Morgan: 60.5-39.5

Roy Morgan’s first face-to-face poll of the Rudd era shows Labor with a predictably bloated two-party lead of 60.5-39.5. Read all about it here.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

561 comments on “Morgan: 60.5-39.5”

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  1. During this Election , I had some free time to waste so I taped the first 10 minutes of ALL 4 TV stations News services and then compared their coverage for balance

    Channel 9: cut and pasted adversely alot of Rudd’s sentences either changing their value or Rudd’s reasons for a particular issue
    whereas Howard’s clips always contained a full sentence at least reflecting his view and its reasons

    I provided John Westacott director of 9 News with numerous examples but of course got no reply

    7 favored the Libs significantly but not as badly or blatantly as 9

    10 were even handed but light on detail (young audience

    ABC like 10 were even handed but unlike 10 gave more detail

    I had not noticed 7 or 9 bias in previous elections

  2. Glen, you seem to have forgotten who won the election, now we get to say who is biased, and we get to revise history and stack the ABC Board. You guys had your turn!

  3. Ron most of the TV News was heavily pro-Rudd, Channel 9 was clearly pro-Rudd as was 10 in fact 7 was more balanced as was the ABC compared to 9 and 10. Paul B. and Laurie Oakes voted for Rudd on election day that’s for sure.

  4. Mike Cusack i agree.
    Keating destroyed Downer so he was replaced by Howard
    Whitlam destroyed Snedden so he was replaced by Fraser

    be careful for what one wishs

  5. Tell me with a straight face that Oakes and Paul B are tories! They are Labor voters through and through they just dont have the guts to say this on air.

    Ron i am allowed to say who is biased! Just because we lost doesnt mean i cant say whether the media have been biased as they have been to Brendan Nelson undermining him at every stage.

    My picks of the News Media…

    Pro Rudd Camp
    Channel 9
    Channel 10

    Balanced/Leaning Rudd
    ABC

    Balanced/Leaning Howard
    Channel 7

  6. Godness, Glen, aren’t you guys going to haveto come up with something else other than media bias or failure to “renew” according to Tip?

  7. Doesn’t Senator Macdonald realise the WA LIbs and Nats are no longer in a coalition and will never become one.

    [A FORMER Howard Government minister says the Nationals are “essentially finished” as a political force and should merge with the Liberal Party.

    The call came as former treasurer Peter Costello lamented the slow recognition of the need for renewal by the Liberals.

    “If you don’t renew yourself the electorate will renew you in its own way,” Mr Costello said in Melbourne.

    Queensland Liberal Senator Ian Macdonald, the former Minister for Fisheries, Forestry and Conservation, today urged the Nationals to join the Liberals to form a united conservative party.

    He said it was a “farce” that the two parties pretend to be different.

    It’s not the first merger proposal between the two parties, with then prime minister John Howard and Nationals leader Mark Vaile blocking a proposal from Queensland Nationals leader Lawrence Springborg and his Liberal counterpart Bob Quinn in 2006.

    “I think the National Party should join with the Liberal Party, in the way that was almost accomplished 18 months ago now,” Senator Macdonald said.

    “I think it’s essential in Queensland, and I really think its essential Australia-wide.

    “The National Party are essentially finished as a political force anyhow. “We go to elections under the same leader with the same policies – why we are maintaining the masquerade of two separate parties I’m not sure.

    “I think it is a farce almost to continue to pretend that we are two parties.”]

    http://www.news.com.au/perthnow/story/0,21598,22924634-5005361,00.html

  8. Im not blaming the media entirely for our loss, even though they were partly to blame but obviously they alone did not cause us to lose, we just got past our used by date that’s all.

  9. 01
    Basil Fawlty Says: now we get to say who is biased, and we get to revise history

    so Basil can we rewrite history to show Howard was the worst Treasurer in History

    I mean he scored the trifecta:
    11% inflation,22% interest rates and 11% unemployment in 1982 ?

  10. Glen, Horatio does not need anyone to undermine him, he does it all on his lonesome. In fact I think he earned his doctorate in that very subject.

  11. Interesting West Poll of 400 voters had the Tories up in WA 52-48 may have been a bull butter poll but still better news for the Tories even with a shocking leader!

  12. Yes Ron, I think it is already happening. I can also recall in a past life when I was intimately involved in the tax industry there was a little scam known as bottom of the harbour, which of course flourished under the tutelage of King Rat.

  13. The Nats are a dead force in politics they hold a rump of 10 mainly inland seats.

    The Liberal Party holds more rural seats than them and yet the Nats are somehow more representative of the ‘country’.

    Having 10 seats out of potentially 65 and yet holding the Deputy Opposition Leadership is a joke IMHO.

