Morgan: 54.5-45.5

Roy Morgan has released a phone survey of 1670 voters including 1025 in hand-picked Coalition marginals. It shows Labor with an overall lead of 54.5-45.5 on two-party preferred, or 46.5 per cent to 40 per cent on the primary vote. The picture is somewhat better for the Coalition in the marginals, where the swing to Labor is 5.2 per cent compared with 7.2 per cent overall. Morgan aren’t done yet: the accompanying release tells us “the final Morgan Poll will be conducted tonight and released on election morning”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,119 comments on “Morgan: 54.5-45.5”

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  1. It won’t be close.

    But I suppose the good news is that *if* it is, it’s going to be all the sweeter. Raising Lib hopes, only to dash them oh-so-cruelly, is only the start of the payback.

  3. But they didn’t call the Galaxy Poll a “cliffhanger” and that was a 52/48! This whole “Cliffhanger” talk has really spooked me! I had so much confidence so I’m hoping it won’t be dampened too much after 4 PM.. :\

  5. I still don’t see a Labor victory.

    Jukebox suggestions for tomorrow night:

    Beatles – Revolution
    McCarthy – We are all bourgeois now
    Oasis – Acquiesce (Accompanying Rudd’s march to the podium in the (unlikely) event of a Labor win)
    Manics – Motorcycle emptiness
    RATM – Sleep now in the fire
    Rolling Stones – Street Fightin’ Man
    Oasis – Cigarettes and Alcohol
    Billy Joel – Allentown
    Libertines – Arbeit macht frei
    Manics – Freedom of speech won’t feed my children
    Dropkick Murphys – Fortunate son
    Stone Roses – She bangs the drums
    Pink Floyd – Money
    Jarvis Cocker – Running the world
    Jimi – All along the watchtower
    Manics – A design for life
    Radiohead – Electioneering

    ($200.00 on the Coalition to hang on)

  10. I am SO happy that Howard is going to win, this is from polls of 39-61 two party preferred for much of the year. This is going to make this one of the most greatest come from behind wins in Western political history.

  11. To Ralph #843 – It is amazing that the ignoramus have Howard’s vote (but I think she was always a Howard voter anyway).
    Perhaps the Jackie Kelly Jihad-gate will actually help the Libs and explains why people are turning to the coalition! After all, we are an isolated country full of ignorant bigots and this is what they like to hear, and confirms everything alan Jones tell’s them. Also it’s howard’s policy to keep his battlers dumb so they keep voting coalition.
    Anyway I have $80 on JWH losing benelong ($2.20), $50 on Newhouse ($2.55) and $20 on Mike Bailey ($3.90) and $100 fee on Labor ($1.22).
    If I win all four (small “L” libs going labor), the proceeds will go to a car GPS – and I’ll thanks the libs.
    Labor by 12 seats.

  15. Regarding the politically disingaged. A friend of mine used to work in a video/dvd store and he told me that election night is the busiest day. People would be lining up down the street to get there hands on ANYTHING as long as they didn’t have to watch the election coverage. However this may have changed rapidly since the ever growing popularity of Foxtel.

  17. Didn’t think I’d ever say this but seems like LTEP and Glen are more positive about a Labor win than most of the Labor supporters on this site.

  21. The Coalition can’t win by 3 seats because there are an even number of total seats.

    I’m predicting 77 Coalition, 2 independent and 71 Labor; that’s a Coalition majority of 4.

  23. But this will give the impression that Howie can stay in power like a 1998 result.

    It all depends on primaries if the Tories and Labor are equal on primaries anything is possible.

    Newspoll 51-49 for me.

  25. 888 – I believe Howard said you’d have to be an idiot to not believe in the polls before. And he uses Textor Crosby polls.
    However, now he says they are irrelevant.

  26. Steph, the LNP primary vote is simply too low.

    They havent got a hope in hell, and they know it.

    Thats why Howard is in Leichardt, with a 10% margin. He’s trying to prevent a wipeout.

    If he was trying to win an election, he’d be in a marginal seat.

  27. getting considerably less confident as the seconds tick closer to the election. surely this is just a part of being a labor voter?

  28. The problem here is that there is pretty much a vacuum – notwithstanding the imminent release of Newspoll which will just mean the nothingness will feed off not very much for a frantic few hours.. Bear in mind the following:

    Too much of nothing
    Can make a man abuse a king.
    He can walk the streets and boast like most
    But he wouldn’t know a thing.
    Now, it’s all been done before,
    It’s all been written in the book,
    But when there’s too much of nothing,
    Nobody should look.

  31. [ if the Tories and Labor are equal on primaries ]

    They won’t be. Keep on dreaming Glen and Nosty. Labor with a minimum of 80 seats but keep on going. It’ll just make it all the more painful for you tomorrow night.

