Morgan: 58.5-41.5

Morgan, which ended its recent poor run at the federal level with a 53.5-46.5 result on the eve of the election, has produced the first post-election poll on voting intention. It shows Labor enjoying a honeymoon boost to 58.5-41.5, with a primary vote lead of 49 per cent to 36.5 per cent. Newspoll will presumably return to the fold in the new year.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,031 comments on “Morgan: 58.5-41.5”

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  1. Looks like a bad time for the Libs to call for a new election in McEwen. It’d be Lindsay ’96 all over again, I reckon. The ALP could run the argument that the Libs are sore losers (and they’d be right).

    There’s sure to be some by-elections coming up – Higgins, Mayo, maybe Lyne and Berowra. The ALP doesn’t really have prayer in any of them (even with the pared-down margin in Mayo + the ‘honeymoon’ factor), but Lyne could be interesting… it may switch from safe Nat to safe Lib. Any thoughts?

  2. When Jeff Kennett resigned his very safe seat of Burwood after being beaten, the ALP won. In fact they won all the bi elections that came along after Kennett was beaten.

  3. McEwen situation:

    Bailey should just swallow her pride. On the bright side, in 2010, the new Liberal candidate won’t have much ground to make up.

  4. In a by-election in the early months of a new government there is almost no such thing as an unwinnable seat. After Labor took office in Victoria in 1999, not only did they win Burwood (6.8%), a seat which they still hold, but they also won Benalla (on 7.4%, which was thought at the time to be an aberration – a bit like Groom or Barker this time). They lost Benalla later – narrowly in 2002, easily in 2006 (where the possibly soon-to-be member for McEwen, Rob Mitchell, was on the wrong end of a 15.5% swing largely attributable to local water issues).

    Whilst talking of Morgan, I happened to be reading ‘The Great Labor Schism’ (a collection of papers on the 1955 split and its consequences) over the weekend, which included a chapter on the Morgan poll – the only show in town in those days – during and after the split, and how it handled the rise of what became the DLP. This showed that there is nothing new in fanciful interpretations by Morgan of small statistically-insignificant fluctuations in their polls – they’ve been doing it for at least 50 years.

  5. Great result for Horatio Hornet – I wonder how long his honeymoon will last? 🙂

    (Of course Morgan get the Nats vote wrong again 😛 )

  6. 8 – All the Liberal campaign has to do is find 4 people who voted Labor and convince them to change. The easiest campaign in history 🙂

    In regard to MeEwan, can someone tell me if it is now by-election or nothing ?. Or can the Libs still be declared the winner ?

  7. With regard to that “Victorian Seat” I think it is either a Labor win or a by election. The AEC seem confident the count will not change. (Be it 7,5 or now 6).

  8. Repeating from the Bee’s Donger:

    Notes on the closest election for a H of R seat – Ballaarat in 1919. Edwin Kerby (Nationalist) defeated Charles McGrath (ALP) by one vote. Both were WWI veterans, RSL activists and prominent local sportsmen. The election was declared void in 1920 and McGrath won the special election that year with a primary vote of 51.75% to Kerby’s 39.32 (there were a couple of independents). Maybe Fran Bailey should heed that.

    Apart from that hiccup, McGrath was MHR for Ballaarat (in more recent times spelled Ballarat) from 1913-34. He represented the ALP until 1931, when he switched to the United Australia Party. He died in office, aged 60.

  9. What about Rob Oakeshott making a move into federal politics? He’d thrash whoever the Coalition put up in Lyne.

    Agree with Handshin in Mayo.

  10. I thought Oakeshott was regarded as a de-facto Liberal by many in the NSW Nats (?)

    If the Liberals are smart they’ll try to grab him as their candidate for Lyne (by-election or 2010- surely Vaile won’t hang around). Nats are dying a not-so-slow death on the coast…

  11. Yes, the seachangers are really sticking it to the Nats. On election night Antony Green noted how far the Nat vote had fallen even in central Qld. Sooner or later the Nats will be confined to the inland seats.

  12. Chris B is wrong as Morgan gets it’s call registry from the ABC membership files and regularly scours Newtown, Brunswick and New Farm and the like for Unionists and Trotskyites to ask questions.

    Data on morgan poll respondents suggests that 80% have dreadlocks.

  13. Hi everyone,

    I’ve open-sourced my senate calculator, Cassandra. It’s in python and if you’re a software-programming-type person you might find it of use. Obviously it was written for the Australian senate but it can be used for many proportional representation, preferential voting scenarios.

    It’s here

  14. From the Age, appropriately in the Entertainment section. Ovaries tipped officially to become a colour writer.

    “Changing seats
    NO, NO, no. The Oz’s friendly reporter Caroline Overington did nothing wrong in flirting with the candidate for Wentworth, George Newhouse. She did nothing wrong in giving him a “closed whack” to the head (his version) or an “open-handed push” (her version) on poll day. The Walkley Award-winning journo is such a shining light in Rupert’s empire that the paper later apologised to George. Now word from insiders at The Oz is that Overington will no longer be writing cracking news stories for the paper but moved to a role on the weekend magazine. They say it’s the cushiest form of purgatory around.”

  15. Sure CO displayed some very poor judgement around some issues in the recent election, but to my mind she has a significant credit balance built up through her work exposing the AWB farce and the role Downer, Vaile and Howard played in it. Give the kid a break, just as we wish that the other side would give Cornesey a break.

