his opening par from his oped piece today so basically sulked throughout.

    “AFTER 99 days of the Rudd government, Australia is in its worst political position since the Whitlam Government crisis days.”

    Just a little disconnected from reality I would say.

  38. 496 Basil Fawlty – Nemesis is good at one thing, and I know because I’m as “guilty” as anyone, he is adept at sucking people in to responding to him. There is one way of ridding ourselves of this person or of changing his/her way of communicating his/her ideas and that is to ignore him/her until his/her postings show sensible debate.

  39. Isn’t it sad that we have a bunch of conservatives openly hoping Rudd fails to achieve his sensible goals for Australia? We see it here and on shows like Insiders with Piers. It shows the low quality people supporting the Libs. Not all supporters of course but a bunch of hard heads that will stop at nothing to regain power.

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