D-day minus 13

• Glenn Milne reports in the Sunday News Limited papers that “definitive” Labor polling “shows voter reaction to Mr Howard’s retirement plans has become a ‘blocker’ to the Coalition’s other campaign messages, devaluing the Government’s promises and policies in all key areas”.

• In the wake of Wednesday’s interest rate rise, much was said of marginal seats suffering high levels of mortgage stress. Nassim Khadem of The Age pointed to a concentration of such seats in the 5 per cent to 10 per cent range in Victoria, including La Trobe, McMillan, Corangamite, Deakin and McEwen. The Sydney Morning Herald noted that affected seats in and around Sydney included Lindsay and Parramatta, now all but written off for the Liberals, along with Dobell, Robertson and Macarthur.

• Michelle Cazzulino of the Daily Telegraph wrote on Wednesday that “confident Labor strategists are predicting an upset victory in Danna Vale’s electorate” of Hughes, held with a margin of 8.5 per cent. Joe Hildebrand of the Daily Telegraph named it with Macarthur and Paterson among seats Labor was targeting “in a strategy to spook the Government and draw precious resources away from a handful of must-win seats” – namely Lindsay, Dobell, Macquarie and Eden-Monaro.

• Dennis Shanahan of The Australian is always good for a dose of cold water. On Wednesday he related suggestions from state front-bencher John Aquilina that “NSW Labor Party polling in marginal seats is not as strong as published polling”. Aquilina would only say that Labor “would win the western suburbs seat of Lindsay and had a chance in Macarthur, Dobell and Eden-Monaro, but he doubted they could pick up more”. Labor’s chances in Bennelong and Wentworth were not rated, and talk of Robertson was dismissed as “a lot of hype”.

• The Coalition has nonetheless targeted Robertson with a promise to repair a section of the Old Pacific Highway at Somersby, which has been closed since a family of five was killed following a road collapse in June. The Newcastle Herald reports that “no dollar figure has been attached to the promise”, but it is expected to be around $10 million.

• In Eden-Monaro, Labor has promised to spend $23 million from Defence Department funds upgrading the road from Queanbeyan to the Joint Operations Command headquarters, which the government stationed in Bungendore in an especially shameless act of marginal seat pork-barrelling. Andrew Fraser of the Canberra Times notes Labor has failed to provide funding for the more dangerous section of the road from Braidwood to Batemans Bay, the business end of which has been redistributed to the almost-safe Liberal seat of Gilmore.

• Tim Colebatch of The Age detects good news for Labor in an enrolment boom in McEwen, La Trobe, Corangamite and McMillan. This is because the increases have been concentrated in the urban areas of these mixed electorates, which are the stronger for Labor. Even bigger increases have been recorded in Bennelong and Wentworth, though the impact here is harder to read. Jenna Price of the Canberra Times also notes a sharp increase in enrolment in the Australian Capital Territory, suggesting this increases the chances of a Greens Senate win at the expense of Liberal incumbent Gary Humphries.

• Andrew Burrell of the Australian Financial Review reports that “the Labor Party has launched a prime-time television advertising blitz aimed at saving the highly marginal Western Australian seat of Cowan, amid mounting fears that the retirement of popular MP Graham Edwards could deliver it to the Coalition”. With further Labor advertising focusing on Stirling, Burrell discerns “a sign that Labor is behind in those seats”, and is conversely confident of gaining Hasluck and retaining Swan and Brand (the latter of which has been the subject of some slightly surprising recent chatter). The report also says “ALP figures privately doubt the veracity” of the recent Westpoll survey showing them trailing in Cowan, Stirling and Hasluck. Those three electorates plus Swan have been the targets of the Perth variations on Liberal marginal seat television ads.

• Michael Bachelard of The Age reports that the Greens decided on Friday to direct preferences to Labor in every Victorian seat, which it has never done before. The decision was apparently made after Lindsay Tanner succeeded in embarrassing the Greens over split-ticket how-to-vote cards being distributed at a pre-poll booth in Menzies, held by bete-noir of the left Kevin Andrews.

