The Australian has produced another set of Newspoll geographic and demographic breakdowns, suggesting we will be getting such figures compiled from the previous two weekly surveys each Thursday. That means both today’s breakdown and last Thursday’s were half composed of the October 26-28 survey. To produce these figures, Newspoll has increased its samples from 1000 to 1700, the extras coming from smaller states so that each has a credible sample of between 650 and 700 over a fortnight. As well as this, Newspoll is evidently doing more specialised surveys on weekdays for publication on Saturday (sometimes, at least – there was no such survey at the end of week two). So far we have been given the Bass and Braddon polls that appeared at the end of week one, along with last weekend’s marginal seats survey. The Australian’s editor Chris Mitchell, or someone who did a very good impression of him, appeared in comments a few days ago saying the latter exercise would be repeated later in the campaign.
The chart below shows how Newspoll’s projected swings to Labor have tracked out since the middle of last year. It seems that with the exception of Western Australia, the figures were closely knotted together until the election was announced, at which point they scattered: the swing has held firm in Queensland and South Australia, but returned to earth in New South Wales and Victoria. This provides corroborating evidence which had previously been lacking for the relatively mediocre NSW swing in the weekend’s marginal seat poll. That the Victorian swing is now level with Western Australia’s is perhaps more of a surprise. And then there are those swings in Queensland and South Australia, which seem firmly set in double figures. If that’s the case, Queensland will almost deliver Labor the election single-handedly, with 14 seats to fall from a uniform swing of 11 per cent. In South Australia, every figure Newspoll has produced since Rudd became leader suggests Labor should win big in Sturt and Boothby, a prospect most informed observers seem reluctant to countenance.
Last night’s comments action also brought forth some purported intelligence on Labor internal polling, which you can read here and here. This may of course be a red herring of one kind or another, but my instinct is to take people who name themselves after Ramones songs at their word.
Actually Hadagutful John Howard is dumping on himself. I’ve never seen anything like it. After today’s utterly inept performance he might as well throw in the towel.
Peter Costell’s face was a picture. He can see the prize slipping further away from him every day.
Glen said,
{I can understand why they interview Antony because he knows so much about the polls and politics but doing it every week and with no massive movement in the polls is the same things over and over again.
– State wide swings unheard of in QLD and SA
– National polls predict 5% swing to Lab in WA
– Seats on 8% are really on 2% so large numbers of seats in play
– State wide polls good for Labor
That is what Antony says at every interview, nothing new.}
Don’t you just love hearing this sort of thing on a daily basis. As long as it hangs on till the 24th, I will be delirious.
Hadagutful do you think many stupid people find their way in here to see what the smartarses are saying about JWH? (Aside from the obvious regulars who shall remain nameless)
somlyay ? what’s he ever done?
suport workchoices-yes
suport iraq- yes
support lib mates ripping off super to workers -yes
standing up for fairfax voters – nope
earning his salary- nope
support awb bribes- yes
ever seen him papers- no
more to come
I think a good dose of lithium should sort out JWH. It will get rid of doublespeak and get that campaign back in track. You are a very sick boy Winston! Room 101 awaits you.
Where is Kevin Rudd’s credibility?
He’s got none, he’s been leader for less than 1 year and based on that you’d vote for him?
I would be upset if our Party ever puts in a leader with no experience let alone hardly any years in Parliament, but to each his own. You trash Howie over cred but what about Rudd’s cred when he lied to Joanna Harris?
Oh Grog, I am paying attention alright, and loving every bit of it! It was a rhetorical question, as I am sure the average voter will be confused.
994
[Grog Says:
November 8th, 2007 at 8:50 pm
I know this has probably be mentioned about 900 posts ago, but was today Oz headline the winner of the most biased in Australian history?]
Funny they seem to win that award every single day…and effortlessly to boot.
Rudd had a meeting with New Ltd editors today, as did Costello, why?
I wonder if Albrechtsen was there and if so did the Lynx that Kev wears work on her? I guess we’ll tell by her next column….perhaps we’ll never know…….Perhaps she’ll never know.
Guys, Glen might not be a troll but you really are wasting your time on him. It really is like dealing with a religious fundamentalist. And I know Glen would love that being an Atheist.
