More Newspoll entrails exposed

The Australian has produced another set of Newspoll geographic and demographic breakdowns, suggesting we will be getting such figures compiled from the previous two weekly surveys each Thursday. That means both today’s breakdown and last Thursday’s were half composed of the October 26-28 survey. To produce these figures, Newspoll has increased its samples from 1000 to 1700, the extras coming from smaller states so that each has a credible sample of between 650 and 700 over a fortnight. As well as this, Newspoll is evidently doing more specialised surveys on weekdays for publication on Saturday (sometimes, at least – there was no such survey at the end of week two). So far we have been given the Bass and Braddon polls that appeared at the end of week one, along with last weekend’s marginal seats survey. The Australian’s editor Chris Mitchell, or someone who did a very good impression of him, appeared in comments a few days ago saying the latter exercise would be repeated later in the campaign.

The chart below shows how Newspoll’s projected swings to Labor have tracked out since the middle of last year. It seems that with the exception of Western Australia, the figures were closely knotted together until the election was announced, at which point they scattered: the swing has held firm in Queensland and South Australia, but returned to earth in New South Wales and Victoria. This provides corroborating evidence which had previously been lacking for the relatively mediocre NSW swing in the weekend’s marginal seat poll. That the Victorian swing is now level with Western Australia’s is perhaps more of a surprise. And then there are those swings in Queensland and South Australia, which seem firmly set in double figures. If that’s the case, Queensland will almost deliver Labor the election single-handedly, with 14 seats to fall from a uniform swing of 11 per cent. In South Australia, every figure Newspoll has produced since Rudd became leader suggests Labor should win big in Sturt and Boothby, a prospect most informed observers seem reluctant to countenance.

Last night’s comments action also brought forth some purported intelligence on Labor internal polling, which you can read here and here. This may of course be a red herring of one kind or another, but my instinct is to take people who name themselves after Ramones songs at their word.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,157 comments on “More Newspoll entrails exposed”

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  1. Enemy Combatant

    The fact that Mal Brough’s son was living as a street kid in Nambour and then ended up living with a social worker in Glasshouse Mountains is a well known truth. This is because his father kicked him out of the house when he lost his drivers licence.

    I am deadly serious about Fairfax as well – look at the swing from newspoll. Where do you think the 13% swing to Labor is occurring?

  2. Barely two weeks to go and nothing much has changed in months.
    I actually think it is likely now that both Malcolm Turnbull and John Howard will lose their seats by very small margins. It’ll certainly be very tight.
    If the 55-45 is right, and it seems quite likely it will be around that anyway, it is very serious indeed for the Coalition.
    Sol and Antony were indicating that it would be a big win for Kevin Rudd.
    Queensland may deliver up to 10 seats to Labor alone. Even WA is looking OK for Labor.
    85 Labor 62 Coalition 3 independent is my bet.
    The momentum is clearly going Kevin Rudd’s way as John Howard flails around changing the campaign theme from one week to the next.
    One week the economy is going gangbusters, the next it’s at risk. One week it’s Go for Growth, the next week er.. One day “I’m sorry for the rate rise”, the next day “no I’m not”.
    John Howard is really looking more and more like a flustered loser.
    It might be a loss of historic proportions.

  3. I can understand why they interview Antony because he knows so much about the polls and politics but doing it every week and with no massive movement in the polls is the same things over and over again.

    – State wide swings unheard of in QLD and SA
    – National polls predict 5% swing to Lab in WA
    – Seats on 8% are really on 2% so large numbers of seats in play
    – State wide polls good for Labor

    That is what Antony says at every interview, nothing new.

    We should have more interviews with past leaders, Fraser, Hawke, Keating, Peacock, Hewson, that would be much more interesting than how little the polls have changed and how as Sol says each week ‘has been a messy week with no major issues cutting in’.

    Serenity Now! lol

  4. Howard said ‘he was sorry that there was a rates rise’ Today he said ‘that was not an apology’. I agree, there’s a Labor ad ready-made.

  6. Oiii! How about this, Howard is a nogood pasydnyak nogoodnik. Not like our Kevin, our Kev is a fine buoy, A fine upstanding citizen a credit to his parents, a credit to your parents! He’s he’s…… a nice man! look at that smile! What’s not to like!?

    Not like that Howard Yiiichhh! Or that Costello! He’s like a dybuk, he got no class, he’s been away for ever and what do we get in the mail? Nothing! He borriowed his mothers razor and never retoirned it! Dont start with Costello!Acchhhhhh!!

  8. “935
    Adam Says:
    November 8th, 2007 at 8:02 pm
    Are we getting weekly ACNs now? ACN tomorrow, Morgan Friday, Galaxy Monday, Newspoll Tuesday – o joy unbounded.”

    Hmmm… entrail readers will appreciate the coded nod to Gilbert and Sullivan’s Trial by Jury there, and a subtle hint of what Adam expects on November 24.

