Analysis and discussion of elections and opinion polls in Australia
Morgan: 60.5-39.5
Roy Morgan’s first face-to-face poll of the Rudd era shows Labor with a predictably bloated two-party lead of 60.5-39.5. Read all about it here.
Author: William Bowe
William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.
View all posts by William Bowe
Did everyone see Clarke and Dawe last night “Brendan Nelson” interview and shadows being cast, these guys are the best satirists this country has seen for a very long time! http://www.abc.net.au/7.30/clarkedawe.htm
Jenny @ 151,
“I wonder: will the F18Fs ever get taken out of their boxes? They’re almost too expensive to fly!”
Jenny, saw a couple of ’em for sale on ebay this morning, Swannie has already started his austerity drive. Might get one for my 5 yo grandson, pretty tricky toy.
Ron at 110
Should be a quintella.
You forgot wages explosion and recession in the Howard Treasury CV!
150 MayoFeral, Yes you should apologise to the working girls, I have met a few in my time and they have a heart and a soul, unlike National Party rednecks. 😉
Arbie Jay –
your explanation fills in some gaps for me – particularly why Hicks wasn’t brought home to avoid all the protests it created at the time.
Surely there are other laws that Downer and his henchmen can be tried under if the facts come to light, apart from Gross Stupidity, which as you say there is no law against.
Should be though – you need to be reasonably intelligent to teach children or perform any other numerous positions in the community, and yet these guys could run the country (into the ground) for 11 years.
I find it remarkable that this Blog is headlined ” Morgan 60.5% – 39.5% ”
yet the discussion has been on David Hicks , AWB and F18 fighters ,
none of which were a “Political” issue in the 2007 Election campaign ,
yet we are not allowed to talk about the cause of the NT Aboriginal intervention
which WAS a ” Political” issue in the Election campaign.
Perhaps its because the defenders of the Cairns Judge & the Judicial system are
now embarassed by their defence of a grave injustice also
Jen
Nothing Dolly can be charged with, even if a record emerged proving he knew more. His defence throughout AWB that he could not recall or could not remember is unbeatable, you cannot prove that someone does recall or does remember.
As I mentioned this did not work for Bond, Williams and Adler, but also with Dolly and AWB there was no crime in offering a bribe and offering financial support to a suspected terror organisation was not a crime at the time.
Dolly did not break any law, plain and simple.
Time to deal with him would have been during Hicks time, should have put him in a prison for a while ala Hicks, whilst they worked out if they could charge him with something. Then he would have got personal experience of his favourite expression busted arse.
158
Ron I agree this blog is one of the most interesting because it facilitates general political discourse in a stimulating but very ad-hoc way, but gets off topic very quickly. Maybe the problem is the “topic” and just how much you can dissect it to death before it morphs into something else.
But that is not our province to dictate.
While Possum provides the outlet currently on your mentioned topic he is not getting the repartee that makes this site interesting.
Ron @ 158, Whilst I agree that the matters of Indigenous welfare are very serious and will possibly represent the success or failure of Kev and Co (at least to me) I am respecting William’s wishes on the matter. Although of course by posting this I am by definition in breach, apologies William.
Meanwhile, back on topic, it seems ridiculous to me to be taking opinion polls now anyway. The new Government has not had a chance to show its true mettle, Parliament has not sat, the silly season is upon us. Give us six months to evaluate how they are going, especially after Swannie’s first budget.
By the way, as many others have commented, I have just learned to stop cringing when I hear a newsreader say “the Prime Minister said today blahdeblah”. I have to keep remembering that it wont be King Rat they are referring to. Interesting psychological phenomena, wonder if the DSM-IV has that listed. Rodentaphobia perhaps, post rat stress disorder, perhaps I can get that cute psych masters grad at work to do some research with me. (Here he drifts off into fantasy)
The threads are moving a lot slower now than before the election which is obviously to be expected. Only so much can be said about this Morgan poll before it is done to death.
An issue which could cause raging debate is that of same sex couple relationships having children which was raised in a previous thread. It is a political issue!
Just been polled by Newspoll– apart from some junk shopping questions were voting intentions both Federally and locally (South Australia)– be interesting to see if Morgans results are duplicated
163
Centre
No, it is most certainly not a political issue, it is a private matter between adults, as it is for everyone else. It is only a political issue to the rabid fundamentalists who think they have a franchise on what is ‘right’.
They don’t!
My first impressions of Roxon as a Health Minister are not favourable, in fact she is almost certainly a moron. Her proposal to start with a $100M fund to increase elective surgery is a joke. There are about 700 hospitals who get the money, with about 50 being large metropolitan ones. Given that their budget is about $400M each, how is $1M going to make any appreciable difference. It will be pocketed gratefully. Roxon also makes the offensive suggestion that hospitals might perform quick-fix, shabby operations to get their hands on the money. So is she suggesting the doctors and nurses just going to take out half the cancer so their administrators can get more funding?
Diogenes,
Whilst I don’t know enough about Roxon to speculate on her IQ, I would agree with you that this proposal is obviously going to have very little effect whatsoever, and could be quite negative in some respects.
Reminds of the stunt Bob Carr pulled when he first got elected in NSW – halving the waiting lists or whatever it was. All that happened was:
– lots of administrator (and doctor) time was wasted arguing about the details of what was to be done, and after the event arguing about the numbers
– there were perverse outcomes because of the imperative to massage the numbers – ie the prioritisation of patients and procedures went off the beam
– a year or two later the whole thing might as well have never happened.
Kirribilli,
Nonesense, of course it is. But yes, it should be a private matter between adults therefore if same sex couples want to have a kid, they should go for it, on their own.
Somehow I don’t like their chances. Maybe they could start by watching that movie with DeVito and Schwarzenegger.
166 & 167
To be fair to Roxon, she is actually only doing what people want, which is to try to shorten waiting lists. The problem is that waiting lists are not the problem. If you require care urgently, you will be seen (for example, a work colleague who had a suspected brain tumour had a biopsy within about a week). To my mind, the problem is that the public want unlimited health care but are not prepared to pay unlimited taxes.
You are both right, though, that if that truly was your aim you would need substantially more than $100m.
gus Says:
“Just been polled by Newspoll”
Thanks Gus for the heads up. I guess the result will probably be out on monday night.
It will be very interesting to see if Newspoll confirms the huge ALP lead indicated by Morgan.
