LIVE ELECTION BLOGGING. Entries should be added at every minute or two. You will need to hit “refresh” to see new entries.
12.10am. ABC computer had Swan as Liberal gain earlier tonight, but it’s tightened.
11.54pm. Forgot about Paterson: turned out a narrow Liberal win.
11.46pm. Macarthur’s 58-year reign as a bellwether is now over. It is now officially Eden-Monaro.
11.37pm. 5.2 per cent in Victoria could have yielded Labor nothing, so they should be pleased with Deakin and Corangamite.
11.36pm. ACT: with no Senate boilover, a boring result.
11.36pm. Swing to Liberal in Franklin a measure of Harry Quick’s popularity. I figured the Libs were in trouble when Nick Minchin started tooking it up.
11.35pm. Bass closer than expected, but Labor. Contrary to expectations, Braddon was an easier win for Labor.
11.34pm. Okay, live blogging of ABC call of the board.
11.29pm. I exaggerated about the Coalition blocking majority. The clear loss of SA and Tasmanian Senate seats will leave them one short. But if they take the final seat from the Greens in Victoria, they’ll be able to do it if they can woo Steve Fielding or Nick Xenophon, and will have an absolute majority in both. A long-winded way of saying the Greens most likely will not have the balance of power.
11.28pm. Not much doubt about 3 LIB, 2 ALP and 1 GRN in Western Australia.
11.27pm. Straightforward Tasmanian Senate result: 3 ALP, 2 LIB, 1 GRN.
11.24pm. Greens firming in SA Senate. Looks like 2 ALP, 2 LIB, 1 XEN and 1 GRN.
11.21pm. Greens falling behind in Victorian Senate. Looking more like Labor 3, Coalition 3. That leaves the Coalition with a blocking majority.
11.18pm. No surprises lurking in the NSW Senate count. A clear 3-3 for the majors, with Kerry Nettle losing her seat.
10.56pm. Straightforward contest between Labor and Greens for last Queensland seat, with Labor ahead. Most likely LNP 3, ALP 3; but possible LNP 3, ALP 2, GRN 1.
10.55pm. Pauline Hanson gets enough votes for public funding.
10.50pm. Libs home in Cowan.
10.47pm. Howard pretty much concedes Bennelong. And here I was buying Nick Minchin’s line about postal votes.
10.40pm. Still early Senate figures from Queensland point to a very tight race for the last seat between Labor and the Greens, with the Coalition clear on three. It is worth dwelling on the significance of the Coalition’s performance in the Senate: they will very likely win more seats than Labor, and will have a blocking majority when combined with Family First. There’s a good chance we’ll get a double dissolution during the coming term, if Labor has reason to feel bold.
10.26pm. Taking a step back, I believe we have a strong Senate result for the Coalition, who will only drop seats in South Australia and Tasmania.
10.23pm. Liberal ACT Senate vote fading a little, but not quite enough to trouble them.
10.21pm. Labor pulling further ahead in Hasluck, not going to win Stirling, probably gone in Swan, not quite dead yet in Cowan.
10.19pm. Lineball in Bowman. The Liberals might lose Mal Brough, and keep Andrew Laming. Great.
10.12pm. Big Liberal win in Swan, actually – over half counted, 0.1 per cent margin, 2.1 per cent swing.
10.12pm. ABC calls Swan for the Liberals.
10.10pm. ABC not yet calling Stirling for Liberal, but they probably should be: with over 50 per cent counted, the Liberals lead by 1.2 per cent. Slow count in Hasluck, but still lineball.
10.01pm. Another big loser from the evening: the tally room. Don’t think we’ll be seeing it again.
9.59pm. Greens Senate position in SA improving. They’re struggling to stay ahead of Labor at the second last exclusion. If they stay there they’ll get up on Labor prefs. Otherwise it will be ALP 3, LIB 2, XEN 1
9.55pm. Labor with a narrow lead in Solomon after half the vote counted.
9.54pm. Big Labor win in Flynn also: 10.7 per cent swing, 3.0 per cent margin.
9.53pm. Double-digit swings: Barker, Blair, Calwell, Dawson, Flynn, Forde, Groom, Holt, Leichhardt, Longman, Macarthur (yet not quite enough) and Petrie. Mal Brough conceding in Longman.
9.49pm. Raw AEC figures from Hasluck have Labor 1.25 per cent ahead from 31.6 per cent, ABC has it lineball from 12.6 per cent.
