Michigan thread

To celebrate today’s primaries in Michigan, I hereby present presidential election open thread number two.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

491 comments on “Michigan thread”

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  1. Adam @ 92 – Well, I remain hopeful that the extreme evangelicals and the less educated racists in the US you describe are not so numerous they hold the result of the election in their hands alone. If not they can be drawn towards accepting a more even-handed approach by the White house if a change agent (Ob or Ed) gets the nod from the Dems. It’s just a matter of convincing the fearful a mid-east solution is in their interests (which it most certainly is).

    ESJ @ 93 – [Basically most Western lefties think sacrificing Israel would solve all of the world’s problems, how convenient hey? Essentially Israel is a strong bulwark for the West which should be defended.]
    You’ve set up a false dilemma there ESJ –
    It isn’t a simple choice between sacrificing Israel or maintaining the status quo. Israel can still be supported, but not at the exclusion of Palestinian interests, which is the current practical reality.

  2. I think its widely optimistic to think the Democrats will win the Presidency regardless of who their opponents are, its excessively arrogant IMHO, personally if the Republicans nominate Giuliani, the Dems are going to have to fight hard to save Pennsylvania and States on the West Coast and the Mid West because he can bring out the independents on his side.

    The Democrats dont have this one in the bag, both sides have people who are questionable, i mean lets see for the Democrats we have a 1 term Senator with no foreign policy experience, a has been 2 term Senator who is so divisive that 50% of Americans would not vote for her, and a Southern Senator who’s as radical as the Greens. For the Republican side you have a 71 senior citizen who’s had no executive experience in politics, a catholic who’s had three marriages, a baptist preacher who doesnt believe in evolution, a washed up TV star and to top it off a Morman millionaire.

    Let’s face it regardless of who wins the nominations of either party the November Elections is going to be very dirty indeed.

    94
    Rain is right we’ll be able to see whether its McCain or Giuliani after Feb5 its anybody’s guess but IMHO it comes down to Florida if Rudy wins it he’s the favourite for the nomination.

    Ok now for J.ws and Israel/Palestine
    Is it just me or does it sound stupid to create a State who is currently divided between a former terrorist organisation Fatah and a current terrorist organisation Hamas who are in a quasi battle for the nation?? The Palestinians are a joke and they don’t deserve to be a nation of itself not when it is a failed State. The Palestinians were greedy in 1948 and if they’d agreed to the terms the UN laid out they’d have their independence and a considerable if not larger portion of Palestine than the Israelis. IMHO before they can be a State, Hamas needs to be eliminated either arm Fatah to the gills and send them in there with Israeli support of flatten Gaza and destroy Hamas their and get Fatah back in power there.

  3. Israel’s socialist tradition is now pretty much dead, and probably just as well since as we know socialism only perpetuates poverty. At the last election Labour polled 15% of the vote.

  4. I think JV about 70% of the Israeli population would grab a VIABLE 2 state solution with open hands. Unfortunately there is no one who could deliver that on the Palestinian side.

  5. MayoFeral @ 77 wrote:

    “Nor do I see any great difference between Clinton, Obama and the Repubs on Iraq (or Iran). Only one of the candidates, Edwards, has explicitely promised to not only withdraw combat troops from Iraq, but also close the ‘enduring’ bases. Whether he could actually keep the promise is a moot point”

    Adam’s absolute dismissal of Obama as a liberal novelty is par for the course. Misrepresenting Obama on the issues is abit different, the below link may solve any confusion you have over what he stands for in regards to Iraq. It’s pretty explicit in it’s commitments.

    http://www.barackobama.com/issues/iraq/

  7. They got 3.8%. The whole left, including the Arab lists, got about 25%. That election was of course dominated by Sharon’s Kadima, which will collapse without him. The left will probably recoup some ground next time, although almost certainly Likud will bounce back and win on a “win the war” platform.

  8. ESJ @ 104 – That level of support in Israel (if real – I didn’t see the question!) would be one of the justifications for the US trying for it isn’t it? Naturally the Palestinians are suspicious at the moment. But if they could see a genuine bilateral approach then they would be on board for an effort to resolve I reckon.