  16. Insanity was election night jasmine.

    Looks like Bali is going to be a flop HURRAY! 🙂

    So Jasmine how was the ‘victory party’ in Stirling LOL?

  17. It seems that Morgan have come up with a new way to make whatever findings they wish:

    “The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating (GCR) is 144.5. The GCR is 100 plus the difference between the percentage of Australians who say the country is “going in the right direction” and the percentage who say the country is “going in seriously the wrong direction”.”

    Doesn’t sound like a particularly quantitative measure of anything at all, to me.

  18. Nelson is clearly more popular than Howard was

    today Morgan Labor 58.5 -41.5

    apec conference Morgan Labor 58 – 41

    Nelson is coming

  19. Long range future prediction for the labor party – P.M. Rudd to win three elections (with a substantially increased majority in his second) before handing over to Australia’s first ever female P.M. Julia Gillard after serving longer than Hawke.

    Long range future prediction for the liberal party and their supporters – PAIN and more PAIN! lol

  20. Centre Gillard will never become PM, because she is unelectable just as much if not more than Tony Abbott. The ALP aren’t that stupid they wouldn’t implode in such a manner as to put Ms Gillard in as leader.

  21. We note that even William can not comment on Morgans’ “GCR” rating measurement

    What Morgan is saying is he asked voters if we were going in the right direction

    72.25% said YES…27.75% including glen said NO
    (72.25%-27.75% = a difference of 44.50% + 100% = Morgan’s GCR of 144.50%

    Morgan’s new Polling concept should leave all speechless in our admiration

  22. Glen, your side of politics persisted in its belief that Gillard was an electoral negative for Labor all year. They were persistently wrong.

  23. Glen, Julia is so popular!

    What about on election night, when Kerry asked her a question the crowd wouldn’t let her speak. Julia Julia Julia Julia Julia. Great stuff!

  24. I wouldn’t be so quick with such a call, Glen. I remember much talk of the ALP being unelectable with Jules as deputy. She is the woman who had driven their agenda for the last 18 months, and holds two of the most influential portfolios in the new government. Also (on a technicality) she’ll be your PM next week. 🙂

  25. Glen, I can only think of one politician who may be less electable than Tony Abbot and that is Kevin Andrews. Honestly, the guy is electoral poison.

    I think Gillard is a polarising figure, which isn’t a safe bet as leader, but sometimes you need to be a bit risky. That time is not now, nor is it likely to be any time soon.

  26. I know Glen doesn’t like to consider evidence, but Gillard’s public approval rating has always been quite high. It will be internal ALP factors that stop her succeeding Kev.

  27. Back again folks, after a spell in Hospital, including Nov 24. A disappointing result in Gippsland, but the possibility is that Mcgauran could be one of the early departures. Local Nats are sh*t scared a Lib would stand, and split the conservative vote. Ah well, I always was a dreamer.

  28. 36
    Centre – they were rent-a-crowd Labor left members i doubt if you took Julia onto the Streets of Melbourne people would just start shouting JULIA JULIA JULIA, its bull butter and you know it. Her unpopularity was masked by Rudd’s popularity.

    Charlie, if Gillard was the ALP leader for the 2007 election, ‘Unca Howie’ would still be PM and you know it.

    Ron, IMHO Maxine is more electable than Julia.

    Gillard is a left wing socialist who could never get her grubby hands on Treasury as she doesnt have the numbers for a fight with the ALP Right.

    Of course Andrews is poison LTEP, i sincerely hope he resigns at some stage so we can get some new talent into the ranks.

  29. I think it will be interesting to see if and how Watkins takes over in NSW. The only thing stopping him from taking over appears to be the knuckleheads of the NSW machine. If he is given an out from the left and the top job, then Julia will have a precedent, and there will be no reason why she couldn’t be PM one day.

  30. On Julia becoming PM. Why is it that Australia, US and UK have never had a female PM or deputy (until Julia, I’m not counting Thatcher!) when we are meant to be progressive and non-sexist, while Pakistan and India have both had female PM’s and are “paternalistic and chauvinistic”? We are clearly not a meritocracy. Just look at all the white, Christian males in power. Julia might struggle despite being the best person.

  31. 34
    Ron Says:
    December 10th, 2007 at 4:43 pm
    “”e note that even William can not comment on Morgans’ “GCR” rating measurement

    What Morgan is saying is he asked voters if we were going in the right direction

    72.25% said YES…27.75% including glen said NO
    (72.25%-27.75% = a difference of 44.50% + 100% = Morgan’s GCR of 144.50%

    Morgan’s new Polling concept should leave all speechless in our admiration”

    I, for one, am at a loss for words

  32. “What about on election night, when Kerry asked her a question the crowd wouldn’t let her speak. Julia Julia Julia Julia Julia. Great stuff!”

    It was a terrific night for girl power Centre. Took my daughters along, as well as going mad over Julia crowd also went wild when Maxine appeared on the monitor.

    Tanya was also great to see on the night, big contract to Joe who was in tears when the cameras were not on him.

    Don’t see why Aust can’t have a female PM, NZ does.

  33. Adam should pass by soon to tut disapprovingly at wild speculation about events far in the future, but I suspect that unless KEv falls under a bus soon, it will be a person who entered parliament at this election that succeeds him as ALP leader.

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