9.45pm. Labor behind in Swan and likely to lose Cowan, but likely to win Hasluck. Liberals looking good in Stirling.
9.43pm. Not much doubt about 3 ALP, 2 LIB, 1 GRN in Tasmania.
9.41pm. Three seats for Coalition in Victoria, two for Labor, close fight for final seat between Labor and Greens with Greens in front.
9.40pm. Not looking good for Kerry Nettle. Likely NSW Senate result 3 ALP, 3 LNP.
9.38pm. Senate result currently pointing to 2 LIB, 2 ALP and Xenophon, with a very close battle between the Liberals and Greens for the last seat.
9.33pm. Twenty-three Labor gains now from ABC, but the Liberals have probably gained Cowan and are ahead in Swan.
9.32pm. ABC computer now calls Flynn for Labor.
9.30pm. Liberals keeping their noses in front in Sturt.
9.29pm. Stirling count into the teens, Liberal ahead but it’s not over yet. Lineball in Hasluck and Swan. Liberals look likely to gain Cowan.
9.26pm. Scratch that on ACT Senate, I’m now told otherwise. Liberal member Gary Humphries to hold.
9.24pm. Close race for ACT Senate.
9.21pm. Labor ahead in Bowman now.
9.18pm. ABC calls Petrie for Labor, meaning big money for me from PortlandBet.
9.17pm. Smith not sounding at all confident about any of the four Perth marginals.
9.16pm. Not looking good for Labor in Stirling, too early to say in Hasluck. Stirling would have more new development/urban infill than Hasluck.
9.14pm. Quite well ahead, actually.
9.13pm. But Labor now ahead in Petrie.
9.12pm. ABC downgrades Dickson to ALP ahead.
9.10pm. I’m told that early indications for the Senate suggest 3 ALP, 3 LNP in NSW, so Kerry Nettle in trouble, and 3 LIB, 2 ALP, 1 GRN in Victoria.
9.09pm. WA no quicker at counting votes than Queensland. Perhaps it’s the heat.
9.06pm. Big result – ABC calls Forde for Labor. Very little of the vote counted though, as far as teh ABC website is concerned.
9.04pm. Labor probably enough ahead in Bennelong that they’re the favourite. Very tight in Petrie.
9.02pm. CLP 0.8 per cent ahead in Solomon with 15.1 per cent counted.
9.01pm. ABC calls for Dickson for Labor, too early I’d suggest: 0.2 per cent ahead, 14.5 per cent counted.
8.56pm. Very impressive Labor win in Leichhardt.
8.55pm. Very first results coming in from WA.
8.53pm. The ABC is explicitly calling 20 seats for Labor, but might be wrong about Bennelong and perhaps one other. The Coalition can still desperately hope for a scenario where everything else goes right and they can win Solomon, Cowan and Swan.
8.52pm. Labor now back ahead in back-and-forth battle for Flynn.
8.50pm. Narrow early CLP lead in Solomon. Labor out of trouble now in Lingiari.
8.50pm. Early, but looking very close in Forde.
8.46pm. ABC’s calls for Labor in Queensland: Blair, Bonner, Dawson, Leichhardt, Longman, Moreton. No significant figures from Herbert. Kerry O’Brien saying Dickson “in trouble”. Interesting early swing to CLP in Lingiari.
8.42pm. ABC calls Blair and Leichhardt for Labor and gives them back Bennelong.
8.40pm. Nationals have pulled ahead in Flynn.
8.34pm. Line-ball in Sturt, but the Liberals should get up in Boothby.
8.32pm. Labor 1.0 per cent ahead in Blair with 14.3 per cent. Still slow count in Queensland.
8.31pm. Ryan not living up to the hype on early figures.
8.30pm. Still lineball in Robertson.
8.29pm. Labor pulls slightly further ahead in Bennelong, but it will be very tight.
8.28pm. Julia Gillard calls it. ABC computer ticks over to 76 for Labor at that very moment.
8.26pm. Count finally building up in Bonner and Moreton, Labor swings of 7.2 per cent and 4.1 per cent.
8.26pm. Nationals looking good in Hinkler – not a huge surprise.
8.24pm. Big swing to Labor in Capricornia – unnecessary for them, but enforces the picture in Flynn and Dawson. Still nothing credible from Leichhardt.
8.23pm. Many crucial seats in Queensland counting agonisingly slowly.
