Analysis and discussion of elections and opinion polls in Australia
Morgan: 60.5-39.5
Roy Morgan’s first face-to-face poll of the Rudd era shows Labor with a predictably bloated two-party lead of 60.5-39.5. Read all about it here.
Author: William Bowe
William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.
View all posts by William Bowe
Rudd has been performing sensationally since becoming P.M. One of Morgan’s more accurate f to f polls.
BTW, I think I’m first?
Quick, call a double dissolution.
Bull butter
Am I the only one who finds it bizarre that according to Morgan’s poll, 60% of people think the coalition will win the next election? Can anyone think of a reason for this?
The Widening?
Daniel @4
Perhaps its the Australian peoples inate sense of humour
Yes Daniel. I think Morgan has got them the other way round? No way people could think the liberals will win the next election. Especially with Mr 14% Nelson as leader. Much lower than Crean LOL.
I’m not that surprised really.
The media told the relatively uninformed that it was close, and they voted (accordingly) conservatively – most populations are change-adverse as a general rule.
Those late swingers are a fickle group too, obviously.
The post election performance by the Libs will have left a very dirty taste in the mouth of relatively commited Liberal voters; liars are liars.
The post election performance by Labour has been exemplary.
Hence back to the stratospheric poll levels from earlier in the year. Even though the elction didn’t turn out that way, polling has told us for 12 months that people wanted something to happen.
It happened…
The sky hasn’t fallen in…
They’re happy (shock horror).
If the ALP implement at the current pace then I’ll be surprised if it doesn’t rise further. The ACT and QLD libs are doing nothing for the conservative cause.
Incedentally:
“A major parcel of land in Canberra’s CBD has been sold for $92 million by public auction today (Dec 14), achieving what is believed to be an Australian record for a property sold at auction” (Property Council)
I spoke to a connected banker who indicated that the govenment change has had no negative impact whatsoever in his circles.
I suggested to him that demographically the electorate’s mood for change could be interpreted as a move away from the stable ‘risk adverse’ culture to a more risk tolerant one. He suggested it was possible.
It’ll be interesting to see tha markets response to Leightons (property buyer) because the price paid was roughly 50% higher than the pack envisioned.
If the bookies started betting on the next election, I reckon it would be 1.33 and 3.20.
Morgan picked the election pretty well, so it’s probably accurate.
On those figures Labor would win a DD in a hyper landslide and win control of the senate. Something for the coalition senators to consider when they vote on the government’s legislation.
Ah, I think you’re right Centre. If you look at the other Morgan poll, the numbers are reversed. I was starting to worry that the Australian population were even more fickle than I thought.
here’s a synopsis of an insider at the McEwen recount
– a full recheck of the primary votes has occurred over the past 3 days – a second recheck is now to occur starting tomorrow
– there will then be a check and re-check of the distribution of the preferences
– about 1% (very rough figure) of the ballots have been challenged and a final determination will be made in Melb at a later date (presumably next week sometime)
– the libs have more scrutineers than labor
– for every one ballot being challenged by labor scrutineers, about 5 or 6 are being challenged by the lib scrutineers
– there are as much as 50 primary votes (perhaps much more) that have clearly been assigned to the wrong candidate
– many of the other challenged ballots will probably stay in the same ‘pile’
– on the basis of all of this, there is strong possibility that the result COULD be turned around
Is bullshit on the banned list, or do we have to continue to put up with Glen’s annoying variation?
And Spiros, is “hyper-landslide” yours? I quite like the sound of it – a bit like an avalanche on red cordial, perhaps.
Boll i use bullbutter not as a curse word but as a word i use to mean unbelievable or crazy.
Any poll that has one side at 60% should be viewed very cautiously.
The poll result was 53/47 this is a 7% swing on top of that = bull butter IMHO.
We need to redistribute seats so that each seat has 70 to 75 thousand people having seats like McEwen with over 100,000 is not democratic. Sure this would mean more seats and who knows who this would favour probably Labor but 85,000+ electorates are a bad thing for democracy how on earth can one person represent 85-100,000 people???
Remember Morgan F2F had 62/38 TPP a week before the election.
Glen – was the poling all year wrong too, or was it a real representation given the circumstances?