If it does I think the Liberal strategists can give themselves a pat on the back for pulling the ALP 2pp vote down to under 53 at the election.
Although they now face the prospect of trying to do it again but from opposition.
168
Centre
Like I said, in somewhat ironic mode, it’s only ‘political’ for those of a fundamentalist persuasion, who somehow think that their opinions are sanctified by some god almighty force, but are nothing more than bigotry wrapped in sanctimonious claptrap.
Are you putting up your hand for that position?
(And let’s not waste Williams bandwidth on this, a simple yes or no will suffice!)
For anyone who hasn’t today’s Moir cartoon in the SMH:
170 WTR
I agree – that the Libs managed to limit their losses to what we’ve ended up with is just amazing.
Hundreds of thousands of people changed their voting intention in the last 7-10 days in the face of a woeful campaign.
And from opposition they’re many many thousands of paid people down in the next round in 3 years time; who knows – they might have to even develop a few popular inclusive policies. do they even have anyone who can remmeber haow to do that?
Can same sex couples have kids, Kirribilli? A simple yes or no will suffice!
NO
The health system is apauling.
My grandma has very poor circulation and [long story short] has a wound that is not healing on the lower leg and has turned into an ulcler that is necrotic. She is experiencing pain in the big toe of the same leg. Her doctor [on an almost daily house call basis these days] has tried to get her into a circulation specialist to have special xrays and scans to see if the blood is getting to the toe, and where blockages might be, but it will not be done before February next year. Unacceptable, we said. So they tried a bit harder and could get her in to see not a circulation specialist but someone else with not as good diagnostic equipment, but not until early January.
Meawhile, the ulcer is necrotic and she is in such grave danger of loosing her leg that today they are off to the emergency dept of the hospital, armed with an eski full of food, a wheelchair and a letter from her doctor pleading her to be admitted for emergency surgery to have the necrotic flesh removed so that she doesnt have to have her 85 year old leg amputated.
Can’t tell you how pathetic it all is.
174
Centre
They can, with help, and no different to many other couples who require help.
So your real point is that you personally don’t approve of couples (of any flavour) getting help to become parents, or just specifically couples who happen to be of the same gender?
If it’s the latter, you are expressing your prejudices, and you are welcome to them.
I’m off now, but will not comment further on this topic.
173 onimod
Yes they will have to learn a few more tricks to peg back the ALP this time. It would be fun to be a fly on the wall in the next strategy meeting.
Nelson: Ok guys we’re behind in the polls – let’s work through our check list. Firstly, step up the tax payer funded ads.
Strategist (quickly and in a deep voice): Um we not in power any more
Nelson: (giggles) Oh forgot. Ok, let’s put up some ridicules red neck policy that the ALP either has to agree with for or be wedged.
Strategist: Still not in power..
Nelson: mmm, lets get our army of staffers working on…
Strategist: not there anymore, they’re sitting outside train stations with “will wedge for food” placards.
Nelson: The army could ….
Strategist: (shakes head)
Nelson: The AFP could …
Strategist: (mouths the word “no”)
Nelson: The public service…
Strategist: (raises eyebrow)
Nelson: “How the heck are we supposed to win then?”
The poll looks pretty good for what it is.
My concern is the locked in tax cuts that will ensue in the may budget and the flow on inflation effect and consequent action by the RBA.
A bold move would be to scrap the cuts and either look at the excise or the GST.
I know the excise has been looked at but I would love to be a fly on the wall at COAG than fed second hand information.
Do I smell more change in the air???
175 chino- I sympathise re your grandmother. I can assure you that it will made no difference to the chances of survival of the limb when the necrotic tissue is removed. She needs her doppler pressures measured as a minimum (they can do that in Emerg) and then an angiogram. She should mention that she has “rest pain”, which is pain in her foot at night which keeps her awake.
While the theory that anti terrorism laws weren’t made retrospective because the AWB bribes may have financed Palestinian terrorist groups potentially opening Dolly et al to prosecution sounds plausible, I suggest this is drawing a mighty long bow.
You’d have to prove that a) the money was paid to such groups, and b) that the former government ministers knew this was the destination. Almost impossible to prove, especially given that Saddam Hussein, the alleged middle man, is dead.
But, as I understand it, the monies paid by Saddam went to the relatives of Palestinian suicide bombers as compensation for their properties being destroyed in retaliation by the IDF, not to finance the groups. Such compensation almost certainly isn’t a crime, however, collective punishment is. Australia has on a number of occasions, including, from memory, within the last 5-6 years, sent back former officials and soldiers of the Nazi era to be tried for collective punishment related war crimes.
Anyway, there seem to be a number of local and and international crimes of equal or greater seriousness that may have been committed by those involved in the AWB scandal.
As a long-time scrutineer, it was always my understanding that scrutineers obeyed the rules or were barred.
The poll official is a worker in her work place. The AEC owes her, and other workers a duty of care to provide a safe workplace. The circumstances described are beyond belief. Surely, without wishing to pre-judge, in this situation the scrutineer would be asked to leave.
Scrutineers inevitably ‘hover’ over staff to observe individual balot papers, however any intentional touching would at the least constitute assault / intimidation and is ‘not on’. That is without consideration of the specifics alleged.
Surely the Returning Officer has the power to ‘ban’ the scrutineer concerned?
Even serfchoices didn’t (in theory) eliminate the right to not be exposed to sexual harassment.
Speaking of being polled, I was at the Crosby, Stills and Nash concert last night in Sydney (brilliant) when Crosby added after some banter “we know we’ve got a monkey in the White House”. After a pause he said “but you got rid of yours”.
The roar from the crowd sounded to us like 100% agreed, even if there the polls indicate that there shoud have been 43% LNP voters there.
(Clumsy way I know to try to keep it on topic!)
If they thought they were going to lose, the Libs may have forced the ALP to committ to the tax cuts to fuel inflation and enhance there ability to regain office in the future
180 MayoFeral- I had to laugh this week when I read Dolly’s article in the Tiser saying Steve Smith would be spending a lot of time on planes reading briefings. He forgot to mention that most of the briefings he just ignored, like the thirty briefings on the AWB.
“If they thought they were going to lose, the Libs may have forced the ALP to committ to the tax cuts to fuel inflation and enhance there ability to regain office in the future”
Not sure the Libs were thinking that far ahead.
I don’t think the tax cuts are that much of a handicap.
