Morgan: 62.5-37.5

Roy Morgan’s fourth published poll of the Rudd era has produced a result similar to the first two, after a slight improvement for the Coalition at the third. Labor’s two-party lead has increased to 62.5-37.5 from 60-40 at the previous face-to-face poll; their primary vote is up from 49 per cent to 54 per cent, with the Coalition down from 36 per cent to 33 per cent.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

681 comments on “Morgan: 62.5-37.5”

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  1. Ron at #99

    Well remembered! He did mention Solidarity:

    “I recollect when I first came into this place [in 1980] the walls of Eastern Europe were cracking. The Soviet empire was falling apart. What was the first indication? Solidarity [the union movement in Poland]. What was absolutely clear was that [Solidarity] was a challenge the Soviet Union could not handle. A challenge of free unions was something a dictatorial Communist Party could not handle.

    Kim Beazley Farewell Speech, reported in Sydney Morning Herald, 22 September 2007
    http://www.smh.com.au/news/opinion/in-departure-the-glory-that-was-missing/2007/09/21/1189881775006.html?page=fullpage

  2. Frank C @ 98
    In this bit on his page I think Brendan is describing not dogs, but his MP’s who didn’t boycott sorry day or read a magazine in the House:

    “I love the fact that they’re gutsy, affectionate, low maintenance and less of a problem if you take them to a mate’s place. “

  3. Gary says:

    Prime Minister Kevin Rudd and his colleagues are still very much enjoying a honeymoon period!

    So that’s a fourteen month honeymoon now is it? 🙂

    Of course this means even less than Morgans meant pre-election, but you’ld have to think that a poll taken post-Wednesday would be even better than this one taken pre-Wednesday…

  4. ESJ. Mmmmmmmmaaaatttttttteeeeeeeee. This is getting creepy. That is your obsession with Jen.
    Jen please be careful that he finds out no more about you or else your undies might start to disappear from your laundry line!
    ESJ please get back to politics & STOP cyber stalking.

  5. Out of interest, what are the appropriate HTML tags in order to turn a slab of text into a quote, bold or italics?

    [blockquote] quote [/blockquote]
    [strong] bold [/strong]
    [em] italic [/em]

    with < instead of [ and > instead of ]
    (if that sentence doesnt work I mean the triangular brackets on the , and . keys)

  6. Interesting.
    Compared to first preferences at the election this poll says:
    -FF have decreased by .5% to only 1.5%
    -Greens have decreased by only .3% to stay virtually the same as before at 7%plus.
    -“Others” seem to be about the same.
    -Which means that nearly all of the massive increase of more than 10% by the ALP seems to have transferred directly from the Coalition [can one really call such a disunited group a coalition?].
    And I suspect Rudd’s current approval rating would be through the roof and the ALP to have marginally improved even further in the last few days.

    Double dissolution soon anyone?
    I think not.

  7. Fred@109
    good point re the DD option

    at the moment the libs are like a little kitten chasing a ball of wool across the floor to one side of the room and back again.
    Every now and again Rudd comes in and gives the ball a gentle push.

    Why spoil the kittens fun. 🙂

  8. People who love St Kevin of OZ
    Me
    Stolen Generations
    Jose Ramos-Horta
    Xanana Gusmao (what a big warm hug that was!)
    and even the Dalai Lama

    Dear Kev, good onya – Dalai Lama
    By Mark Schliebs
    February 15, 2008 06:36pm

    KEVIN Rudd didn’t only win over Australians with his apology to Aboriginal people: he earned the praise of one of the world’s most respected spiritual leaders – the Dalai Lama.

    The Dalai Lama was so tickled-pink with the new prime minister’s commitment to reconciliation, Mr Rudd’s office received a letter outlining the Buddhist leader’s approval.

    “I was very encouraged to hear on the news about the apology you made in parliament to all Aborigines for laws and policies that ‘inflicted profound grief, suffering and loss’ upon them,” His Holiness wrote.

    “Overall, this was a timely, appropriate and civilised thing to do.

    “Although, of course, this is not a matter in which I have any direct concern, because you and I know each other, I wanted to tell you how much I appreciate this kind gesture.”

