Michigan thread

To celebrate today’s primaries in Michigan, I hereby present presidential election open thread number two.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

491 comments on “Michigan thread”

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  4. Adam

    thank you for that ( i must have misssed your earlier republican musings)

    what im intrigued about McCain is that in some senses he fits a quite progressive stance in some respects and has a lacklustre field to contend with.

    that said who would be VP would be most intriguing-would bloomberg then come in as a possible factor?

    is their any other “dark horses” that may appear (both dem and rep)?

  6. From all accounts Juan Cole doesn’t like Israel so no wonder he’s your Hero KR!

    The democrats dont have a strategy they have withdrawal, the Republicans are the only Party to have a credible policy on Iraq funny how quiet the liberal media has got about the Surge being a success they hate being wrong and boy were they wrong about the Surge. The democrats are once again using popularism to try and win votes but at the cost of American and Middle Eastern security.

  7. Yeah, those democrats and their popularism…wait, what the hell was the last 8 years again?
    Boy, sure would prefer to have a beer with a born again Christian recovering alcoholic…sound like my idea of a blast! At least he’s not a snooty liberal!

  9. Glen

    Iraq is not a point scoring competition here,rather lets express a view and then move on (yes i agree to our Occupation -doesnt mean totally agreement with every aspect)

    “From all accounts Juan Cole doesn’t like Israel so no wonder he’s your Hero KR!”

    Glen actually the art of reasoning/debating is sometimes to accept an alternate view without rubbishing the messenger

    BTW
    who do you think the dems will elect as their candidate

  10. Probably Clinton but i dont know its either Giuliani or McCain for the Republicans but ill save my final prediction till Jan 30 after the Florida Primary…

  11. glen

    do you mean Jeb’s going to throw his hat in the ring 🙂

    Adam is right regarding Giuliani,and i believe his selection would fatal to the republicans chances

  12. 158
    Megan

    Really good article, about something so important that it’s a pity it gets overlooked by most people.

    What puzzles me is why America is still so frightened to let go of the strictures of Christianity. Clearly, Europe has turned its cathedrals into landmarks and museums and even the Italians have one of the lowest birth rates of the continent. America has never had the intellectual tradition that questioned religion, there’s no Nietzsche to proclaim that ‘god is dead’, and instead they hold onto that fearful puritanism that shudders at the thought that humans could ever design their own morality to include everyone.

    Of course the entire universe would implode if two people of the same gender could marry, despite the fact that ‘catholic’ Spain allows such unions! In some ways America is still a ‘frontier’ that was once fearful of natives and wild animals, but now seems forever afraid of some dark force that will confront their beliefs and leave them bereft of certainty. Evolution is one such idea, and despite the abundance of evidence for the process on this planet, they refuse to let go of their Genesis myths!

    Like children that cannot grow up, they must not let themselves ever doubt Santa or else everything crumbles.

  13. Glen you seem to be under the common misapprehension that the Arabs were the aggressor in 1948. In fact the Haganah and Palmach started attacking towns and villages in the areas assigned to Palestinians in 1947 (Qazaza on 21 Dec), about 5 months before partition and launched the so called Plan D, aka Plan Dalet from April 1st 1948 taking large areas of Palestinian land well before Israel became a state at midnight 14 May 1948.

    “Before the end of the [British] mandate and, therefore before any possible intervention by Arab states, the J*ws, taking advantage of their superior military preparation and organization, had occupied…most of the Arab cities in Palestine before May 15, 1948. Tiberias was occupied on April 19, 1948, Haifa on April 22, Jaffa on April 28, the Arab quarters in the New City of Jerusalem on April 30, Beisan on May 8, Safad on May 10 and Acre on May 14, 1948…In contrast, the Palestine Arabs did not seize any of the territories reserved for the J*wish state under the partition resolution.”
    Henry Cattan, “Palestine, The Arabs and Israel.” 1969

    The 1973 Yom Kippur War was the only one that wasn’t a war of choice for Israel. Something acknowledged by those who started them, but apparently saying so gets some here questioning if you’re an anti semite. If so, I have lots of company, including David Ben-Gurion, Menachem Begin, Moshe Dyan, Yitzhak Rabin and Shlomo Ben-Ami.

