Analysis and discussion of elections and opinion polls in Australia
Morgan: 60.5-39.5
Roy Morgan’s first face-to-face poll of the Rudd era shows Labor with a predictably bloated two-party lead of 60.5-39.5. Read all about it here.
Author: William Bowe
William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.
View all posts by William Bowe
sorry 10th line from the bottom of my previous post should read “dismis under-performing employees”.
Basil
I too think this is the case, but from where I sit , generational change is good for regrowth.
The tip should melt into the sunset as he represents the past.
or even “dismiss”.
BF and Scaper
All Tip wants, all he’s ever wanted, is to be PM, so I think he’s hedging his bets to see what happens and if the Liberals continue on their trajectory toward long-term bickering and despair he’ll leave the back bench and go off to make some serious money. He doesn’t have the will to be leader of her maj’s opposition.
60.5 – 39.5, that’s what I’d expect for a new government “honeymoon” poll. I’m sure if Newspoll, ACN or even Galaxy did a poll now it’ll show a jump in support for Labor.
I’m surprised the vote counting isn’t completed yet. According to AEC only 94.76 of the primary vote and 94.16 of the two party preferred has been counted so far … and this is almost three weeks after the election! In NZ it only takes them a couple of weeks to count all the votes. Still this is the first Australian election I’ve followed closely and perhaps I’m underestimating how long it takes to count up all the votes.
Finally has anyone had a look at ABC Elections? Antony Green now lists Labor as having won 83 (not 84) seats … apparently in McEwen the Liberals are ahead again with around 50.9% of the TPP.
Speaking of recessions, where were the credit rating agencies when the thunder clouds were gathering in the US? And how the hell did the supposed wunderkinder with all their MBA’s and computer models ever get to be in charge of the banking asylum. They have obviously violated every rule in the banking handbook with their lending practices. We have a much better chance of surviving a recession with Labor in power anyway, as opposed to the neo-cons and assorted right wing loonies in the Tories.
Are there any right leaning blogs out there? If so, maybe Glen can tootle off over to it for a while.
Basil
If we go into recession, Labor would be the better party to lead us through it and large scale infrastructure projects would fill the employment void.
So all in all, the future looks bright and it feels great!
Kiwi pundit @ 55
Not sure where you got that info re McEwen now favouring the libs – no one is doing any ongoing count for the recount. All disputed ballots are to be sent to Melb for final determination – so no accurate result will be known until mid to late next week.
Not even the scrutineers are able to determine numbers of votes going either way – besides they havent even got close to doing a distribution of preferences in the recount
Kiwi,
I think you’ll find that the 94.76% represents a percentage of the total enrolment, and that now all votes have been counted. If there are any outstanding, they are likely to be votes in dispute in the McEwen recount. The reason for the lesser 2PP percentage is probably the fact that declarations of the poll have not yet been held for all electorates, so that distribution of preferences may lag a little in places.
While Antony can speak for himself, I’m sure that the 2PP figures you quote for McEwen relate to an earlier stage of the count. If Fran Bailey leads with 50.9% of the vote, that would imply a margin in excess of 1,700 votes – inconceivable the way the count has progressed. The AEC has both candidates on 50.00%, consistent with a margin of single-figure votes.
Antony has not allocated McEwen as a Labor gain, no doubt awaiting confirmation (or otherwise) from the recount. Until that occurs it remains a Liberal seat.
With the days counting coming to a close I thought I would report on the progress of teh count and teh joyful news to lift and help you regain your Christmas spirit
Victorian Senate Count is now at 95.45% of the enrolled vote
Whilst there still is a high unproportioned vote waiting to be distributed the counting to date show that the Greens require a super whopping 117% of the available minor party Below-the-line preferences. Well and truly out of reach for teh Greens.
The Greens still have not conceded the election using the Howard defence that they will wait until the official declaration of the poll.
Sadly, yet jofully, the Liberal surplus preferences will not help and will not be distributed as David Feeney will be declared elected earlier in the count.
It is a shame in a way, because had the Liberal preferences been distributed it would have shown up the extent of distortion in the way the AEC counts the votes.