  9. Vera you have clearly good taste & interllect !

    Gusface , like a little kitten ?…..what happened to the rodent ..(s)

    Fred/Gusface…does the Poll predict Senate numbers in a DD as the Libs have 37 to 34 over Labor there & without a DD it may take 6 years to reverse ?

  10. B.S. Fairman Fagin steve Kirribilli Removals BMWofVictoria Enemy Combatant charles dizzystuff Mr Squiggle Thank Gough Frank Calabrese Troll MayoFeral Darryl gary bruce après Rx gusface Mathew Cole harry snapper jen esj charles zoom Generic Person Ron Martin B Aussieguru01 Fred

    Even sorrier, do I feel. Having just caught up with today’s sorry. A sad Australian, humiliated and outraged at the use of her story.

    Courtesy, Brendan Nelson. Again! Disgraced in his entrapped position.

    Lifelines from Kevin will only work, if Brendan allows himself to be pulled across the divide, defying the attempts of his fellows on the opposite shore to drag him down.

    They will not help him, up or back.

    They care neither for him nor Australia.

    Be rescued, Brendan Nelson.

    Leave the Libs. They hate you.

    You could lead an exemplary life. If you would just do itl

  11. Aunty Fay you’re referring to Crikey ?

    Kevin07 in his speech quoted a stolen story because HE spoke to her on Sunday

    Brendon in his speech quoted a stolen story he had not spoken to at all and then took her fathers comments out of context to justify taking Aunty Fay away
    It seems Brendon’s speech writer and/or researcher should be sacked

  12. Ron
    the rodent has gone, i love pina colada’s like nobody else :0

    leave the kitten playing with the the ball of wool-it cant do any harm outside the house

    if by trying to lift our standards we can encourage others too as well then i say well and good

    labor has given this nation its soul back and by its softly softly approach will smooth the way to a more open caring society that can intelligent discuss points of view.
    not all will agree with everything but the chance to voice our opinion again unfettered by political dogma should lead us back to the pre-eminence and respect we once had on the world stage in so many areas.

    Crikey

    Brendan could do some good in the libs and actually may be able to inject a bit of culture shock before too late-otherwise its the long dark night of the soul…

  13. Gusface no matter how badly Labor ran Australia for 13 years under Keating and Hawke we Liberals never said that you’d taken away Australia’s soul.

    And even when we apologise for the forced removals we’re again told we’re trying to take away the country’s soul get over yourself.

  14. No 124

    The woman is over exaggerating for no reason. What a ridiculous thing to say: “I feel like I’ve been stolen all over again”.

  15. glen
    i voted for that !@#$$%^&&***((())(*&^%$#$@@@!@#$%$^&**(())(*&^%#@@!#$$%$ john winston howard and the !@!@!@$%^&*()())__)_+_+_(_*_)& liberals till Rudd appeared on the scene
    so dont lecture anyone here or presume they are leftards or rightards.

    admit your party was morally bankrupt and captive of extreme ideology and it will
    energise both yourself and your party.
    be open to why people voted as they did

    what did howard do that made you cry with pride to be an australian

  16. Glen – One doesn’t begin by pronouncing about the awful experience of others, either in individual, cases or generally. That’s what got Brendan into trouble.

    When allegations are made, the first thing you do is you listen carefully and objectively to the people who say they were victims. Take their evidence, and a picture will emerge. This was done in the case of allegations of forced separation from aboriginal communities and reported on in detail ten years ago, and the picture certainly emerged.
    Whatever you think, there are a lot of people who feel their lives have been trampled on.
    Now, to say to those people as you are effectively doing, “But wait a minute, you are not entitled to feel the way you do, because the people who hurt you were well intentioned.” is grossly unreasonable on any moral level.

  17. No 129

    Whatever you think, there are a lot of people who feel their lives have been trampled on.

    That’s because they’ve always been made to feel like victims through the policies of successive governments.

  18. gusface.

    I doubt very much that the Libs will learn the meaning of ‘soul’ anytime soon. They may begin to realise, over the next, say three years, once the Senate is again in the hands of the populace, that the people are interested, and that we matter.

    And may be more so once the Government and the Parliament, in the first place, the Reps, are seen to be responsive to the, yes I know, ‘will of the people.’

    Something of which is already in the air. I breathe, too.

  19. i never said that but the fact is most removals were done by well intentioned people you cannot hide away that fact, it doesnt make removals for no reason any better they just make it easier to understand the situation.