8.19pm. ABC computer calls Bass for Labor.
8.18pm. Labor also hold narrow early lead in Flynn.
8.18pm. Very big early Labor swing in Longman.
8.14pm. Haven’t mentioned Sturt yet: lineball with a third of the vote counted.
8.13pm. ABC computer calls Wentworth for Turnbull.
8.13pm. Kingston now a Labor gain on ABC.
8.10pm. Early 4.0 per cent swing gives Labor a slight early lead in Moreton.
8.09pm. Very early 10.1 per cent swing to Labor in Leichhardt, 0.2 per cent short of the required swing.
8.07pm. Bob Hawke has called the election for Labor, just as he memorably did in 1993.
8.06pm. Big gain for Labor, according to the ABC: Dawson.
8.05pm. ABC has Macarthur as Liberal retain.
8.03pm. Bonner called for Labor, as expected.
8.02pm. Maddeningly slow count in most important Queensland seats.
8.01pm. Bennelong lead continues to narrow. Now line-ball.
8.01pm. Nick Minchin makes well-made but probably exaggerated point about postal votes in Bennelong.
7.59pm. Big early swing to Labor in Blair.
7.57pm. Finally, intelligence from Queensland. Dawson looking very interesting.
7.57pm. Only a slight early swing to Labor in Kingston, but enough for them to win if they maintain it.
7.56pm. Labor lead narrowing Bennelong.
7.55pm. Line-ball in Robertson. Labor back ahead in Bass.
7.50pm. Very slow count so far in Queensland.
7.49pm. Most of the booth vote counted in Bass, and it won’t be decided tonight.
7.45pm. Dobell down for Labor from ABC.
7.42pm. Not looking good for Labor in Boothby.
7.38pm. Sounds like the entire Poll Bludger readership is at the tally room. ABC computer still says “in doubt” in Bennelong, but surely Howard is gone.
7.40pm. Liberals back ahead in Bass.
7.38pm. Nine seats called for Labor by ABC computer so far.
7.37pm. ABC computer calls Eden-Monaro for Labor.
7.36pm. NEWS FLASH: ABC computer calls Bennelong for Labor.
7.35pm. Labor catching up but still behind in Cowper.
7.33pm. Labor now ahead in Bass.
7.32pm. Liberals doing very well in La Trobe and McMillan – areas which also went against Labor at the state election.
7.30pm. No big surprise here, but ABC computer gives Lindsay and Parramatta to Labor.
7.30pm. Couple of outer Sydney seats Liberals were getting excited about aren’t coming in: Hughes and Greenway, anyhow.
7.29pm. Deakin back to Labor gain.
7.28pm. More figures in from Bennelong and Labor lead still holding.
7.28pm. Early results in Sturt suggest it’s tight. Ditto Boothby, but they’re slightly behind.
7.27pm. Still only 6.3 per cent, Labor looking very good in Bennelong.
7.26pm. Very first figures from Queensland coming in.
7.25pm. Labor ahead in Eden-Monaro, but only just.
7.24pm. ALP computer has demoted Deakin from ALP gain to ALP ahead.
7.24pm. Labor now ahead in Robertson.
7.23pm. Have I said ABC computer calls Page for Labor?
7.22pm. Labor slowly catching up in Bass.
7.20pm. Big Labor swings being wasted in seats they already hold.
7.19pm. Early big swing in Lyne has moderated below 5 per cent.
7.18pm. Malcolm Turnbull looking good on the early Wentworth count.
7.17pm. Labor also falling just short in Robertson and Paterson. Let’s just say it will be interesting to see results from Queensland.
7.17pm. Liberals holding on in McMillan.
7.16pm. Swing in Macarthur also falling short at this stage.
7.16pm. No Labor coup in Hughes, by the look of it.
7.15pm. Nationals just slightly ahead in Cowper, but nothing in it. Lower than expected swing to Labor in Dobell.
7.14pm. ABC calls Braddon as Labor gain.
7.09pm. ABC computer calls Deakin for Labor.
7.09pm. ABC computer calls Page for Labor, Gippsland for Nationals.
7.07pm. Liberals pull further ahead in Bass. 10.5 per cent counted. Still close.
7.07pm. Labor swing perhaps picking up a little in Melbourne suburbs.
7.06pm. Corangamite a Labor gain, according to ABC computer.
7.04pm. Paterson count now in double digits, and Labor will need to do a bit better here.
