D-day minus 13

• Glenn Milne reports in the Sunday News Limited papers that “definitive” Labor polling “shows voter reaction to Mr Howard’s retirement plans has become a ‘blocker’ to the Coalition’s other campaign messages, devaluing the Government’s promises and policies in all key areas”.

• In the wake of Wednesday’s interest rate rise, much was said of marginal seats suffering high levels of mortgage stress. Nassim Khadem of The Age pointed to a concentration of such seats in the 5 per cent to 10 per cent range in Victoria, including La Trobe, McMillan, Corangamite, Deakin and McEwen. The Sydney Morning Herald noted that affected seats in and around Sydney included Lindsay and Parramatta, now all but written off for the Liberals, along with Dobell, Robertson and Macarthur.

• Michelle Cazzulino of the Daily Telegraph wrote on Wednesday that “confident Labor strategists are predicting an upset victory in Danna Vale’s electorate” of Hughes, held with a margin of 8.5 per cent. Joe Hildebrand of the Daily Telegraph named it with Macarthur and Paterson among seats Labor was targeting “in a strategy to spook the Government and draw precious resources away from a handful of must-win seats” – namely Lindsay, Dobell, Macquarie and Eden-Monaro.

• Dennis Shanahan of The Australian is always good for a dose of cold water. On Wednesday he related suggestions from state front-bencher John Aquilina that “NSW Labor Party polling in marginal seats is not as strong as published polling”. Aquilina would only say that Labor “would win the western suburbs seat of Lindsay and had a chance in Macarthur, Dobell and Eden-Monaro, but he doubted they could pick up more”. Labor’s chances in Bennelong and Wentworth were not rated, and talk of Robertson was dismissed as “a lot of hype”.

• The Coalition has nonetheless targeted Robertson with a promise to repair a section of the Old Pacific Highway at Somersby, which has been closed since a family of five was killed following a road collapse in June. The Newcastle Herald reports that “no dollar figure has been attached to the promise”, but it is expected to be around $10 million.

• In Eden-Monaro, Labor has promised to spend $23 million from Defence Department funds upgrading the road from Queanbeyan to the Joint Operations Command headquarters, which the government stationed in Bungendore in an especially shameless act of marginal seat pork-barrelling. Andrew Fraser of the Canberra Times notes Labor has failed to provide funding for the more dangerous section of the road from Braidwood to Batemans Bay, the business end of which has been redistributed to the almost-safe Liberal seat of Gilmore.

• Tim Colebatch of The Age detects good news for Labor in an enrolment boom in McEwen, La Trobe, Corangamite and McMillan. This is because the increases have been concentrated in the urban areas of these mixed electorates, which are the stronger for Labor. Even bigger increases have been recorded in Bennelong and Wentworth, though the impact here is harder to read. Jenna Price of the Canberra Times also notes a sharp increase in enrolment in the Australian Capital Territory, suggesting this increases the chances of a Greens Senate win at the expense of Liberal incumbent Gary Humphries.

• Andrew Burrell of the Australian Financial Review reports that “the Labor Party has launched a prime-time television advertising blitz aimed at saving the highly marginal Western Australian seat of Cowan, amid mounting fears that the retirement of popular MP Graham Edwards could deliver it to the Coalition”. With further Labor advertising focusing on Stirling, Burrell discerns “a sign that Labor is behind in those seats”, and is conversely confident of gaining Hasluck and retaining Swan and Brand (the latter of which has been the subject of some slightly surprising recent chatter). The report also says “ALP figures privately doubt the veracity” of the recent Westpoll survey showing them trailing in Cowan, Stirling and Hasluck. Those three electorates plus Swan have been the targets of the Perth variations on Liberal marginal seat television ads.

• Michael Bachelard of The Age reports that the Greens decided on Friday to direct preferences to Labor in every Victorian seat, which it has never done before. The decision was apparently made after Lindsay Tanner succeeded in embarrassing the Greens over split-ticket how-to-vote cards being distributed at a pre-poll booth in Menzies, held by bete-noir of the left Kevin Andrews.

• Sam Strutt of the Courier-Mail reports of “polling indicating a huge swing” in the Sunshine Coast seat of Fisher, which Peter Slipper holds for the Liberals on a margin of 11.4 per cent.

• The verdict from the wind chimes merchants of Dobell is in: “Everyone knows when Labor is in unions run the country&#148. Ken Ticehurst remains remarkably media-shy.