I think the ALP can be thankful that they have inherited a tax system with income tax rates that are competitive compared to other first world economies. If the top marginal rate was still cutting in at just above average earnings the brain drain would be a flood.
The changes to both income and consumption taxes is something the ALP would have struggled to implement. In the end, the Coalition has made those changes for them and they are now off the agenda. The ALP can get on with reforms that are popular and very much in their domain.
This was a verrrrrry good election for the ALP to win.
185 – Diogenese – Proving that he did know how to do his job! Just too lazy to actually do it. As the poor buggers in ET found out at great cost. 🙁
From reports on this site, it would seem that the ALP can’t expect to pick up McEwen.
Kirribilli @ 1.21pm.
No, same sex couples can’t have kids. Why should we change the course of nature to such an extent? Are you serious? Do you really want to be heading in that path?
All because people who can’t have what they can’t have are acting in and considering their own selfish interests?
I always had a nasty feeling Fran Bailey would win it on the recount!
Oh well, 83 seats isn’t too bad at all, and Ms Bailey will be an ineffective MP for the next 3 years.
glen wrote: “Basil Fawlty – have you read the specs of the F18Fs they have better radar than SU27s can easily take them plus they have better stealth capabilities, and plus these are Indonesians we’re talking about i bet our fighter pilots are far better than theirs.
Basil 8 just 8 SU30s i mean for petes sake here 8 SU30s against our entire airforce yeah we’re in real danger mate!”
those 8 SU30s easily have the range to mine or employ anti shipping missiles against perth for instance. a strike like that would be pretty bad, especially, seeing as how horatio has gotten rid of the f-111, we have no way to hit them back.
lets say, for the sake of argument, you’re pm horatio hornet and i’m indonesian president repetitive syllable. something goes wrong, perhaps your government carries out one of those unannounced strikes against terrorists on indonesian soil (as downer said the govt. would be prepared to do) it misses and hits a school. i send 4 su-30s out over the indian ocean, doglegging back towards perth and launch several cruise missiles/anti ship missiles at targets in the harbour.
in response to such a devastating strike, pm super hornet orders a retaliatory strike using our new super hornets. here’s the problem. there isn’t anywhere they can operate from that isn’t in range of long range su-30 combat air patrols (cap). there certainly isn’t anywhere they can refuel out of range of su-30 cap. and, best of all i still have a heap of f-16A/B/Cs to use for close to home defence. this means i could aggressively deploy all the su-30s left to harass you at long range (the su-30’s radar and r-77/aa-12 missiles make it a fearsome long range combatant) and mop up any survivors with f-16s closer to home. the endurance of the su-30s also means i’d whack you again on the way home. you’d be lucky not to have 90% losses. the paltry range of the super hornet means that any attack must occur from very limited directions (unlike the f-111 which could be employed in attacks from almost all directions).
sure, it’s an outlandish hypothetical but so was the ijn sinking british warships not an awfully long time ago. in fact, glen, japanese pilots were viewed as being too small and lacking peripheral vision to make good fighter pilots. the top four or so aces in the pacific were all japanese.
face facts glen, thanks to nelson, once indonesia gets their su-30s they will have an overwhelming strike advantage while we’ll have to post them firecrackers. there was a previous comment about someone having worked with managers like nelson. it was spot on. i’ve met his type before too. vain middle management types absolutely convinced of their unique genius. in every ministry he’s held he gained a reputation for rejecting departmental advice and substituting his own. hopefully he’ll lead the libs the same way.
I’m glad at least one media outlet is doing what they all should have been doing and that is evaluating and investigating at least one of the Coalitions publically funded advertising (re-election) campaigns.
The $43 million “NetAlert campaign”, which would have had al least $10 to $15 million more added in survey and production costs, was a total con and waste of presious public resources.
{ INDUSTRY professionals have raised doubts about the accuracy of statistics used in the Howard government’s multimillion-dollar internet safety campaign.}
{The then communications minister, Helen Coonan, said the statistics were drawn from a study commissioned by the government. But she refused to make the research public, saying it contained personal information. The Age has obtained the research, a survey prepared by the Wallis Consulting Group, under freedom of information laws. It does not contain any personal information.}
{The claim in the campaign regarding stranger contact does not appear in the government-commissioned research. The question was not posed in this form. Participants were asked: “When chatting online, have you ever been contacted by someone you haven’t met in real life?” More than half answered “yes”.
But when asked who they chatted to or messaged, they said communication was mostly with friends (96%), friends of friends (31%) or people met online who their parents had said “it is all right to talk to” (20%). Only 14% chatted or messaged with “just a mixture of people including strangers”.}
Now, if only the lazy media can have a good look at all the other wasteful Lib media propaganda campaigns, then they may be disuaded from trying some thing similar in the future. that goes for Labor too.
Gam how far is it from (Tindal) Darwin to Indonesia or Broome to Indonesia not far at all our F18s and F18Fs would easily be able to strike back at target should they try anything.
Those 4 SU30s would be shot down we have good land base radar systems in place, plus we’d send up our FA18s from Tindal to smack them on their way home.
I did not mean my comments to appear racist to you my argument was that our fighter pilots are some of the best trained in the world and id pit any of our best against Indonesias best.
Oh no im shaking in my boots with the ‘threat’ of 8 SU30s which do not have any stealth capacity we’d spot them a mile away with our landbased radar gam!!!
The super hornets have APG-79 radar. This radar gives them the ability to execute simultaneous air-to-air and air-to-ground attacks. The APG-79 also provides higher quality high-resolution ground mapping at long standoff ranges. The AESA radar also offers the ability to detect smaller targets, such as inbound missiles, far better technology than what the Indonesians F-16s or Su27s or even Su30s.
Indonesia as of now operates 2 Su-27SK & 2 Su-30MK aircraft and signed a deal of 6 Su-30 aircraft out of their full capacity of roughly 70 combat aircraft in their Air Force. Oh and lets fear the might of the Indonesian Air Force gam yet when they bought the two Su-27 Flankers and two Su-30 Flankers, there was no money for any weapons for these aircraft LOL!!!!
I doubt Fitzgibbon will change the order of 24 Super Hornets, its the perfect wedge for Nelson because he can say if they block it that the ALP is not interested in the Defence of Australia and if they buy something more expensive he can say that they are wasting money sweet!
Don’t know if this has been posted here, but another National Treasure, Clem Jones died today.