25% of the Liberal Candidates surplus is represented by 8% of the number of ballot papers that originally came from minor parties at full value. Had the Liberal surplus been distributed the minor party vote would have been devalued from 25% down to 8% and Liberal ticket vote, which benefits the Greens, would have increased disproportionally from 75% to 92% in value.
Resulting in a unfair unjust win-fall to the Greens – equivalent to 2508 votes. 2508 votes the Greens do not deserve or merit.
SUMMARY STATISTICS TO DATE
Party, Liberal, ALP, Green, Others (BTL), Total, Quota
Votes, 1376849, 1364169, 413641, 22373, 3177032, 453863
43.338%, 42.938%, 13.020%, 0.704%, 14.286%
Quotas, 3.0336, 3.0057, 0.9114, 0.0493,
Liberal surplus @8:92, 0.0029, 0.0308
% of Minor Party BTL required, 0.0000, 117.4%, 1.0000 Estimated Final Result, 457743, 441033
Statistics on the disproportionate allocation of Liberal “Surplus” Preferences
Value of surplus 15264
% of quota 0.033631075
to ALP 0.008382255
to Greens 0.02524882
Disproportional Ratio 8:92
Minor Party 1296
Liberal Ticket 13968
Total Candidate Surplus 15264
Proportional ratio 25:75
Minor Party 3804
Liberal Ticket 11459
Total Candidate Surplus 15264
Added (distorted) value to Liberal/Green preferences 2508
Kiwipundit 94.76% etc. The difference is those on roll compared with those who voted. The other 4-5% were looking after their sick grandparents, fell down the stairs and were bedridden, got lost interstate and were too far from a central polling place etc or they were good taxpayers contributing some extra revenue..
Is it just me or is the Roy Morgan GCR only slightly more accurate than me polling my cat and house plants?
scaper,
The git leopard tip no iceberg has not changed his spots. Sniping at his comrades in arms when he didn’t have the guts to do anything about it is the act of a dingo (apologies to dingoes).
Peter and potato_masher,
This is the information I got on the ABC Elections site:
When I scrolled down to McEwen it had the TPP at 50.9%. It may well be an earlier count. If it is, I’m puzzled as to why McEwen is not included as an “In Doubt” ot “too close to call” seat on the ABC site.
With due respect to Antony, the ABC is not in charge of counting the votes. The AEC website is where you need to look. All there is to know about McEwen at the moment is that the recount is in progress. You’ll just have to wait and see.
I guess the Morgan Poll is more important than Aboriginal problems
So Gary Morgan in his “expert political analysis” of the 60.5%-39.5% says:
“What Brendan Nelson and his colleagues need to understand is the reasons why they lost the election, especially the role the Reserve Bank (RBA) played.”
Hello Gary , was this the major factor ?
PS/
On the “are we going in the right direction” ,
64% said yes , 16.5% said No and 19.5% said they did not know
So according to Gary , 19.5% are lost
This is not a site for discussing Aboriginal problems.
Please Mr. Shanahan, let my people go.
“By ratifying the Kyoto Protocol, Rudd set himself apart from the Howard government’s refusal to do so, but apart from that Australia’s approach hardly changed at all. Because of a lack of political will and preparedness, John Howard allowed himself to be painted as a climate change denier who was trailing Labor by light years. In fact, there was only a slight difference between policies”.
Just for the record…..the term Bull Butter first originated in the US of A Senate, when the Senate Dairy block vehmently opposed the introduction of margarine into the market place, back in the late 20’s, early 30’s I think.
It was used in an obviously degratory way to describe the introduction of the yellow “grease” that was threatening their livelihood.
So, Glenn’s frequent use of it is generally appropriate to the context of his view of other people’s opinion and not a “religious” version of bullsh*t.
On the other hand, at times, Glen could be described as a Butter Ball product, but I’ll let you look that one up.
Cheers and Merry Xmas to all from the beautiful Tropics, NSMM.
