Morgan: 58.5-41.5

Morgan, which ended its recent poor run at the federal level with a 53.5-46.5 result on the eve of the election, has produced the first post-election poll on voting intention. It shows Labor enjoying a honeymoon boost to 58.5-41.5, with a primary vote lead of 49 per cent to 36.5 per cent. Newspoll will presumably return to the fold in the new year.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,031 comments on “Morgan: 58.5-41.5”

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  1. If there is a by-election, nominations will be opened in the usual way. So if the Libs wanted to ditch Bailey and run someone else, they could. I very much doubt there will be a by-election. If the recount confirms Labor’s win, the Libs will probably decide to take their lumps. Despite the mixed precedents, I think they know they’d get creamed.

    If Labor does finish up winning the seat by 6 votes, that will be closest House of Reps result ever allowed to stand, beating 7 votes at Werriwa in 1914. (The two closer results, 5 votes in Riverina in 1903 and 1 vote in Ballaarat in 1919, were voided in court). In percentage terms Mitchell’s margin would be 50.00309, also the closest ever, beating 50.007 at the Griffith by-election of 1939.

  3. James J, It’ll depend an awful lot on the policy settings on a range of things as to whether higher prices for energy eventuates and the impact of price shifts on voting behaviour. I think that most of what I’ve read indicates the most people now “buy” climate change and that it is being adversely affected by human activity. If the Federal, and for that matter, the synergy now available between Federal and State/Territory level works reasonably well, there are solutions available that could actually bring energy prices down. And wouldn’t working families just love that?

  4. If the world is serious enough and does cure the planet from global warming, the only thing that I will regret is that sea levels will not rise sufficiently enough to put all those liberal voting coastline wentworth residents under water.

    With Australia being involved in talks with other nations on climate change, it makes Coconut seem even more out of touch now, if that was possible.

  6. Centre

    When we take our place at the table, we can and will become the world leaders on the issue and we will indeed lead by example.

  7. Kirribilli Removals took his/her own sweet time to turn up, but very satisfying that Hyacinth and the Prime Monster, who’s legacy shall be mud in the mouth of his folllowers, are now re-located out of the $17 billion waste of their occupancy.

  9. Although “in situ” may not quite be right given it refers to the original position… (though I like this definition: “Referring to a rock, fossil, or other object found in the exact location or natural position in which it was formed or deposited.”)

  10. 108. Harry’s right, tonight on the ABC news there was a nice shot of Kirribilli Removals at the wheel of his very fine van as his henchpersons loaded up. I think I saw someone tottering out of the stately mansion holding a white flag.

  11. Adam, It would seem that reality is still sinking in for the LNP, as for some of us. I thought that Fran Bailey was about to burst into tears this afternoon when I heard her interviewed. Then, there was that classic Lib. position of blaming someone/something/anything. Oh yes, it must be the AEC. Couldn’t be that I lost. I’m going to take much pleasure in identifying adjustment disorders with any number of complications over the next wee while among the hapless NLP. Normally, I’m a ‘noice’ person, brought up to abide by the old dictum of “win without bombast, and lose without rancour”. On this occasion, nah!

  12. ‘PM disgusted by …’ in today’s headlines was pure Howard. I despair that we’ll ever get back to politicians confining themselves to policy in their own domain, or at least things they know about, instead of moralising on every social issue a dull journalist throws their way.

    As odd as it is to see Rudd and Gillard at the helm, I don’t expect most people will notice the difference for some time.

    Paradoxically however, Howard was so impotent for the last a year or more, that it is also not easy to think of him as PM either.

  15. Yep, off to the old shack they have been transported, minus, of course, Hyacinth’s fingernails, which will be forever, embedded in the floorboards leading OUT.

  17. 112 Graeme the difference is Howard would have suggested the Federal Govt taking over responsibility for sentencing, or deciding to make Cape Yorke part of Nairu.

    The good thing is the ALP wedges will be on lefty stuff like Climate Change. Howard’s wedges were invaribly challenges to the ALP to be uncaring or downright mean. Rudd will wedge the Libs into being nice 🙂

  20. scaper 106

    we will be a world leader??? we have signed up for kyoto for 5 minutes, are among the world’s worst polluters and no set targets for 2020. we have a long long eway before we are involved, let alone being a leader. European countries and New Zealand are lading the charge. We are more like a rookie yet to play a game.