Brisbane’s longest serving Lord Mayor, Clem Jones, has died today, aged 89.
The influential former civic leader, credited with modernising the River City, had been gravely ill for some time.
Dr Jones was elected as Labor Lord Mayor in 1961 and served a record 15 years in office.
A surveyor by profession, he developed Brisbane’s first town plan and implemented many dramatic changes including improvements to roads, drainage and the creation of parklands and public swimming pools.
He was also a keen sports fan, and served as curator of the Brisbane Cricket Ground.
Following his retirement as Lord Mayor, Dr Jones was appointed Administrator of the Darwin Reconstruction Commission, where he helped rebuild the devastated city in the wake of Cyclone Tracey.
He was awarded an Order of Australia medal in 1976, Queenslander of the Year in 1990 and was also a finalist in the Senior Australian of the Year awards in 2004.
He died at the Wesley Hospital around 4.30am from pneumonia.
Premier Anna Bligh said a state funeral was planned for Dr Jones later this week.
“In honour of his wishes (it ) will be held at City Hall,” Ms Bligh said.
“Clem will long be remembered for his vision and commitment to transforming Brisbane from a conservative country town to a vibrant cosmopolitan city.
“His life-long civic contribution and love of the city of Brisbane was unsurpassed.”
187 Progressive – who said Fran has won anything? The recheck is a long way from finished and no on going results have been published.
Gary id say it is 50/50 either way for McEwen but from what ive heard the Libs have sent every single experienced scrutineer up there to help out. I’d say Fran has a good chance as the margin is only 6 votes and to have effective scrutineers for the first count on election night would have been hard. When we were checking Senate ballots in the seat of Melbourne several days after the election we found that so many were discarded as invalid, Liberal and Labor just because they’d been Below the Line so obviously the Greens had protested them for some reason and tossed them out.
So id give Fran a good chance to win atm but who knows.
188 – Gam, Perth is too far unless they do something about their air refuel capability, and anyway the potential targets are probably not worth the kero, unless they luck catching some of the subs in harbour.
But the Pilbara and Darwin have lots of potential. Sink a few ore carriers/cargo ships and see our economy wobble.
Most people believe the RAAF’s and RAN’s primary function is to stop an invasion of Oz. Not so. Only one country can successfully do that, and if Uncle Sam wants us there’s little we could do about it.
Their real purpose is mainly economic. Much of our wealth comes from areas within range of potential enemies, and a high proportion of our exports (and imports) transit the territorial waters of these potential enemies.
As per above, sink a few ore carriers and its bad news for the economy, but even worse, prevent direct transit of ships bound for/from Japan, China, the Mid East and Europe and its a disaster.
The RAAF patrol nearly 30% of the earth’s surface. You can’t protect that with fighters that have a combat radius of 150mn/about 280km (ever spot the contrail of an airliner from low down on the horizon? Thats roughly at the same distance – depending on atmospheric conditions and your eyesight!).
I note that at no time did horatio mention anything about increasing the air tanker fleet to compensate for the Hornets’ much shorter range. For that matter nothing was said about this in relation to the F-35s, either. The tankers on order are barely adequate for the F-111s. No doubt this was going to be the Boeing reps next task.
MayoFeral but think of the damage we could do to Indonesia by sinking oil transporters off the coast of Java or Ache with our Collins Class Submarines??? I’d say Indonesias economy would flat line if that happened.
Hey 195
You talk too much.
Are you aware of the near conflict when the uprising was happening around the turn of the century???
Do you know what was the objective???
Obviously you hark from the sideline.
Good day sir.
scaper…
glen wrote: “Gam how far is it from (Tindal) Darwin to Indonesia or Broome to Indonesia not far at all our F18s and F18Fs would easily be able to strike back at target should they try anything.”
no, they wouldn’t, not without having to refuel. meanwhile those bases are easily in range of su-30s.
“Those 4 SU30s would be shot down we have good land base radar systems in place, plus we’d send up our FA18s from Tindal to smack them on their way home.”
they’d never get within radar range if they launched cruise missiles (which they’re buying) from out in the indian ocean.
“I did not mean my comments to appear racist to you my argument was that our fighter pilots are some of the best trained in the world and id pit any of our best against Indonesias best.”
you weren’t being racist, you were being arrogantly overconfident, that was my point. ‘they’re probably worse than us’ doesn’t quite cut it.
“The super hornets have APG-79 radar. This radar gives them the ability to execute simultaneous air-to-air and air-to-ground attacks. The APG-79 also provides higher quality high-resolution ground mapping at long standoff ranges. The AESA radar also offers the ability to detect smaller targets, such as inbound missiles, far better technology than what the Indonesians F-16s or Su27s or even Su30s.”
you have no idea about the su-27/30s capabilities. for instance, the r-77 missile out ranges the aim-120 giving them the chance to shoot first and turn tail. they can also loiter for longer and can fight for longer before having to return to base.
“I doubt Fitzgibbon will change the order of 24 Super Hornets, its the perfect wedge for Nelson because he can say if they block it that the ALP is not interested in the Defence of Australia and if they buy something more expensive he can say that they are wasting money sweet!”
not if they hold an inquiry into the sale and trot out senior defence official after defence official to state for the record how badly nelson buggered it up…
Gam the only person to speak out against the F-18F was a former Air Commodore not anybody within the Air Force at the moment.
Gam the only weapons the Indons have on their Su27s and Su30s are air to air they have no capacity to launch air strikes. If they couldnt afford any weaponry on their first 4 high tech Russian aircraft how will they manage with a further 6 Su30s arm half of them LOL!
Gam i dont underestimate them i only posit that our pilots are better trained than theirs.
Centre @ 186:
“No, same sex couples can’t have kids. Why should we change the course of nature to such an extent? Are you serious? Do you really want to be heading in that path?
All because people who can’t have what they can’t have are acting in and considering their own selfish interests?”
So, you’re argument against allowing same-sex couples to have kids is that it would “change the course of nature”. But aren’t we constantly changing the course of nature – e.g. finding cures for diseases, acting on climate change – for the betterment of people and society?
And isn’t any couple (or person) “acting in and considering their own selfish interests” when deciding to have a child? How is this different with same-sex couples?