It is not included in the doubtful category because I changed the settings. If you check the AEC site, you will find that all the 2PP counts have been removed for McEwen. What you’re getting on the ABC site at the moment is a set of preference estimates pre-loaded from before polling day, some basic formulas used on election night before any preference counts are received. As Adam says, use the AEC site for details of what’s going on in McEwen. I know the AEC had to change their software two days ago to supress the 2PP. I can’t be bothered re-configuring the entire ABC system at this late stage to cope with a re-count. It will fix itself when the re-count is finally released.
Just to clarify that, if I change the settings to put McEwen back into doubtful, then every seat currently closer than the count in the ABC computer for McEwen will also become doubtful. One of the consequences of completely automating the decision formulas.
The whole small business thing:
Are the Liberals small business support a good or bad thing for them at the moment?
68
The Finnigans
Oh my god, that Shamahan is making it up again! Who’d ever have thought it possible, eh?
Howard was on all fours sniffing behind George Bush, Rudd on the other hand has declared to the international community that the US is a laggard and must get with the rest of us.
No small difference there?
As for not nailing down targets, Rudd is being true to the commitment he made to the electorate on making the assesments with Garnaut and Treasury (if he was able to) and that’s precisely how he’s playing it.
Meanwhile, Howard fibbed and fudged about our rocketing emmissions and did one of his trademark lies ie, that we were doing OK by Kyoto standards. Yeah, only if you thought increasing carbon dioxide output by 30% over 1990 levels was a reasonable thing to be doing.
The big Sham is a disgraceful excuse for a journalist, and a wretched camp follower for a defeated political party.
73 Kirribili- Have you detected a change in the GGs leanings since the election? I have found that Paul Kelly and Shama have been a bit more even handed. It has helped that Overies has been given a holiday. I can pick up the GG without feeling the need to put it through the nearest shredder now. I think Rupert told them to start playing nicely with his new friend Kevin.
74
Diogenes
To tell you the truth Diogenes, I’ve hardly looked at the accursed rag since the election, and only beforehand for a laugh. You may be right, but my general feeling is that the zietgiest has well and truly changed since Rudd did slay the Jabbawocky. In just a few short weeks the Liberals have become a thing of derision, their mythological status has been well and truly exposed as crappola, and we’ve all moved on to the important stuff. No doubt this even permeates the brains of card carrying conservatives like Shamahan, and they’ll end up following the rest us in good time.
I think the expression is ‘tipping point’, and we hit it well and truly, and tipped the lot of them out in the process. The rusted on are just a lot slower to catch on, eh?
Oh dear not more bitching about The Australian, you’d think it was the only news source in Australia. If you’re stupid enough to buy it, at least spare us your shock and amazement at discovering over and over again that it’s a Liberal propaganda rag. Are you incapable of learning this fact?
Adam,
surely the fact that the Oz is the nation’s only national newspaper gives it enough status to be worthy of criticism for it’s obvious editorial bias. In the same way as the ABC cops it from both sides for her perceived leanings. It ‘s about media integrity and have a reliable news source, and we have been sadly lacking this from the print media, with the slavish devotion of the national newspaper to the previous governnment.
(God, i love saying “previous”).
All Tip wants, all he’s ever wanted, is to be PM, so I think he’s hedging his bets to see what happens and if the Liberals continue on their trajectory toward long-term bickering and despair he’ll leave the back bench and go off to make some serious money. He doesn’t have the will to be leader of her maj’s opposition.
I’ll be a lot happier when he cuts and runs with supr stuffed pockets. If he hasn’t resigned by the end of March he probably won’t but will sit back while someone else does the heavy lifting and then challenge.
Now if only Dolly would take the hint and POQ, but lets face it the bloke is virtually unemployable – there aren’t a lot of villages looking for an idiot these days.
I think those in the media and here who are wishing for Turnbull to take over the leadership of the Libs now are making a big mistake. If he did so, he would be a (possibly) progressive in a party in which the majority are very conservative, both in the Parliamentary party and in the membership generally, especially in NSW, SA and WA. I think that situation would only lead to more disruption than Nelson currently faces. I think their best hope of reform and recuperation lies in a softly softly approach which Nelson is more likely to provide, if only because he is too witless and politically weak to do otherwise.
