Statsmeister extraordinaire Geoff Lambert has sent through an exhaustive statistical analysis of recent polling trends, and concluded that the number of seats won by Labor will have a nine in front of it. Read all about it here. In other prediction news, I have contributed an assessment of the state of play in the Senate to Crikey. For those who can’t or won’t read this, a quick summary. I think it most likely that New South Wales, Victoria and Tasmania will go three Labor, two Liberal and one Greens, Western Australia will reverse those numbers for Labor and Liberal, and South Australia will go two Labor, two Liberal, one Greens and one Nick Xenophon. Queensland is a tricky one, but if I had to put my money somewhere it would be on three Labor and three Coalition – though neither the Greens nor Family First can be written off. I will also go out on the same limb as Malcolm Mackerras and tip Kerrie Tucker of the Greens to defeat Liberals Senator Gary Humphries in the ACT. That points to a huge result of six Senate seats for the Greens. The Coalition will be down from 39 seats to 34, Labor will be up from 28 to 32, and the Greens will double their numbers from four seats to eight, with Nick Xenophon and Steve Fielding joining them on the cross-benches. I must sadly concur with the consensus that this election will mark the end of the Australian Democrats.
Sure, inappropriate comments are inappropriate whichever dope utters them – “left” or “right”.
Having said that sexism is a charge that is often used to disguise a great many things including rank nepotism and incompetence.
Online survery of who had the best launch:
SMH on 6,487 responses:
Rudd 80%
Howard 20%
ABC 1229 votes counted
John Howard 66%
Kevin Rudd 34%
Looks the ABC has a ‘leftwing” bias then?
26 Crikey- I think your balance of power argument is quite popular in SA. We are feeling a bit left out of the pork-barrelling (everyone seems certain of 3 seat swing) and there are lots saying if SA holds the BOP with minor parties we can pork-barrel.
No 44
Communism never has worked and never will work, as much as I cherish your support.
ESJ, it’s a sexist and misogynist thing to say. It bewliders me that rusted on Libs think that the Labor party and ‘trade union bosses’ have a monopoly on this kind of behaviour. In my experience, Liberals, particulalrly of the right wing variety, and then especially of the right wing religious variety, are the worst.
Lets see the LNP come up with a woman as deputy leader (or in any leadership role) before we get too excited about ALP ‘sexism’, hmmmm?
Two points:
1. The Lambert link suggests Labor gets 97. I had forecast 81. This might be the only time in my life when I am happy to be proved outrageously pathetically wrong.
2. This whole working class unionist vs. middle class unionist debate is a hollow sham. Tories don’t like Labor, full stop. They don’t like it in a working class form and they don’t like it in a middle class form. I will, however, be very pleased (again) to be proven wrong – perhaps some of the mendacious and historically illiterate Tory blatherskites and provocateurs on here can post examples of the encomiums that flowed from their side when Bill McKell was appointed GG. I seem to recall that puffed-up toad Menzies calling it disgraceful. Give us a break – really.
Isabella, one does not need to be sexist or a pig to want to attack Julie Bishop at a political level.
She has been a completely ineffectual minister for Higher Education. She has basically done zip apart from continuing Nelsons bad policy. No initiatives of her own.She is also a lawyer and so from that most parasitic of professions.
I don’t recall anything special about the shape of her eyes, but one thing that does annoy me is the stunned rabbit expression she seems to wear in front of the TV cameras when being interviewed. She doesn’t seem to have it when you see her on the box and she is not the center of attention, weird. And a liability for her image i think.
Still, all probably academic as she’s a Liberal Party woman, and that means she’ll get used, set up and stabbed in the back, before she is in within spitting distance of a leadership position. If she survives this election anyway.
Anthony Green had some great stuff to say on the Greens vote being comitted and the Democrats not, in yesterdays thread re senate polls.
He said the greens upper and lower house votes match and ere normally a percent or two above the polling but you cant find a democrat voter in polling and their upper house vote is far superior to their lower house.
He said they are more or less left with last minute porrly thought out protest votes above the line in the upper house.
Worth a look if you haven’t them (the comments) yet
Arbie Jay and others,
One point can someone pick up from the other thread, can we expose this nonsense about the danger of “wall-to-wall” Labor govenments at State and Federal level? States can’t stop the Federal Government, only the Senate can. Even if Rud wins, he wil have to negotiate with Greens, Independants and any surviving Democrats to pas legislation. His power wil be limited. Regardless of this election, Howard on the other hand still has a Senate majority until next June. If he wins, he can do whatever he likes. This possibility is the real scare of this campaign, yet has rarely been discussed.