193 Glen – I agree with you Glen. Too close to call.
Did everyone see Clarke and Dawe last night “Brendan Nelson” interview and shadows being cast, these guys are the best satirists this country has seen for a very long time!
http://www.abc.net.au/7.30/clarkedawe.htm
Jenny @ 151,
“I wonder: will the F18Fs ever get taken out of their boxes? They’re almost too expensive to fly!”
Jenny, saw a couple of ’em for sale on ebay this morning, Swannie has already started his austerity drive. Might get one for my 5 yo grandson, pretty tricky toy.
Ron at 110
Should be a quintella.
You forgot wages explosion and recession in the Howard Treasury CV!
150 MayoFeral, Yes you should apologise to the working girls, I have met a few in my time and they have a heart and a soul, unlike National Party rednecks. 😉
Arbie Jay –
your explanation fills in some gaps for me – particularly why Hicks wasn’t brought home to avoid all the protests it created at the time.
Surely there are other laws that Downer and his henchmen can be tried under if the facts come to light, apart from Gross Stupidity, which as you say there is no law against.
Should be though – you need to be reasonably intelligent to teach children or perform any other numerous positions in the community, and yet these guys could run the country (into the ground) for 11 years.
I find it remarkable that this Blog is headlined ” Morgan 60.5% – 39.5% ”
yet the discussion has been on David Hicks , AWB and F18 fighters ,
none of which were a “Political” issue in the 2007 Election campaign ,
yet we are not allowed to talk about the cause of the NT Aboriginal intervention
which WAS a ” Political” issue in the Election campaign.
Perhaps its because the defenders of the Cairns Judge & the Judicial system are
now embarassed by their defence of a grave injustice also
Jen
Nothing Dolly can be charged with, even if a record emerged proving he knew more. His defence throughout AWB that he could not recall or could not remember is unbeatable, you cannot prove that someone does recall or does remember.
As I mentioned this did not work for Bond, Williams and Adler, but also with Dolly and AWB there was no crime in offering a bribe and offering financial support to a suspected terror organisation was not a crime at the time.
Dolly did not break any law, plain and simple.
Time to deal with him would have been during Hicks time, should have put him in a prison for a while ala Hicks, whilst they worked out if they could charge him with something. Then he would have got personal experience of his favourite expression busted arse.
158
Ron I agree this blog is one of the most interesting because it facilitates general political discourse in a stimulating but very ad-hoc way, but gets off topic very quickly. Maybe the problem is the “topic” and just how much you can dissect it to death before it morphs into something else.
But that is not our province to dictate.
While Possum provides the outlet currently on your mentioned topic he is not getting the repartee that makes this site interesting.
Ron @ 158, Whilst I agree that the matters of Indigenous welfare are very serious and will possibly represent the success or failure of Kev and Co (at least to me) I am respecting William’s wishes on the matter. Although of course by posting this I am by definition in breach, apologies William.
Meanwhile, back on topic, it seems ridiculous to me to be taking opinion polls now anyway. The new Government has not had a chance to show its true mettle, Parliament has not sat, the silly season is upon us. Give us six months to evaluate how they are going, especially after Swannie’s first budget.
By the way, as many others have commented, I have just learned to stop cringing when I hear a newsreader say “the Prime Minister said today blahdeblah”. I have to keep remembering that it wont be King Rat they are referring to. Interesting psychological phenomena, wonder if the DSM-IV has that listed. Rodentaphobia perhaps, post rat stress disorder, perhaps I can get that cute psych masters grad at work to do some research with me. (Here he drifts off into fantasy)
The threads are moving a lot slower now than before the election which is obviously to be expected. Only so much can be said about this Morgan poll before it is done to death.
An issue which could cause raging debate is that of same sex couple relationships having children which was raised in a previous thread. It is a political issue!
Just been polled by Newspoll– apart from some junk shopping questions were voting intentions both Federally and locally (South Australia)– be interesting to see if Morgans results are duplicated
163
Centre
No, it is most certainly not a political issue, it is a private matter between adults, as it is for everyone else. It is only a political issue to the rabid fundamentalists who think they have a franchise on what is ‘right’.
They don’t!
My first impressions of Roxon as a Health Minister are not favourable, in fact she is almost certainly a moron. Her proposal to start with a $100M fund to increase elective surgery is a joke. There are about 700 hospitals who get the money, with about 50 being large metropolitan ones. Given that their budget is about $400M each, how is $1M going to make any appreciable difference. It will be pocketed gratefully. Roxon also makes the offensive suggestion that hospitals might perform quick-fix, shabby operations to get their hands on the money. So is she suggesting the doctors and nurses just going to take out half the cancer so their administrators can get more funding?
Diogenes,
Whilst I don’t know enough about Roxon to speculate on her IQ, I would agree with you that this proposal is obviously going to have very little effect whatsoever, and could be quite negative in some respects.
Reminds of the stunt Bob Carr pulled when he first got elected in NSW – halving the waiting lists or whatever it was. All that happened was:
– lots of administrator (and doctor) time was wasted arguing about the details of what was to be done, and after the event arguing about the numbers
– there were perverse outcomes because of the imperative to massage the numbers – ie the prioritisation of patients and procedures went off the beam
– a year or two later the whole thing might as well have never happened.
Kirribilli,
Nonesense, of course it is. But yes, it should be a private matter between adults therefore if same sex couples want to have a kid, they should go for it, on their own.
Somehow I don’t like their chances. Maybe they could start by watching that movie with DeVito and Schwarzenegger.
166 & 167
To be fair to Roxon, she is actually only doing what people want, which is to try to shorten waiting lists. The problem is that waiting lists are not the problem. If you require care urgently, you will be seen (for example, a work colleague who had a suspected brain tumour had a biopsy within about a week). To my mind, the problem is that the public want unlimited health care but are not prepared to pay unlimited taxes.
You are both right, though, that if that truly was your aim you would need substantially more than $100m.
gus Says:
“Just been polled by Newspoll”
Thanks Gus for the heads up. I guess the result will probably be out on monday night.
It will be very interesting to see if Newspoll confirms the huge ALP lead indicated by Morgan.
If it does I think the Liberal strategists can give themselves a pat on the back for pulling the ALP 2pp vote down to under 53 at the election.
Although they now face the prospect of trying to do it again but from opposition.
168
Centre
Like I said, in somewhat ironic mode, it’s only ‘political’ for those of a fundamentalist persuasion, who somehow think that their opinions are sanctified by some god almighty force, but are nothing more than bigotry wrapped in sanctimonious claptrap.
