D-day minus 13

• Glenn Milne reports in the Sunday News Limited papers that “definitive” Labor polling “shows voter reaction to Mr Howard’s retirement plans has become a ‘blocker’ to the Coalition’s other campaign messages, devaluing the Government’s promises and policies in all key areas”.

• In the wake of Wednesday’s interest rate rise, much was said of marginal seats suffering high levels of mortgage stress. Nassim Khadem of The Age pointed to a concentration of such seats in the 5 per cent to 10 per cent range in Victoria, including La Trobe, McMillan, Corangamite, Deakin and McEwen. The Sydney Morning Herald noted that affected seats in and around Sydney included Lindsay and Parramatta, now all but written off for the Liberals, along with Dobell, Robertson and Macarthur.

• Michelle Cazzulino of the Daily Telegraph wrote on Wednesday that “confident Labor strategists are predicting an upset victory in Danna Vale’s electorate” of Hughes, held with a margin of 8.5 per cent. Joe Hildebrand of the Daily Telegraph named it with Macarthur and Paterson among seats Labor was targeting “in a strategy to spook the Government and draw precious resources away from a handful of must-win seats” – namely Lindsay, Dobell, Macquarie and Eden-Monaro.

• Dennis Shanahan of The Australian is always good for a dose of cold water. On Wednesday he related suggestions from state front-bencher John Aquilina that “NSW Labor Party polling in marginal seats is not as strong as published polling”. Aquilina would only say that Labor “would win the western suburbs seat of Lindsay and had a chance in Macarthur, Dobell and Eden-Monaro, but he doubted they could pick up more”. Labor’s chances in Bennelong and Wentworth were not rated, and talk of Robertson was dismissed as “a lot of hype”.

• The Coalition has nonetheless targeted Robertson with a promise to repair a section of the Old Pacific Highway at Somersby, which has been closed since a family of five was killed following a road collapse in June. The Newcastle Herald reports that “no dollar figure has been attached to the promise”, but it is expected to be around $10 million.

• In Eden-Monaro, Labor has promised to spend $23 million from Defence Department funds upgrading the road from Queanbeyan to the Joint Operations Command headquarters, which the government stationed in Bungendore in an especially shameless act of marginal seat pork-barrelling. Andrew Fraser of the Canberra Times notes Labor has failed to provide funding for the more dangerous section of the road from Braidwood to Batemans Bay, the business end of which has been redistributed to the almost-safe Liberal seat of Gilmore.

• Tim Colebatch of The Age detects good news for Labor in an enrolment boom in McEwen, La Trobe, Corangamite and McMillan. This is because the increases have been concentrated in the urban areas of these mixed electorates, which are the stronger for Labor. Even bigger increases have been recorded in Bennelong and Wentworth, though the impact here is harder to read. Jenna Price of the Canberra Times also notes a sharp increase in enrolment in the Australian Capital Territory, suggesting this increases the chances of a Greens Senate win at the expense of Liberal incumbent Gary Humphries.

• Andrew Burrell of the Australian Financial Review reports that “the Labor Party has launched a prime-time television advertising blitz aimed at saving the highly marginal Western Australian seat of Cowan, amid mounting fears that the retirement of popular MP Graham Edwards could deliver it to the Coalition”. With further Labor advertising focusing on Stirling, Burrell discerns “a sign that Labor is behind in those seats”, and is conversely confident of gaining Hasluck and retaining Swan and Brand (the latter of which has been the subject of some slightly surprising recent chatter). The report also says “ALP figures privately doubt the veracity” of the recent Westpoll survey showing them trailing in Cowan, Stirling and Hasluck. Those three electorates plus Swan have been the targets of the Perth variations on Liberal marginal seat television ads.

• Michael Bachelard of The Age reports that the Greens decided on Friday to direct preferences to Labor in every Victorian seat, which it has never done before. The decision was apparently made after Lindsay Tanner succeeded in embarrassing the Greens over split-ticket how-to-vote cards being distributed at a pre-poll booth in Menzies, held by bete-noir of the left Kevin Andrews.

• Sam Strutt of the Courier-Mail reports of “polling indicating a huge swing” in the Sunshine Coast seat of Fisher, which Peter Slipper holds for the Liberals on a margin of 11.4 per cent.