I suspect that Rudd and co would like Turnbull to take over sooner rather than later so he can be demolished before the party can build any defences around him. I think next years Parliamentary sittings are going to be brutal for the Coalition.
Are they still a coalition?
Yes Jen but we KNOW all that already, it’s been said THOUSANDS of times here this year. Why does it need to be said again, every single day? “Oh god I bought The Australian AGAIN and it’s STILL a Liberal rag! I’m so SHOCKED! Maybe it’ll all be different tomorrow.”
Antony,
Has the ABC given you the DCM? your stats are no longer there. Is the election over?
Adam,
I’m 135 over 80: I don’t intend to increase it by reading the Australian (BTB what a crap name, name v content)
Oh Adam,
indulge us lesser mortals occasionally.
After all you have your own little bee about the DLP do you not?
#76. There is a big difference between “bitching” and pointing out the folly of the argument. If you can’t tell the difference, I feel sorry for you.
BTW: have not bought a print newspaper since the browser Mosaic ver. 0.1 made its debut.
“are they still a coalition?”
Question is- do they still have a pulse?
The Oz has average daily sales of approx. 129k………….not really that influential I would of thought
Mike Cusack, like your thinking. Love the image of Horatio half Nelson reviving and renewing the Libs. What do you think it could do to the polls? Sends note to self: stop giggling.
‘He’s a scrutineer, not a scrote-ineer. He’s meant to be electing his member not erecting his own.’
red womb,
and the answer is?
Apolgolies to wombats of the colour red.
It wasn’t Fran doing it
No a candidate is not allowed to scrutineer
red wombat,
two posits:
1) “Unfortunately, Gran (?) Fran Bailey hasn’t shown the same sense of decency and tact, as he’s still been sighted supervising counting as recently as this morning.”
2) It wasn’t Fran doing it
¿Que?
I will indulge you Jen re the ‘oz’ !
but please do not expect Shanahan to be anything other than a Liberal mouthpiece
whose readership IS mainly Liberal
57
cleanfred – now i know how Andrew Bolt and co feel to have people saying you shouldn’t have free speech unless it’s left wing…this is the real world fred not lala land where only left wingers reside.
Andrew Bolt works for the Herald which is another Liberal rag
sorry 10th line from the bottom of my previous post should read “dismis under-performing employees”.
Basil
I too think this is the case, but from where I sit , generational change is good for regrowth.
The tip should melt into the sunset as he represents the past.
or even “dismiss”.
BF and Scaper
All Tip wants, all he’s ever wanted, is to be PM, so I think he’s hedging his bets to see what happens and if the Liberals continue on their trajectory toward long-term bickering and despair he’ll leave the back bench and go off to make some serious money. He doesn’t have the will to be leader of her maj’s opposition.
60.5 – 39.5, that’s what I’d expect for a new government “honeymoon” poll. I’m sure if Newspoll, ACN or even Galaxy did a poll now it’ll show a jump in support for Labor.
I’m surprised the vote counting isn’t completed yet. According to AEC only 94.76 of the primary vote and 94.16 of the two party preferred has been counted so far … and this is almost three weeks after the election! In NZ it only takes them a couple of weeks to count all the votes. Still this is the first Australian election I’ve followed closely and perhaps I’m underestimating how long it takes to count up all the votes.
Finally has anyone had a look at ABC Elections? Antony Green now lists Labor as having won 83 (not 84) seats … apparently in McEwen the Liberals are ahead again with around 50.9% of the TPP.
Speaking of recessions, where were the credit rating agencies when the thunder clouds were gathering in the US? And how the hell did the supposed wunderkinder with all their MBA’s and computer models ever get to be in charge of the banking asylum. They have obviously violated every rule in the banking handbook with their lending practices. We have a much better chance of surviving a recession with Labor in power anyway, as opposed to the neo-cons and assorted right wing loonies in the Tories.
Are there any right leaning blogs out there? If so, maybe Glen can tootle off over to it for a while.
Basil
If we go into recession, Labor would be the better party to lead us through it and large scale infrastructure projects would fill the employment void.
So all in all, the future looks bright and it feels great!