Are you putting up your hand for that position?
(And let’s not waste Williams bandwidth on this, a simple yes or no will suffice!)
For anyone who hasn’t today’s Moir cartoon in the SMH:
http://www.smh.com.au/cartoons/index.html
Check it out, brilliantly done.
170 WTR
I agree – that the Libs managed to limit their losses to what we’ve ended up with is just amazing.
Hundreds of thousands of people changed their voting intention in the last 7-10 days in the face of a woeful campaign.
And from opposition they’re many many thousands of paid people down in the next round in 3 years time; who knows – they might have to even develop a few popular inclusive policies. do they even have anyone who can remmeber haow to do that?
Can same sex couples have kids, Kirribilli? A simple yes or no will suffice!
NO
The health system is apauling.
My grandma has very poor circulation and [long story short] has a wound that is not healing on the lower leg and has turned into an ulcler that is necrotic. She is experiencing pain in the big toe of the same leg. Her doctor [on an almost daily house call basis these days] has tried to get her into a circulation specialist to have special xrays and scans to see if the blood is getting to the toe, and where blockages might be, but it will not be done before February next year. Unacceptable, we said. So they tried a bit harder and could get her in to see not a circulation specialist but someone else with not as good diagnostic equipment, but not until early January.
Meawhile, the ulcer is necrotic and she is in such grave danger of loosing her leg that today they are off to the emergency dept of the hospital, armed with an eski full of food, a wheelchair and a letter from her doctor pleading her to be admitted for emergency surgery to have the necrotic flesh removed so that she doesnt have to have her 85 year old leg amputated.
Can’t tell you how pathetic it all is.
174
Centre
They can, with help, and no different to many other couples who require help.
So your real point is that you personally don’t approve of couples (of any flavour) getting help to become parents, or just specifically couples who happen to be of the same gender?
If it’s the latter, you are expressing your prejudices, and you are welcome to them.
I’m off now, but will not comment further on this topic.
173 onimod
Yes they will have to learn a few more tricks to peg back the ALP this time. It would be fun to be a fly on the wall in the next strategy meeting.
Nelson: Ok guys we’re behind in the polls – let’s work through our check list. Firstly, step up the tax payer funded ads.
Strategist (quickly and in a deep voice): Um we not in power any more
Nelson: (giggles) Oh forgot. Ok, let’s put up some ridicules red neck policy that the ALP either has to agree with for or be wedged.
Strategist: Still not in power..
Nelson: mmm, lets get our army of staffers working on…
Strategist: not there anymore, they’re sitting outside train stations with “will wedge for food” placards.
Nelson: The army could ….
Strategist: (shakes head)
Nelson: The AFP could …
Strategist: (mouths the word “no”)
Nelson: The public service…
Strategist: (raises eyebrow)
Nelson: “How the heck are we supposed to win then?”
The poll looks pretty good for what it is.
My concern is the locked in tax cuts that will ensue in the may budget and the flow on inflation effect and consequent action by the RBA.
A bold move would be to scrap the cuts and either look at the excise or the GST.
I know the excise has been looked at but I would love to be a fly on the wall at COAG than fed second hand information.
Do I smell more change in the air???
175 chino- I sympathise re your grandmother. I can assure you that it will made no difference to the chances of survival of the limb when the necrotic tissue is removed. She needs her doppler pressures measured as a minimum (they can do that in Emerg) and then an angiogram. She should mention that she has “rest pain”, which is pain in her foot at night which keeps her awake.
While the theory that anti terrorism laws weren’t made retrospective because the AWB bribes may have financed Palestinian terrorist groups potentially opening Dolly et al to prosecution sounds plausible, I suggest this is drawing a mighty long bow.
You’d have to prove that a) the money was paid to such groups, and b) that the former government ministers knew this was the destination. Almost impossible to prove, especially given that Saddam Hussein, the alleged middle man, is dead.
But, as I understand it, the monies paid by Saddam went to the relatives of Palestinian suicide bombers as compensation for their properties being destroyed in retaliation by the IDF, not to finance the groups. Such compensation almost certainly isn’t a crime, however, collective punishment is. Australia has on a number of occasions, including, from memory, within the last 5-6 years, sent back former officials and soldiers of the Nazi era to be tried for collective punishment related war crimes.
Anyway, there seem to be a number of local and and international crimes of equal or greater seriousness that may have been committed by those involved in the AWB scandal.
Surely, what is described on Landeryou’s site, if true, is a case of sexual assault in the workplace. http://andrewlanderyou.blogspot.com/2007/12/pervo-my-name-is-earl.html
As a long-time scrutineer, it was always my understanding that scrutineers obeyed the rules or were barred.
The poll official is a worker in her work place. The AEC owes her, and other workers a duty of care to provide a safe workplace. The circumstances described are beyond belief. Surely, without wishing to pre-judge, in this situation the scrutineer would be asked to leave.
Scrutineers inevitably ‘hover’ over staff to observe individual balot papers, however any intentional touching would at the least constitute assault / intimidation and is ‘not on’. That is without consideration of the specifics alleged.
Surely the Returning Officer has the power to ‘ban’ the scrutineer concerned?
Even serfchoices didn’t (in theory) eliminate the right to not be exposed to sexual harassment.
Speaking of being polled, I was at the Crosby, Stills and Nash concert last night in Sydney (brilliant) when Crosby added after some banter “we know we’ve got a monkey in the White House”. After a pause he said “but you got rid of yours”.
The roar from the crowd sounded to us like 100% agreed, even if there the polls indicate that there shoud have been 43% LNP voters there.
(Clumsy way I know to try to keep it on topic!)
If they thought they were going to lose, the Libs may have forced the ALP to committ to the tax cuts to fuel inflation and enhance there ability to regain office in the future
180 MayoFeral- I had to laugh this week when I read Dolly’s article in the Tiser saying Steve Smith would be spending a lot of time on planes reading briefings. He forgot to mention that most of the briefings he just ignored, like the thirty briefings on the AWB.
“If they thought they were going to lose, the Libs may have forced the ALP to committ to the tax cuts to fuel inflation and enhance there ability to regain office in the future”
Not sure the Libs were thinking that far ahead.
I don’t think the tax cuts are that much of a handicap.
I think the ALP can be thankful that they have inherited a tax system with income tax rates that are competitive compared to other first world economies. If the top marginal rate was still cutting in at just above average earnings the brain drain would be a flood.