I hate to do it, but I hate to agree with Generic Person, but communism will never work. Unfortunately it goes completely against human biological nature. 2 million years of trying to f%&#k the other guy over 🙂
On a brighter note, a caption contest:
Julie Bishop, on Lateline, was hardly convincing.
Or even interested. Her eyes have calmed
For those who have already lost, she accepts her fate.
Relaxed, and undoubtedly comfortable.
Is she among the school of what? 96? who will keep their super and perks etc?
Come what may?
Generic Person – before you write of Marx – check this:
So much for class warfare…
Jai-mei – about Wilson?
Not at all. I think your friends at the CFMEU in Perth may care to differ. I am sure Fat Bastard will have ample material.
I’m off to dream about being punished (for being a Labor supporter) by a leather-clad Julie Bishop.
“Yes Miss, I have been a naughty boy”.
Dang she’s hot!
Why use sexist attacks on Julie Bishop? Just quote her. I suppose it’s because she’s a little on the dim side that people turn too easily to those sort of jokes.
Crikey Whitey,
From what I recall, Bishop is from the class of 98 – I think she won the seat of an ex-Liberal independent (feel free to correct me if I’m wrong on this…)
LOL imacca -as opposed to Labor woman – and we all know what happens to them hey?
Geoff thanks for all the work and to the Bludger for posting it. I’ll run my statistical eye over it tomorrow and get back to you.
I was going to post this on the previous thread, but it took so long to get through the volume of insightful comment I missed out. But here it is anyway.
There is a continual concen by Labor supporters on this site that something will go wrong and all the evidence that has been in front of them for at least nine months will be false.
I think we should be thankful that the Rudd team did a careful analysis of the situation early in the year, developed a strategy to operate in that environment and have had the balls to stick with it right through.
To the extent people worry about something emegig that damage Labor, the same is true of the Government. From what I am hearing it is expected that an authorative report should come out tomorrow, which will call into question some significant Government spending over recent years.
It could be interesting!
[I hate to do it, but I hate to agree with Generic Person, but communism will never work. ]
I don’t think anyone proposed in this thread that it could work, or should even be tried.
It was G.P. that started crapping on about Howard holding onto the “working class”.
There you go again ShowsON – are you chronically constipated or what?
Edward seems to have abandoned his customary caution in making predictions. He is predicting that the ALP and Greens (including Xenophon, who is really an independent Green) between them will get four quotas (57%) in NSW, Vic, SA and Tas, leaving only Qld and WA for a three/three split. This is a big call, and implies an absolute electoral tsunami in the Reps. While I’m now quite certain Labor will win the election, I’m not willing to go this far.
Btw, let me go on record as saying that I don’t find Julie Bishop remotely attractive.
There are several Labor women currently in Parliament (eg, Kate Ellis) or running for Parliament (eg, Mia Hanshin) who are clearly more attractive than JB.
However, I still think the title for the most attractive women in any Parliament in Australia is Virginia Judge – current state member for Strathfield (and yes, I know I’m being parochial…)
[There you go again ShowsON – are you chronically constipated or what?]
Great contribution.
ShowsOn: I was just agreeing with that one statement. Had nothing to do with the rest of the thread
Ooops, that should be “William”, not “Edward”.
Do you reckon that Rudd really is playing with Howards head on a daily basis? I mean all the ‘me too-ism’ must have been driving JoHo & co nuts (planned… absolutely). So JoHo starts matching the Ruddite (alls fine in love ‘n’ war), but did Rudd see that coming (… hmmm…head games…) And now the Ruddite knew JoHo would launch before him and let him play his best cards, (nigh on all of them!) hoping like Latham he would cock up then all he had to do was come in with the ‘responsible thing to do’ for us the world and known universe! Now he must’ve seen that one coming, sadly, for JoHo he didn’t… or maybe he did and had no choice.. wedged?
64- Edward
The blokes at the CFMEU are one in a million. Literally if you got one million union members in a stadium somewhere there could only be one Joe MacDonald and one Kevin Reynolds- actually thats two in a million.
