Statsmeister extraordinaire Geoff Lambert has sent through an exhaustive statistical analysis of recent polling trends, and concluded that the number of seats won by Labor will have a nine in front of it. Read all about it here. In other prediction news, I have contributed an assessment of the state of play in the Senate to Crikey. For those who can’t or won’t read this, a quick summary. I think it most likely that New South Wales, Victoria and Tasmania will go three Labor, two Liberal and one Greens, Western Australia will reverse those numbers for Labor and Liberal, and South Australia will go two Labor, two Liberal, one Greens and one Nick Xenophon. Queensland is a tricky one, but if I had to put my money somewhere it would be on three Labor and three Coalition – though neither the Greens nor Family First can be written off. I will also go out on the same limb as Malcolm Mackerras and tip Kerrie Tucker of the Greens to defeat Liberals Senator Gary Humphries in the ACT. That points to a huge result of six Senate seats for the Greens. The Coalition will be down from 39 seats to 34, Labor will be up from 28 to 32, and the Greens will double their numbers from four seats to eight, with Nick Xenophon and Steve Fielding joining them on the cross-benches. I must sadly concur with the consensus that this election will mark the end of the Australian Democrats.
BBD-Izzy is not interested in reasoned argument. Just ranting.Everybody knows its only the ALP that has the guts and the ideas to do things for this country. After Mondays effort Howard is doing his best to reinvent himself as a modern day Beveridge. He has truly become the champion of the welfare state. So ironic. Frankly Im ashamed that the ALP have been outflanked on the concept of welfare for all and not just the poor. Old Peter Walsh did his best to dismantle middle class welfare in the Hawke era and Rattus is doing his best to bring it back.
Another irony is that when he was thrown out of office in 83 he left us with the bottom of the harbour tax schemes and when he’s off to his well earned retirement home in a couple of weeks he would have again tired to legalise tax evasion with his home savings accounts. At least he’s consistent.
A spectre is haunting the Liberals, the spectre of Opposition. Marx is Boss.
147
Specifically only in marginal seats the libs are concerned about.
They have just started showing up in Canning or about Canning on TV in the last couple of days.
The Hasluck ads have all but disapeared now, but not because Lib concern has ebbed I expect.
146.. All the pieces will be in place soon. JWH might be the last to know.
Tell me I’m dreamin’!
I’ve just read those GG oped’s and it’s truly amazing, they’ve come round to the reality that the rodent is dead, and there is indeed a new leader before us.
Whoa! That’s it, all bar the voting, and the end of a miserable little man’s mendacious hold over the electorate. It’s goodbye to kissing the ass of that faux Texan, it’s goodbye to victimising the helpless for political advantage, and it’s goodbye to the ‘born to rule’ mindset that oozes out the likes of Abbott and Costello.
Bring it on!
145 – did you mean leptokurtic?
http://tinyurl.com/35qw2l
liberal party ‘natural constituency’ is that like something God gave you or did you inherit it from mummy and daddy?
Sweetheart you mob lose on 24th take a look around Australia and then tell me where your natural constituency is princess.
A bit of stress and you vilify hard-working Australians and make tabitha begin to look like the better more imaginative, more logical writer … nighty nite hun.
151
A bit more campaigning to go Kirri, lets not drop the ball.
If you or anyone else reading this is not yet signed up to help out on polling day, call your local prefered political party office (or the Your Rights @ Work campaign) and get on board.
Progressive party supporters should enjoy the experience i susspect.
DGW,
me-too, am predicting shortish careers for the 3 Roosters.
Smith IS as boring as batsh*t and is on borrowed time.
Conroy will forever dwell in the mediocrity that is Steve Conroy.
Swan will be replaced by Tanner and Emerson as soon as a reasonable time has elapsed (probably the first term).
El nino, oops yes. Just lost the spelling bee. Yes, must go to bed (and drop the k).
leptokurtic leptokurtic leptokurtic keptolurti zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz
146
Crazy paving. JWH.
I did have a more considered and reasoned response, munz, but lost it somewhere.
Given the circumstances – I kind of like ‘kleptokurtic’ – it has a certain irony.
Rudd underspending them has really annoyed the Tories. They’re all whining and making up new numbers tonight. Bahaha!
As if they couldnt see that coming!
They’ve been such a pushover this election. Rudd’ s been all over them like a rash.
Isabella, the mask slips.
I particularly like the honesty of your class hatred. My people KNOW your people think like this; but it’s so good to hear it said occasionally. Thanks.
What’s happened to Overington at the GG? She has gone awfully quiet…
[What’s happened to Overington at the GG? She has gone awfully quiet…]
She’s getting some new colours.