The changes to both income and consumption taxes is something the ALP would have struggled to implement. In the end, the Coalition has made those changes for them and they are now off the agenda. The ALP can get on with reforms that are popular and very much in their domain.
This was a verrrrrry good election for the ALP to win.
185 – Diogenese – Proving that he did know how to do his job! Just too lazy to actually do it. As the poor buggers in ET found out at great cost. 🙁
From reports on this site, it would seem that the ALP can’t expect to pick up McEwen.
Kirribilli @ 1.21pm.
No, same sex couples can’t have kids. Why should we change the course of nature to such an extent? Are you serious? Do you really want to be heading in that path?
All because people who can’t have what they can’t have are acting in and considering their own selfish interests?
I always had a nasty feeling Fran Bailey would win it on the recount!
Oh well, 83 seats isn’t too bad at all, and Ms Bailey will be an ineffective MP for the next 3 years.
glen wrote: “Basil Fawlty – have you read the specs of the F18Fs they have better radar than SU27s can easily take them plus they have better stealth capabilities, and plus these are Indonesians we’re talking about i bet our fighter pilots are far better than theirs.
Basil 8 just 8 SU30s i mean for petes sake here 8 SU30s against our entire airforce yeah we’re in real danger mate!”
those 8 SU30s easily have the range to mine or employ anti shipping missiles against perth for instance. a strike like that would be pretty bad, especially, seeing as how horatio has gotten rid of the f-111, we have no way to hit them back.
lets say, for the sake of argument, you’re pm horatio hornet and i’m indonesian president repetitive syllable. something goes wrong, perhaps your government carries out one of those unannounced strikes against terrorists on indonesian soil (as downer said the govt. would be prepared to do) it misses and hits a school. i send 4 su-30s out over the indian ocean, doglegging back towards perth and launch several cruise missiles/anti ship missiles at targets in the harbour.
in response to such a devastating strike, pm super hornet orders a retaliatory strike using our new super hornets. here’s the problem. there isn’t anywhere they can operate from that isn’t in range of long range su-30 combat air patrols (cap). there certainly isn’t anywhere they can refuel out of range of su-30 cap. and, best of all i still have a heap of f-16A/B/Cs to use for close to home defence. this means i could aggressively deploy all the su-30s left to harass you at long range (the su-30’s radar and r-77/aa-12 missiles make it a fearsome long range combatant) and mop up any survivors with f-16s closer to home. the endurance of the su-30s also means i’d whack you again on the way home. you’d be lucky not to have 90% losses. the paltry range of the super hornet means that any attack must occur from very limited directions (unlike the f-111 which could be employed in attacks from almost all directions).
sure, it’s an outlandish hypothetical but so was the ijn sinking british warships not an awfully long time ago. in fact, glen, japanese pilots were viewed as being too small and lacking peripheral vision to make good fighter pilots. the top four or so aces in the pacific were all japanese.
face facts glen, thanks to nelson, once indonesia gets their su-30s they will have an overwhelming strike advantage while we’ll have to post them firecrackers. there was a previous comment about someone having worked with managers like nelson. it was spot on. i’ve met his type before too. vain middle management types absolutely convinced of their unique genius. in every ministry he’s held he gained a reputation for rejecting departmental advice and substituting his own. hopefully he’ll lead the libs the same way.
I’m glad at least one media outlet is doing what they all should have been doing and that is evaluating and investigating at least one of the Coalitions publically funded advertising (re-election) campaigns.
The $43 million “NetAlert campaign”, which would have had al least $10 to $15 million more added in survey and production costs, was a total con and waste of presious public resources.
{ INDUSTRY professionals have raised doubts about the accuracy of statistics used in the Howard government’s multimillion-dollar internet safety campaign.}
{The then communications minister, Helen Coonan, said the statistics were drawn from a study commissioned by the government. But she refused to make the research public, saying it contained personal information. The Age has obtained the research, a survey prepared by the Wallis Consulting Group, under freedom of information laws. It does not contain any personal information.}
{The claim in the campaign regarding stranger contact does not appear in the government-commissioned research. The question was not posed in this form. Participants were asked: “When chatting online, have you ever been contacted by someone you haven’t met in real life?” More than half answered “yes”.
But when asked who they chatted to or messaged, they said communication was mostly with friends (96%), friends of friends (31%) or people met online who their parents had said “it is all right to talk to” (20%). Only 14% chatted or messaged with “just a mixture of people including strangers”.}
http://www.theage.com.au/news/national/coalition-internet-campaign-inaccurate/2007/12/14/1197568265011.html
Now, if only the lazy media can have a good look at all the other wasteful Lib media propaganda campaigns, then they may be disuaded from trying some thing similar in the future. that goes for Labor too.
Gam how far is it from (Tindal) Darwin to Indonesia or Broome to Indonesia not far at all our F18s and F18Fs would easily be able to strike back at target should they try anything.
Those 4 SU30s would be shot down we have good land base radar systems in place, plus we’d send up our FA18s from Tindal to smack them on their way home.
I did not mean my comments to appear racist to you my argument was that our fighter pilots are some of the best trained in the world and id pit any of our best against Indonesias best.
Oh no im shaking in my boots with the ‘threat’ of 8 SU30s which do not have any stealth capacity we’d spot them a mile away with our landbased radar gam!!!
The super hornets have APG-79 radar. This radar gives them the ability to execute simultaneous air-to-air and air-to-ground attacks. The APG-79 also provides higher quality high-resolution ground mapping at long standoff ranges. The AESA radar also offers the ability to detect smaller targets, such as inbound missiles, far better technology than what the Indonesians F-16s or Su27s or even Su30s.
Indonesia as of now operates 2 Su-27SK & 2 Su-30MK aircraft and signed a deal of 6 Su-30 aircraft out of their full capacity of roughly 70 combat aircraft in their Air Force. Oh and lets fear the might of the Indonesian Air Force gam yet when they bought the two Su-27 Flankers and two Su-30 Flankers, there was no money for any weapons for these aircraft LOL!!!!
I doubt Fitzgibbon will change the order of 24 Super Hornets, its the perfect wedge for Nelson because he can say if they block it that the ALP is not interested in the Defence of Australia and if they buy something more expensive he can say that they are wasting money sweet!
Don’t know if this has been posted here, but another National Treasure, Clem Jones died today.
