Morgan: 58.5-41.5

Morgan, which ended its recent poor run at the federal level with a 53.5-46.5 result on the eve of the election, has produced the first post-election poll on voting intention. It shows Labor enjoying a honeymoon boost to 58.5-41.5, with a primary vote lead of 49 per cent to 36.5 per cent. Newspoll will presumably return to the fold in the new year.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,031 comments on “Morgan: 58.5-41.5”

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  5. It’s incredible that in the face of a massive repudiation at the last election, some characters still persist in the ‘Reds under the bed’ rhetoric witht he ALP generally, and Gillard and particular.

    The current government is about as ‘socialist’ as the current opposition is ‘liberal’.

  12. I think someone else asked this question before.

    If there is a by election in a certain “Victorian Seat” 🙂

    Can the Libs-Nats preselect a different candidate? I mean dear Fran is 61. Surely not generational change.

  13. “Why have Gillard when we can have Julie Bishop if we wanted a woman as our leader!”

    Admittedly, Bishop does a great Marty Feldman impersonation, but Gillard offers more substance.

  14. What no commentary on soft-Labor voters and the key to the next election?

    Morgan has reinvented itself to suit itself once again.

  15. Interesting that Kevin Rudd was Wayne Goss’ Chief of Staff and Juila Gillard was John Brumby’s Chief of Staff.

    Maybe we should look to see who is CoS for whoever claims to lead the Qld Libs and the Vic real estate guy for future Liberal leaders. 🙂

  17. Glen says:

    “Why have Gillard when we can have Julie Bishop”

    Julia is better value. Ms Bishop is very good at delivering prepared lines but generally poor at thinking on her feet. Her debating tends to be very wooden (and a little spooky).

  18. With Rudd only 50, I can;t see anyone in the ALP taking over from him who is older. So that would rule out (from the Cabinet):
    Swan (53)
    Smith (51)
    Tanner (51)
    Macklin (52)
    Carr (52)
    Ferguson (53)

    Of the these only Smith I think is any real chance (Tanner will join the list of wannabe Treasurer with Julia)

    Of the under 50s we have:
    Julia (46)
    Burke (38)
    Fitzgibbon (49)
    Roxon (40)
    Albanese (44)
    McLelland (49)

    Albanese, McL and Fitz are no chance. Burke I think is the smokey.

    The outer Ministry has a heap of under 50s (and given Kate Ellis broke PJKs record for youngest Minister….)

    And of course the parl secs…
    Combet (49)
    Shorten (40)

  19. Wooden like Gillard’s tone of voice?
    I hardly think Julie’s debating skills are questionable considering she is a lawyer.

    When’s the last time Julia has had to think on her feet?

    Also when is the ALP Junket going to Bali? Are they there yet? Is Greg Hunt going too?

  22. Juila Gillard is at best 50-50 to become prime minister after Rudd. I dont think the Labor right would be pleased and the socialist left is not guaranted to support her either. In my opinion Swan, Smith and Roxxon are just as likley to suceed him as julia.

  23. Glen you forget Gillard is also a lawyer.

    “In 1986, she graduated from the University of Melbourne with arts and law degrees and, the following year, joined the law firm Slater & Gordon at Werribee, working in the area of industrial law. In 1990, she was admitted as one of their first women partners.”

    If Kevin was hit by a bus – Gillard would be elected PM un-opposed.

  24. Gillard is clearly the heir apparent at present. Whether she can maintain that position for the nine years or so that Rudd will stay in the job if he keeps getting re-elected remains to be seen.

  27. Glen @ 27:
    Looks like Bali is going to be a flop HURRAY!

    Glen, I don’t know what you’re cheering about, nor do I know where you’re getting your information from. All that’s happened, as far as I can see, is that the parties are moving into what will become their negotiating positions, with Rudd refusing to make firm commitments off the top of his head. Would you be happier if he had?

    Also, given that Bush has so little effective time to go as leader in the US, the next round of negotiations will be different. The Japanese leadership is looking dodgy as well, so I wouldn’t be celebrating too loudly just yet.

    Besides, I find it disturbing to think that you’d see the entire exercise in partisan political terms, esp given that a significant element of the Libs wd have been there if the WA MPs (such paragons of enlightenment as they are!) hadn’t jacked up and elected Horatio.

  29. Greg Hunt will waffle about tree clearing – Visit some Kuta shops, get lots of T-shirts and DVDs.

    Get his hair braided and fingernails painted. He may even get a taste for Bintang. 🙂

  35. Is anyone else still finding it hard to realise that when you see a headline such as “PM disguted by..” or “PM refuses to be drawn…” that it is not about Howard?

    I still find my first reaction when I see a headline with “PM…” is to wonder what issue is Howard trying to wedge the ALP on now.

  36. You’re not the only one, Grog. Not that I mind. Each time I realise that the Prime Minister is Rudd, not Howard, it brings another smile to my face. 🙂

  37. Reminds me of the anecdote of when Bracks was first elected in 1999. The radio reported that their was a leadership crisis and the Victorian Opposition was in disarray. Brumby rushed into Bracks office with the opening line of “What’s going on, Steve?”, and then stopped in his tracks and started laughing as he realised that the reports were talking about the Liberals.

    You’ll get used to it!..

  38. Grog

    Yep, I have the same reaction when I listen to the news and they say the Prime Minister, tense up, then they say Kevin Rudd, breathe out relax, give a little smile.

    Still taking a while to sink in.

  39. GG

    I think Glen is suffering from “What’s going on Steve” when he hears reports about the opposition in disunity he then follows up a post on how it is falling apart for Rudd!

  40. William nuke 87.

    I am still getting used to PM Rudd, if it takes a while for it to sink into my rusted on Labor mind – imagine the pain for the opposition? 😛

  41. Absolutely guys. I am always going to refer to Rudd as the P.M. or PM Rudd from now on.

    What about when Australia win in sport. It’s going to make us more proud now, especially given that their wont be a dessicated coconut around where he is not wanted.

  42. Yes, Centre, I absolutely loathed having Howard on stage at the NRL Grand Final; it took a bit of the shine out of Melbourne Storm winning the 2007 NRL Premiership.

  44. Rudd being PM still hasn’t sunk in with me yet. I’ve got the same feeling as when I had to study for ages to pass an exam. Even after passing, I kept waking up worrying about what I was going study that day. It’s like having Damocles’ sword taken away from hovering over your head. The Rodent really has scarred me.

  46. Grog & Charlie, It’s a common reaction around here as well. Initial arc up, then grin like crazy. I’ve taken to saying to all similarly afflicted, “Who’s the PM?” every so often just for the entertainment value!
    What the hell’s the story with Morgan? They’re just making it up! Do they enjoy being a laughing stock?

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