• The verdict from the wind chimes merchants of Dobell is in: “Everyone knows when Labor is in unions run the country&#148. Ken Ticehurst remains remarkably media-shy.

• Samantha Maiden of The Australian peruses a Poll Bludger comments thread. All good fun in my view, but the folk at Club Bloggery are not taking it lying down.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,127 comments on “D-day minus 13”

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  1. The Barry Cassidy’s ABC Insiders panel this morning has Piers Ackerman, David Marr and Lenore Taylor from the Australian Fin. Review.

    Before that, they had a “panel” of three “typical ordinary” working blokes from Flemington Race Course, with 2 of them strongly in favour of Howard. You can’t say the ABC isn’t doing it’s best to support Howard in any sneaky way possible.

    Cassidy also gave Swan an extra tough interview to make doubly sure his program won’t be axed if Howard is returned. Piers is following up some of Barry’s key attack points now in the panel discussion.

    Paul Kelly, despite being Murdoch media, was mostly being even-handed in his analysis, so he’s the “Good Cop” to Piers’ “Bad Cop” I guess.

  3. I live in Fisher & it’s primed for a big swing. Slipper (ex Joh for pm) is invisible & there is a high profile FM breakfast announcer running as an independent.
    The seat has lost tory Buderim & gained the Glasshouse Mountains hinterland which is angry over equine flu. Kawana/Caloundra is full of young mortgaged families. The council amalgamation is a non-event with Caloundra & Maroochy in favour of it. If the ALP runs 3rd, Slippery might get the boot.

  4. Dear Samantha

    Further to your article entitled ‘Blogged down in pessimism of the Left’ I provide this confession to you.

    Firstly I will observe that my understanding is that you would not have been responsible for the title. Which is a little bit silly, as unhelpful as the old left – right tags are if you are left leaning with strong conviction you left the labor party in the 1980’s for pastures more green and less central.

    Oh and your first sentence identifies us correctly as ‘labor loving pessimists’, the word infested is a little bit unnecessary, a little bit unkind and the implied comparison to lice a little bit hurtful. But we pessimists are a tough lot. Speaking about being a tough lot we wake to yet another sparkling, high quality bit of journalism from your publisher.

    “Early editions of the Sunday Telegraph contained an allegation that Ms Gillard had incorporated funds used by Mr Wilson.

    The Sunday Telegraph acknowledges that this allegation is entirely untrue. This error was made by The Sunday Telegraph.”

    This disclaimer wasn’t even at the top of the story, and the story above still went as far as it could to link Ms Gillard through a couple of quite silly smears to the wrong doing of a former lover or partner.

    Oh and did you note that the wrong doing appeared to have been discovered in 1995, that is quite a long time ago Sam. So it is a very very old, very very weak, and when your publisher first published it very very wrong story. But we are not surprised us ‘labor loving pessimists’ we see this kind or brilliant accurate and important journalism about Her Majesty’s opposition all the time.

    We have even come to accept that your publisher will not publish a suggestion the Government is involved in actual misuse of power: why would it Crikey does that. We know Mr Milne, named as the writer of today’s brilliant, relevant and well researched piece holds a special love and respect for Crikey and wouldn’t try and compete in their space.

    We do note that Crikey actually has a suggested wrong or misuse of power by the Government in their stories, whereas your publisher seems quite content with ancient stories of someone else’s wrong and a couple of vague proximity smears to Her Majesty’s opposition.

    But then like Crikey your publisher can’t be expected to be better than its sources and it is apparent the Government dirt-unit is functioning about as well as the rest of the Government, but then again your publisher considers the Government to be functioning well so surely can’t be blamed for publishing weak, irrelevant and even wrong stories.

    It is ironic that this mornings smear is still a desperate link ‘through Ms Gillard’s law firm’ because that old legal excuse, that a lawyer is only as good as her instructions seems to have a significantly poignant application to your publisher this morning.

    But I digress we ‘labor lovinig pessimists’ are a tough lot and are used to this kind of situation.

