Educated guesswork

Statsmeister extraordinaire Geoff Lambert has sent through an exhaustive statistical analysis of recent polling trends, and concluded that the number of seats won by Labor will have a nine in front of it. Read all about it here. In other prediction news, I have contributed an assessment of the state of play in the Senate to Crikey. For those who can’t or won’t read this, a quick summary. I think it most likely that New South Wales, Victoria and Tasmania will go three Labor, two Liberal and one Greens, Western Australia will reverse those numbers for Labor and Liberal, and South Australia will go two Labor, two Liberal, one Greens and one Nick Xenophon. Queensland is a tricky one, but if I had to put my money somewhere it would be on three Labor and three Coalition – though neither the Greens nor Family First can be written off. I will also go out on the same limb as Malcolm Mackerras and tip Kerrie Tucker of the Greens to defeat Liberals Senator Gary Humphries in the ACT. That points to a huge result of six Senate seats for the Greens. The Coalition will be down from 39 seats to 34, Labor will be up from 28 to 32, and the Greens will double their numbers from four seats to eight, with Nick Xenophon and Steve Fielding joining them on the cross-benches. I must sadly concur with the consensus that this election will mark the end of the Australian Democrats.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,009 comments on “Educated guesswork”

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  3. Stephen Hill @ 996:

    “I think the Auditor-Generals story is bigger than people are suggesting…”

    I agree. This is seriously damning evidence of pork-barrelling and that the Howard government is dishonest to its core. If the Labor and the Coalition had been neck and neck in the polls, this might have been a tipping point in the election. I doubt, however, that there are any Liberals left capable of unrusting themselves so it probably won’t have much of an effect.

    It’s the main item on ABC news, and I expect it’ll be a big issue on The 7.30 Report and Lateline and tomorrow’s AM.

    Another blogger suggested that there’s more nail than wood in the coffin now. After this, nails will be being hammered into nails.

  6. Geoff Lambert, love your work. Much appreciated, as all the analyses offered by proper psephy’s here, and again a big thanks to William for this site. Enormously useful for learning. And just to be a bit naughty, the sledging can be very funny. Top marks to Enemy Combatant for cracking me up every time I read a post.

  8. Glen at 883:

    Nath it is a prediction, it is a hypothetical they sometimes sound a little crazy.

    How about another crazy prediction someone could have made in 2006 that with Howard on the way back and Beazley faltering that some guy called Kevin Rudd could challenge him, win and then come close to winning an election with only 1 years experience. Had someone told you that last year you’d have called them crazy nath.

    Glen, I give you Peter Brent:

    http://www.mumble.com.au/index_oldish22.html#ruddlead

  9. The only chance Howard has of winning is if I back the ALP to win. If you knew my betting record you would know where I am coming from!

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