    “O joy unbounded,
    With wealth surrounded,
    The knell is sounded
    Of grief and woe…”

  10. BTW:

    expect hr nicholls society to make a bit of splash soon

    you have to ask yourself why costello has tried to distance himself today from his erstwhile club

    suckled at its breast he is now running for cover – no I’m not like that mob of blood sucking capitalists who simply want to rape, pillage and make everyone a serf..

    so why did costello try to “move on” today?

    we shall see, i suspect

    afterall, workchoices was pretty much their script (or at least phase 1) which is why we will also be hearing more from nick minchin soon too….

    “more to come”

  12. Thommo, yu are either ignorant or a liar. There is massive mortage stress and rental stress in fairfax. Try bying a house in coolum say for under $400k that isn’t a complete shitbox or rent a decent unit for under $250 /week.Remember too that wages are lower on the sunny coast than in cities. Sure there is a tradeoff for lifestyle but for you too say it’s the fault of people with bad spending habits in a insult. Many of these people who bought properties did so beleving that jwh. would keep intrest rates at record lows so yes the govt. can be blamed for that. As to working in financial services that could mean you are a clerk at the local pawnbrokers! I also have a block of land as a investment prime position and it hasen’t gone up up up latley more like stagnet, stagnet,stagnet. Before you sprout lib lies check facts.

  13. Evening all – what a day, the men folk will be sacked and the women will become barren should Rudd be elected.

    You know things are grim when those are your lines of the day… apart from the semantics of an apology to peoples hip pockets that is.

    On the ACN, it would have to be one of their net polls drawn a tad under 1500 of their carefully weighted selection of 93 000 (I think) odd people they have on the books.

    I’m starting to take these online Nielsens seriously, they’ve been pretty rick solid to the phone polls.

  14. La Jule has the best way with words. On Howard’s is it or isn’t it an apology:

    “This isn’t a day to be looking in the Oxford dictionary, this is a day for Mr Howard to be looking inside himself and thinking to himself, ‘did I tell Australians the truth?’.”

  16. mytym, not sure if you were referring to my post about Garrett – I have no problem with him.

    The easiest thing in the world would for him to have stood for the Greens, or just stay head of the ACF.

    He is only a liability if you judge him by soundbites. I hope he does become Environment Minster, but if not he would be a great Indigenous Affairs minister.

    He is a crap “politician”, but given people hate politicians, I think he’ll do fine in the long run.

  17. This “sorry” debacle – and it is a debacle – will remind every voter of Howards history of weasel words. It’s the biggest Liberal mistake of the campaign – because it goes to the heart of their problem. They’ve been playing games with us for years – just to get elected. This time we’re a wakeup. This stuff will be reflected in next weeks polls.

  18. 823
    John Rocket Says:
    What the hell every happened to aspirational nationalism?

    The dog ate it, sir. Truly.

    858
    Let It End Says:
    Howie was very close to tears on the 7:30 report before the election when he was begging the electorate to vote for him so he could retire lol.

    He sure was, and he sure did. It was one of the most extraordinary and pathetic performances I have seen from a senior pollie. He is going to be hell to live with after the election.

    935
    Adam Says:

    Are we getting weekly ACNs now? ACN tomorrow, Morgan Friday, Galaxy Monday, Newspoll Tuesday – o joy unbounded.

    I might have to lock my radio, TV and computer in a safe and give a responsible adult the key for the next two weeks. Or maybe not, it is too much fun.

    945
    Gerr Says:
    T-shirt idea no 301
    ‘ I voted for Howard’ (on the front) ‘May God have mercy on my soul’ (on the back.)

    Or ‘Kick me hard, I’m a serial moron’.

  20. Good evening Possum Comitatus, good work. This is one of the most fascinating elections I have followed and never online like this before. It’s great having all these links and opinions. Stories break here first. I bet a lot of journos are obliged to read this blog – or be out of touch.
    Amazing two days. We are on new ground here with a rate rise just before an election, exactly as we predicted months ago.

  21. LOL, I see Howie was back in front of his “Go for Growth” slogans today when talking about the employment figures.

    Rest assured though at the first hint of bad news he’ll trot out the Aussie flag and ditch the slogan again.

    The last refuge of a scoundrel is always patriotism.

  23. 792
    Diogenes Says:
    November 8th, 2007 at 5:57 pm
    Ruawake. Those poor little buggers might be seeing alot of a really pissed off Daddy. He’s only in by 5.3% and “if the swing is on in Queensland as the polls indicate to date, Longman will probably fall to Labor.”

    Oh PLEASE :):):):)….. Longman is one of the seats our family has betting money on 😉

  24. I am just hoping the ALP is not dopey enough to use the slogan “We Won’t Get Fooled Again”.

    The last thing they need is to use a song that also has the lyric, “Meet the new boss, same as the old boss”.