I warned you all months ago what a clever pixie the Ruddster is – I said he wouldn’t wedged and he wouldn’t be outsmarted by anyone, and Glen and Edward and all their orcs snarled and snorted, but I was right. The Reign of the Ruddster is about to begin. Resistance is futile.
Swing Lowe @ #93
From the SMH article, it sounds like the Nats are really worried about this seat.
My sources in this seat (conservative type people who aren’t involved in politics) tell me that work choices is hated big time. The centrelink harrassment of single mothers is also working against the Nats.
I can’t be sure that this is the case throughout the electorate, as my contacts are all in one area.
William – I followed with interest your moderation on the previous thread, as you sought on a number of occasions to maintain a reasonable level of decorum on this site. My impression was that you had decided no further over the top language or personal abuse would be tolerated.
If I am correct in that observation, I was wondering how Isabella’s little contribution in post #6 would fit in with those aims, especially the following:
“Once again the ALP shows its hypocrisy. The do-gooders are really just the heirs to the throne of the racist, sexist, brain-dead thugs and morons of the trade union movement”.
Isabella also had some choice words to say a day or so back, describing Labor voters as dole bludging scum bags, or something very similar.
In the interests of clarity can you please advise if you find this kind of language an acceptable form of “debate”.
Tory C
The Polls ask who is a better economic manager.
I susspect if the Morgan or newspolls had asked “do you believe Rudd will wreck the economy” the no vote would have been equal to or higher than the ALP primary.
The same would be said for “do you believe Rudd would more evenly share the benefits of a strong economy”
And also “do you believe Rudd would consider a longer term future when making decisons about managing the economy”
I find when you compare an issues question to the primary of that party you get a clearer idea. Recent polling I am aware of showed that although 60%+ of the poulation believed the ALP are union influenced only 32% considered it a concern- less than the Lib primnary vote.
Voters were actually more concerned that 100% of the Lib front bench voted for workchoices and the figure was much higher than the ALP primary vote.
Adam @ 162
It is reasonable to say that Rudd has sold out for the sake of expediency though?
http://www.theage.com.au/news/federal-election-2007-news/green-businessman-bids-to-oust-howard/2007/11/14/1194766771843.html
I highly encourage everyone to do all they can to get Howard kicked out of his seat.
The time is now.
Jake: No.
Re #145 – KeepingALidOnIt, I agree that ‘doctors’ wives’ is derisive and patronising, but it is important to realise that this is the term which has been used for some years by the Liberals themselves to dismiss small-‘l’ liberal concerns about human rights. It’s this very derisive dismissal of what used to be the Liberal support base, and concentration for some years on racist & xenophobic policies to appeal to marginal seat swinging voters which is going to lose a whole string of safe seats, while WorkChoices loses the marginals.
The ‘doctors’ wives’ who have been deserting the Coalition in increasing numbers since the 2001 election are actually men and women who live in the eastern suburbs of Melbourne or Sydney’s North Shore, and work as professionals or in the financial services sector. They are beneficiaries of the globalised economy. They can’t stomach Tampa, immigration detention centres, and not ratifying the Kyoto Protocol. Watch the seats of North Sydney, Warringah, Kooyong and Higgins on election night. All four have swung quite hard (in relative terms compared to the average swing in the particular State) against the Government at the last two elections.
I’m gobsmacked. The GG commentators have finally seen the writing on the wall.
I’m suspecting uncle Rupert has had a quiet word…
165
Rudd has patrolled the fence line built along the 55% mark of popular policy. If howard encroached on this line, Rudd trodd on his toes with the Me-too.
Howard the trod on his toes and so on and so forth.
The problem for Howard is that firstly he was fighting over the 55/45 line and not the 50/50 line and secondly he didn’t see Rudd jump over his side today and take territory he though he wouldn’t need to defend i.e fiscal responsability.
Rudd may now be walking the 56/44 or better line. At the very least he doesn’t need to worry about the 55/45 line being breached anymore
geez it must be my bed time- night all.
@85
I agree Steve,I’ve never seen the bitterness from the Libs like this before either.
The good ship Titanic is rapidly nearing the iceberg with Howard et al frantically rearranging the deck chairs,there’s little else for them to do.
As you can see I’m a Queenslander,and we are different when it comes to our politics,the states political history proves that.
Well,we are going to be different on the 24/11 as well.Rudd is a Queenslander and that IS worth a lot up here.We want a Queenslander for PM,make no bones about it and we are going to elect one.Kevin Rudd will win upwards of 10 seats,maybe even more, Ryan is gone,and if the leafy suburbs are shifting you know where this is heading??