• Sam Strutt of the Courier-Mail reports of “polling indicating a huge swing” in the Sunshine Coast seat of Fisher, which Peter Slipper holds for the Liberals on a margin of 11.4 per cent.

• The verdict from the wind chimes merchants of Dobell is in: “Everyone knows when Labor is in unions run the country&#148. Ken Ticehurst remains remarkably media-shy.

• Samantha Maiden of The Australian peruses a Poll Bludger comments thread. All good fun in my view, but the folk at Club Bloggery are not taking it lying down.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,127 comments on “D-day minus 13”

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  2. Rupert is at it in NSW as well. Every political article was anti-Labor or pro-Liberal today. Steve Price got into the act as well just to prove how “objective” his Garrett gaffe effort was. Pure piffal.

  3. Maybe we should close down these sites, if the Tories ever got the idea that you should base decisions on objective, scientific data, and try not to let your own bias and wants cloud your judgement, they may get back into Government before the next 4 term cycle.

  5. Isabella, Piers is more biased than Marr. Marr has been known to criticise Rudd and Labor. Piers has never criticised anything that Howard has ever done, ever. Moreover he twists every single point to try and turn it into a positive for Howard. This morning it was agreeing with the comments of Latham to suit the purposes of an attack on Rudd.

    P.S. he is a fat selfish pig – he is the idiot savant, only without the occasional brilliance.

  6. Yeah right Jai-mei.

    The Liberal Party sees talented women promoted on the basis of merit.

    The Labor Party promotes women through quotas and strong-arm tactics from the laughable Emily’s List and Australia’s most incompetent premier ever Joan Kirner.

    Every woman who wins preselection wins on a level playing field, on the basis of merit.

    Liberals – Julie Bishop, Helen Coonan, Sophie Mirabella, Connie Fierravanti-Wells, etc.

    Labor – Sharon Grierson, Nicole Cornes, Kelly Hoare, Julie Owens, etc.

    Labor women rely upon the men to change their Party rules and give them a seat in Parliament – when it suits them.

    Go back to your quotas Jai-Mei – you’re probably so incompetent, so useless and so clueless you’ll need it.

  7. You know, in China, one of the reformists came up with this idea to mimic press freedom: papers may criticise govt policy, as long as they do so no more than 20% of the time. The other 80% must be fawning and appreciative of the politburo’s wisdom.

    Im starting to wonder whether the Chinese press isnt more independent of government than News Ltd.

  8. I’m not sure why I’m biting, but anyway…

    Isabella, the problem is not with having a rightist analyst on the show. This adds confrontation and makes for interesting viewing. Personally I have no problem with any of the right figures and quite enjoy the Bolter’s devils advocacy on there, particularly of late.

    The problem with Piers is that he is out of his depth, intellectually. When questioned by Taylor this morning on a host of positions at one time his response was ‘well thats what I think’. This isn’t highschool, I don’t really want to know what Piers just thinks without him being able to back it up. Add to this his ‘those women’ comments, trying to use Latham as a credible witness for his arguments (and I could go on) is just annoying. He is unable to move with the sweep of any arguments, and so tries to obfuscate.

    I have no problem with the general structure of the panels Insiders has, but I just think that Piers aint up to the task.

  9. Basil Fawlty

    Matt Price is fighting for his life at the moment and I, like many are worried and wishing the best for him.

    Caroline from the Oz informed me last week.

    I miss his blog.

  11. Just a note re this morning’s ‘Insiders’. The vox pop segment purported to show three male stable hands at Flemington racecourse. The guy on the left was none other than trainer Mark Kavanagh. While eagerly pushing the Howard/Costello barrow, he referred to the amount of champagne drunk during the Melbourne carnival, some of it do doubt by him and his owners.

    Kavanagh’s Melbourne spring horses included Devil Moon, Lady Madonna and Maldivian. Mixed fortunes with Maldivian but great results with the two mares.

    I would not have thought it wise for Kavanagh to project such a partisan tory viewpoint. He may, wrongly, think that all owners of ‘good’ horses vote Liberal!