But think about this. The way to get people to believe in religion is to “get em while they’re young”. Bury it so deep in their psyche that there are defense mechanisms for everything. Richard Dawkins put it well when he described religious belief as a virus of the mind. It not only has people believe things contrary to the overwhelming weight of evidence, it creates antibodies to any pattern of thought that might lead them to disbelieving.
Failing “getting them while they’re young” is some event in adult life that causes real fear. Even if that fear isn’t factual. Or failing that is the nexus between the set of wrong ideas and a connected set that have some deep emotional roots. An example of this is how deeply connected the Republican Party is with anti-gun-control *and* law-and-order *and* religious extremism *and* personal freedom. It also has to do with the sort of hardening of values that come with social networking. Best way to take a thief and make him a violent criminal, is to put him in jail.
And sadly, this is the case in a lot of strongly held beliefs. It’s like my mate that keeps trying to tell me that the world trade center wasn’t brought down by impact+fire. Its like convincing a racist that there’s nothing wrong in a particular group of people. You can perhaps win on a few points of fact, but deep down, they can’t let go.
And so it was with Glen. I challenged him over a point of fact.
Glen: The only ‘clean’ source of baseload power is nuclear.
Me: There are a dozen ways to provide baseload power with renewables.
Glen: The only ‘clean’ source of baseload power is nuclear.
Now despite being confronted with fact, Glen cannot change his mind over an issue that isn’t really party political. And the reason is, the virus of the mind. Nothing can enter into his mind that contradicts *present* Liberal Party policy.
Its kinda like
Glen: Dinosaurs were around 4000 years ago
Me: A summary of the scientific evidence showing that proposition is bollocks.
Glen: Dinosaurs were around 4000 years ago. I know this because it is official Liberal Party policy.
Just a thought.
Gerr I don’t WANT to know.
How about Howard wearing a t-shirt that reads
‘Man of Steel’
This from Turnbull today:
“Mr Turnbull said the idea of Australia not having a seat at the negotiating table was “absolute nonsense”.
“I mean if you take that seriously the United States, which has not ratified Kyoto, has got no say in future climate change negotiations.”
Reminds me of the dorky kids who sees the coolest kid in school get to go to every party even if he isn’t invited, and yet when they turn up at the door, the host looks at them like they’ve just stepped in a piece of dog sh*t.
I can just see the Libs … “but … but you didn’t invite America!!”
libsrok which union stooge will replace your MP?? Another bench warmer with no cred who will never rise through the ranks so why bother changing?
{I wonder if Albrechtsen was there and if so did the Lynx that Kev wears work on her? }
I hope the miserable baskets all catch Rudd’s cold.
Glen
Debbie Blumel has 4 degrees 2 at masters level. Somlyay is a corpse.
Just noticed that the banner behind Howard and Costello today said simply “Go for Growth” rather than the usual “Go for Growth” sub text: “Vote Liberal”
Wtf? Have they given up on the second part of the slogan?
I was shocked to see a Pauline Hanson add on prime time channel 7 this evening 6pm newshere in Brisbane.
Shes going hard to get another $50 for the pensioners…doe’s JWH need a top-up?
Just been reading this:-
http://www.farmonline.com.au/news_daily.asp?ag_id=46729
City people tend to forget that many farmers are up to their eyeballs in debt.
I talked to one organic grain grower last week who thought he had a great crop only to see it wither before his eyes in eight weeks.
They have nothing to thank John Howard for. It’ll hit the country particularly hard.
Country people want action on global warming.
T shirt idea:
On the front: Howard, Going for Bust
On the back: Double or Nothing.
Union stooge
silent majority
moral majority
union bosses
Reds under the beds
Communist past
Socialists
Anti business
Anti Corgi’s
Signed
Major Frank Burns
Man of Steal is the Costello
to all fans of Cyrius work he go 2 new vids up on youtube!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8BCZF-wr6a8&sdig=1
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yxKjNos-UVA&sdig=1
Have a look!
Do Rattus and Tip hate each other so much that they are each trying to throw this election to spite one another?
this shambolic campaign has been remarkable.
i’m sticking with my 102 seat prediction lol
Given the Daily T’s headline today “Not as Sorry us We are”, after Howard’s back down on his “apology”, I wonder what they’ll go with tomorrow….