  10. JV,

    A deal for Israel would be painful because the 30% are fairly implacable.

    Firstly:

    What country willingly gives up territory? Not many examples in history

    Secondly:

    Why destablise your society when the Palestinians are incapable of delivering a deal? Essentially the Palestinian “leadership” cant deliver and wont risk trying because of the irredentism and fanaticism in the Arab speaking world.

  12. I still think edwards is the most electable. Well off, from the South, born to a poor family, aesthetically pleasing. Native son effect helps for those 15 electoral college votes in North Carolina.

    Now is not the time for gambles,risks token politics. The prize is so great the consiquences of loosing infathomable. Imagine Social democratic governments in Austria, Australia, NZ, UK, USA, Spain, Italy, Brazil, chile argentina (and other smaller countries) at the same time. Japs look likeley to jump ship soon too(finally). This in turn could influece the Germans to return to normalcy. U.K Labor would have leverge in the event of minority govt.

    Thats once in a lifetime stuff. Why take chances? especially with judge appointments, recession and global warming to consider. A campaign should be judged by the worst case scenario.

  13. Likud will do well and probably win the next election with Olmert and Kadima reduced to an insignificant rump in the Knesset but the Labor Party with Ehud Barak could increase their position in Parliament perhaps in a coalition government as most Israeli governments are.

  14. 111
    Diogenes – Troy Buswell has the numbers and Omodei is going to be dumped if the Liberals want any chance of beating Carpenter now matter how unpopular his government is with the people of WA unless Omodei is replaced the ALP will win hands down.

  16. Adam:

    You’re right about the USA – and Australia – a lot of people are very anti-Muslim – for example, a lot of Muslim phrases (such as “All?hu Akbar” and “Jihad”) have become severely tainted and negatively associated for many non-muslims due to their constant use by certain people.

  17. ESJ @ 110 – Yes I agree it wouldn’t be easy. But, are you familiar with the principles of mediation? Possibly not. An early step in resolving a conflict is to identify the genuine obstacles to agreement. Granted, a long list in this case, on both sides of the ledger, but you have to start somewhere.
    On your two obstacles:
    1. Land. Perhaps giving up some land is easier if you haven’t had it in your possession for very long, and there is an uneasy sense of disentitlement out there, generally unspoken, in the community. And you don’t have to give up all of it. The extremists can be sidelined this way.
    2. Palestinian extremism. The Palestinians will come to the table perhaps if they believe they will achieve something tangible from being there. The extremists can again be sidelined this way.
    If only the UN could be involved somewhere along the line.
    Regardless – there’s no choice anyway – attempts at resolution have to keep being made, and Ob or Ed for the Dems are the best hopes for that.

  19. 75% of Americans thought Team America: World Police was a documentary.

    (Well, I made that up. But it’s probably true. “I’m a wery busy man, Mr Brix.”)

  20. 117
    jaundiced view – The UN was involved from the beginning but the Palestinians and the Arabs rejected the 1948 partition that would have given the Palestinians more territory and Statehood they were offered a good deal and they gave it the bird and look where its got them. This should have been solved in 1948 but one side (Palestinians) didnt think the other should have any substantial land holding in what was then Palestine.

    So long as a territory is used for terrorist actions they should never be legitimised as a sovereign nation and that means unless the Palestinians reject violence and terrorist they do not deserve to be a State.

    As far as im concerned the Palestinians were greedy in 1948 and they got their just desserts IMHO!

  24. The Israel is democratic defence is silly. How democratic? Do palestinians in the territories get a vote? Are non ultra orthadox jews considered second class citezens in issues such as conscription? Does isreal have an illegal nuclear program. I dont support any nuclear intentions of iran but think of logically. Pakistan to the east has them and Israel to the west. Have the israelie intelligence agencies gone on killing rampages in europe under the noses of their suppossed allies? DO they have laws that would be considered unconstitutional in most OECD countries?