  14. I would say the “default position” for this election is that the Dems will win. That’s what you’d expect after a two-term Repub presidency, especially one as bad as GWB’s has been. But the Dems can still blow it if they pick a bad candidate and the Repubs manage to unite behind their best candidate. For the Dems “a bad candidate” means anyone but Clinton as far I’m concerned. Even after GWB, the electorate will not be keen on electing a northern liberal Dem. For the Repubs, they can’t unite behind Romney (a Mormon and a phony), Giuliani (too liberal and a sleaze) or Huckabee (too right-wing). They might be able to unite behind McCain. Clinton will easily beat anyone except McCain. She will probably beat McCain but it would be a fight. Obama or Edwards would struggle against anyone, and would lose to McCain. That’s my view and I’m sticking to it.

  15. KR @ 162 – what makes it even more puzzling is that the founding fathhers were very wary of religion and went to some lengths to keep it and the state separate. I’m sure they’d be horrified to see the 10 commandments given prominence in many government buildings, for example. And even more so if they were aware that the commandments usually quoted aren’t even the right ones.

  17. Adam! Since you’re still around… Do you think that Hillary being the Democratic candidate will increase the Republican turnout? They seem to *really* hate her, though it seems pretty irrational to me.

  18. Yes, I think this will be a high-turnout election on both sides. For all the leftwing commentariat’s view that there is no difference between the two parties, partisan sentiment is very high. The Dems will be determined to get the Repubs out, and the Repubs will be determined to stop them. The Repubs do indeed loathe Clinton, but no more than the Dems loathe the Repubs. Clinton is a polariser, she is both loved and hated in equal measure. I don’t see anything wrong with that. Those who argue that Clinton will just be the same-old-same-old might ask themselves why the legion of rightwing frothers and scribblers hate her so much.

  20. “Those who argue that Clinton will just be the same-old-same-old might ask themselves why the legion of rightwing frothers and scribblers hate her so much.”

    I *have* wondered that. Originally I presumed it was because she was married to Bill, and a) they’re still in a self-righteous rage about Monica, and b) they still can’t understand why their bleating about Monica lead to the Dems doing well in 1998.

    Hating Hillary can’t be Bill’s politics (although he did let gays into the military); he cut welfare and balanced the budget. She did try to improve public health, but was ultimately unsuccessful. She’s hardly a screaming liberal.

    Eventually I’ve just given up trying to explain it assuming rational thought. American politics is very partisan by Aussie standards, and Hillary-hatred by conservatives smacks of Goldstein and the Two Minutes of Hate.

    It’s interesting that you think Hillary will increase blue turnout as well as red; I had thought that Obama and Edwards both appeal more to the more progressive Dem base. That didn’t seem to happen in Iowa, though. Where is Hillary’s support in primaries coming from?

  22. “Those who argue that Clinton will just be the same-old-same-old might ask themselves why the legion of rightwing frothers and scribblers hate her so much.”
    It has nothing to do with Bill or anything he did- she comes across as a strong, intelligent woman who thinks for herself and has, at times, expressed some progressive opinions- it’s as simple as that. Nothing else (not even a flaming queen) can cause said frothers to, well, froth- not to mention gibber and flop around on the floor, twitching spasmodically like a beached mackerel, as a woman who fits that description. Something to do, I imagine, with deep-seated fears of emasculation.
    Conservative women (by which I mean those who toe the party line) are apparently given provisional exemption (being allowed out of the kitchen and all). The Congresswoman from my own district is Marilyn Musgrave, Republican, hard-as-nails, but she loves guns and sponsored the proposed Constitutional amendment outlawing gay marriage. Can’t keep *her* out of the club.
    On a completely different subject, I would have to say that the issue of experience doesn’t seem to be playing the role that political observers (and certain campaigns) expect it to. Experience, after all, hasn’t exactly stood us in good stead over the last eight years- the good ole boy elected (or not elected, as the case may be) in 2000 didn’t have much on his own account, but we were going to be in safe hands because his administration would be filled by guys (and they were, almost unanimously) who had *gravitas.* Dick Cheney, Don Rumsfeld, Paul Wolfowitz, et al. Experience, in these circumstances, is an easily over-rated quality. As Hillary found out in Iowa, when her entire campaign came to revolve around the issue of Obama’s experience, and as Romney and, to a lesser extent, McCain, have discovered on the Republican side.