  13. Such vitriol Isabella! Just a tip: I’m not sure that personal insults hurled across the net to people you don’t know is strengthening your arguments.

  14. Phil,

    I get the Sunday Mail delivered but if this is what they are going to produce next week as well, well they can shove it up their #@!K and I will go and get the Sunday Age instead.

    Absolutely, disgraceful.

    And since when has a focus group of 7 been a representative sample. I can only hope that the ALP is elected in a landslide and then they can together with assistance of the minor parties give payback in spades.

    What has our media become?

    On another topic, went and saw Lions for Lambs yesterday – good film.

  16. Oh Isabella, get over it. So Julie Bishop’s relationship with Senator Ross Lightfoot had nothing to do with her getting preselection?

    I just love the Liberal’s selective presentation of the facts. Yes, trot out the ‘independent’ woment to show you’re a party of opportunity.

    Put your Liberal talking points elsewhere sweetheart.

  22. Isabella @ 155 says “The Liberal Party sees talented women promoted on the basis of merit.”

    Yep, even the deliberately barren ones …

  23. 85
    Isabella Says:
    November 11th, 2007 at 10:23 am

    And does anyone here complain about David Marr’s blatant cheering and propaganda for the ALP?

    Nope.

    Well, Isabella, let me help you since you’ve seen fit to throw out an accusation with backing it up with specifics.

    It’s not about which side of politics they support, but about the soundness of their arguments. David Marr too often can’t contain expressing his contempt for Piers through facial expressions, laughter and sarcasm. This only enables Piers to further indulge in absurdities like, “Rudd’s campaign is completely hollow.” Lenore Taylor repeatedly nailed Piers’ nonsensical comments through specific rebuttals backed up by relevant, valid evidence.

    David Marr does not seem to put in as much hard yakka as one saw on “Media Watch” (the program’s staff must have done most of it), which undermines his effectiveness on the “Offsiders”, so I would place him on a par with Bolters for putting forward compelling viewpoints. Nevertheless, both Marr and Bolt avoid indulging in the sort of wildly spurious remarks which Piers grinds out like putrid sausages. Compared to Piers, even Milne is a paragon of credible argument.

  24. Favourite Insiders Moments:

    George M in around Sept 2006: I think the australian public may be about to turn their attention to the opposition and consider what they have to offer, they may stop listening to the government. (or words to that effect)

    a remark that was loudly derided by Bolt at the time as absurd, (prosperity, record this lowest that, PMs approval ratings etc). Even Barrie suggested it was “a big call”.

    David Marr to Piers Ackerman: leaning forward with palms open “Piers, why do you want to waste everyone’s time?”

    Insiders generally spews forth the latest accepted version of the official public narrative, (anything Paul Kelly wants to say), but the George M remark and other gems show the capacity of some panelists to cut through the guff.

  25. Isabella @ 155: an intriguing list of super competent Lib women. Clearly you apply unique criteria to your definition of such a category. Julie Bishop has probably been the wroist education minister in at least a decade; Helen Coonan has absolutely no idea about her portfolio and seems to be mostly concerned with handing out vast funds to SingTel; Sophie Mirabella is an apprentice attack dog, and intemperate to boot; and ‘Connie’ Fierravanti-Wells is motivated by a paranoid hatred of the ABC which does not augur well for her mental health. In my humble opinion. And please, if you dislike us all so much, could you just nick off?

    Ta.

  26. Don’t worry Scribe, trainers like Kavanagh are scared sh*t that if Labor wins they might have to pay their stable hands something that may even resemble a decent wage.

  27. We had another reminder of the determined bias that David Marr puts out, this time on the apology question again.

    Just minutes before Lenore T had given quite a good analogy of the two uses of the word “sorry”, using a tale of the dog next door that had been run over.

    Minutes later, David Marr is trying to say Howard is the only person to have come up with that distinction, no proper thinking person would make that distinction etc etc.

    I should listen to Lenore more often

  28. Has anyone here had a look at the seat of Ryan in Brisbane, 10% margin to Libs but has swung before at a by-election from memory. Sportingbet has Labor at $3.05, might get me some of that methinks!