No the polls galaxy, newspoll were on the money but AC and Morgan were off target onimod.
Morgan should really be viewed with a grain of salt IMHO.
Glen (14) I doubt we want the federal parliamentary population to increase in line with the general community.
1 person can represent 100K of people on federal issues – if the federal government isn’t fiddling with local issues, and you can go to your state member to moan about schools/roads/hospitals
Glen – how do you know they were off target?
We’re talking about the whole year, not just the last week guesses.
I think the point is that it’s undemocratic having such a wide variation in number of enrolled voters per seat, and 100,000 does seem pretty big to me.
Centre @ 9
Centrebet are actually already running a book on the next federal election – they have the ALP at 1.16 and ‘any other party’ at 4.60.
Not sure what kind of nutcases are prepared to take 16% profit over three years for the ALP but there you go.
19
onimod – when Morgan had Labor consistently at higher than 56-44 and the result being 53-47 id call that off the same with AC who had their results between 55-45 and 60-40 id say that’s a fair way off too.
Glen
The problem is that you’re comparing apples with oranges.
If there’s one thing we all learned is that voting intention changes with proximity to an election, and a bunch of other factors.
I just don’t see how anyone can claim a poll is wrong – every poll tells you something.
No pollster, as far as I know, sets up the exact conditions to match an electoral booth.
It’s more of a case that the question they’re asking is wrong.
You’re assuming, and maybe some polsters are too, that they’re matching an electoral result – they’re not.
The average poll is measuring confidence, which doesn’t necessarily translate to action.
The telling result from the poll, clearly not noise, is the ‘heading in the right direction’ result, and if that is clearly moving, why wouldn’t the overall confidence?
Boll says
“Is bullshit on the banned list, or do we have to continue to put up with Glen’s annoying variation?”
I’ve got quite used to it – somehow a large 2pp lead to the ALP would not be complete without Glen’s folksy rejoiner.
Work to rule, we all love redneck jargon and this is just a way of responding to another terrible poll for my side of politics.
25
Amen to that Glen – and I like your attitude!
Hey i wonder when newspoll will do a proper post opinion poll???
But the real polls to watch will be in Feb next year, maybe Brendan will be Mr 20% by then.
60-40, dare I say we have seen these numbers before.
Rudd has had a good start to his PMship, while the Liberals have flopped into a heap.
I agree with Glen, I feel out HoR seats are too large, this is one reason why I believe scrapping the State’s and using the state electorate maps, which could be used without abolishing the States.
I recognize that the this would cause a malapposition between the various states but would have the added advantage of swifting the majority of seats away from Victoria and NSW.
For both sides of politics the sooner Turnball takes over the better.
At the moment Rudd has no opposition and nelson is obsructing the liberals from taking a serious look at their morally challenged right wingers.
If Turnball took over it would provide some substaintive opposition and trigger a much need internal debate between the “libs” and the “loops”.
I am inclined also to your view BMV after all the States are just a joke, they never get in the media at all except for transport and how bad our hospitals are. State politics is a dead horse.
What’s wrong with Glen being original ‘bullbutter’ at least that’s better than Howards haters calling a Rodent eventhough it was Liberal Senator Bandis who created that title.
Glen can claim to being more original than anything Howard produced in his last term.
If Turnbull is our leader there wont be that much opposition either WTR maybe less lol!
Anyway Turnbull wants to be PM not an Opposition Leader, hence Brendan.
I have always thought what polls like these one, that is ones with extremely wild results, is that a lot people are ashamed to admit who they are willing to vote for. Certainly the result would not be 60-40 at any election but the ALP would clearly be in the lead by a long way and around about 10-15% of Liberal votes are too ashammed to admit that they would vote that way. Which does not suggest smooth sailing for Nelson.
Bullbutter reminds me of a bi-product of stud season…gross.
Denial is no way forward, as I want the libs to be an option for the voters at the next election.
Democracy is paramount.