    Although I would ask you, how does it feel to have all my discussion so far based on a story credited to someone else? Your story as our beloved PB points out is a bit of harmless fun and this mornings effort is a serious article (although originally wrong) trying to directly impact voters away from the labor party during an election. How could I possibly be so unfair as to try and discuss your efforts through focusing on a completely unrelated article in a newspaper on a different day? Well may you ask.

    But Sam there is a sentence of yours I did want to question. I know it was just a bit of fun, and when I read it I chuckled. But really you have summed up the situation for us ‘labor loving pessimists’, well. You have two almost perfect sentences.

    The first:

    “Each Newspoll is greeted with fear, trepidation, excitement and furious reinterpretation. The Australian’s analysis of the result is always wrong.”

    Enough said really: although this admission should probably have been published by those who have consistently got both the analysis of the actual poll (and their prediction of the ‘narrowing’ in the next poll) wrong all year. It is a bit harsh making you put such a significant admission (yes I know it has been blatantly obvious to anyone reading the work of Bryan, PB or Possum all year but for your publisher still a very significant admission) in your piece of fun.

    The second is:

    “But now the blogs are starting to call that a comeback may be on for the Government – the great fear they have spent the year furiously denying. “
    Now you would know, my dear Sam, that I could not and do not say it is impossible there is a ‘comeback for the Government’ on now, but your research lets you down in two ways. Firstly Bryan spent a lot of time and took a lot of flack for graphing the Government’s comeback, and to defend him, as I did at the time, the numbers did suggest for a period, nid-year, that there might be a Government comeback.

    No no, Sam, stick with me, this is important: while the polling was clearly pointing to a labor landslide, if the numbers were repeated in a poll in a Federal Election, and while your publisher could not conceive of any outcome other than a victoriously returned Government, we ‘labor loving pessimists’ were actually reading and studying the possibility the blind faith of your publisher (blind faith in that it wasn’t just in the absence of evidence to support it, but actually completely contrary to all the evidence available) would be rewarded. And yes we ‘labor loving pessimists’ still fear it – greatly.

    But leaving aside what is happening now as I write, and what will happen over the next two weeks, still a matter of inexpressible fear, you could perhaps have observed that we had nothing at all to deny: there has been NO GOVERNMENT comeback. Oh and yes I know your publisher never noticed the Government was behind until the PM himself gave permission in that well covered ‘annihilation’ talk to the Lib / Nat caucus, but still NO GOVERNMENT comeback, we don’t have to deny something that didn’t happen.
    Finally my dear Sam, a couple of points.

    Firstly Labor needs good female candidates for the next election (win or lose this one) and you will have noticed how consistently I’ve defended Ms Cornes against the ongoing abuse which I consider firmly grounded in sexism and little else. I will defend you too, it is my promise. Yes even as your former publisher tries to humiliate you and ground your reputation and soul into the muck, and even as apparently staunch labor pessimists inexplicably join in this abuse, I will defend you. Probably wont do either of us much good, but there you go, we ‘labor loving pessimists’ are a tough lot.

    Lastly I look forward to you joining us tomorrow night, if are fears are realised with a 51:49 poll you will be able to write a great follow-up, full of humor, which none of us will be able to read through our tears which will last all week. If the narrowing your publisher is so intent on making happening fails, yet again to eventuate you will see a joy and happiness those stuck in the narrow mindset of your publisher have no chance of understanding and you will have a great insight into how to start the post Rudd-slide work with your publisher.

    All my love, yours ever pessimistically
    jas.

  8. Its hard for one who lives in Brisbane and doe’s not live with the advantages of day light saving having to hear the broadcast of political interviews being telegraphed to me & I have to wait an hour to see it myself. It sucks!

  10. So I guess you guys are saying that when I get to see Insiders I will be spending much time (again) hurling abuse at the TV every time Ackerman spews forth his perennial bile.

    Cant wait.

  14. Minchin on Meet The Press this morning.

    He said, with emphasis, that the government wants to be fair to employees. Hence the ‘fairness’ test.

    He agreed that the fairness test represents a major rollback of their own policy. Admitting therefore, that WorkChoices, as introduced, WAS unfair. (This is borne out by the report in Howard’s biography that the Cabinet introduced WorkChoices in the full knowledge that people would be hurt and worse off.)