Using them or their comments as an example of all unions is to assume when Mick Malthouse says something on behalf of the collingwood footy club Mark Williams and Kevin Sheedy must have the same attitude. Sounds ridiculous, but it is the basis of the scare campaign.
70 Nuts in K- Please tell us more about the report
Swing Lowe, who’s your nomination for the most attractive man in any Parliament in Australia?
I’m with Lefty E (48), the Dems won’t be missed, for all their pluck in their early days; they leave a recent history of ess aitch eye tee house collusions with the Libs as their legacy. Good riddance.
42 Doctor Because everyone in the real world uses Windows, in spite of what the users of the other two OS think.
No 64
It is none the less interesting, but his economic theory is bogus as history has shown many a time.
BBD @ 79 – but you do admit that the CFMEU is a crap union?
73 I think the shrillness of the Libs today is saying that the ship is sunk and a tsunami is crashing in on them. I can’t remember when they were so excitable. Usually they have a smug, sureness but it is panic attack time for them now.
Adam,
I’m probably not qualified to come to any definite conclusions (given that I’m a heterosexual male).
However, I do recall that John Brogden (now former MP for Pittwater) was in the top 50 sexiest men in some magazine back in 1993. I remember seeing it in the “Stay In Touch” section of the SMH a while back.
Other than that, I’ve got no idea. What’s your nomination, Adam?
83 Chris B – bollocks – even Microsoft uses Linux servers.
Socrates
Agree re Howard and the Senate, if he got back in he can do a lot of harm in six months with total control of the senate.
Fielding is a disappointment, like Joyce all show and no action, only votes against the government when his vote doesn’t count.
Hypocritical too, looks like his preference deals with One Nation and Pauline Hanson could see a second FFP elected in Qld, I put a post on the Qld senate post to show via the ABC calculator how this can happen.
Only good policy Fielding had was a family impact statement, but even though Howard ignored it Fielding stayed loyal when it counted.
I’m logging off thanks for the talk.
The libs are now sunk. Nothing but an earth shattering f#*k up will save them.
All there will be is the scale of the loss. Reckon it will be all over before the WA poll closes.
67 Swing Lowe
You may well be right, as concerns Miss Bishop.
But she’ll still be all right, on the night?
I’d bet.
61 re caption
zzzzz huh? ohhh Hyacinth are you wearing rubber tonight?!!!
My nomination for ALP seats at the moment 100+
Um – what the hell is going on with disendorsed Labor candidates seeking revenge?
First La Trobe:
http://andrewlanderyou.blogspot.com/2007/11/ouch-labor-pains-in-latrobe-as-pargeter.html
Then Cowper:
http://www.smh.com.au/news/National/Nats-want-Labor-investigated-in-Cowper/2007/11/14/1194766776217.html
Any ideas as to how these are going to affect the results in these seats?
84 El
I wouldn’t say that if i were a member- i would be very proud of my union because I would know they would go to any lengths to protect my safety.
I would say they have some very ordinary PR skills and an image problem that reflects badly on other unions trying to prtray a better image.
But i reiterate- Unions are democratic, the leaders are elected and can and will be voted out if the members chose.
That is the thing about the 70% scare campaign- Howards problem is ultimately with democracy, all of these MPs are voted in as politiciancs by voters in a democracy, you shouldn’t undermine that- criticise a candidate selction maybe, but once elected by the people, focus on thier reccord in parliament.
I would like to make remarks about the mental health of the voters who elect Wilson Tuckey in O’Connor, but i must respect thier right to do so.
The democrats deserve the defeat they are getting. With their split Senate tickets, despite their complaining about a coalition senate majority, they are the pinnacle of hypocrisy.
For all their faults, the greens at least are consistent and will actually preference the ALP above the Coalition.
The Lib shift obviously ended at midnight. Perhaps they have run out of money to fund bloggers through the graveyard shift.
Why Dick Adams of course. Now there’s a real man.
If someone can tell me where I cn find pics of MPs, I’m happy to rate them. Lindsay Tanner used to be a fave, but time hasn’t been that kind to him. Oh and he used to be an evil union boss, I think (boo, hiss). Mmmmmmm – power……
Crikey Whitey @ 90,
I think we’d all be shocked if Julie Bishop loses her seat this time around – particularly as she’s in WA.
Whether she sticks around if the Coalition is in Opposition is another matter, of course.