I just got the Melbourne ‘Age’ and the front page is the Q’ld child’s rape case
The ‘Age’ reports everyone now is running for cover: the Child Safety Officers , Local Mayor , the Police , the local Media , some Aboriginal leaders , Politicians ,
Crown Prosecutor in Cairns is stood down & the Judge still thinks she is right
The Newspapers have “News” to fill their pages
and I continue to support the PM’s statement that the decision is appalling ”
that a 26 year old can rape a 10 year old and walk free in 21st Century Australia
IF , IF , IF those who are running for cover and those who worry about the Judge were to simply accept the gross injustice done to this child ,
THEN EVERYONE may finally start looking at ‘why did it happen’
AND THEN ‘why this is this only an example of aboriginal sex abuse’
AND THEN why this is only a window part of a larger picture of failed aboriginal policys by all Governments including the Aboriginees themselves
What are the solutions. Obviously a few blog lines are insufficent.
Starting points to address may be:
Attitude & Perspectives : by black and by white seem wide
Reconciliation :means different things to black & white
Vision;what do Elders teach kids to aspire to and aspire for , how to achieve this
Culture: are kids to be fully ‘westernised’ & if not what culture will they have
Land rights: Elders & Governments need to bring the issue to final conclusion
Location: many settlements are remote so adequate services delivery is too hard
Community-wide unemployment:guarantees the current generation is lost & next
Health , Optical & Dental: free mandatory checks for at least the kids
if this requires free transport , do it
Police: have massive presence everywhere with police trained on social issues
Education opportunities & attendance: relies on solving other issues
Welfare; some linkage of payments to obligations seems inevitable
Legal: which mix if any is to apply
I guess there are enough points listed for some blogers to take shots
Face to face polls are a complete waste of time. End of story
sigh. Ron. This issue, or rather series of issues, is very complex. Ain’t no way it could or should be addressed here. Trust me on this.
bullbutter – the word an asshole uses when he wants to be an ass.
“Not sure what kind of nutcases are prepared to take 16% profit over three years for the ALP but there you go.”
Spot on.
Willia, could we have no more on the Qld rape case please? It has nothing at all to do with the topic of this blog.
Willia = William
Charlie
Gee, it would be crowded on the government benches.
Room for a snooker table on the other side…but alas, it would be a game of dirty pool.
When will they learn???
Glen it is much more likely that Horatio will be ZERO % by Feb. He is a dead man walking, with absolutely no cred either in the Parliament or in the eyes of the public.
Scaper, I see in the same article that Smirky has refused to commit to serving a full term. We may see a few resignations in the near future so that they maximise their super payouts, methinks.
In response to the new poll, and the reaction of many on this blog…
I am not a Brendan Nelson fan. I really don’t know what he stands for,and if I did, I probably wouldn’t agree with it.
But let’s be sensible here. Remember that John Howard was once decried as “Mr 18% – why does this man bother?”. No Liberal leader could possibly expect to get a good approval rating at the moment. The Rudd Government appears to be calmly implementing its policies, and respecting due process, and there are few inroads any Opposition could make now. The latest poll is entirely to be expected.
But there’s still the prospect of a recession (unlikely, but possible) in Australia, and in that case, Labor would risk losing power. The Libs only need a small swing. At least a wishy-washy bloke like Nelson wouldn’t introduce a radical plan like Fightback (which was the only reason Keating survived in 1993 in a recession).
Where I think the Liberals need a re-think is on their attitude to the public sector. They have this mantra that the private sector can always do it better, and we must cut government spending.
This has led to situations in various states where voters haven’t been happy with the amount of funding going to hospitals, schools, public transport etc, yet the alternative government is always promising further cuts. Menzies understood the need for a government to provide solid basic services, as well as to encourage a healthy private sector, particularly small business.
Also, most people don’t like unfair dismissal laws, which allow people to be dismissed unfairly. They want small business to have the right to discuss under-performing employees, but not to rip off those who do a good job.
As the father of teenage children doing part-time jobs, it astounds me what employers think they can get away with these days, like promising shifts and then cancelling them at the last minute because business is quiet, or having an entire workforce as casual labour. It’s “flexibility” for sure, but we’re creating a younger generation which has no loyalty to employers, and a mindset of going to another job whenever you get a bit fed up with the present one. This stuff all works quite well while there’s a labour shortage, but come the recession, the shit will hit the fan in a very messy way.
Rudd has been performing sensationally since becoming P.M. One of Morgan’s more accurate f to f polls.
BTW, I think I’m first?
Quick, call a double dissolution.