• Samantha Maiden of The Australian peruses a Poll Bludger comments thread. All good fun in my view, but the folk at Club Bloggery are not taking it lying down.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,127 comments on “D-day minus 13”

Comments Page 3 of 23
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  1. Can’t wait to watch Insiders (I’m over here in Perth – 30 mins to go!) What in the hell does Ackerman do to justify his continuing employment? I mean, even the Bolter occasionally adopts a sensible compassionate position on issues (cf. Sudanese immigrants) all that fat fraud does is parrot Liberal PR releases or spread looney tunes conspiracy theories. Lets hope Madam Lash gets thrown off the ABC Board after the Ruddslide, maybe we’ll then see some balance

  2. The only way that the Coalition can get back in the race from here is if the major focus of the campaign shifts to Kevin Rudd – who is he, what does he really stand for? In other words, try to challenge the basic assumptions built into the decisions made by hundreds of thousands of voters to shift to Rudd.

    The problem for the Coalition is that this will be nigh on impossible to achieve given that Labor is about to turn up the heat on the whole question of Howard’s looming retirement and the handover to Costello.

    This sums up the enormity of the Coalition issue: In a contest that is about leaders more than anything else Rudd can never be the issue when the Coalition leadership outlook is so messy.

  3. Piers makes even Andrew Bolt look reasonable by comparison. Bolt sometimes criticises the Gov’t over individual issues and acknowledges that they’re going to lose. Piers lives in a parallel universe where, if Howard was caught sacrificing babies to Baal, a justification could be spun.

  4. Taronga Zoo is in the seat of North Sydney. Maybe the Rodent is trying to help out lard arse Hockey?
    The Liberals have reached a low ebb when they are shamelessly exploiting a 10 year old boy with cerebal palsey.

  9. @106 Pancho

    No Everytime someone with half a brain tunes in and just sees Ackerman Labor’s primary vote goes up %10. When Ackerman flatulates throuh his mouth, Labors primary vote goes up 70%.

    That’s not me talking thats science.

  10. I have sent a complaint to the ABC this morning about the Insiders panel.

    There is no point having Ackerman on there. He offers nothing in insightful commentary and simply parrots the government line. David Marr isn’t much better, he always says the opposite.

    Can I suggest that everyone fires off a complaint to the ABC about the panel make-up, and requesting some more impartial commentators (such as Lenore Taylor)?

    Here’s mine:

    I’d like to complain about the composition of the panel on Insiders.

    Could you please explain to me why Piers Ackerman is on the Insiders panel?

    Piers is so partisan in his approach to this program that his “insight” is completely devoid of any value whatsoever. Every time he opens his mouth it is to cheerlead for the Howard government.

    I would contrast Ackerman with your other regular right-leaning commentator Andrew Bolt, who does *not* automatically parrot the government line.

    I tune into Insiders for insightful commentary, but Ackerman’s response to any given issue is entirely predictable, and so he offers nothing but irritation to me as a viewer. Please replace him with more frequent appearances by Andrew Bolt, or find an alternative right-leaning commentator who actually has some interesting points to make.

    Sure, Ackerman is “balanced out” by the left-leaning David Marr, but why should I have to listen to either of them? Why do we only get *one* impartial panelist to listen to who has something intelligent to say and is not entirely predictable?

    Finally, I would like to commend the selection of impartial and insightful panelists such as Lenore Taylor, George Megalogenis, and Matt Price. Why can’t you have 3 impartial panelists, instead of only 1 most of the time?

    Please, please, please get rid of Ackerman. It’s like listening to talk-back radio rather than interesting analysis.

    Otherwise I will be switching off.

    You can submit your comments at the following link:

    http://abc.net.au/insiders/contact.htm

  12. Andrew Bolt is loony as well. His reason why the Iraq war has not been given a run this election campaign is that the war has been won by the ‘coalition’ and Iraqis are now in control of their country.

    Akers and Bolt – from another planet, but I know not which one.

  13. I cant find a link to John the Orangutan anyone got it? Quick cause its Bound to be pulled very soon once they realise the enormity of their miscalcuation, Ive got to downlaod it before then….

  15. Isabella – David marr is a recognised gay, leftie so it wouldn’t be surprising if he supported ALP policy. He is an accomplished author who has highlighted some of more disgraceful behaviour of the Howard government.

  17. Howard and the orangutans have two things in common: they are both endangered species, and both of their habitats are being destroyed.
    I’m happy to help save those adorable monkeys, but my sympathy doesn’t extend to one hasbeen Rodent and his bitch of a wife.

  20. Ashley @ 110
    I understand that Matt Price is unwell and on leave, once again an excellent commentator, hope he is on the road to recovery.

  22. I loved Piers line that Latham was like an idiot savant, he had some brilliant areas despite the rest. The rejoinder from Lenore-yeah the ideas you agree with. He is a fat moron. PS Why are so many Howard Huggers in the media morbidly obese-Akerman, Shanahan, Milne, Kelly?