    Howard’s intervention in East Timor made me proud to be an Australian and helping to give democracy to the Iraqis and Afghanis as well just so you know Gusface.

  20. “Howard waged war against mindless pathetic leftard bullshit”

    and he lost !!!

    and he lost his own seat !!!

    and he has lost his political legacy now

    and you have lost any culture…oh dear

  21. Gp@130
    your words give away your feelings

    see the leftards and the rightards are both responsible for the aboriginal problem

    to move forward in any area/issue you acknowledge guilt and take measures to ensure it doesnt happen again,this requires both maturity and compassion

    and one word “sorry”

    to wage war against mindless pathetic leftard bullshit you might as well use a kitten as a political party

    enjoy the ball of wool

  22. Glen – They were well intentioned people – they could easily have been members of my family. But with the benefit of a few decades they can be seen to have been wrong wrong wrong. Just as the White Australia policy, with the benefit of a few decades, can also now be seen to be wrong wrong wrong.

    The term ‘well intentioned’ means nothing. The point is the EFFECT of the actions, well intentioned or not, on large numbers of people.

    I mean the doctors who injected thalidomide into pregnant women at around the same time were ‘well intentioned” too. That doesn’t mean that the everyone should withhold sorrow for the children born with deformities.

    Surely, you must get the point.

  23. gusface then you must also be sorry for the left’s political correctness that has helped foster the current child abuse taking place in aboriginal communities.

  24. Glen
    “Howard’s intervention in East Timor made me proud to be an Australian and helping to give democracy to the Iraqis and Afghanis as well just so you know Gusface.”

    pride in being a pawn as part of a regional geopolitical chess game?

    we did what was required lab or lib it would have occurred

    anything else?

  25. if it had not been for this fear of removing children from any circumstances we may have been able to protect some of the children who have and continue to be abused in some aboriginal communities but we’ve all be scared into doing nothing thanks to political correctness gone mad from the Left!

  26. 139
    Chris in LDN
    Howard won the ‘culture wars’ (for a while)

    every sembalance of ‘howardism’ will be removed by Rudd
    and Howard consigned to a historical oddity

  27. Glen@137
    childrens welfare is not new no
    “The entrepreneurialism of Dr Thomas Barnardo finds an echo in many youth, community and voluntary organizations in which informal educators function. His methods – the use of outreach, the emphasis on education and training, and upon creating an environment where the well-being of the child or young person comes into focus are also familiar. He also professed a concern for the whole person (although just how he interpreted it is a matter of some debate). ”

    this is from the 1870’s in england -the point being that it aint a “black problem”

    the issue is that a GRAVE injustice occurred under fed gvt policy continously since in effect Federation (Nb i did not mention either party)

    once we accept that simple idea then as a nation we can heal that dark part of our history

    ps you know i have raved about canada before-check out their relations with their indigenes ,not perfect but certainly food for thought

  28. Gusface #128,

    That sounds familisr. In 2001, I voted for Howard because I didn’t want an inexperienced government just after 9/11. In 2004, I voted for Howard because the alternative was Latham. In 2007 – Kevin all the way. After WorkChoices, I vowed “I will never vote for the Liberal Party again”. Thus far, the “new and inproved” Liberal Party has done nothing to make me reevaluate my decision.

    GP #130,

    Having watched you and your opponents in action for some time, my considered advice to you is : grow up. If you want to sway opinions towards you, you are certainly going about it the wrong way.

  29. Ron at 141

    I realise that all that will removed by rudd. Part of what I liked about Rudd’s speech was his rebuttal of Howard’s arguments.

    Btw, it was covered on the BBC’s main news bulletin fora bout 5 mins, which is more coverage than I’ve seen “international statesman” JWH get in the past 5 years. Even his visits to London were ignored by the press here, if I didn’t read Australian papers online you wouldn’t know he had even been. Which shows how ridiculous it is that QEII is our head of state. But that’s the next battle to be fought. 😀 And Kev’s just the man to do it.

  30. Mathew Cole
    im ashamed to say it

    but if its wasnt for Howard (and worstchoices) i would never have blogged. 🙁

    so i suppose i owe him on two accounts 🙁

    though i hope to redeem myself 🙂

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