  25. I don’t know if this has already been canvassed, but….
    (Howard) ” interest rates will always be higher under Labor”
    (Costello) “rising interest rates is the sign of a strong economy”
    Why am I confused?

  30. Good evening Richard (this is getting all a bit formal for PB, do we need to put on the penguin suits and bow ties ;-)) – thank you. It has been an inersting few weeks indeed.

    But let’s face it, we selected few…er… hundreds (thousands – who knows these days, it’s hard to keep up) have been ahead of the pack for months.

    And there’s no point reversing that now :mrgreen:

  31. It’s not the “I voted for Howard” t-shirt I’m thinking of, but the t-shirt the person next to them is wearing: “I’m with stupid ->”

  32. I think the Sydney based posters, nay, the people of Sydney should party on the Opera House forecourt on the big night and yea verily into the next day. The view to kirribilli is magnificent and our bared ars*s will be seen across the water by themselves on her last night in paradise. Our whoops too will carry across the water! There is no other site more appropriate nor venue big enough to contain the uncorking of the exuberance. I dont think it is at all Hubristic to begin planning now. Maybe Hawkie can crack the barge out of mothballs?

  35. @977
    [kina Says:
    November 8th, 2007 at 8:28 pm
    If Howard isn’t carefull the real issue for the remainder of this election may become his credibility.]

    I’d hate to see him so defenceless……

    naaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa!

  36. Glen Says:
    November 8th, 2007 at 7:54 pm

    We’ll we all know who Antony Green and Sol will vote for at the coming election lol.

    Given the poles you have a better than 50% chance of getting it right if you select a random person on the street and claim he/she votes or preferences labor. Given the performance of this government over the last 3 years you must have a better than 80% chance of getting it right if you predict a labor supporter if you get a yes to the question, “are you interested in politics?”. I assume Antony Green and Sol are interested.

    The fun part will be watching the ABC go feral as they become convinced the Liberals will lose. It must have been hard on the reporters watching the rubbish that has occurred and pretending it was all OK.

  38. Ok, ruawake, what family doesn’t have its problems?

    Anyway, if Debbie Blumel takes Fairfax from Alex Somlyay I’ll gladly consume a barbecued bush turkey before your very eyes.

  39. Libsrok, 962, Thommo – I lived on the Sunny Coast for 4 years until recently when I sold the house I bought 4 years ago. House prices there went up crazily in 2003 but have stagnated since then. I did alright with my place but I bought before prices went up late 2002 into 2003. But I still only stayed with the market. The problem of renters as mentioned here – yes, that’s a real problem on the Sunny, jobs are mostly in tourist related industry and don’t pay well. Rental demand has always been high and rents are currently through the roof. Workers like nurses and police try not to get posted to the Sunny, accommodation is a big problem there.

  43. The more clever people dump on Howard, the more stupid people identify with him and want to vote for him. A lot of swinging voters are stupid. So, stop it!!

  44. I know this has probably be mentioned about 900 posts ago, but was today Oz headline the winner of the most biased in Australian history?

    There’s enough in The Oz, that I like to keep me reading it, but sh*t I think they finally lost me today. (Thank God for Bill Leak, Mike Steketee and George)

  45. {If Howard isn’t careful the real issue for the remainder of this election may become his credibility.]

    Eeeerrr, what credibility. I didn’t know that he ever had any. If so, he sure as hell doesn’t have any now.

    Did anyone see the press conference on Channel 9, CA, where Howard repeated his “non-core” apology. The look on Costello’s face was priceless. I bet he would certainly like to be driving the bus over Howard’s miserable corpse.

    Pity he is all tip and no iceberg. He might have given the Libs at least some chance. As it is, Howard is doing everything possible to make sure that Tip will be lucky to even keep his seat let alone end up Leader of the Opposition.

    If people thought he hated Howard before, how much will he hate him after November the 24th.

  46. Add Kate Ellis to that list. We’ve got it good in SA!! And Mia Handshin is going to win too. I shook Pyne’s hand a few minthe ago (had to for work) and it still feels slimy. Out damn spot!

  48. Good morning Voterboy. How is sunny Dulwich? Did you get some bagles from that famous place just off brick lane. Did you make any calls to your palls in the Libs. It would be interesting to hear their take on the “sorry my arse I had my fingers cwossed”

  49. Yes, people were prepared to overlook that creepy Rodent sorry/ apology distinction when it applied to indigenous people – but they’ll flay him alive for doing it on interest rates.

    Howard just blew what was left of his shambolic trainwreck campaign.

    Plus Rudd was really strong and impressive on telly soundbites – he’s taking the gloves off.

    Its sting like a bee time.

    Im officially upping my prediction to 89 seats on the strength of today’s developments.

  50. Did you hear what the Australian is to be renamed in the event of a Rudd win?

    Provisional In-Exile Gazette Supporting Howard’s Immediate Totalitarian Elevation

    or the P.I.G.S.H.I.T.E.

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