Kiwi pundit @ 55
Not sure where you got that info re McEwen now favouring the libs – no one is doing any ongoing count for the recount. All disputed ballots are to be sent to Melb for final determination – so no accurate result will be known until mid to late next week.
Not even the scrutineers are able to determine numbers of votes going either way – besides they havent even got close to doing a distribution of preferences in the recount
Kiwi,
I think you’ll find that the 94.76% represents a percentage of the total enrolment, and that now all votes have been counted. If there are any outstanding, they are likely to be votes in dispute in the McEwen recount. The reason for the lesser 2PP percentage is probably the fact that declarations of the poll have not yet been held for all electorates, so that distribution of preferences may lag a little in places.
While Antony can speak for himself, I’m sure that the 2PP figures you quote for McEwen relate to an earlier stage of the count. If Fran Bailey leads with 50.9% of the vote, that would imply a margin in excess of 1,700 votes – inconceivable the way the count has progressed. The AEC has both candidates on 50.00%, consistent with a margin of single-figure votes.
Antony has not allocated McEwen as a Labor gain, no doubt awaiting confirmation (or otherwise) from the recount. Until that occurs it remains a Liberal seat.
With the days counting coming to a close I thought I would report on the progress of teh count and teh joyful news to lift and help you regain your Christmas spirit
Victorian Senate Count is now at 95.45% of the enrolled vote
Whilst there still is a high unproportioned vote waiting to be distributed the counting to date show that the Greens require a super whopping 117% of the available minor party Below-the-line preferences. Well and truly out of reach for teh Greens.
The Greens still have not conceded the election using the Howard defence that they will wait until the official declaration of the poll.
Sadly, yet jofully, the Liberal surplus preferences will not help and will not be distributed as David Feeney will be declared elected earlier in the count.
It is a shame in a way, because had the Liberal preferences been distributed it would have shown up the extent of distortion in the way the AEC counts the votes.
25% of the Liberal Candidates surplus is represented by 8% of the number of ballot papers that originally came from minor parties at full value. Had the Liberal surplus been distributed the minor party vote would have been devalued from 25% down to 8% and Liberal ticket vote, which benefits the Greens, would have increased disproportionally from 75% to 92% in value.
Resulting in a unfair unjust win-fall to the Greens – equivalent to 2508 votes. 2508 votes the Greens do not deserve or merit.
SUMMARY STATISTICS TO DATE
Party, Liberal, ALP, Green, Others (BTL), Total, Quota
Votes, 1376849, 1364169, 413641, 22373, 3177032, 453863
43.338%, 42.938%, 13.020%, 0.704%, 14.286%
Quotas, 3.0336, 3.0057, 0.9114, 0.0493,
Liberal surplus @8:92, 0.0029, 0.0308
% of Minor Party BTL required, 0.0000, 117.4%, 1.0000
Estimated Final Result, 457743, 441033
Statistics on the disproportionate allocation of Liberal “Surplus” Preferences
Value of surplus 15264
% of quota 0.033631075
to ALP 0.008382255
to Greens 0.02524882
Disproportional Ratio 8:92
Minor Party 1296
Liberal Ticket 13968
Total Candidate Surplus 15264
Proportional ratio 25:75
Minor Party 3804
Liberal Ticket 11459
Total Candidate Surplus 15264
Added (distorted) value to Liberal/Green preferences 2508
Kiwipundit 94.76% etc. The difference is those on roll compared with those who voted. The other 4-5% were looking after their sick grandparents, fell down the stairs and were bedridden, got lost interstate and were too far from a central polling place etc or they were good taxpayers contributing some extra revenue..
Is it just me or is the Roy Morgan GCR only slightly more accurate than me polling my cat and house plants?
scaper,
The git leopard tip no iceberg has not changed his spots. Sniping at his comrades in arms when he didn’t have the guts to do anything about it is the act of a dingo (apologies to dingoes).
Peter and potato_masher,
This is the information I got on the ABC Elections site:
http://www.abc.net.au/elections/federal/2007/results/latest.htm
When I scrolled down to McEwen it had the TPP at 50.9%. It may well be an earlier count. If it is, I’m puzzled as to why McEwen is not included as an “In Doubt” ot “too close to call” seat on the ABC site.