  22. Interesting to see Rudd “disgusted” by a lenient sentence in a rape case involving an aboriginal community in far north Qld. Expect to see much more of this positioning. Despite the many achievements of the Hawke/Keating era, and despite coming out the other side of a recession still in power, Keating was thrashed by Howard. Why? One reason was that he was a foul-mouthed arrogant pr@ck. The other was that he was seen by socially conservative working-class voters in the outer suburbs and regional cities as a guy that had an elitist agenda (aboriginal reconciliation, the republic) which either was irrelevant to their lives or which they were actively hostile to. Rudd will not fall into this trap. I certainly expect and hope we will indeed see progress on both aboriginal reconciliation and the republic in time, but Rudd will keep making statements like this to avoid the wedges on these kinds of issues I’m sure the Libs will still try running. It may be unpalatable to leftists on this site to see this stuff coming from Rudd, but it’s necessary.

  23. Par Mod,
    as a confirmed leftist let me say that so far
    I am impressed.
    Rudd has ratified Kyoto,(targets are another thing, but it’s a start), committed to a formal apology to Indigeneous Australians, promised to close down Nauru Torture Centre for Refugees, allowing tose that are already processed the decency of coming ashore and promising to speed up the process for those waiting.
    If he cans the pulp mill in Tassie and has a rethink on uranium mining, I’m going to nominate him as the next leader of the Greens.

  24. Dear Kevin,
    Love you to bits. I’m so delighted you’re the PM. I even appreciate your fondness for Dietrich Bonhoeffer. Just one thing….when a reporter throws a question at you about a crime you know nothing about…Shut Up! You’re the Prime Minister! You’re also an intelligent man. You don’t have to switch into red neck mode and rant about ‘zero tolerance’. It doesn’t matter how heinous the crime appears to be. Take your time; get the facts, and at least have the sense to read the case and the judge’s remarks before passing your own judgment….or you just look like a goose (actually Kevin, I’ve noticed your neck disappears entirely into your collar when you pontificate on matters you’re unfamilar with. It’s not a good look – so stop it! Anyway, enjoy Bali. You’ve made us all proud. Love & kisses…FG

  25. BTW-
    shouldn’t Rudd be disgusted by an Australian judge finding that a 10 year old could consent to sex with 9 men?
    I think most of us are – forget wedge politics.

  27. Also, as PM, Rudd has to comment on stuff all the time. Whether he’s involved or not.
    What if he’d said nothing about the case – it becomes “PM silent on rape of ten year old girl”, or whatever. His instincts in this matter, as so often, were spot on.

  28. FG,
    I think Rudd should comment on this case without knowing All The Facts as such. The outstanding fact is that 9 men raped a ten year old. What the f(k else is there to know?
    I am proud (remember that feeling?) that an Australian leader would condemn, without any legalistic BS, something so heinous.
    If only such respect for human rights had guided the government of the last 11 years.

  29. On the theme of Prime Ministerial comments more generally, one of the reasons it’s such a hard job is that PMs do get put on the spot all the time – Rudd’s minders would hardly have prepared him for that question, would they?

  31. The problem Jen is that legal cases are extremely complex things, and judges, by and large are not idiots. To pass comment based solely on what is reported in the press (which is often misleading or just plain wrong) is not wise. All I’m saying is get the facts – then pass comment. What I read in today’s press made me angry, but as a lawyer I’ve learned not to trust the spin from the press. It’s an odd judgment based on what the press has told us. I’m also curious as to why the Crown recommended the action taken by her honour. The Qld AG has sought a report from the DPP and, based on that, he will determine whether to appeal. I’ll be interested to read the judgment.

  32. Hello Jen. Great to hear that Rudd is keeping both his left-leaning and social conservatve followings happy! In the end, it’s the actions that matter, not the spin and images. And Howard’s trawling for votes by stirring hostility to various minorities was the most contemptible thing about him, thank God that’s gone. But I’m not sure which direction a re-think on uranium mining should take us. Global warming is probably the greatest problem our species (and all the others!) faces, and nuclear energy could be part of the solution. There are massive challenges with waste, cost, decommissioning old plants, potential use in weapons-but is it not true that it is an energy source which will emit very little carbon? Stuff like burying CO2 from coal underground is a fantasy, and from what I’ve read wind and solar can’t generate enough power to allow coal-fired stations to be closed. So where will the electricity come from?

  33. I’ve made a small number of posts here in the last 6 weeks but have generally been silently and compulsively lurking here and at Possum’s site. I’ve also sent William and Possum a few offline emails to which I’ve had the nicest responses.

    We made our first ever small corporate donations to Maxine, Mike Bailey in North Sydney, to Andrew Campbell in Menzies (who was a looooong shot to rid Australia of the pustulous boil Kevin Andrews) and to the ACT Greens Senate campaign. (We only won 1 in 4, but you need to take a stand.) We had a fabulous hand-written personalised response from Maxine (I bet some of you are jealous!) and two great conversations with Mike Bailey and Andrew Campbell.

    These are people I’d be privileged and happy to be in a room with.

    I wouldn’t want to be in the same room with misfits like Abbott, Abetz (Abbott doubled), Ruddock, Kevin Andrews, Bronwyn Bishop and similar and I sincerely hope they soon vanish up or down a plughole into the past.