    Israel’s democracy is bannana republic/ West Africa standard. Most of the dictatorships have in the middle east have been supported indirectally and directally by the west. I rember a certain Shah of iran who was supported during calls for democracy? Places like syria popular discontent is surpressed by diverting their attention to the actions of israel. ive heard them say palestine first democracy second.

    Israel also uses its lobby groups to directly influence other countries policy. Imagine if the Alp was funding the democrats!!!!!

    At least some of their leaders were more admirable R.I.P Yitzhak Rabin 🙁

    Nothing against hebrew peoples. Infact maybe this can help unite the middle east. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3UO6YlkYNJQ

  25. The Great Luxembourg-Paraguay War of 1981. It was prevented by one phone call from the Secretary-General, who explained that a certain phrase in Luxembourgeois, used during a speech by the Grand Duke Alphonse XIII, does not mean “all Paraguayans are venereally-diseased dogs” as was first thought. The Paraguayan battle fleet was turned back just before it reached the coast of Luxembourg.

  27. 120 Glen said –
    [The UN was involved from the beginning but the Palestinians and the Arabs rejected the 1948 partition]

    Well, it isn’t 1948 now. Everything is different. Although it’s true the Security Council dynamics would need to change – another job for the Democrat White House of Ob or Ed after November. The UN involvement is just another hope – a general umbrella over the mediation efforts of some eminent group of individuals perhaps.

    [unless the Palestinians reject violence and terrorist they do not deserve to be a State]

    This is just another obstacle being thrown in the way, just like it was with the Irish question under Maggie Thatcher et al. It should be done the way the Irish question was eventually resolved – ceasing of hostilities being integral to the deal-making which must be shown to be genuine by the mediators, and once it starts peace is one of the conditions of the mediation process continuing and of further compromise by both sides.

  29. Adam its nice to know that even those who disagree so much can agree once in awhile for anybody who doesn’t know what the Palestinians would have got were they not so greedy here is a picture of the proposed UN partition of 1947.

    “The land allocated to the Arab state (about 43% of Mandatory Palestine[5]) consisted of all of the highlands, except for Jerusalem, plus one third of the coastline. The Jewish state was to receive 56% of Mandatory Palestine, a slightly larger area to accommodate the increasing numbers of Jews who would immigrate there.[5] The state included three fertile lowland plains — the Sharon on the coast, the Jezreel Valley and the upper Jordan Valley.”

    IMHO if the Palestinians today were offered that deal to have 43% of Palestine they take it in the blink of an eye, they just got greedy i mean the 13% more Israel got was made up of the Negev and they’d be split almost into 3 enclaves in Palestine. They could have had a State with 43% of Palestine and Jerusalem under a UN mandate ala Danzig but they were not willing to make compromises nuff said.

  30. Actually JV, Northern Ireland was “solved” because the IRA realised the British State would never be beaten, the IRA blinked. Your example proves the point about the Palestinians.

  31. It took the IRA 30 odd years to take the deal it was first offered at Sunningdale in 1974. Someone called the Good Friday Agreement “Sunningdale for slow learners”

  32. 124
    Scotty

    It is considered impolite, nay vulgar, to actually point out that Israel is an apartheid state that occupies the land of millions of people and is not in fact a democracy as we define it, and that furthermore, it’s got a long history of acts of terrorism (think, the King David Hotel for starters).

    Sorry, you just CANNOT ever say that, or you will be quietly removed by MOSSAD and disposed of.

    Take care!

  33. 132
    Kirribilli Removals the Palestinians could have had 43% of what was Palestine but now what do they have a rump in Gaza and the West Bank spotted with settlements. They could have accepted Israel’s right to exist and to have a stake in the region but they didnt and they were greedy so look at the consequences when people get greedy they’ll end up like the Palestinian Territory.

  34. ESJ @ 122 – I’m not here to defend the record of the UN on stopping wars that have already started – the Security Council structure and the veto have been extremely limiting hobbles there. How many wars have not started because of its resolutions ? I’d say quite a few but how do you establish that?

  35. Geln the arab nations got what they deserved in the first and arguabley the second arab-israeli wars. However the third arab-isralie war was not and it is the consequences of that war that is over 90 percent of the problems in the middle east today.