7.04pm. Said McMillan then and meant McEwen. Corrected. Actually a small Liberal swing in McMillan.
7.02pm. Labor just ahead in Corangamite and McEwen, with almost significant number counted. Not looking like it will all be over before Queensland though.
7.01pm. Swing in Bennelong moderating – below 5 per cent now.
7.00pm. Still no sign of a big swing to Labor in Tasmania; they are slightly ahead in Braddon and slightly behind in Bass.
6.59pm. Double digit swing in Page holding up with 5.1 per cent counted.
6.57pm. Early 12.4 per cent swing to Labor in Macarthur.
6.57pm. Swings everywhere in New South Wales, but Tasmania looking a bit sticky.
6.56pm. Bass count starting to build up to almost interesting level of 6 per cent, and Labor swing surprisingly mild. Probably not from Launceston though.
6.55pm. Corangamite swing to Labor sticking at 6-7 per cent, 3.9 per cent counted.
6.48pm. Big early swing in Gilmore, as you all saw. I had a vague feeling about this one. But yeah, still too early to say.
6.46pm. The very early swing in Flinders caught my eye, but the next booth dampened it down. Still too few to mean anything though.
6.46pm. Tally room over-reaction to 0.2 per cent of the booth in Bennelong.
6.45pm. 15 per cent Labor swing in Page from 1.2 per cent counted.
6.45pm. Dean Jaensch observes 90 per cent of booths swings so far are to Labor.
6.44pm. All very small figures, but all seats with results from Victoria show very mild swings to Labor.
6.40pm. Also a big swing to Labor in Lyne – not enough to win, but significant to the Central Coast and North Coast generally. Throw Page and Cowper on that to-watch list.
6.37pm. Antony reckons he spots an 8 per cent swing on the Central Coast. We’ll be hearing a lot more about Dobell, Robertson and Paterson.
6.36pm. Less than 1 per cent counted in McMillan, only 1 per cent swing to Labor.
6.35pm. Overall swing to Labor of 1.2 per cent to Labor in Tasmania, but these are all small rural booths.
6.35pm. Five booths in from Braddon, only 1 per cent, but 4 per cent swing to Labor. These are the rural parts of the electorate.
6.33pm. Early 8.3 per cent swing to Labor in Robertson.
6.32pm. Antony Green says a 5.9 per cent swing to Labor in Eden-Monaro, regardless of what current figures say.
6.31pm. 6.6 per cent swing to Labor in Braddon from 488 votes.
6.20pm. First figures from rural New South Wales dribbling in. Slowly getting act together. Stay tuned.
I was sort of right to not have too much faith in the bookies. Yes they had Labor winning BUT they had John Howard holding onto Bennelong. I thought he would, damn if I knew that I would have put money on Maxine McKew.
One last thing in the beginning the ABC’s seat count had Labor way behind the Coalition. I was shitting myself, but then I went to Sky News and Labor well ahead. After awhile the ABC got their act together had fixed the seats won banner. Phew, I was scared for a moment.
Now here’s my big question – the Senate? Who will hold the majority from July 1, 2008? Not the Coalition again please.
Well done William Bowe – a great effort.
Thank you.
What will Dennis Shanahan write in his next column?
Ash – was your pe#is last hard when you were 17?
Mind you, I shouldn’t joke – last itme ALPwon from opposition I was 13, so there’s not much difference!!!
Anyways, cheers to Glen, ESJ & S Kaye who fronted & put their positions as a significant minority (like their supporters are a significant minority in Australia right now) but who had a go. Fair play to you.
Thanks William, and thanls to Possum as well for his site.
You all da bomb and I’m reall t hammered now.
Rock on.
The stress is over…phewww… can relax for a few years now and enjoy FOI releases from the past 10 years to The Australian to keep us entertained.
well. BetFair still offers bet on Bennelong
McKew 1.1 / Howard 3.8
TPP Results so far:
Liberal/National Coalition TPP= 4,602,306votes or 46.76% Swing -5.50%
Australian Labor Party TPP= 5,240,615 or 53.24% Swing +5.50%
It’s funny how yesterday and early today everyone was stressing but in the end it all came good. It’s almost hard to believe.
Just goes to show that it can’t rain all the time. Feels like the country has got its soul back, and that’s a mighty good feeling.
Thanks paul k.