    I’d like to thank and congratulate William and Possum for their extraordinary efforts. I love the way both these blokes think and write.

    I particularly commend both of them for their gut-driven stances against racist drivel.

    I’d also like to thank Adam and Antony Green for blogging as much as they did.

    My vote for best citizen blogger goes to “Kirribilli Removals” but there are a number of other contenders that saw the election from all sorts of perspectives including Basil Fawlty, Grace Pettigrew, Ruawake, Julie and many many others.

    I hope we don’t descend into wallowing about whether Possum got it wrong: Possum was the bloke who kept something like 60% of pollbludgers sane in the last few days of the campaign. Not only should he get a Nobel Prize via Adam (sorry, too lazy to link) but he should be given an award by the Australian Health Department!

    Thanks to all of you bludgers and particular thanks to William and Possum. I hope everyone in this particular part of the blogosphere doesn’t exhaust themselves in recriminations and claims to psephological superiority. We won, damn it, and none of us are actually very much the wiser why we did.

    Finally, a comment on the trolls: there was one manifestation/shift of Glen who was interesting and brave though he/she occasionally succumbed to racism. Most of the others I have the sort of contempt for that I have for Kevin Andrews. These include ESJ, “Generic Person” – whatever that idiot moniker means – and Stephen Kaye.

    Happy Christmas everyone! We’re rid of the rodent! Rejoice! These sorts of shifts will only happen a few times in your lifetime, so enjoy it.

  34. I don’t like that margin in McEwen. After the margin in Bass was 0.04% after the 1993 election, the AEC decided in future to publish all margins to two decimal places. (Just publishing the close ones to two didn’t seem to be to their liking) I hope that McEwen doesn’t encourage them to publish all margins to three decimal places.

  35. But Antony, you’re the most numerate soul in the country. If you can’t handle 3 decimal places what hope have the rest of us got? Are you still tipping that the Libs will want to avoid a by-election in McEwen.

  37. In the case of McEwen, .001 corresponds to a single vote. It’s a silly level of accuracy, as is 2dp which would be only 10 votes. As to tipping whether there will be a by-election, I’m just saying you shouldn’t assume there will be one. My political advice would be to let the result stand as my gut feeling is the government will have quite a honeymoon period. The Coalition will be having a few months of introspection, never a good time to engage in a by-election.

  40. Antony,

    Can you clarify whether, as most seem to assume, that the Libs have the option not to run Fran Bailey for their candidate in the event of a by-election?

  41. Agree with FG at 124. The PM should not join this hue and cry (Bolt’s blog has already gone predictably ballistic and its a very unpleasant read). Of course we are all horrified by child rape. We do not need the PM to tell us what we already know. He should rise above the emotional turmoil and counsel calm analysis and encourage legal resolution.

    Problem coming over the horizon if this “national outcry” is allowed to run wild is the character assassination and career destruction of the judge involved (see Bolt), not to mention the impossibility of a lasting resolution for the child and her community.

    The culture warriors at the Oz are right now hammering out their rage at our pomo relativist leftie judicial elite, providing acres of gruesome and prurient detail about child rape in aboriginal communities, and ensuring once again that real change is postponed while we deal with this present emergency. And it should shift quite a few newspapers for the next few days.

    Dyno at 127: “His instincts in this matter, as so often, were spot on.”

    I don’t agree, Dyno. It reminded me of Howard’s instincts.

  42. Plus the funds are a little low in the Liberal camp according to the word on the street. Might be better to keep them for future battles that are on the horizon which they can win (like Higgins). They don’t want to fight more by-elections then they have to at the moment.

  43. Jen

    Rudd is also holding COAG on 20th, 5 days before Xmas, first such meeting since Howard days to be held outside Canberra.

    All state, territory and federal leaders plus treasurers, main agenda to tackle health, education and housing.

    The bloke does not muck about and Australia is quite lucky in that most of the leaders and treasurers are reasonably competant as Rudd said the blame game stops and working to find solutions and fixes starts.

  44. Pip at 140: without wishing to gazump Antony’s response, it might be worth observing that the Court of Disputed Returns orders a “fresh” election, not a “by-election”. Its an interesting use of terminologys, suggesting that the whole pack of cards is thrown up into the air, and anyone can nominate.

  46. A new writ will be issued for a by-election and anyone who wants to run can nominate. And no one who previously nominated has to run. In other words, Fran Bailey doesn’t have to be the Liberal candidate.

  50. Listening to Radio National today, Samantha Maiden (I think) nominated Michael Ronaldson to “be the next John Faulkner” – i.e. during Senate estimates. Given I have only seen him play the role of Fierrevanti-Well’s wingman in her attack on the ABC and SBS, I shudder at the thought.

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