This state almost alone will put Rudd into power and don’t doubt it for one minute.
http://getup.org.au/promisewatch/
Promisewatch, a great concept for democracy and accountability.
For those near Bennelong who want to do their part to get rid of John Howard
http://www.getup.org.au/campaign/Bennelong
Most polling during elections has been pretty spot on in picking the winner. When was the last election where the polling was out of whack?
One that I can remember is Kennett at the Victorian Election where he is was the standout favourite and lost. Most other state elections have ended up as the polls predicted.
I know that Federal Election tend to be a lot tighter and too close to call but again the standout is probably Keating’s unexpected win in 93.
With the polling being so definitive this time, it is hard to see them being that far off the eventual outcome. Any unlikely comeback would have to write new records.
Glen
The interesting thing about Julie Bishop tonight was that she mostly did not talk about education. She tried the line of mimicking Howard.
Her point about computer access started with the line “State governments have provided…”. These are of course the same State Governments who have been so bad at providing services. Now she admits Labor governments actually have achieved something.
Let’s face it Bishop is out of her depth, she provides no leadership to this country in education, hasn’t a clue!
I don’t think she would remember what a school looks like or what it is for.
To professional educators she is a joke.
Adam he’s only been able to do this because he’s,
Me-tooed any popular Tory policy, thus selling out core Labor beliefs.
Avoided media scrutiny (thanks to a weak media who want to see Howard lose)
Had his Labor mates in the States block or trash any worthwhile initiative (NT, 10b Water Plan)
Runs his policies by a PR company to gage how much support they’ll have.
Making old and outdated policies seem new and fresh when they’re old.
Been able to hide his backbenchers and his shadow ministers enough so that all the focus is on Rudd, hence we’ve been sold a pig in a poke and we’ll all be sorry should we wake up with Krudd all over our faces should our economy take a turn for the worst if they take over.
169 The daily “memo” will have it covered.
Isabella, for all you conservatives’ talk about individual freedoms, you’re pretty quick to lump us all into one bunch. I could just as easily point at Pauline Hanson and say, “All right-wingers are like this!” But that would be just as inane as your post.
Bob from Bonner 171 – I’m from Moreton (howdly-doodly neighbour) and just plonked my Sportingbet $100 freebie on Ryan. Don’t know if Daniels will get up but got to be a good chance. I’ll be watching Petrie too but that will be harder. Both you and I will be in Labor seats come the 25th, I’m confident of that much … why am I still nervous though …
Glen: what absolute nonsense
Back spreading more lies again, even after they’ve been debunked.
You’re regressing from Stage 4 bargaining, back to Stage 1 Denial
A rebuttal:
[‘Me-tooed any popular Tory policy, thus selling out core Labor beliefs.
Avoided media scrutiny (thanks to a weak media who want to see Howard lose)
Had his Labor mates in the States block or trash any worthwhile initiative (NT, 10b Water Plan)
Runs his policies by a PR company to gage how much support they’ll have.
Making old and outdated policies seem new and fresh when they’re old.
Been able to hide his backbenchers and his shadow ministers enough so that all the focus is on Rudd, hence we’ve been sold a pig in a poke and we’ll all be sorry should we wake up with Krudd all over our faces should our economy take a turn for the worst if they take over.’]
1. The Entire Liberal campaign launch was a me-too of ALP policy.
2. Shanahan, Albrechtsen, Ackerman, Overington, Kelly, Bolt, Fran Kelly, Speer.
Can you name half as many biased left wing commentators?
3. Two words – Textor Crosby
4. Howard is just old and hasn’t come up with a single new policy.
5. Haven’t heard from Andrews and Ruddock recently. What positions do they hold again? And we have rising interest rates. What is the Howard solution? Spend more. Just like his solution to the drought, is government advertising and prayer.
Come back when you want your specious arguments dismantled again.
It makes the Liberals look really bad.
Oh Glen, really, stop feeding the chooks! It does not become you.
Colin with respect if she is such a joke i hate to think how you viewed Stephen Smith’s performance tonight, a revolution hah ill take the Tsar any day mate!
Anyway to professional educations 85% of them who vote for the left i hardly consider their opinions of her as valid considering they pander to the State ALP Government’s who’ve let many public schools down so badly and who rarely have the ticker to attack the ALP Ministers at least the Teachers Unions are like that anyway.
She outperformed Smith last night, and like McClelland and Garrett and Swan will have a different portfolio after 4months in a Rudd government. Not even Br’er Rabbit could get Smith out of the pickle his woeful performance has got him into.