Steven Kaye at 690 said:
“all those polls throughout the year that had Labor in the high 40s or low 50s were absolute rubbish.”
That’s not a very nice thing to say about Crosby Textor, they had the ALP at that for most of the year.
Phew. Well thanks one and all – and especially William B. Great effort. lol
I’ve been going over some of the posts fom yesterday trying to find one by someonewho suggested the Libs would barely have a swing against it in QLD. lol
As I’ve always said, compared to Latham Rudd was going to kill in QLD. But geez.
Anyhoo, good night one and all.
Well done Morgan.
ALP 44% primary – hard to believe some panicked when a newspoll a couple weeks ago had it at 47%!
Interstingly all the loss of vote was from the Libs. The Nat’s essentially stayed at 5% And FF got 1.93% (a bit less than Galaxy’s 2.5%).
Enjoy the papers tomorrow.
ciao
kina
No time to relax, it’s time to get pro-active and meet the challenges that face us.
We have been given the opportunity now to facilitate a long term plan.
Got to seize the opportunity.
Just got home. Drunk as all hell, have been at the work Christmas Party. But HELL YES. The moment that we have all been predicting for the last 9 months seems to have come true. Goooooo PM Rudd, hope he rises to the occasion. Does anyone know where to find senate results? Link appreciated as am barely able to operate a keyboard at this stage.
Thank you William, I have appreciated the opportunity you have provided to participate in this blog and to all participants I enjoy your contributions,
Just having a look at Newspoll this year – in 21 separate polls they had the ALP’s primary vote at 47% or higher, and in 6 of them it was at or above 50%! How could anyone have actually believed that to be possible?
So did you Possum or should I say Mr Goldstein/Mr MacPherson.
Yup, i cried.
For the last 11 years i have consoled myself with the basic truth that some fights must be had. Even if you suspect or know you will lose, you must still fight, simply to keep the cause alive. Humiliation, hard as it is, means nothing. Keep fighting if its what you believe in. Because days like today happen as well.
To Glen; although i think you are an immature fascist manipulator of appendages (yup this is a 1/2 of Jameson’s speaking), if you really believe, stick with it. Apart from giving me someone to beat up on online for the next decade, we need difference in politics, or we are really doomed as a society. I have been where you are probably at now, and i wouldn’t wish it on anyone.
Advice: Drink more and find a VERY bad woman (maybe Tabitha!!!!).
Ok, so the actual reality is that you are not actually beaten in a political sense till you chose to roll over and die, but as a unionist who has had to negotiate with a large employer and represent in the workplace at the grass roots level, let me tell you, its been a shit since Rattus took power. That bastards legacy and lesson to those of the left is NEVER give up. Fight as best you can with whatever you have.
Read Sun Tzu, it will help make sense of both the political wilderness and the view from the high ground. Even better, understand it!!
I feel somewhat vindicated as is natural after an election win. Even won a fiver off the boss!! And now, it goes on. Hope Rudd and Co do well. Julia for PM after Rudd has 2 terms though!!!!!!!!!!!
Seeyahs!
where is Lose The Election Please? his side lose?
Look, this is unbelievable. I was actually deflated when Stephen Smith predicted a 20-25 gain by Labor! (By the way, congragts on a spot-on prediction!) Just shows how wild our expections have become! There is a lot of low hanging fruit for 2010!
pissed.. hard to see keyboard..my estimate of 79 setas puts me in the pessimiist camp 🙂
You beauty… Mia not dead yet in Sturt…The long dark night has finally broken…
walking in a Kevin wonderland
Beazley had it right… he says Rudd will lead for 12 years but his first election will be the closest one.
I can’t wait to see the first news bulletin that reads – Opposition Leader Peter Costello. Ha! Couldn’t have happened to a nicer guy. Not PM Costello but Opposition Leader Costello. Sucked in you wage destroying gimp!
#710 –
“That’s not a very nice thing to say about Crosby Textor, they had the ALP at that for most of the year.”
And they should have known that kind of support for Labor would never eventuate in an election. Actually, I think the ALP should be concerned that their primary wasn’t higher.
[ #721
kina Says:
November 25th, 2007 at 12:46 am
Beazley had it right… he says Rudd will lead for 12 years but his first election will be the closest one. ]
Kina,
Are you now the left wing version of Nostradamus?
Absolutely tremendous job William B. and Possums C.
Haha, so bloody Morgan were closest after all
Heres to a cabniet dominated by ex trade union officals.