Bull butter
Am I the only one who finds it bizarre that according to Morgan’s poll, 60% of people think the coalition will win the next election? Can anyone think of a reason for this?
The Widening?
Daniel @4
Perhaps its the Australian peoples inate sense of humour
Yes Daniel. I think Morgan has got them the other way round? No way people could think the liberals will win the next election. Especially with Mr 14% Nelson as leader. Much lower than Crean LOL.
I’m not that surprised really.
The media told the relatively uninformed that it was close, and they voted (accordingly) conservatively – most populations are change-adverse as a general rule.
Those late swingers are a fickle group too, obviously.
The post election performance by the Libs will have left a very dirty taste in the mouth of relatively commited Liberal voters; liars are liars.
The post election performance by Labour has been exemplary.
Hence back to the stratospheric poll levels from earlier in the year. Even though the elction didn’t turn out that way, polling has told us for 12 months that people wanted something to happen.
It happened…
The sky hasn’t fallen in…
They’re happy (shock horror).
If the ALP implement at the current pace then I’ll be surprised if it doesn’t rise further. The ACT and QLD libs are doing nothing for the conservative cause.
Incedentally:
“A major parcel of land in Canberra’s CBD has been sold for $92 million by public auction today (Dec 14), achieving what is believed to be an Australian record for a property sold at auction” (Property Council)
I spoke to a connected banker who indicated that the govenment change has had no negative impact whatsoever in his circles.
I suggested to him that demographically the electorate’s mood for change could be interpreted as a move away from the stable ‘risk adverse’ culture to a more risk tolerant one. He suggested it was possible.
It’ll be interesting to see tha markets response to Leightons (property buyer) because the price paid was roughly 50% higher than the pack envisioned.
If the bookies started betting on the next election, I reckon it would be 1.33 and 3.20.
Morgan picked the election pretty well, so it’s probably accurate.
On those figures Labor would win a DD in a hyper landslide and win control of the senate. Something for the coalition senators to consider when they vote on the government’s legislation.
Ah, I think you’re right Centre. If you look at the other Morgan poll, the numbers are reversed. I was starting to worry that the Australian population were even more fickle than I thought.
here’s a synopsis of an insider at the McEwen recount
– a full recheck of the primary votes has occurred over the past 3 days – a second recheck is now to occur starting tomorrow
– there will then be a check and re-check of the distribution of the preferences
– about 1% (very rough figure) of the ballots have been challenged and a final determination will be made in Melb at a later date (presumably next week sometime)
– the libs have more scrutineers than labor
– for every one ballot being challenged by labor scrutineers, about 5 or 6 are being challenged by the lib scrutineers
– there are as much as 50 primary votes (perhaps much more) that have clearly been assigned to the wrong candidate
– many of the other challenged ballots will probably stay in the same ‘pile’
– on the basis of all of this, there is strong possibility that the result COULD be turned around
Is bullshit on the banned list, or do we have to continue to put up with Glen’s annoying variation?
And Spiros, is “hyper-landslide” yours? I quite like the sound of it – a bit like an avalanche on red cordial, perhaps.
Boll i use bullbutter not as a curse word but as a word i use to mean unbelievable or crazy.
Any poll that has one side at 60% should be viewed very cautiously.
The poll result was 53/47 this is a 7% swing on top of that = bull butter IMHO.
We need to redistribute seats so that each seat has 70 to 75 thousand people having seats like McEwen with over 100,000 is not democratic. Sure this would mean more seats and who knows who this would favour probably Labor but 85,000+ electorates are a bad thing for democracy how on earth can one person represent 85-100,000 people???
Remember Morgan F2F had 62/38 TPP a week before the election.
Glen – was the poling all year wrong too, or was it a real representation given the circumstances?
No the polls galaxy, newspoll were on the money but AC and Morgan were off target onimod.
Morgan should really be viewed with a grain of salt IMHO.
Glen (14) I doubt we want the federal parliamentary population to increase in line with the general community.
1 person can represent 100K of people on federal issues – if the federal government isn’t fiddling with local issues, and you can go to your state member to moan about schools/roads/hospitals
Glen – how do you know they were off target?
We’re talking about the whole year, not just the last week guesses.
I think the point is that it’s undemocratic having such a wide variation in number of enrolled voters per seat, and 100,000 does seem pretty big to me.