    Remember, this is the fellow who actually apologised to the HR Nicholls Society that WorkChoices (the unfair original) did not go far enough! Frankly, I think he is an extremist representing the dangerous cutting edge of right wing lunacy in Australia. Having vowed to take WorkChoices further, they cannot be trusted with another term.

  17. These reports confirm that there is more spin about polling than at the GABBA this week. Anyone who has the faintest idea what is going on in Western Australia has been consulting the entrails again. Westpoll is a joke and the mass media have one paper monopoly. All the regional papers bar one are owned by the West Australian. There are very few campaign stories in the regions in the electronic media. Even ABC News online has very little coverage despite its local radio network. ‘Labor View from Broome’

  18. And the best thing about Jasmine’s excellent letter is that the grubs at News Ltd will read it, because we know they all sneak over to the blogs for a peek when no-one’s looking. Samantha Maiden, although she has been fairly quiet this campaign, is a notorious Liberal attack dog. (What’s the term for a female dog? I forget.)

  20. I was tricked into reading a Miranda Devine article over at the SMH.

    http://www.smh.com.au/news/federal-election-2007-news/tagteam-assault-by-howards/2007/11/10/1194329563863.html

    It’s interesting because it shows that Nettie really does hold the leash and write the lines. It also shows that Howard is completely oblivious to the anti-Howard sentiment.

    And another on their ‘It’s the economy’ approach.
    http://www.smh.com.au/news/National/Coalition-launch-to-focus-on-economy/2007/11/11/1194724810206.html

    They still haven’t figured out that the more they talk about the economy, the more people worry about the security of their jobs, the more they worry about the impact of SerfChoices, the more they take on the experiences of friends and relatives with SerfChoices, and the more they think about not voting Liberal.

  21. Sorry to be giving Spoilers to those who see the program later. Typical NSW-centric myopia! But you’ve got a real treat coming with Lenore Taylor. Without her, Cassidy would just do his usual feckless job of letting Piers run wild.

  22. The thing I have loathed about the infiltration of the ABC Board, and subsequently the increased profile of obviously right-wing pundits, is that the ABC seems to have forgotten that it used to provide intelligent political debate. By all means have members of the right on to provide opinion, but can we please have intelligent and well measured opinions presented? I disagree with Gerard Henderson’s positions, but at least you know the man has a brain and knows how to use it. Piers Ackerman this morning was a disgrace. What on earth was his comment about “those women” who feature in the Labor Party ads. The sooner the ABC Board goes back to a central, less partisan position the better, and then my screen will no longer be subject to the idiocy that is Ackerman, Bolt and friends.

  24. Lenore Taylor is just so damn sexy the way she puts Piers back in his box. Piers is the worst panelist on Insiders. Ever. All he does is spew Liberal talking points, and when questioned on it (as Lenore did beautifully this morning) he proved he either doesn’t understand what he’s saying or have anything to back it up.

    At least other conservative panelists (Gerard Henderson, Glen Milne) are entertaining or can actually debate. Come on Aunty – boot Jabba the Hut and get someone worthwhile. Even (gasp) Miranda Devine would be better, God help me.

  25. Insiders
    Piers exposed for a fool – I doubt Lenore would agree to appear with him again. It’s like debating a 3 year old who’s just learnt the word ‘why?’ – he appears to be participating (if you’ve got the sound turned off), but the sh*t coming out of his head is unbelievable.
    Like Howard, the meaning he attributes to words is so very different to that accepted by the general community.
    David Marr and Lenore took the piss out of Piers and he didn’t even realise it – his time is up ABC; I can get that sort of crap from Today Tonight.

  27. BrissyRob,

    I suggest you do what I do. Bring down the sock draw and throw them at the TV. My partneris getting cunning though. She also gets me to pair up the socks from this weeks wahsing between 8.30 and 9.00 every Sunday morning.

  32. Further proof today that Hyacinth Howard is pulling the strings on her dopey husband. How dare she break convention and involve herself in an election campaign! The Liberals think this will actually help them? Of course the MSM won’t say a thing about this. You can imagine that if the situation was reversed and Rudd had attacked Mrs Howard, the hacks would be out there calling for Kev’s head on a platter – frigging hypocrites! I’ll be cheering loudly when the old bitch is dragged out of Kirribilli kicking and screaming!