With due respect to Antony, the ABC is not in charge of counting the votes. The AEC website is where you need to look. All there is to know about McEwen at the moment is that the recount is in progress. You’ll just have to wait and see.
I guess the Morgan Poll is more important than Aboriginal problems
So Gary Morgan in his “expert political analysis” of the 60.5%-39.5% says:
“What Brendan Nelson and his colleagues need to understand is the reasons why they lost the election, especially the role the Reserve Bank (RBA) played.”
Hello Gary , was this the major factor ?
PS/
On the “are we going in the right direction” ,
64% said yes , 16.5% said No and 19.5% said they did not know
So according to Gary , 19.5% are lost
This is not a site for discussing Aboriginal problems.
Please Mr. Shanahan, let my people go.
“By ratifying the Kyoto Protocol, Rudd set himself apart from the Howard government’s refusal to do so, but apart from that Australia’s approach hardly changed at all. Because of a lack of political will and preparedness, John Howard allowed himself to be painted as a climate change denier who was trailing Labor by light years. In fact, there was only a slight difference between policies”.
http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/dennisshanahan/index.php/theaustralian/comments/rudd_fends_off_ambush_with_a_nod_to_howard
Just for the record…..the term Bull Butter first originated in the US of A Senate, when the Senate Dairy block vehmently opposed the introduction of margarine into the market place, back in the late 20’s, early 30’s I think.
It was used in an obviously degratory way to describe the introduction of the yellow “grease” that was threatening their livelihood.
So, Glenn’s frequent use of it is generally appropriate to the context of his view of other people’s opinion and not a “religious” version of bullsh*t.
On the other hand, at times, Glen could be described as a Butter Ball product, but I’ll let you look that one up.
Cheers and Merry Xmas to all from the beautiful Tropics, NSMM.
It is not included in the doubtful category because I changed the settings. If you check the AEC site, you will find that all the 2PP counts have been removed for McEwen. What you’re getting on the ABC site at the moment is a set of preference estimates pre-loaded from before polling day, some basic formulas used on election night before any preference counts are received. As Adam says, use the AEC site for details of what’s going on in McEwen. I know the AEC had to change their software two days ago to supress the 2PP. I can’t be bothered re-configuring the entire ABC system at this late stage to cope with a re-count. It will fix itself when the re-count is finally released.
Just to clarify that, if I change the settings to put McEwen back into doubtful, then every seat currently closer than the count in the ABC computer for McEwen will also become doubtful. One of the consequences of completely automating the decision formulas.
The whole small business thing:
Are the Liberals small business support a good or bad thing for them at the moment?
68
The Finnigans
Oh my god, that Shamahan is making it up again! Who’d ever have thought it possible, eh?
Howard was on all fours sniffing behind George Bush, Rudd on the other hand has declared to the international community that the US is a laggard and must get with the rest of us.
No small difference there?
As for not nailing down targets, Rudd is being true to the commitment he made to the electorate on making the assesments with Garnaut and Treasury (if he was able to) and that’s precisely how he’s playing it.
Meanwhile, Howard fibbed and fudged about our rocketing emmissions and did one of his trademark lies ie, that we were doing OK by Kyoto standards. Yeah, only if you thought increasing carbon dioxide output by 30% over 1990 levels was a reasonable thing to be doing.
The big Sham is a disgraceful excuse for a journalist, and a wretched camp follower for a defeated political party.
73 Kirribili- Have you detected a change in the GGs leanings since the election? I have found that Paul Kelly and Shama have been a bit more even handed. It has helped that Overies has been given a holiday. I can pick up the GG without feeling the need to put it through the nearest shredder now. I think Rupert told them to start playing nicely with his new friend Kevin.
74
Diogenes
To tell you the truth Diogenes, I’ve hardly looked at the accursed rag since the election, and only beforehand for a laugh. You may be right, but my general feeling is that the zietgiest has well and truly changed since Rudd did slay the Jabbawocky. In just a few short weeks the Liberals have become a thing of derision, their mythological status has been well and truly exposed as crappola, and we’ve all moved on to the important stuff. No doubt this even permeates the brains of card carrying conservatives like Shamahan, and they’ll end up following the rest us in good time.
