Morgan: 58.5-41.5

Morgan, which ended its recent poor run at the federal level with a 53.5-46.5 result on the eve of the election, has produced the first post-election poll on voting intention. It shows Labor enjoying a honeymoon boost to 58.5-41.5, with a primary vote lead of 49 per cent to 36.5 per cent. Newspoll will presumably return to the fold in the new year.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,031 comments on “Morgan: 58.5-41.5”

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  1. grace pettigrow,
    the problem appears to be that the “legal resolution” is clearly not working. I am not advocating for any action to be taken outside the legal process, but when it fails ( as it does on occasions) then we all have a right to speak out. Including, and especially, our leaders.
    Perhaps one of the most disturbing legacies of Howard and Co. is that it is hard to have any faith in the legal processes of this country,as we watched helplessly as one human rights abuse after another, one cover-up after another, one deception and spin after another allowed terrible acts to take place in our country.
    These range from the despicable teatment of refugees, involvement in a questionable war with the loss of life of perhaps hundreds of thousands, the deportation of citizens and innocent migrants, the blatant land-grab of indigeneous people and the wedging of racism for political gain.
    That is why i am relieved to hear a clear unequivicle statement from Rudd about this case.
    These men pleaded guilty to the gang rape of a ten year old. The judge says she may have consented. What’s to discuss???
    Sometimes i despair at lawyers.

  2. Parra Mod

    The argument with renewables is generally that it can’t produce baseload power, which is to say that it can’t produce a constant, reliable stream of power due to fluctuations of the elements.

    While it is true that an individual solar panel or wind turbine will not necessarily be producing power at a given time, spread across a network, the level of output is surprisingly reliable. Renewables like geothermal, biomass and wave are entirely reliable.

    It should also be factored in that coal is actually far too constant in its output. By necessity, a coal plant produces the same output day or night. Renewables fit much better to the curve of power use. There is no reason that renewables cannot be the sole source for new capacity, including replacement for non-renewable plants at the end of their life, for the next few decades. Beyond that time, the ‘baseload’ options will be mature and who knows what else will be coming up.

  3. Alas, Adam, it pains me to say that your post @ 101 did not quite pass my “emphatic” test on that point about the party nominations.

    You see, “emphatic” is now my #1 top adjective since the MSM settled on it to describe Team Rudd’s margin of victory. :>)

  4. Are you proposing that we lynch the judge, jen? OK, you say you are not proposing any action outside the legal process. But who says its not working? Have you lost faith in the law after only a decade of Howardism?

    I am not objecting to any reporting of the facts, and I am not suggesting that people should not be outraged, but I am advocating that PM Rudd do more than just express his. He has a country to lead.

  5. Don’t despair Jen. I’m sure we share your anger and disgust at what appears to have happened. But allow us a lawyer’s caution at wanting to check the facts (rather than relying solely on the press) before reaching a conclusion regarding this case.

  6. grace p
    as I previously stated I do not advocate any action outside the judicial process. This includes the lynching of judges. ‘
    what I am trying to say is that yes, after a decade of Howard who stacked benches, and passed legislation that would do the KGB proud I have less faith in the judicial process in this country than I feel comfortable about.
    What gives me great hope however, is that i know that many lawyers are themselves uncomfortable with the direction we have been heading in and I expect that much will change in the future.
    in the meantime I take comfort from the fact that our new PM (whom I don’t particularly like by the way), is honest enough to say what he really thinks.
    Cheers.

  7. FG, lol, and it looks like one sydney judge known for speeding away from restaurants is in the process of getting lynched…

  8. Graeme at 112

    ‘PM disgusted by …’

    Shuddered. Howard reaction immediate. Just looked at the reference, equally annoyed to realise it was Kevin. Totally agree, just stay out of the minutae, not that my term intends to diminish the gravity, but leave it, Kevin.

    If it is up to anyone at all to pass comment, it should be confined.

    Not to a Minister, even. And it is a State matter. I detest the way in which Mike Rann bandwagons on to any judicial/parole decision in my State, highly dubious behaviour, which should be left to the DPP or appropriate authority.

    Passing comment on matter which may yet be appealed, to say the least, is absolutely inappropriate.