    The only problem is some Rural group probably Katter will start up a so called ‘Country Party’ which could split the Tory votes in those areas in QLD and NSW. I dont think that Malle and Gippsland will be too hard for a combined Tory party to hold IMHO.

  14. Before they became the ‘national’ party , the Country Party was socialists for Farmers production in wheat , wool etc. all production bought by the Government

  15. I mean most of our seats are rural semi rural seats and yet we’re somehow not the voice of rural Australia. The Liberal Party is more the party of rural areas not the Nats anyway i dont think people would be unhappy about having a Liberal MP than a Nats MP.

    I mean im glad Brendan took Trade off them but for gods sake they lost 2 seats they held many more that they hold are marginal and they didnt get Flynn almost a shoe in seat on paper.

    The only trouble is some Nats like the QLD Nats probably wont agree and splinter and what to do with naming a single Tory party???

    Conservative Party of Australia

    United Australia Party (the 1930s/40s)

    All for Australia Party

    ???????

  16. Glen, possum, wee one, and so forth, you’ve got to get one concept under you belt before you go to bed tonight. Blaming is BAD, it’s DYSFUNCTIONAL. Once you stop blaming other people for what goes wrong in your life, then you can begin to do things that make your life different. I’m sure there are therapists out there you can access.

  17. Ron, Glen, Basil,

    I know… you’re on topic, but … are you arguing about the stats or their interpretation, trying to change each others’ views, or what?

    Don’t get me wrong, I’m ROTLFLMAO: keep going, but consider William’s download costs.

    (William, again, please tell me how to contribute other than through PayPal)

  18. Did any of you guys get deflated by the change in Polls from the weekend before the Election (Labor 54-46 minimum)
    to the 2 Polls only 4 days later of 52-48 (& Morgan 53.50 – 46.50 from 55-45) ???

  19. Viggo, just having a bit of sport, flushing out the pheasants don’t you know. Such jolly fun, and yes I have contributed my share to W Bowe Esq bandwidth fund.

  20. #
    127
    Basil Fawlty Says:
    December 15th, 2007 at 12:21 am

    Ron, no, I kept the faith as my postings on election day prove.

    Basil , I may have given the wrong impression
    I never doubted Rudd would win due mainly to workchoices , climate & Howard retiring and so removing any reason for ‘swingers’ to vote FOR him

    But I was deflated as for 9 months it looked like a landslide and it was taken away at the last 48 hours to a sound win (but less than Hawke’s 2PP of 53.3%)

  21. It should be an interesting resumption of Parliament now that Labor will have access to all the Defence Dept papers concerning the buzz bombs, sorry, FA-18 Hornets. Will be fun to see Horatio squirm in his seat as the expert opinions are trotted out.

  22. I can’t afford the grandstand but I’m happy to shout from the peanut gallery. I can say with HH that I have never voted liberal, but I try to vote for parties or people who have a social conscience and that means that my preferences will usually go to Labor. I see very little value in the reactionary parties’ postulation that there is a drip down effect if you give lots of our tax money to the rich: the government is there to look after those who cannot look after themselves, if that means increasing the public service to employ those who are otherwise unemployable that’s fine by me.

    Also, infrastructure of assets to provide services to the taxpayers should be in the hands of the government (comms hardware, for example). Goods can be provided by the private sector on a commercial basis, regulated to ensure competition.

  23. 134
    Basil Fawlty – There is just as much evidence that will support Dr Nelson so i dont see the big deal???

    Plus the Indonesians are only getting in total 8 SU30s we’ll have 24 F-18Fs plus our other F18s i dont see there being any problems. And if thats the worst you’ve got on the previous government id stick to trying to manage the economy. Oh and Basil i dont see Labor having any policy on the issue, typical gutless ALP attacking us for governing and preventing a gap in our air defence and Labor without its own policy on the issue!

    Swan is such a novice anything he says on the economy is all oh we’ve got to stop inflationary pressures so that pressures to the economy will be reduced WTF does this have to do with Labors policies Wayne!

  24. Glen, tell that to the Air Force, numbers don’t count when your enemy can see further than you can and fly faster and further. we are not fighting the Battle for Britain now.

  25. Glen

    This is the sort of thing Australians voted against when they went to the polls last month:

    He was an innocent witness to a minor scuffle, but he was interrogated for hours. The law forbids him from telling his story, and we cannot name him nor show his face. This is happening in Australia. Andrew West reports.
    Advertisement

    THE bystander was a mild-mannered academic from the University of Melbourne. Passing a building site on the Yarra’s south bank, he witnessed a confrontation between a union official and a building manager. No punches were thrown but the two men pushed each other and grabbed at each other’s shirts.

    But agents of the federal building industry watchdog soon tracked the witness down and hauled him in for several hours of secret questioning, under powers that rival those of Australia’s national security services.