  23. “A new Post-ABC News poll shows that black Democrats nationwide support Barack Obama over Hillary Clinton for the presidential nomination by nearly 2 to 1. This striking reversal — a month ago, Clinton held a big lead among African Americans — is perhaps why race has suddenly become such a hot issue in a campaign that previously had dodged the subject.”
    http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/01/14/AR2008011402082.html?hpid=opinionsbox1

    Which would suggest that South Carolina is out of the question, Clintonians.

  24. And to those still claiming an even money bet between Dems and Republicans, this is the canvas the Republicans are painting on, mavericks or no:

    ‘Gary Langer writes for ABC News about the latest Washington Post-ABC News Poll: “Seventy-nine percent of Americans say the next president should set the nation on a new course rather than following the direction in which Bush has been leading. (And two-thirds feel that way strongly.)

    “For the first time this is even more than said so about Bush’s father, 75 percent, the summer before he was voted out of office in 1992. And it’s vastly more than the most who ever wanted a new direction after Reagan (58 percent) or Bill Clinton (48 percent).’

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/blog/2008/01/15/BL2008011501561.html?hpid=opinionsbox1

  25. Pancho @ 174 – thanks for that link on the mood for change – that directly addresses one of last night’s discussion points – whether or the desire for a new direction is sufficient across thhe board for the ‘black northern liberal’ (Obama) or a ‘southern white liberal’ (Edwards) to be a viable candidate for the Dems., with Clinton left behind as representing old politics by comparison.
    As the article says, all candidates will attempt to represent a change in direction, but it will be easier for some than for others.

    Adam @ 164 doesn’t think so, and reckons Clinton is the Dems only choice, but I’m hoping for better, and that poll is a positive.

  26. This from the Guardian article linked earlier:
    (Clinton has not campaigned here, but the fact that her name is on the ballot has angered supporters of the other main contestants. A new web-based movement called Detroit for Uncommitted Voters is urging people to mark ballots with “uncommitted” – the other option on the ballot.)

    Does anyone know what are the policies of this new candidate Mr/Ms Uncommitted, is he/she pro Iraq war, anti A*ab, pro I**el, g*y m*rriage? Hey, you gotta love the Yanks, their politics are really a delight to behold.

  27. ps, sorry about all the *, just making sure it gets past all the special interest lobby groups who seem to write the filters these days 🙂

  28. 163
    MayoFeral – the fact is that the Palestinians and the Arabs did not agree to the 1947 UN partition plan had they done so Israel given its position would not have opted for pushed for war in 1948 and neither would the Arabs given the position of a Palestinian State just created. All the Palestinians had to do was accept the deal they didnt and it hasnt brought them much happiness, the argument that some posit about the J*wish people stealing Arab lands is baloney, the j*wish people were around in Palestine for hundreds if not thousands of years they have just a right to land as the Palestinians.

    On Michigan

    If Romney loses he’s out but he’ll fight it out to the end.
    If McCain wins it he could get SC and come close in Florida…based on ‘Mo’ alone.

  29. Immortal words for the day, spoken in Crawford, Texas by their most famous ex-resident
    “Home is important. It’s important to have a home.”

    BTW Michigan has the highest Arab American population in the US with 500,000 or 5% of the voters. And they are being urged to vote for Ron Paul and Denis Kucinich.

  31. Basil@176, while it is sort of moot, given that Michigan delegates aren’t allowed to the conference, it would be a slap in the face to Hillary if uncommitted got a vote anywhere near hers. It would indicate the bad tactics employed by her in remaining on the ballot, as well as her personal level of divisiness, even within the Dems.

  32. Poll-bludging punters – Betfair – McCain out to $2.44 again this morning for Republican nominee, no doubt on the strength of Romney in Michigan.
    Romney is at $1.20 for Michigan, with McCain at $4.30.
    Right now and again after the Michigan result is known if Romney wins or it is close, are the obvious times to start backing McCain for the Republican nomination. 6/4 against may not be seen for long.