Brisbane’s longest serving Lord Mayor, Clem Jones, has died today, aged 89.
The influential former civic leader, credited with modernising the River City, had been gravely ill for some time.
Dr Jones was elected as Labor Lord Mayor in 1961 and served a record 15 years in office.
A surveyor by profession, he developed Brisbane’s first town plan and implemented many dramatic changes including improvements to roads, drainage and the creation of parklands and public swimming pools.
He was also a keen sports fan, and served as curator of the Brisbane Cricket Ground.
Following his retirement as Lord Mayor, Dr Jones was appointed Administrator of the Darwin Reconstruction Commission, where he helped rebuild the devastated city in the wake of Cyclone Tracey.
He was awarded an Order of Australia medal in 1976, Queenslander of the Year in 1990 and was also a finalist in the Senior Australian of the Year awards in 2004.
He died at the Wesley Hospital around 4.30am from pneumonia.
Premier Anna Bligh said a state funeral was planned for Dr Jones later this week.
“In honour of his wishes (it ) will be held at City Hall,” Ms Bligh said.
“Clem will long be remembered for his vision and commitment to transforming Brisbane from a conservative country town to a vibrant cosmopolitan city.
“His life-long civic contribution and love of the city of Brisbane was unsurpassed.”
Dr Jones’ wife Sylvia died in 1999.
http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/news/queensland/former-mayor-clem-jones-dies/2007/12/15/1197568304193.html
187 Progressive – who said Fran has won anything? The recheck is a long way from finished and no on going results have been published.
Gary id say it is 50/50 either way for McEwen but from what ive heard the Libs have sent every single experienced scrutineer up there to help out. I’d say Fran has a good chance as the margin is only 6 votes and to have effective scrutineers for the first count on election night would have been hard. When we were checking Senate ballots in the seat of Melbourne several days after the election we found that so many were discarded as invalid, Liberal and Labor just because they’d been Below the Line so obviously the Greens had protested them for some reason and tossed them out.
So id give Fran a good chance to win atm but who knows.
188 – Gam, Perth is too far unless they do something about their air refuel capability, and anyway the potential targets are probably not worth the kero, unless they luck catching some of the subs in harbour.
But the Pilbara and Darwin have lots of potential. Sink a few ore carriers/cargo ships and see our economy wobble.
Most people believe the RAAF’s and RAN’s primary function is to stop an invasion of Oz. Not so. Only one country can successfully do that, and if Uncle Sam wants us there’s little we could do about it.
Their real purpose is mainly economic. Much of our wealth comes from areas within range of potential enemies, and a high proportion of our exports (and imports) transit the territorial waters of these potential enemies.
As per above, sink a few ore carriers and its bad news for the economy, but even worse, prevent direct transit of ships bound for/from Japan, China, the Mid East and Europe and its a disaster.
The RAAF patrol nearly 30% of the earth’s surface. You can’t protect that with fighters that have a combat radius of 150mn/about 280km (ever spot the contrail of an airliner from low down on the horizon? Thats roughly at the same distance – depending on atmospheric conditions and your eyesight!).
I note that at no time did horatio mention anything about increasing the air tanker fleet to compensate for the Hornets’ much shorter range. For that matter nothing was said about this in relation to the F-35s, either. The tankers on order are barely adequate for the F-111s. No doubt this was going to be the Boeing reps next task.
MayoFeral but think of the damage we could do to Indonesia by sinking oil transporters off the coast of Java or Ache with our Collins Class Submarines??? I’d say Indonesias economy would flat line if that happened.
Hey 195
You talk too much.
Are you aware of the near conflict when the uprising was happening around the turn of the century???
Do you know what was the objective???
Obviously you hark from the sideline.
Good day sir.
scaper…
glen wrote: “Gam how far is it from (Tindal) Darwin to Indonesia or Broome to Indonesia not far at all our F18s and F18Fs would easily be able to strike back at target should they try anything.”
no, they wouldn’t, not without having to refuel. meanwhile those bases are easily in range of su-30s.
“Those 4 SU30s would be shot down we have good land base radar systems in place, plus we’d send up our FA18s from Tindal to smack them on their way home.”
they’d never get within radar range if they launched cruise missiles (which they’re buying) from out in the indian ocean.
“I did not mean my comments to appear racist to you my argument was that our fighter pilots are some of the best trained in the world and id pit any of our best against Indonesias best.”
you weren’t being racist, you were being arrogantly overconfident, that was my point. ‘they’re probably worse than us’ doesn’t quite cut it.
“The super hornets have APG-79 radar. This radar gives them the ability to execute simultaneous air-to-air and air-to-ground attacks. The APG-79 also provides higher quality high-resolution ground mapping at long standoff ranges. The AESA radar also offers the ability to detect smaller targets, such as inbound missiles, far better technology than what the Indonesians F-16s or Su27s or even Su30s.”
you have no idea about the su-27/30s capabilities. for instance, the r-77 missile out ranges the aim-120 giving them the chance to shoot first and turn tail. they can also loiter for longer and can fight for longer before having to return to base.
“I doubt Fitzgibbon will change the order of 24 Super Hornets, its the perfect wedge for Nelson because he can say if they block it that the ALP is not interested in the Defence of Australia and if they buy something more expensive he can say that they are wasting money sweet!”
not if they hold an inquiry into the sale and trot out senior defence official after defence official to state for the record how badly nelson buggered it up…
Gam the only person to speak out against the F-18F was a former Air Commodore not anybody within the Air Force at the moment.
Gam the only weapons the Indons have on their Su27s and Su30s are air to air they have no capacity to launch air strikes. If they couldnt afford any weaponry on their first 4 high tech Russian aircraft how will they manage with a further 6 Su30s arm half of them LOL!
Gam i dont underestimate them i only posit that our pilots are better trained than theirs.
Centre @ 186:
“No, same sex couples can’t have kids. Why should we change the course of nature to such an extent? Are you serious? Do you really want to be heading in that path?
All because people who can’t have what they can’t have are acting in and considering their own selfish interests?”
So, you’re argument against allowing same-sex couples to have kids is that it would “change the course of nature”. But aren’t we constantly changing the course of nature – e.g. finding cures for diseases, acting on climate change – for the betterment of people and society?
And isn’t any couple (or person) “acting in and considering their own selfish interests” when deciding to have a child? How is this different with same-sex couples?
193 Glen – I agree with you Glen. Too close to call.