Centre @ 9
Centrebet are actually already running a book on the next federal election – they have the ALP at 1.16 and ‘any other party’ at 4.60.
Not sure what kind of nutcases are prepared to take 16% profit over three years for the ALP but there you go.
19
onimod – when Morgan had Labor consistently at higher than 56-44 and the result being 53-47 id call that off the same with AC who had their results between 55-45 and 60-40 id say that’s a fair way off too.
Glen
The problem is that you’re comparing apples with oranges.
If there’s one thing we all learned is that voting intention changes with proximity to an election, and a bunch of other factors.
I just don’t see how anyone can claim a poll is wrong – every poll tells you something.
No pollster, as far as I know, sets up the exact conditions to match an electoral booth.
It’s more of a case that the question they’re asking is wrong.
You’re assuming, and maybe some polsters are too, that they’re matching an electoral result – they’re not.
The average poll is measuring confidence, which doesn’t necessarily translate to action.
The telling result from the poll, clearly not noise, is the ‘heading in the right direction’ result, and if that is clearly moving, why wouldn’t the overall confidence?
Boll says
“Is bullshit on the banned list, or do we have to continue to put up with Glen’s annoying variation?”
I’ve got quite used to it – somehow a large 2pp lead to the ALP would not be complete without Glen’s folksy rejoiner.
Work to rule, we all love redneck jargon and this is just a way of responding to another terrible poll for my side of politics.
25
Amen to that Glen – and I like your attitude!
Hey i wonder when newspoll will do a proper post opinion poll???
But the real polls to watch will be in Feb next year, maybe Brendan will be Mr 20% by then.
60-40, dare I say we have seen these numbers before.
Rudd has had a good start to his PMship, while the Liberals have flopped into a heap.
I agree with Glen, I feel out HoR seats are too large, this is one reason why I believe scrapping the State’s and using the state electorate maps, which could be used without abolishing the States.
I recognize that the this would cause a malapposition between the various states but would have the added advantage of swifting the majority of seats away from Victoria and NSW.
For both sides of politics the sooner Turnball takes over the better.
At the moment Rudd has no opposition and nelson is obsructing the liberals from taking a serious look at their morally challenged right wingers.
If Turnball took over it would provide some substaintive opposition and trigger a much need internal debate between the “libs” and the “loops”.
I am inclined also to your view BMV after all the States are just a joke, they never get in the media at all except for transport and how bad our hospitals are. State politics is a dead horse.
What’s wrong with Glen being original ‘bullbutter’ at least that’s better than Howards haters calling a Rodent eventhough it was Liberal Senator Bandis who created that title.
Glen can claim to being more original than anything Howard produced in his last term.
If Turnbull is our leader there wont be that much opposition either WTR maybe less lol!
Anyway Turnbull wants to be PM not an Opposition Leader, hence Brendan.
I have always thought what polls like these one, that is ones with extremely wild results, is that a lot people are ashamed to admit who they are willing to vote for. Certainly the result would not be 60-40 at any election but the ALP would clearly be in the lead by a long way and around about 10-15% of Liberal votes are too ashammed to admit that they would vote that way. Which does not suggest smooth sailing for Nelson.
Bullbutter reminds me of a bi-product of stud season…gross.
Denial is no way forward, as I want the libs to be an option for the voters at the next election.
Democracy is paramount.
I just got the Melbourne ‘Age’ and the front page is the Q’ld child’s rape case
The ‘Age’ reports everyone now is running for cover: the Child Safety Officers , Local Mayor , the Police , the local Media , some Aboriginal leaders , Politicians ,
Crown Prosecutor in Cairns is stood down & the Judge still thinks she is right
The Newspapers have “News” to fill their pages
and I continue to support the PM’s statement that the decision is appalling ”
that a 26 year old can rape a 10 year old and walk free in 21st Century Australia
IF , IF , IF those who are running for cover and those who worry about the Judge were to simply accept the gross injustice done to this child ,
THEN EVERYONE may finally start looking at ‘why did it happen’
AND THEN ‘why this is this only an example of aboriginal sex abuse’
AND THEN why this is only a window part of a larger picture of failed aboriginal policys by all Governments including the Aboriginees themselves
What are the solutions. Obviously a few blog lines are insufficent.