  29. Isabella, You say that Coonan and Bishop were promoted on merit! Two more profoundly incompetent ministers have never existed. If they are the best the Libs can do, it is obvious why the Coalition are doomed.

    Sophie Mirabella and Connie Fierravanti-Wells, what pathetic excuses for human beings. Bigoted, far right wing shrews. After the election they will be promoted too, no doubt. Their more obvious presence will just make the Coalition even more unelectable. Eleven long years of appalling waste of Australia’s potential are about to finish. The coalition will be a rump and the Libs that are left will be dominated by the far right wing trash, like Alex Hawke, and your favourite ladies. No recipe for a comeback there. They can’t think straight, and their inflexibility and complete lack of empathy with normal human beings will see the Federal Liberal Party sink to the pathetic level of the state NSW and Queensland branches.

    You and Piers deserve each other.

    cheers,

    Alan H

  32. You really have to give the News Ltd journos credit!

    They may all be a pack of morons with no sense of reality and very little knowledge in economics or politics, but they are all OLYMPIC WORLD CLASS ARS LICKERS.

    I wonder which one would win the gold medal?

  35. Anyway, I was interested in the economic stuff Swan got onto this morning, particulary thre important argument about wages and productivity.

    the colaition takes the view (as Howard and Costello have indeed clearly expressed from time to time) that productivity is somehow boosted by reducing the share of one factor of production (labour) while maintaining constant output. In other words, cutting wages.

    However, the problem we have at the moment is that inflation is rising largely because our capacity to produce is constrained by limited capacity. We can reduce inflationary by reducing aggregate demand via fiscal retrenchment and wage deregulation, or we can increase productivity and thus improve capacity. The former implies that people at the bottom of the skills pile will do quite badly but doesn’t guarantee that wages (in the aggregate) will be restrained – people with skills in demand will be able to demand whatever price they like.

    Productivity improvements, on the other hand, particulary if they involve infrastructure investment (broadband, railways, etc) and eduication and re-training will increase the economy’s capacity to reduce inflationary pressure w/out requiring that the low skilled get screwed.

    This is the Labor message. Simple really. Swan I think actually gets this but it propbably needs to be spelt out to folk like B. Cassidy et al, so that they may utilise their unique skills as communicators and transmit the message to the people. Am not holding breath waiting for this to occur.

  37. A personal highlight of the election campaign so far has become Miranda Devine’s interview with John and Janette (Sun Herald, Nov 11). Janette and John can both reassure us that Rudd knows nothing about economics. here’s the punchy par from a deep question from the incisive Miranda….”One thing we know is that he doesn’t know anything about economics,” said Mrs Howard, in an interview at Kirribilli House on Friday, alongside her husband of 37 years.

    “No, he knows nothing about economics,” said Mr Howard. “He’s very uncomfortable whenever he gets questioned about economics, going back to the famous [June] interview with [ABC Radio’s] Chris Uhlmann about productivity.
    No follow up question about their proof for this statement.
    How about this… read it and understand why Devine gets the access to the Pm and Janette that she does. They know she will toe the line. Butt Monkey is what the American’s call it I think.
    [But] far and away the best campaigner I’ve ever faced was Hawke, who was highly intelligent; a far more intelligent man, in my opinion, than [Paul] Keating.”

    The Prime Minister was speaking after a lunchtime outing to Penrith Plaza, in the marginal western suburbs seat of Lindsay, the heart of Howard battler territory.

    Walking through shopping malls, trying to make friends, might not be everyone’s cup of tea but, for Mr and Mrs Howard, it’s a highlight of the election campaign, giving them the pulse of the electorate, outside polls that stubbornly point Labor’s way.

    “We quite enjoy going through shopping centres,” Mr Howard said.

    “People are nice,” Mrs Howard said, sitting beside him in their harbourside living room.

    “Yes, people are nice,” he said. “You just meet such an extraordinary range and you can get a sense of what is the mood of people.”