  27. No, it is still there, just had a look. Poor bloody kid, enough to give him nightmares and flashbacks for the rest of his life having a giant rat burst in like that 🙂

  28. Labor will be lucky to win any new seats in SA if the Murdoch press continues in the vein of today’s Sunday Mail.

    1. The front page splash is the old beat-up about how Julia Gillard’s former lover defrauded the AWU. The scam is explained at length on Page 4 with lots of innuendo.

    2. Page 5 leads with “Doubt over Rudd as PM” – a Galaxy focus group’s finding in Kingston. Reports from a more favourable focus group in Makin are buried low in the story. Makin Lib candidate Bob Day is pictured shaking the hand of a supporter.

    3. Nick Xenophon is derided on Page 7 for his alleged lack of action in trying to save the Murray. (Also on Page 7, Kevin Rudd warns of new IR plan and is pictured with supporters. This is the only positive thing for Labor in the paper).

    4. An extraordinary editorial occupies Page 41 – “Why Mr X does not deserve your vote”. Obviously Rupert doesn’t want the Coalition to lose its grip on the Senate.

    5. Glenn Milne on Page 42 tells “Why Rudd is engaged in a giant ruse”.

    6. Piers Ackermann on Page 43 invokes Mark Latham and ‘exposes’ how Rudd’s using “phony crises … to scare votes from punters”. With old pic of Rudd and atham.

    Almost wall-to-wall sleaze and smear.

    1

  32. If the “orangutan kid vid” doesn’t cut through, the next step might be a story with a sombre Howard peering in to the camera saying “Today, I lost a good mate”.

  35. How thick are some people?

    The programme from day one has had a left-winger, an ‘independent’ and a mainstream media representative. Quite rightly it makes the programme more entertaining and interesting than three left-winger bed wetters carrying on about rubbish like the Tampa for the millionith time.

    So today:

    David Marr was on the crappy show because he is the token left-wing journo.

    Piers was on the show because he is the token mainstream journalist.

    Lenore Taylor was on the show because she is meant to be the token ‘independent.’ Which is in fact a usual ABC furphy as Taylor is as independent as its former ALP Press Secretary broken down host B. Cassidy.

    Get over it. Mainstream Australia tolerates the mincing, sanctimonious twaddle, bitchiness and bias of David Marr. Put up with Piers or turn on Video Hits.

  37. God the Samantha Maiden piece boiled my blood. How dare she slag us all off as a bunch of Labor-loving pessimists…she’s analysed a Poll Bludger comments thread in exactly the same way the GG “analyses” the newspolls themselves: find a tiny little bit of hope for the govt. (in this case a couple of nervous commenters) in amongst hundreds of other indicators which all point to an ALP landslide. Suddenly, we, apparently a cohesive community, are collectively “calling a comeback for the government”. I’m really hope someone labours the point with the Murdoch press in the weeks after the election when Labor wins between 85 and 95 seats, they are proven completely and utterly wrong, and the Neilsen polls, the ABC with Antony, William, Simon J and Possum will have all got it roughly right.

  42. The Galaxy research group cracked me up.

    There were seven in the Kingston Group of which 5 said they would support the libs.

    Of those 5, they quote a 59 year old who is clearly in Howards demographic. A 49 year old, who is bordering on that demographic. A 32 year old nurse who identifies herself as being conservative by nature.

    In the Makin group they quote a 59 year old retiree and a 51 year old who says he has always voted liberal. Yet the article says that the survey was of swinging voters.

    So the “swinging voters” survey was stacking with Howards demographic, including many rusted on supporters.

  44. #128 Murdoch may have to face his own impotence this election. None of that will make the slightest difference in SA.

    My guess is new lts will get wind of their newfound irrelevance before the 24th, and change sides to cover their arses, and muddy the waters.

  45. I think we know what to expect from the Murdoch press for the next 2 weeks.
    Why on earth did I ever think Rupert might give Rudd his support?

  47. I want to know what Isabella and Tabitha think about being called “Labor loving pessimists”. Samantha Maiden said it, so it must be true.

  48. Women like Tabitha (hating their lives and themselves) drag the rest of us down and belong in the Liberal party.

    Strong independent women like me who don’t depend on men to define us are Labor ‘can do’ chicks.

  49. That’s basically it, the bitterness of Tab and Isabella is mainly directed at themselves, though they’ll never have the self esteem to be able to realise that.

  50. Phil @ 128

    “2. Page 5 leads with “Doubt over Rudd as PM” – a Galaxy focus group’s finding in Kingston. Reports from a more favourable focus group in Makin are buried low in the story. Makin Lib candidate Bob Day is pictured shaking the hand of a supporter.”

    This headline is based on the outcome of a focus group of 7 people in Makin & 7 in Kingston – hardly a reasonable sample & clearly out of line with the results of the polls with much larger sample sizes.

    Is this blatant political bias or just incompetent journalism? Either way, this type of headline should not be published.

    Anyone in SA should write to the editor demanding better.

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