    And Kevin must be careful not to earn the show pony exhaustion we experienced under Howard. We are still very sensitive to such constant intrusion.

    So Kev should be very careful and keep his mouth shut! On matters not his.

  9. Yes it’s all a bit disheartening when our judicial betters let the side down. He has clearly missed out on my professional ethics classes….being in NSW and all.

  10. grace and FG,
    I’m afraid I struggle to share your faith in the legal system! I don’t think our adversarial system really advances the cause of justice all that effectively.
    I accept that we don’t know all the facts in this case. But I think there are plenty of cases that are decided more on who had the best lawyer, rather than who had the best case. I think that, on the whole, the general public’s scepticism about the system is well-founded.

  11. Crikey Whitey, considering the issues swirling around the NT intervention, it is clearly a national issue when a judge makes such an appalling decision… especially in an indigenous community.

  12. Dyno at 163, yep, some of what you say is probably true. The law is a human creation, with human faults. Its a work in progress. But its all we have to keep the dogs of barbarism at bay.

  13. Well, actually, having delivered that bit of rage, I listened to Christian Kerr on Philip, nothing to do with this matter, but it did occur to me that it was to do with linking the indigeneous outrageous matters, and it did concern Queensland.

    A few outrageous matters have occurred in other States, on which comment has not been passed.

  14. Dyno, I understand the public perceptions. As one who works within the legal system you’ll understand if my view is a little different. There are undoubtedly some cases where the better lawyer won. In the vast majority of cases, however, the best interpretation of the available facts is what decides who wins. As I said earlier, judges are not idiots and it takes more than a clever lawyer to get the better of most of those on the bench. I am not blind to the weaknesses of our legal system (and spend a great deal of my time in trying to improve it), but by and large it’s the best legal system on earth and I am privileged to work with many lawyers who share a passion for justice and are determined to work towards achieving it in the system we have.

  15. Yes a judge may have made an impalling decision but do we know all the facts- the whole story or is it a case of the media going berserk as usual and a prime minster doing the same.

  16. There’s always the benchmark John Laws conviction when the judge decided he was too rich to fine and too famous to give a custodial sentence.

  17. Crikey Whitey you are spot on, to me Rudd should have shut his mouth. Early days but Rudd to me will be a nothing Prime Minister.

  18. gp @ 167,
    Not against those ideas at all. Our system of law is fantastic, compared to most systems that have ever existed in human history.
    But (as I hope you’d agree) we shouldn’t stop pushing our judges and lawyers to do better.
    I was interested in the comment earlier (by you or FG) that the prosecution recommended the course of action the judge took. If that’s right, it would definitely be worth hearing more about why.

  19. 165. I agree with Grace and FG, he should avoid making judgments until he’s properly briefed. PMs surely have a choice of sounding off or counselling patience. And I know the latter plays into tabloid hands, but Bolt et al rely on short-term shock which often dissipates as events play out.

  20. Dyno at 165.

    I must disagree. By and large. In my view it is not the job of any PM to discourse on every matter in the public domain.

    They have a larger job.

    Notwithstanding what I said about the particularity, in this case.

  21. Yes, a toxic amalgam there is to be addressed by the new government. From Telstra/ Sol and the 3 amigos telling the new government to stick it in relation to the broadband roll out, to the very nasty and difficult problems posed by climate change. Nevertheless, the Ruddster has taken off at a cracking pace, and geez, some of the women are frankly phenomenal.

  22. 33 Glen A pole before the election said, number one politician everyone wanted to baby sit their children: Julia Gillard. The politician everyone wanted to invite to tea as a guest: Peter Garret. That’s why the Liberals lost because they were out of touch with the community. And they still don’t know.

  23. I guess my point really is that the PM is asked for a comment on absolutely everything. He (or she) needs to balance conflicting imperatives: (1) don’t shoot from the hip vs (2) speak for the nation.
    I think that in this respect (as in so many others) it’s never an easy job, and I suspect KR will have a few missteps as he gets used to 100% of the spotlight.
    But I actually didn’t have a huge problem with what he said today – I think he actually said he was disgusted and appalled by the reports of what had happened, and that he understood the case was being reviewed. Frankly, he spoke for me in saying this.