Starting points to address may be:
Attitude & Perspectives : by black and by white seem wide
Reconciliation :means different things to black & white
Vision;what do Elders teach kids to aspire to and aspire for , how to achieve this
Culture: are kids to be fully ‘westernised’ & if not what culture will they have
Land rights: Elders & Governments need to bring the issue to final conclusion
Location: many settlements are remote so adequate services delivery is too hard
Community-wide unemployment:guarantees the current generation is lost & next
Health , Optical & Dental: free mandatory checks for at least the kids
if this requires free transport , do it
Police: have massive presence everywhere with police trained on social issues
Education opportunities & attendance: relies on solving other issues
Welfare; some linkage of payments to obligations seems inevitable
Legal: which mix if any is to apply
I guess there are enough points listed for some blogers to take shots
Face to face polls are a complete waste of time. End of story
sigh. Ron. This issue, or rather series of issues, is very complex. Ain’t no way it could or should be addressed here. Trust me on this.
Ron
This thread is discussing the issue.
http://blogs.news.com.au/news/blogocracy/index.php/news/comments/long_term_solutions_for_aboriginal_communities/
Old habits die hard. This result would give Labor 121 seats on a uniform swing. 😉
#34 thanks Scaper, thought it was just my perverted mind.
This is way OT but this statement by James Connaughton, Chairman of the White House Council on Environmental Quality, at Bali requires airing.
“We will lead, we will continue to lead. But leadership also requires others to fall in line and follow,”
So we all fall in line with US leadership, do we?
Extended report at:
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20071213/ts_nm/bali_thursday_dc
According to the Urban dictionary.
bullbutter – the word an asshole uses when he wants to be an ass.
“Not sure what kind of nutcases are prepared to take 16% profit over three years for the ALP but there you go.”
Spot on.
Willia, could we have no more on the Qld rape case please? It has nothing at all to do with the topic of this blog.
Willia = William
Charlie
Gee, it would be crowded on the government benches.
Room for a snooker table on the other side…but alas, it would be a game of dirty pool.
When will they learn???
Glen it is much more likely that Horatio will be ZERO % by Feb. He is a dead man walking, with absolutely no cred either in the Parliament or in the eyes of the public.
I believe this has some merit.
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,22924634-29277,00.html
Scaper, I see in the same article that Smirky has refused to commit to serving a full term. We may see a few resignations in the near future so that they maximise their super payouts, methinks.
In response to the new poll, and the reaction of many on this blog…
I am not a Brendan Nelson fan. I really don’t know what he stands for,and if I did, I probably wouldn’t agree with it.
But let’s be sensible here. Remember that John Howard was once decried as “Mr 18% – why does this man bother?”. No Liberal leader could possibly expect to get a good approval rating at the moment. The Rudd Government appears to be calmly implementing its policies, and respecting due process, and there are few inroads any Opposition could make now. The latest poll is entirely to be expected.
But there’s still the prospect of a recession (unlikely, but possible) in Australia, and in that case, Labor would risk losing power. The Libs only need a small swing. At least a wishy-washy bloke like Nelson wouldn’t introduce a radical plan like Fightback (which was the only reason Keating survived in 1993 in a recession).
Where I think the Liberals need a re-think is on their attitude to the public sector. They have this mantra that the private sector can always do it better, and we must cut government spending.
This has led to situations in various states where voters haven’t been happy with the amount of funding going to hospitals, schools, public transport etc, yet the alternative government is always promising further cuts. Menzies understood the need for a government to provide solid basic services, as well as to encourage a healthy private sector, particularly small business.
Also, most people don’t like unfair dismissal laws, which allow people to be dismissed unfairly. They want small business to have the right to discuss under-performing employees, but not to rip off those who do a good job.
As the father of teenage children doing part-time jobs, it astounds me what employers think they can get away with these days, like promising shifts and then cancelling them at the last minute because business is quiet, or having an entire workforce as casual labour. It’s “flexibility” for sure, but we’re creating a younger generation which has no loyalty to employers, and a mindset of going to another job whenever you get a bit fed up with the present one. This stuff all works quite well while there’s a labour shortage, but come the recession, the shit will hit the fan in a very messy way.
Let’s not have hubris yet!