  32. 6 months ago i predicted 80 seats, 1 month a go I predicted 80 seats, 1 week ago I predicted 80 seats and now 80 seats.
    And the lucky seats are:
    kingston, bonner,wakefield, paramatta, makin, braddon, hasluck, bass, moreton, solomon, lindsay, eden mon, bennelong, dobbel, page,blair, herbert, robertson, bowman, dawson.

    And the smokers are Ryan, Kalgoorlie, sturt, (coorangi/deakin/mcmillan 1 of)

    Newspoll had 50/50 last election. 47% voted for humphrey b bear or equivalent.

    Now we have a product, we have workchoices, and we have Kyoto. They have lies, cover up, scandell, spending.

    Bank it do what you want. Last state election I predicted 8 and picked Morwell to fall.

  33. I think its safe to say Rudd Lovers will be more unhappy should they lose than should we lol!

    If it rains on Saturday night what will happen at Suncorp good if you win it’ll be like Woodstock bad if you lose though.

    Neither side if they win will have a majority of more than 10.

    Tories by 3 or Labor by 6.

    But i think the Tories still have a decent chance especially with this lovely poll 🙂

  36. I remember a newspoll in the Australian the thursday of the 96 election, to the effect that it was “wait for it” now neck and neck. Even then, while hoping for a miracle I smelt a rat. It smacked far too much of an incentive to make sure you don’t take any risks with third parties and so forth.

    I think regardless of why this poll shows a “cliff hanger” or indeed how, if there is genuine sentiment for change out there, this will only firm up the opposition’s support.

    But with lh an kr both in Qld, and both touring 10% seats, their mail aint “teh narrowing” that’s for sure.

  37. Watching a replay of “insight” is the greatest argument against compulsory voting I have ever seen. Mother of God some of these people are stupid. Evolution my ass :p

  38. even if Newspoll comes out close to 50/50 that’s still 2 polls which are above 54% for the ALP.

    So we have Galaxy and Newspoll below and ACN and Morgan above.

    If we presume they will keep the same level of accuracy as the ’04 election then it’s a pretty split bag, but I think Newspoll was the worst. This means we’d really be more inclined to weight slightly above Galaxy, so around 53.5%.

    Of course, we can’t really know how accurate any of them are until the night.

  40. anyone remember which electorates howard/latham visited in 2004 on their last day, and, perhaps of more relevance, which electorates howard/keating visited on their last day in 96?
    if howard has been in leichdart then suuuurely that means something.

  43. If Howard gets back in it will confirm that appealing to peoples’ basest instincts of greed, racism and bigotry work.

    Best contender for a national credo in the event of a return of the libs:

    “Greed is good”

    “I’m alright Jack, f*ck everyone else!”

    “Racist bigotry is to be aspired to”

    “The foreigners are coming and will steal our jobs then kill us all!”

    “Live for today. The future of this planet’s not our problem. Let future generations deal with it”

    “Workers are just fodder that can be bought and discarded at will and treated like shit as the lowlife scum they are”

    I will thorughly despair for this country.

  44. Personally I don’t care what the 2PP newspoll value is, I’ll be looking at the ALP primary vote. If it is less than 43 or 44 I will be worried. Otherwise I will be delighted.

  45. Rudd Lovers don’t u remember the last newspoll of 2004….50-50 but we won 53-47 so even if it was 50-50 anything could happen including a big win for Mr Krudd. But also it could mean a cliff hanger 🙂

  46. Looking at the Galaxy figures, does anyone believe that Family First went from “less than 1%” to 2.5% in the space of 2.5 weeks?

    That’s the major change here. The Coalition primary only went up 0.5% which isn’t significant.

  48. [Rudd Lovers don’t u remember the last newspoll of 2004….50-50 but we won 53-47 so even if it was 50-50 anything could happen including a big win for Mr Krudd. But also it could mean a cliff hanger]

    It may be a cliff hanger in terms of 2pp vote, but it won’t be a cliff hanger in terms of seats. Compulsory preferential stops that from happening.

  49. Im not im just saying even if it was Labor more likely could do what we did in 2004, get 50-50 in the last newspoll but win 53-47 like we did. Either that or a cliff hanger.

  50. Here’s a curious line from Rattus Rattus from the SMH article:

    “No, certainly not, because I had things I wanted to do and many of them of course are part of our plans. The Murray-Darling water thing, if we are returned tomorrow I’m going to go back to the Victorian government and say ‘Look, the federal election is now over, can we stop this nonsense of the last year?’.”

    So he will use an election victory to claim a mandate – here comes ‘SerfChoices II’

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