    The man cannot be named and cannot discuss the details of his interrogation for fear of imprisonment.

    More at: http://www.smh.com.au/news/national/even-bystanders-feel-building-watchdogs-bite/2007/12/14/1197568264669.html

  26. Dear oh dear, Glen, you’re going to have to get your head around the fact you’re in Opposition. I love the Locum giving advice to Rudd about what to do as the PM. Himself indoors and me laugh like drains. He’s gone to bed, but I’m still cackling.

  27. 139
    Basil Fawlty – have you read the specs of the F18Fs they have better radar than SU27s can easily take them plus they have better stealth capabilities, and plus these are Indonesians we’re talking about i bet our fighter pilots are far better than theirs.

    Basil 8 just 8 SU30s i mean for petes sake here 8 SU30s against our entire airforce yeah we’re in real danger mate!

    140
    Albert Ross – these things need to be investigated i dont see the problem with him being questioned he didnt do anything wrong so he’d have nothing to fear.

    Harry get over yourself of course i know we’re in Opposition!

  28. And as much as I rate our pilots, among the best in the world, I am also reminded that in WW2 lots of people believed the Japs were so short sighted they wouldn’t be able to fly at all, let alone fight. Look how wrong that was!

  29. Not the war planes again!
    Although, despite my aversion to such topics if there is any chance of further humiliation for th FORMER (love that) government then I guesss I’ll put up with it.
    I am hoping that when Rudd and co. get their hands on the books that the perpetrators of AWB kickbacks, incarceration of innocent refugees , warmongering, climate- change denying bastards get what they deserve – criminal trials.
    There must be a few disgruntled public servants out there who can’t wait to blow a whistle.

  30. re the Nationals
    they are not a seperate voice for country Australia……. they are in a long term decline on an election basis…….10 seats with only 5 safe from Labor and
    popular independents.
    Their problem is that they cannot act independently of the libs…. because they are trapped into supporting the conservative side of politics no matter what.
    WHAT HAPPENS WHEN THE LIBS CHALLENGE IN THE REMAINING “SAFE SEATS”?

  31. Jen

    AWB is one of the prime reasons that terror laws, eg, offering support to a terror organisation were not backdated. Hicks could have been brought back to Australia and charged if such laws were made retrospective, however if they did make the laws retro they would have exposed many.

    Main one exposed would have been Dolly, the $300 million paid by AWB to Saddam undoubtly went part way to paying the families of some of the suicide bombers in Israel, ie financing terror. A crime now in Oz, but not a retrospective crime.

    I doubt that any terror investigation would accept Dolly’s 276 ” I don’t recall, I don’t remember” answers that were accepted by the AWB inquiry. That sort of nonsense of failing memory and dodging responsibility has not helped corporate gentlemen like Bond, Williams and Adler in the past.

    But under current laws the only thing Dolly is guilty of is incompetance and/ or stupidity, not actually a crime for one such as Dolly just a sad acknowledgement of facts.

  32. jen said:

    “are they still a coalition?”
    Question is- do they still have a pulse?

    Well, at least one hasn’t had one for at least 6 years according to highly reliable reports. As for the rest, I hope not but I wish someone would give them a really hard prod to the chest with a tomato stake just to be sure. 😉

    As for Senator McDonald’s assertion that:

    He said it was a “farce” that the two parties pretend to be different.

    The two are different. One is a party of right wing, survival of the fittest capitalists, the other an agrarian socialist, the government owes us a profit party. They only coexist because the latter happily prostitutes itself to the former in return for a modicum of power.

    And my sincerest apologies to any working girl who is offended by being compared to the Nats. 😉

  33. Boys’ toys:

    Glen @142 – ‘The F18Fs have better radar than SU27s can easily take them plus they have better stealth capabilities, and plus these are Indonesians we’re talking about i bet our fighter pilots are far better than theirs.’

    You’re wrong, Glen. Leaving aside the risk of relying on racist assumptions for your national defence, those planes are 1. too slow (slower than counterparts) and 2. have too limited a flying range (can’t make it to any other country without either an aircraft carrier to jump off or a mid-air refuelling, both of which make them sitting ducks). No radar superiority can compensate for that.

    Andrew Peacock and his salesmen seem to have done a great snow job on Nelson. Sales people love bosses like Horatio because they’re so vain that they’re easily swayed into ignoring expert advice and insisting they know best, when in fact they know nothing.

    It’s just the old sales tactic: find the highest-placed incompetent in the organisation and concentrate your efforts on him (or, less often, her). In this case, Nelson was the target.

    I had one boss (temporarily) like that. A big computer company duchessed him into spending millions on their products, all of which had to be junked still in their boxes because they didn’t do – could never do – the job they were bought for.

    I wonder: will the F18Fs ever get taken out of their boxes? They’re almost too expensive to fly!

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