  33. Intelligent and honest Zionists as distinct from the starry-eyed Israel devotees (strangely like Cuba enthuasiasts) admit that the partition plan was not sustainable even if the Arabs had accepted it:
    “if one looks at the 1947 partition map, the Jewish state born from it would have been a cripple, three unconnected limbs of Mandate Palestine separated by Arab corridors and minus Jerusalem and half the Galilee. It is impossible to envision such an Israel having continued to exist for long—nor did it, for in the fighting that broke out after Arab rejection of partition, it enlarged itself by half, joined its severed parts, and carved out a link to Jerusalem, whose Jewish half became its capital…For it is clear today that even had the Arabs accepted partition, Israel would eventually have had to go to war to break out of its straitjacket. Although not discussed openly, this was something understood by most Zionist leaders in agreeing to partition” (in the neo-con journal Commentary http://www.commentarymagazine.com/viewarticle.cfm/The-Peace-Planners-Strike-Again-11022)

  35. More evidence that a new even-handed US and World community approach is desperately needed. It requires first a non-Republican and non-Clinton White House.

    “At least 20 killed in Gaza violence
    9:17AM | Israeli troops killed 19 Palestinians on Tuesday, including the son of a top Hamas leader, as fighting erupted around the Gaza Strip a day after the start of key Middle East peace talks. ” (SMH)

  39. Really you leftoids are kidding yourselves big time if you think that ANY conceivable US President is going to take an anti-Israel position. It just isn’t going to happen.

    If that exit poll is an accurate forecast of what will happen tonight, it’s a very bad outcome for the Repubs. Mr Big Phony Romney survives, McCain does well but not well enough to become undisputed front-runner, Huckabee also survives. The longer the Repubs have no candidate, the better for Clinton.

  42. Thanks Diogenes – If he’s gone off in a huff, McCain probably knows more than just the early exit polls.
    McCain still favourite for the nomination. When the Michigan result is conclusive will be the time to back McCain for the Repub nomination at anything better than even money.

    Adam @ 188 – That’s right, of course no candidate can adopt ‘an anti-Israel position’ but they can move carefully to a more inclusive position with recognition of Palestinian rights as well. Of course the Israeli hard-liners will kick, but that’s just part of the political management of change. It isn’t an either/or thing, so there’s no value in talking in absolutes like that.

  43. Jaundiced – and I might add, a more nuanced approach than Bush’s of 2000 when he claimed that he wanted to stay out of Palestine/Israel. That worked well. 7 years in now, and he’s gonna solve it within a year.

  44. I have no opinion of Ron Paul other than that he’s a fringe candidate who will soon disappear.

    Yes, I would believe the vitriol directed at McCain by the extreme right – they’re a nasty lot who would rather lose the election that endorse a candidate who doesn’t share their views. More power to them, I say.

  45. I don’t see how a (small) loss for McCain in Michigan is a serious problem. If Romney cannot win that state, he won’t win one more significant primary or caucas. Of much, much greater importance are the results in South Carolina (which will give an indication of whether McCain can activate the Republican base) and Florida (which will indicate popular support)

    And to those who subscribe to the “Democrats need only Ohio” school of thought, think again. If McCain gets the nomination and has a polarising opponent like Clinton, the following supposedly “blue” and “purple” states that voted for Kerry will come into play:

    New Hampshire
    Minnesota
    Wisconsin
    Pennsylvania

    And before you scoff at these suggestions, think about the transformation of Iowa and Vermont, among others

    There’s about 65 electoral college votes there. More than enough to offset likely Democrat wins in Ohio and perhaps Virginia due to Mark Warner coat-tails

  46. Glen @ 178 says:
    “…the argument that some posit about the J*wish people stealing Arab lands is baloney…”

    These people had legal title to their land, Glen, and this was torn up with no compensation. Many were forcibly removed from properties that their families had had title to for generations. How is this “baloney”?

  47. McCain out to around $2.80 (still clear favourite) now for the Republican nomination – the Michigan result is helping already – get ready to pounce!

  50. There is quite a push to get Democratic voters to use their vote for Romney, apparently, as Romney is seen by Democrats as their dream candidate ie completely beatable.

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