Statsmeister extraordinaire Geoff Lambert has sent through an exhaustive statistical analysis of recent polling trends, and concluded that the number of seats won by Labor will have a nine in front of it. Read all about it here. In other prediction news, I have contributed an assessment of the state of play in the Senate to Crikey. For those who can’t or won’t read this, a quick summary. I think it most likely that New South Wales, Victoria and Tasmania will go three Labor, two Liberal and one Greens, Western Australia will reverse those numbers for Labor and Liberal, and South Australia will go two Labor, two Liberal, one Greens and one Nick Xenophon. Queensland is a tricky one, but if I had to put my money somewhere it would be on three Labor and three Coalition – though neither the Greens nor Family First can be written off. I will also go out on the same limb as Malcolm Mackerras and tip Kerrie Tucker of the Greens to defeat Liberals Senator Gary Humphries in the ACT. That points to a huge result of six Senate seats for the Greens. The Coalition will be down from 39 seats to 34, Labor will be up from 28 to 32, and the Greens will double their numbers from four seats to eight, with Nick Xenophon and Steve Fielding joining them on the cross-benches. I must sadly concur with the consensus that this election will mark the end of the Australian Democrats.
The Lambert PDF goes to a broken link 🙁
Not anymore, Asanque.
Well. There we go, while waiting for a response, previous threads.
First
Computers in the sort of quantities that will be needed are very cheap and there are now a number of systems for schools that allow one very powerful PC to act as a server for up to 30 very cheap slaves. Can’t play graphics rich games on them (this year) but perhaps that is not the idea. Kids that need PCs with a lot of grunt to run CAD etc can be accomodated on stand alones.
772 Edward (previous post)
Thanks for the question Edward.
I would say the vast majority of people that work on campaigns in workplaces (mostly called organisers) come from the shop floor originally.
I did myself.
I understand why you would ask this question, certainly there was a point in time when this wasn’t always the case, but since the introduction of the Organising Works program in 1994 this has changed. That program focussed on recruiting and training young (and NESB where relevant), shop floor activists to become organisers.
Bill Shorten was a graduate!
That is not to say that after working as an organiser in the industry which you were once a shop floor worker and union delegate that you might not move into camapigns in other industries or work for other unions.
The other types of union officials recruited are mostly AFDs (aka f$%ken demics) which take up advocacy roles and research roles. Most have a background in social studies in addition to law or economics etc or have held roles in Student unions or community organisations at some stage.
The days of ALP hacks getting jobs in unions in return for delivering numbers is all but gone in almost all union branches across Australia, but i will not say it never happens. It certainly became common in the now distant past. Not unlike some gigs in Lib party no doubt.
The day of industrial Advocates becoming the union leaders also seems to be leaving us aswell interstingly enough. This is because campaigning and not commission work is the path to a win for members these days and is therefore the more sort after skill in leadership.
Just remember that unions are democracies, I have seen the leadership change hands in many unions over the past few years and you dont keep your job in a democracy without keeping voters interests at heart as Howard is now finding.
Look at the sexist Labor pigs here attack Julie Bishop on the basis of her gender and, FFS, the shape of her eyes.
The same fools that attack Bob Baldwin because he’s rotund. Hockey has also copped it.
They are so tolerant these loyal foot soldiers of the voice of moderation and decency, the ALP. They are the first to scream about the first hint of discrimination – until it’s directed against someone they hate.
Funny, I’ve never seen any Coalition supporters here carry on about stuff such as Penny Wong’s sexual preference or Michael Danby’s gut.
Once again the ALP shows its hypocrisy. The do-gooders are really just the heirs to the throne of the racist, sexist, brain-dead thugs and morons of the trade union movement.
I know this is self-interested, but I am amazed to see the odds at Sportingbet on Lowe:
Labor $1.01
Coalition $9.00
Am I right in saying that I will soon be living in a safe federal seat for the first time?
previous thread, re 749
Diogenes Says: Just a word to stick up for Julie Bishop
fair enough, she shouldn’t be bagged for her Marty Feldmans, but she nevertheless talks crap.
4- albert
Computers are going to be the equivalent of the old school locker.
You keep you workbooks, textbooks, timetable/calendar, leave notes for mates etc.
obviously they are much more than that but i see the similarity
[Computers in the sort of quantities that will be needed are very cheap and there are now a number of systems for schools that allow one very powerful PC to act as a server for up to 30 very cheap slaves. Can’t play graphics rich games on them (this year) but perhaps that is not the idea. Kids that need PCs with a lot of grunt to run CAD etc can be accomodated on stand alones.]
And no doubt there will be a deal with Mr Gates for a subsidised licence for Wiondows Vista and/or XP Pro as well.
[ concluded that the number of seats won by Labor will have a nine in front of it ]
Despite what he says I still think it will be between 80 and 85 seats for Labor. A comfortable majority but maybe not the desolation of the Libs some are hoping for.
Dave,
Name one union that has changed hands in recent years in NSW?
If its a democracy its Albanian style.
Communist Manifesto (1848) – vis a vis Workchoices:
You can still get on Newhouse on Sportingbet at $2.70. Suspended on Portlandbet and centrebet. They’d know more than we do about market movements in wentworth.
I’d love it to be 96 seats, but a more likely result is something like 78-82 seats for Labor.
Penny Wong a leso?
Ooh err, pictures please.
Hey Swing Lowe, did you get Jim Tsolakis junk mail (lib member for Lowe for the unitiated).
You really hard to look hard to see he was standing for the libs. Not one mention of rodent.
Well said Isabella
Thanks William for the analysis of the Senate. Assuming that the polls don’t lie (no wonder Howard hates polls) and Labor wins, the Senate is the next question. Does anyone know what Nick Xenephon’s views are on issues like Climate Change, Education, Workchoices etc? Would he vote with Labor?