  24. Broadband and telecommunications now who was idoit who introduced competition in this area, and what does it provide?
    And who were the idoits who privatised it?
    And who were the idoits who told us that a national broadband network would be easy?

    A Kym dud Beazley
    B John Howard and his pathetic government
    C Rudd and Dudroy and the Labor Party

  25. If Rudd had some courage to his convictions he would have said no comment i will leave that to the Judge and Queensland Government but instead to look like some band wagon jumper or shock jock hero he has to say something, the medias darling boy already or should i say the medias’ love child.

  26. mm @ 183, why do you assume his comments were insincere? What objective evidence is there to support this assumption?
    And if his comments were, in fact, sincere, then how do they make him a “band wagon jumper” or lacking “courage to his convictions”?
    Just because you don’t agree with his comments, it doesn’t follow that he didn’t mean them.

  27. Rudd would be hailed in voterland as the new Man of Steel if he went to war against the Three Amigos, and Howard’s legacy of botched privatisation, by legislating to nationalise Telstra’s infrastructure, leaving the americans to run the retail business. What fun that would be.

  28. Loved this bit from the Morgan:

    Electors were asked: “If a Federal election for the House of Representatives were being held today — which party would receive your first preference?”

    Of all electors surveyed, 6.5% did not name a party.

    Do they ever decide?

  29. Dyno @ 173, yes the prosecution did not ask for a custodial sentence in the case, which is odd. While a judge is not compelled to take the sentencing advice offered by counsel, they do tend to do so. One other thing that interests me is that the judgment was handed down in October and the normal 28 day appeal period is passed. Why did the Qld Attorney-General not seek to appeal the case within the appeal period? As I say, we need to get the facts.

  30. It is not his place to comment on this issue, what he is going to do next comment on issues like what happens on Big Brother or Australian Idol like what Howard use to do. Leave the comments to court system.
    But Rudd trying to jump on the populist train has to say something. Did Rudd read the facts of the case or was he present in court, No.
    He may well be sincere and have some empathy in regards to it but he should have shut his mouth, simple.

  31. Crikey

    That % is not so differnt to teh don’t vote/informal number I suspect, so maybe its fair enough that they not be allocated.

  32. According to the ABC:

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/12/10/2114704.htm

    ‘Prime Minister Kevin Rudd says he is disgusted by the rape of the 10-year-old girl.

    He says he is waiting carefully for Mr Shine’s review of the case.

    “My attitude to violence towards women and children, including sexual violence towards women and children, is one of zero tolerance,” he said.

    “It always has been, it always will be and I await the further deliberations of the Queensland Attorney-General.”‘

    I see absolutely nothing reprehensible in such a reaction. And it doesn’t try to influence the review. So, what’s the problem?

    As far as our system of justice is concerned, it is recognised that judges and juries make mistakes; that’s what our appeals system is for. And if a guilty person should go free, I’m with Benjamin Franklin: “Better that 10 guilty men go free than one innocent man hang.”

  33. The PM will be commenting on lots of things – he can’t simply not have opinions and really, this is one way he can define who he is on a more personal level. To not have something to say would be silly – what is important is not to say too much or take it down to too much detail.

    He still needs to build a personal relationship with the public and letting them know his take on various things is the way the public will feel they know him and relate to him. This is the loyalty factor – people want to stick to the person they know they know.

  34. Right on, Harry ‘Snapper’ Organs 177.

    ‘Yes, a toxic amalgam there is to be addressed by the new government’.

    Grace Pettigrew. Do you read Possums Pollytics? I am pretty sure you do. Instructive. No marky marky types.

    A lot goes on there, as Snapper (pardon the familiar, Harry) refers to.

  35. narky marky, give it a rest. You’ve stated your views on Rudd more than once. You may be right, you may be wrong. Give Rudd a decent window of time to provide proof either way.

    To labour a point unduly is a turn off and provokes a hostile reaction.

    Ask Melb.City.

  36. Kirribilli Removals

    Well done!! I just saw your truck at work removing the squatter from Commonwealth property on Sydney’s north shore. Great work! That must have been a very satisfying day at the office. You made us all happy for a day 🙂

    Normally I’d say all removalists shoudl take care with their clients property but, in this case, I’d say treat your client’s property the way your client treated our democracy 🙁

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