Australia has given us a mandate!
[ I think the ALP should be concerned that their primary wasn’t higher. ]
I’m sure they’re terrified. Shaking in their boots. It probably means they’ll get voted out in about 6 to 9 years.
Indeed ND,
If Rudd rolls over to you guys it will be a short lived cabinet, but after the campaign I believe him that he will keep you guys at arms length.
William, I’m hardly sober enough to type this, but please accept my thanks for your brilliant efforts, even if it means a big job removing one rodent and furnishings tomorrow morning!
As I put a nice wager on Ms McKew some weeks back, I’ll be slinging a bit to yours truly when I’m sober!
KR
I feel like its the end of the Poseidon adventure and that music comes on ” there’s got be a morning after”
There is a serious chance that O’Connor will fall to the Nationals. The Nats have polled above the ALP and will therefore pick up almost all Labors and the Greens preferences. My life would be completre if old Iron Bar Tuckey lost.
NB: I did mention this months ago, im glad it may come true.
Edward,
I don’t think you’ll notice much difference now that Rudd’s in charge. He’s a ‘steady as she goes’ kind of guy. He’s not a revoltionary. That’s not what Australians wanted. He’ll be pretty much middle of the road on most things.
Only disappointment of the night was to see Pyne get up by such a small margin.
Mia really was a superb candidate & I think would have represented those of us in Sturt very well.
I see he’s already talking about becoming deputy Liberal leader (God help the Liberal Party).
Just got back from the ALP party at the Semaphore Surf Lifesaving Club in Adelaide. Was great to hear victory speeches from Steve Georganas (Hindmarsh) and Mark Butler (Port Adelaide). I hadn’t heard Mark Butler speak before, but he is very impressive, and will be a future minister in a Rudd Labor government. Congratulations to all associated with the ALP.
[ There is a serious chance that O’Connor will fall to the Nationals. ]
ABC reckon Wilson will hang on.
The Liberals will wake up tomorrow without a leader. I wonder what they will do.
Rudd has done an absolutely amazing thing. Took over in December and hit the ground running and didn’t stop until now. He has held it all together for so long with the MSM just waiting for every slip to condemn him. He has been brilliant.
Beazley did make the point tonight that the it is always the first election of a government that is the hardest one to win.
No Paul K – not for me. I am simply happy Rudd broke the Howard hold on democracy. I would have voted for him even if he were Mickey Mouse. Most important thing to get rid of this dangerous govt.
I doubt Rudd will last that long without a challenge. There is some serious talent around him, if he goes on the nose they will out him quick. Not like the silly Libs.
Last night on Lateline, Trioli started the program with a smarty bum “It WAS the economy, stupid!” Well to Trioli I say, “Stupid, it WASN’T the economy!”
733 Paul K,
I think so too.
[ “Stupid, it WASN’T the economy!” ]
As Tony Abbot’s mate Jesus says: ” Man does not live by bread alone “.
Can we hear more from Steven Kaye? He’s cracking me up.
Eddie at 716, if illiteracy is your coping mechanism – more power to you.
McPherson and, for that matter, Ryan are very interesting though – although for two different reasons entirely.
Forde became a cracker of a seat.
Paul K #736
I know he will probably hold on I just like the thought of him loosing O’Connor.
Which if any Liberal members will now retire rather than wallow in opposition?
Its kind of ironic Paul K, despite being tagged as a “Liberal” on this site many of the doubts I had about Rudd were assuaged over the course of the year.
I think he will break decisively with the unions and I think he bring in some moderate IR legislation, do something on climate change, spend more on ed and otherwise be steady as she goes.
Thats not too bad all things considered.
How long do you give Gillard as Deputy PM?
When will have the final result on Bennelong?
I bet $200 on McKew @ $2.3 back then out of hatred of Howard (not that I believed McKew would win 🙂
Possum I am relaxed and comfortable.
Your predictions were your predictions, you did predict a rock solid ALP primary of 46% as I recall and a loss of the doctors wives heartland at one stage.
Too much reliance on econometrics
And the interest rate/vote correlation went down the drain too Possum
S Kaye @ 723 – well now the alp have incumbency. if they’re behind they’ll have the narrowing to rely on as the election draws closer.
Edward,
I hope you still are going to be around to talk politics in the future. There’s an election in the US coming up and maybe one in the UK and lots of interesting stuff will be going on with the new government here and the new Opposition.