It’s interesting how their anger at the prospect of having their snouts pulled out of the trough brings out the finest qualities in our Liberal friends, particularly their virulent snobbery. So that brazen Julia Gillard has a moderately broad Australian accent! How shocking. Doesn’t the gel know she’s supposed to talk like the Duchess of Kent if she wants to be received into polite society?
Sorry Edward, I am not in NSW and not close to it, but i know the Metal workers leadership changed hands nationally and NSW had a significant bearing.
I am in WA where the Teachers union has just seen big changes in leadership. The MUA changed hands recently too and even the Firefighters had contested elections with a change of team as a result.
I am not trying to argue with you Ed, just give the inside perspective you asked for without the spin if i can.
No 14
How dumb Karl Marx is.
Also, Isabella, you are a champion. Brilliant.
#7 yes, good to see a bit of self-righteous indignation Isabella.
Who gives a rats ass what you think Isabella? We’re going to win. Love it or leave.
Sure Dave I appreciate that.
Tend to agree with the SA assessment, as described.
The friends, despite my doubts, seem to intend to vote Labor Upper House.
The odd voice professes a reason which seem odd to me, such as Greens are left wing, but still say intend to go Labor.
In vain, I point out balance of power issues.
Hmmm, Julie Bishop finishes up on LL, then Isabella starts up on PB…….more than a coincidence?
And how can it be sexist if both men and women are attacked for their looks? More like looksist.
I love a well thought out comment like that Jai-Mei! Are you going to pull Isabella’s hair next?
Isabella and Edward,
Unfortunately both sides have been making sexist attacks and yes it is childish. However seeing you both are so offended I will look forward to you’re defending Julia G next time a Right Winger attacks her for what she is wearing, etc.
No 28
LOL! Whose up for an online quarrel?
7 [Once again the ALP shows its hypocrisy. The do-gooders are really just the heirs to the throne of the racist, sexist, brain-dead thugs and morons of the trade union movement.]
Sorry Isabella only speak two languages, can you translate that into something comprehensible please?
Henry,
I did get Jim Tsolakis’ junk mail – and I threw it directly into the bin (without reading it).
That said, it would not surprise me at all if Howard wasn’t mentioned in the letter – his name is virtual poison over here in the former Tory bastion of Strathfield…
William
I posted an entry on the Qld senate thread which shows contrary to what others say that One Nation and Pauline Hanson preferences can go to Family First to elect a FFP senator.
Also I would not write off Bartlett yet, if he gets around 4.5% primary or more then he has a good chance of being re-elected. Polls have shown the dem vote staying around this level and Bartlett does have a good profile to achieve this.
ABC senate calculator is intriguing with all of its possibilities, but I think the key is the order of the primary vote for Hanson, One Nation, Family First and the Democrats that decides whether it is a dem or a FFP senator elected.
However if the ALP primary is high this can also determine whether a green or a 3rd ALP gets in. I haven’t tried too many combinations, about 8 so far, so someone else may come up with different scenarios and theories.
I’m wondering if ESJ and Isabella support Bill Heffernan’s “deliberately barren” comments about Julia Gillard, and anything that comes out of Wilson Tuckey’s mouth?
Isabella
“The do-gooders are really just the heirs to the throne of the racist, sexist, brain-dead thugs and morons of the trade union movement.”
Said with typical dignity and class, you are a veritable Bill Heffernan.
Paul K,
I couldnt care a toss about Medicare Gold’s personal life, looks etc
William, I’ll be giving Andrew Bartlett my number 1 vote below the line in the Senate – but I agree that it’s the end of the road for The Dems. Their own fault really, a divided house etc etc. The dumping of Janet Powell (now with the Greens) was the beginning of the end. She predicted in 2004 they would disappear:
Snap, Jai Mei
Nothing like a new thread to clear the air.
Jai-Mei,
I think the Wilson story was legitimate. Her foregoing children by choice or circumstance is her business.
6
Isabella Says:
November 14th, 2007 at 11:36 pm
“Look at the sexist Labor pigs here attack Julie Bishop on the basis of her gender and, FFS, the shape of her eyes.”
….
It’s neither her gender nor the shape of her eyes that bothers me, it’s the form of her politics, and, especially, her pitiable fawning over John Howard. Luckily, I have the chance to vote against her next week, oink oink.
No 32
As did I. Jim Tsolakis hasn’t a chance in hell. Although, it’s mainly because the party has put no resources into helping Jim.
Innumerate Person @ 21 – be careful – you may be alienating a supporter.
Edward,
Yes, but will you complain if a Right Winger makes a sexist comment or is it just left wing sexists you complain about?
Well isn’t that good news! Even if it’s a bit out the Greens must surely have the balance. Why good? I hope they can give the Rudd Govt’s legislative programme more heart and soul. For example:
1. ensure more purposeful legislation on the environment (eg Tas)
2. soften moralistic proposals from the religious freaks in the ALP.
3. try to ensure ALP does really “tear up Workchoices”
4. work to reject current and future draconian ‘anti-terrrorism’ measures.
5. look after the poor and working poor, say on the tax cuts details.
Who could disagree with that?
Or for being ‘deliberately barren’, or regarding JWH and him ‘tolerating’ homosexuality…….
Why “sadly” re the demise of the Dems, William?
Aside from Bartlett (who has been great), I wouldnt give ya tuppence for em.
[How dumb Karl Marx is.]
He’s dead mate, get over it.
It was champagne comedy swing lowe – in the 10 things you didn’t know about Jim section it was mentioned he “has a big chuckle!” What a swell guy!
Wow wow wee waa! Hi five!