  34. Lenore Nicklin has been the best journo on Insiders all year. She won’t take any crap from Toad Ackerman and the Bolter. George Mega is next best. Next year it would be nice to see some different right wingers on the show. I just hope there will be some subtle payback to some journos when Labor get in to power.

  36. Well in two weeks time some of us will wake up happy and some with a sinking filling. Many of us, regardless of political persuasion will wake up with a hangover.

    I agree with what the consensus was on the Insiders: it’s only now that people (aside from us tragics) are really starting to pay attention to the election. I wonder whether the focus on the economy over the last week was poorly timed for the Coalition, the campaign launches may swing the debate back to other issues. My other question is I wonder what is in the Tele Bennelong poll and will this swamp tomorrows Liberal campaign launch?

    Interesting to see the Liberals switching to targetted seat advertising: ‘everyone for themselves’ or a clever seat-by-seat bit of trench warfare? I’m amused that it takes the new ALP ads to remind everyone who leads the party that Liberal candidates represent, as the candidates don’t seem keen to remind voters in their ads.

    And $500,000 for orang-utans! Interviews with the target constituency clearly show that this is a plus for the Government:

  39. Isabella, if you bothered reading what I wrote you would see that I was not crticising Piers for being a Liberal mouthpiece; I was crticising him for not being able to carry an argument, understanding what he was saying, and being entertaining.
    David Marr does not have any of those problems and therefore deserves to be on the show.
    Obviously you have similar mental limitations to your buddy Jabba there.

  42. Classic Piers, “there is no housing affordability crisis”
    Why oh why do we get him or Bolt, they are nothing but Tory loonies. And yes, Lenore is brilliant. George Megalogenis also good value, we need some objective panellists on this debate.

    Also loved the highlighting of the ‘roads, rates and rubbish’ approach now being taken. Time to expose these frauds. These are local gov and state gov responsibilities. Unless of course they are talking about rodent plot to have nuclear waste dumps in Oz, which of course is why they built the Alice Darwin rail. Or the road to hell they plan for the workers under serf-choices perhaps.

  43. cenatur at 43: “Who are these knobbs on insiders..?”

    Just the usual bunch of conservative lotus eaters carping-on with insightful stuff like this:

    David: “Although Labor is ahead now, there’s still 2 weeks to go and people don’t really wake-up and pay attention until the second last week of a campaign, don’t you agree Piers?”

    Piers: “Oh yes, I have to agree with you there, David. I don’t think people have tuned-in to the election yet.”

    Nauseating.

    Worse still, irrelevant.

    There’s also an air of unreality about it all. They sit there in their sequestered little set and spout this stuff, week after week, steadfastly ignoring what the polling has universally been saying for the last 9 months and running their own inane little narratives, none of which are going to have any impact or traction.

    They’re like a Tory version of Big Brother, except that we don’t get the option of voting the wankers off the show.

    Outside (if you look) you can just make out the top of the approaching Electoral Tsunami as it rushes over the horizon toward the set.

  46. Are organg-utans represented in marginal seats?
    I’m all for protecting endangered animals, but a bizarre announcement from the Rodent.

  48. Why do people like Piers Wackerman have any credibility at all. There is no evidence, no support, its just a spewing of the way he would like to see the world. Let me see, we don’t want to face reality so we deny it, its just to much. He was unbelievable this morning, can anyone remember a Journo ever being so Rabidly Left-wing?
    If politicians were so comprehensively wrong on so many issues they would be slammed by these jokers, but it seems to be a trait of these ‘oppinion’ writers.
    For instance, how does Bolt continue to draw a salary when he has been so totally discredited as a Global Warming Sceptic.
    It is Bizzare……..

  49. That orangutan utube ad with Howard was the most bizarre thing that I have ever seen that is not supposed to be comedy satire. That image of Howard pushing the kid in the wheelchair was UNBELIEVABLE.

    It was PURE SKETCH COMEDY OF THE HIGHTEST ORDER.

    Oh dear oh dear oh dear!

    HOW SAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAD!

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