Seriously Colin he was as boring if not more boring than Andrew Robb on lateline zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz at least Bishop is excited about education and has a good plan for the future for education what does Smith have lets see,
a broadband plan not available to students until 2013 probably later.
computers for students at schools when 100% have computer access, and these computers Rudd is offering can’t be taken home.
doesn’t know what to do with the 7b it saved from not having any serious announcements for its launch? maybe they’ll pay back the Unions if they win???
Not much a revolution more like a badly planned revolt that was put down with 2 hours…
Adam – Rather blunt answer. I think he has, but I assume most Laborites are hoping that what Garrett said was the truth. I’m one of them [one of the hopers, not a Laborite]. As my mate constantly reminds me “you can be principled and stay in opposition or pragmatic and actually make changes in government.” I guess he has a point. But you can’t deny Labor is further right than ever.
As usual my timing probably sucks, but.. anyone know when the next poll(s) will be?
[Colin with respect if she is such a joke i hate to think how you viewed Stephen Smith’s performance tonight, a revolution hah ill take the Tsar any day mate!]
Who cares how good she is, she’ll be sitting to the left of the speaker’s chair when parliament next sits.
[Anyway to professional educations 85% of them who vote for the left ]
And if you are any guide, illiterate vote for the Liberals.
[She outperformed Smith last night, and like McClelland and Garrett and Swan will have a different portfolio after 4months in a Rudd government.]
Wow, you are learning! Yous aid “Rudd government”. Very good!
[doesn’t know what to do with the 7b it saved from not having any serious announcements for its launch? maybe they’ll pay back the Unions if they win???]
Idiot.
[Not much a revolution more like a badly planned revolt that was put down with 2 hours…]
And it will be passed by the parliament. Suffer Glen – you lose.
From the Doctor’s Union.
[With 10 days to go until the federal election, both sides of politics are being urged to do more on health and helping disadvantaged Australians.
President of the Australian Medical Association (AMA), Doctor Rosanna Capolingua, says she is still waiting to hear more about the Coalition’s plan to hand control of public hospitals to local boards, and time is running out.
“We’re very keen to see what’s on offer so we can make a comparison,” she said.
“We would have been keen to see from the Coalition and Labor a bit clearer commitment to policies.”]
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/11/15/2091185.htm?section=justin
Asanque at 180 – What has happened to Fran Kelly? She never used to be right-wing (when she was on Radio National about 6-7 years ago – i’ve been out of the country for a while)…..
Jake, perhaps so. But if so its a reflection of society as a whole. Try change that.
[As usual my timing probably sucks, but.. anyone know when the next poll(s) will be?]
Probably 2 Morgan’s tomorrow – face to face and phone.
Probably a Nielsen leaked on Lateline tomorrow night.
If the last two weeks is a guide, there will be a Galaxy poll in an close marginal seat leaked on Lateline, then published on Sunday.
North Sydney perhaps? Or maybe Eden-Monaro given its reputation as a Bell-Weather.
adam @ 162
very cocky post and boast there.
especially coming from someone who was ridiculing others for being confident of comfortable victory only weeks ago.
if i recall, you were in about the 78 seat margin weren’t you?
Mad Cow,
AC Nielsen Poll due on 16/11
paul.. does that mean the final nielsen wil be at the end of next week, and are they doing another online poll.. or a combined one?
any idea about galaxy?
tah dude
This is the lead story at the GG as of Now:
Rudd’s smart nation drive
“Matthew Franklin, Chief political correspondent”
KEVIN Rudd has gambled on austerity, boldly underspending John Howard’s “reckless” campaign promises.
methinks rodent cactus?
Glen
What plan does she have?
Oh I remember.
We will revitalize history teaching by increasing the narrative and decreasing analysis, too dangerous to have students actually thinking. Introduce performance pay initiatives (proven failures in other countries) but not support the initiative with money, some salaries will have to decrease. This is not standards based but some waffle about student results. She could not even quantify this one.
She could not even get that one past MCEETYA.
I find it reprehensible that you should so easily dismiss a group of professionals as you do. Is it the same with nurses? What about the AMA? Oh I forgot doctors are still male in the majority but professional groups that are dominated by women can be attacked by anyone.
The lack of respect for a group of highly trained people held by the right is astonishing.
More at the GG:
Paul Kelly “ALP wins the high ground on economy” (!!!!)
http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/paulkelly/index.php/theaustralian/comments/alp_wins_the_high_ground_on_economy/
Graham Young: “the Liberal launch was a pretty effective curtain-raiser for Labor” 😉
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22761092-5013480,00.html