    Blah Blah Blah its hysterical The Chaser couldn’t have done it better.
    People are nice yes people are nice.
    Just one final point…”their harbourside living room”. ???/ Tha’ts our harbourside living room which Howard misappropriated from us. We should all be there on November 25 with the moving vans to make sure he doesn’t stay a minute longer.

  38. RGee at post 119, many thanks for the Orang-Utan clip, it was bloody hilarious.

    I think the election has just entered the Twilight Zone, folks: Howard is now throwing pork at monkeys.

    It’s bizarre.

    The guys in the white coats with the medications can’t be too far away now.

    They should have used the old Tom Lehrer song “They’re Coming To Take Me Away, Ha Ha” as a musical background to the clip IMHO.

  39. BB @170, lol.

    But EVERYTHING is secretly centralised around scaper, didn’t you know 😉
    it’s all “project business” 😉

  41. Piers is going to be up the creek if the ALP win after what he pulled on Rudd a few weeks back.

    It’s not surprising, therefore, to see him gunning hard at this point in the campaign. He has everything to lose.

  42. Hyacinth will certainly be dragged out on the 25th kicking and screaming, HH. Kirrbilli Removals will be there, and it won’t be pretty.

    Just watch her taping prawn heads to all the desks, leaving the water running and other assorted tricks as she leaves. She wont be going quietly.

    I just pity the residents of Wollstonecraft — “there goes the neighbourhood”…

  43. Just listening to Insiders on News Radio. Lenore Taylor and David Marr have strong views but occasionally surrender a point or two, but Piers on the other hand wants to win every single argument. He doesn’t give on any subject no matter how illogical his view. That’s what makes him a bad journalist, his inability to give in to logic and fairness on even the smallest point.

  45. “A KEY minister has dismissed as a Labor lie claims the Howard government didn’t win a mandate for its industrial relations (IR) reforms at the last election.

    Finance Minister Nick Minchin today said the government had set out its plans before the last election for labour reforms including abolition of unfair dismissal laws.”

    I don’t think that will play…. It’s a bit “oh, didn’t you read the fine print?”

  46. So when do the Howards need to get out of Kirribilli House, assuming a loss? Is there a precedent here? How long will they be given?

  48. Looks like being a torrid two weeks, with the Murdoch press once again barracking heavily for the conservatives. No doubt there will be editorials in every Murdoch paper the day before the election,as usual, explaining why voters should vote for the retiree rather than Kevin Rudd.
    Once again it will have zero effect on voters’ intentions just as it did in the last NSW state election.
    It might just do Murdoch’s interests in Australia some damage, however, as they will find Kevin Rudd no pushover after the election.
    He will be exceedingly tough.
    The biggest negative for the Coalition is John Howard himself and that’s why he will be targetted in the last two weeks.
    Why would Australians vote for someone who is about to retire?
    It makes no sense.
    They can’t be sure either that Peter Costello would take over. It could well be the egregious Tony Abbott. Who really knows?
    Just who would be Treasurer? If Peter Costello were indeed to PM it wouldn’t be him.
    Australians are being asked to vote for a pig in a poke.
    Add the WorkChoice fiasco, no action on global warming, squandered surpluses and so on to the equation and clearly the electorate would be sensible to vote for a new team to clear up the mess and provide ongoing, not temporary, leadership for the country.
    Right wing commentators fearful of losing their power base can froth at the mouth all they like but it will have no effect on Australian voters.

  49. Well Insiders was the usual shite. Why do they bother with Marr and P.ackerman? Both are fighting old fights.

    Piers and his bloody “centralised wage fixing”! You d*ckhead, the ALP got rid of it, why would they bring it back? As they would say in the arny, he’s a waste of rations.

    And Marr, well I agree with a lot of what he says, but there’s little point to his being there. He hates Howard so much, they should wait till Howard is gone before inviting him back.

    But, oh Lenore…

  50. @195 Pancho

    Well the bunker will be cleared out by the russians but before that Abbot and Dwoner have orders to take the Howards out into a shallow pit in their backyard and set them on fire……….then give them cianide.

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