  37. Scotty if the Palestinians had just accepted Israels right to exist taken the 43% of Palestine on offer with Jerusalem as UN territory there would not have been 3 wars want to know why? The Israelis were according to the 47 partition would have their major cities exposed especially on the coast who were only a few km from what would have been Palestine a highly risky move. It is likely then with the UN involved in Jerusalem that there would not have been the 3 wars but the Arabs and Palestinians were greedy and they got what they deserved a rump territory with a people now not fit to enter themselves as a free and sovereign nation of the globe.

    IMHO they blew it in 47 by not agreeing to the UN partition and tough!

  38. Glen, let’s just pretend it is your land that was taken…..as decreed by others….wouldn’t you feel a sense of injustice and try and get as much of the land back as possible? In hindsight it is easy to say they should have accepted, but they were understandably aggrieved. I think greedy is a strange term to describe wanting something that was yours…..your heritage, inherited lands…imagine trying to survive in a refugee camp while others are enjoying the fruits of your family’s orchards,etc.
    What was the old song…”Walk a mile in my shoes..”?

  39. Adam or to anyone really
    Do you believe with hindsight John Kerry was a better choice than Howard Dean?
    What policies of Hillary’s do you believe are superior to Obama’s?
    Outside of being first lady, what experience of hers are you counting on?
    While obviously a vastly different environment (USA vs Aus), can you see parallels between a candidate arguing for change vs one arguing for experience and stability?
    Do you approve of Hillary’s campaign tactics so far?

    Ta in advance

  40. It’s truly incomprehensible to me why anyone would consider having your land stolen, family members killed, your towns destroyed and your way of life completely obliterated by people from somewhere else not a thing you could just accept!

    Especially when it was being foistered upon you by those very Europeans who’d done their darnest to exterminate those people doing the invading.

    Ungrateful Arabs! Deserve all they got…ie nothing!

    yep, that seems fair, and what do they do? Shoot rockets at the nice people who ‘liberated’ their land!

    How ungrateful can you get, eh?

  44. Glen i dont think the great grandchildren should suffering for the stupidy of a couple of inbread monrachs. The first war was before Egypt was even a republic. How long will 1949 be an excuse to do the wrong thing? Imagine if we were suffering for something Henry VIII did!!!!! Really. Infact if anything Israel was probably being treated unfairly in 47. 🙂

  45. Adam @ 82:

    Once again, the assumption is that US politicians only support Israel because they feel obliged to, or because AIPAC forces them to. This is crap.

    Yes, but only to a point. For example, Bush has pretty much neglected Israel throughout both his terms. Even this latest effort is about George W Bush and his place in history rather than Israel.

    TurningWorm @ 105 – Sorry, but I have not seen Obama unequivacly commit to a complete withdrawal from Iraq within a reasonable timetable – years rather than decades. He’s promises are almost always refer only to “combat troops” which is not the same as a complete withdrawal. Of the 200,000 troops presently there perhaps 95,000 are “combat troops”

    His website does state he will not build any bases in Iraq, but then he doesn’t have to, they’ve already build 10 of the biggest in the world at huge expense. Then there’s that embassy.

    I do give him credit for wanting a rewrite of the Iraqi constitution given the crap that the US insisted on being in the current one.

  46. Gusface, I’ve said several times that McCain is my Repub choice, both in the sense that he is a superior human being to the rest and in the sense that he is best placed to beat Clinton. Romney is a phony, Giuliani is a sleaze and a crook, Huckabee is a crackpot (although quite a nice man apparently) and Thompson appears to be asleep.

  47. Kirribilli Removals @ 132. In light of Additional infomation that has come to my attention. Israel is the most democratic and law abiding country on the planet. My earlier comment were inappropriate and clearly the work of hamas. Everything was fully the fault of the Palestinians and israel does not immorally influence other countries policy. The mossad is also not real.

  50. 148 – if the Dems win the presidential they will likely be destroyed in the house and senate – note that this election is even more risky for the repubs than the last one in terms of which seats are up for grabs.

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