I think the expression is ‘tipping point’, and we hit it well and truly, and tipped the lot of them out in the process. The rusted on are just a lot slower to catch on, eh?
Oh dear not more bitching about The Australian, you’d think it was the only news source in Australia. If you’re stupid enough to buy it, at least spare us your shock and amazement at discovering over and over again that it’s a Liberal propaganda rag. Are you incapable of learning this fact?
Adam,
surely the fact that the Oz is the nation’s only national newspaper gives it enough status to be worthy of criticism for it’s obvious editorial bias. In the same way as the ABC cops it from both sides for her perceived leanings. It ‘s about media integrity and have a reliable news source, and we have been sadly lacking this from the print media, with the slavish devotion of the national newspaper to the previous governnment.
(God, i love saying “previous”).
I’ll be a lot happier when he cuts and runs with supr stuffed pockets. If he hasn’t resigned by the end of March he probably won’t but will sit back while someone else does the heavy lifting and then challenge.
Now if only Dolly would take the hint and POQ, but lets face it the bloke is virtually unemployable – there aren’t a lot of villages looking for an idiot these days.
I think those in the media and here who are wishing for Turnbull to take over the leadership of the Libs now are making a big mistake. If he did so, he would be a (possibly) progressive in a party in which the majority are very conservative, both in the Parliamentary party and in the membership generally, especially in NSW, SA and WA. I think that situation would only lead to more disruption than Nelson currently faces. I think their best hope of reform and recuperation lies in a softly softly approach which Nelson is more likely to provide, if only because he is too witless and politically weak to do otherwise.
I suspect that Rudd and co would like Turnbull to take over sooner rather than later so he can be demolished before the party can build any defences around him. I think next years Parliamentary sittings are going to be brutal for the Coalition.
Are they still a coalition?
Yes Jen but we KNOW all that already, it’s been said THOUSANDS of times here this year. Why does it need to be said again, every single day? “Oh god I bought The Australian AGAIN and it’s STILL a Liberal rag! I’m so SHOCKED! Maybe it’ll all be different tomorrow.”
Antony,
Has the ABC given you the DCM? your stats are no longer there. Is the election over?
Adam,
I’m 135 over 80: I don’t intend to increase it by reading the Australian (BTB what a crap name, name v content)
Oh Adam,
indulge us lesser mortals occasionally.
After all you have your own little bee about the DLP do you not?
#76. There is a big difference between “bitching” and pointing out the folly of the argument. If you can’t tell the difference, I feel sorry for you.
BTW: have not bought a print newspaper since the browser Mosaic ver. 0.1 made its debut.
“are they still a coalition?”
Question is- do they still have a pulse?
The Oz has average daily sales of approx. 129k………….not really that influential I would of thought
Ah the Libs
http://andrewlanderyou.blogspot.com/
wombat,
Sorry? Is a candidate allowed to scrut?
Mike Cusack, like your thinking. Love the image of Horatio half Nelson reviving and renewing the Libs. What do you think it could do to the polls? Sends note to self: stop giggling.
‘He’s a scrutineer, not a scrote-ineer. He’s meant to be electing his member not erecting his own.’
red womb,
and the answer is?
Apolgolies to wombats of the colour red.
It wasn’t Fran doing it
No a candidate is not allowed to scrutineer
red wombat,
two posits:
1) “Unfortunately, Gran (?) Fran Bailey hasn’t shown the same sense of decency and tact, as he’s still been sighted supervising counting as recently as this morning.”
2) It wasn’t Fran doing it
¿Que?
I will indulge you Jen re the ‘oz’ !
but please do not expect Shanahan to be anything other than a Liberal mouthpiece
whose readership IS mainly Liberal
57
cleanfred – now i know how Andrew Bolt and co feel to have people saying you shouldn’t have free speech unless it’s left wing…this is the real world fred not lala land where only left wingers reside.
Andrew Bolt works for the Herald which is another Liberal rag
The media is mainly right wing
The Age is great
Bull Butter Ron
Why aren’t you forgetting the Canberra Times????