Mad cow if you are going to use my quotes don’t make them up because all you do is tarnish your own credibility.
It’s funny how anybody who isn’t left wing or thinks Rudd is a genius is automatically thought to A) have no beliefs of their own B) be a troll C) be brainwashed D) act like a religious fundamentalist.
None of you can just accept that normal rational people would support the Liberal Party or conservatism. Just because you think differently from me doesn’t make you ‘crazy’ or ‘brainwashed’ as you suggest i am.
Not sure if this has been posted. ANother new ad on YouTube by labor posted an hour ago.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4D4cnowSZQw
Hey Glen, you’re a pretty relentless kind of loser, aren’t you, to keep supporting Howard. Even when it’s so obvious to the whole of Australia that Howard’s weasel words are making him look the complete double-faced pr*ck that he is, you still support him, as the final nail is banged into the pine box.
Howard: “I’m sorry that you think I’m sorry for an apology that I said sorry for not being sorry to the apology on interest rates… I think there is a difference between the two things. I think we’ve been through that debate before in the context of something else. I’m sorry you don’t understand my sorry in the context of an non-core apology while I was saying sorry”… sorry?
[anybody who isn’t left wing or thinks Rudd is a genius is automatically thought to A) have no beliefs of their own B) be a troll C) be brainwashed D) act like a religious fundamentalist.]
Really Glen?
Sorry? I took that out of context? Now you know how Glen Stevens feels about Weazley
This government doesn’t care (cue but you don’t care song by misex)
They don’t care about the environment, about your pay, your mortgage, your education, your health, and housing affordability. They don’t care about poverty, about murdering innocent people during an illegal war, about selling wheet to a dictator and later murdering him, about asylum seekers, foreign doctors, overseas citizens being jailed and murdered, and David Hicks.
“THEY JUST DON’T CARE ” about anything ………except being re-elected.
Glen, I’m simply making the point that not once have you conceded a point of fact to anyone here, even in the face of overwhelming evidence to the contrary.
Glen, you must have you forgotten to take your medicine tonight, you are rather unstable.
Centaur 007 @ 998. Just put a call through. He was out, but the largely non-political missus answered. “It looks like a disaster”, she said, before telling me about the ALP’s new Whingeing Wendy ad, which she thought was very effective. Remember this was the person who said she’d stopped watching TV when the election began.
I’ve seen that ad myself. It is very impressive.
Haven’t been to Brick Lane for about a year – my wife’s always a big fan of Spitalfields Market, tho. Sadly, we get our bagels from Tescos.
The ALP hit the airwaves here in Sydney tonight with one of their longer spots on the ABC. The ABC giving equal time to both parties sort of thing. Rudd spoke in an office setting on his vision for Australia and it went on for probably a good 3 to 5 minutes? It was on just prior to the news at 7pm so a huge number of people saw it as they were waiting for the news to click in. Did the ABC carry similar in the other capital cities prior to the news there?
Glen I don’t think Rudd is a genius. I actually am often p*ssed by his right wing nature.
I think the ALP PM who takes over from him will be better as there won’t be the stupid need to be a young Howard. It’ll take the public a few years to remember that our PM doesn’t need to be a divisive conservative wedge monkey.
And once they do, I predict both sides will be a hell of a lot more positive in their outlook.
By then Costello will be gone, the Libs will have someone new, and the ALP will be looking at electing a leader who does not have to play the rules by Howard’s agenda – because let’s be honest, the reason Rudd has been so good, is that (thus far) he has beaten Howard at his own game.
🙂
@1033
Julie
Yes Melbourne too, and it was exactly what I wanted to see as I wrote ealier today (in this rather wasted day off infront of the computer)…the vision thing. It was grand!
Mad cow i have.
RGee at 1026 on the new ALP ad,
This might sound a bit crass, but it’s very clever putting that blonde lass as the first citizen you see in that ad.
Did anyone notice our share market followed Wall Street down? It might not be the end of the correction. If we lose 15-20% in the next week with panic selling it could affect public sentiment. We can only hope the bargain hunters will move in and snap up those bargains. CRK is looking extremely cheap for example.
You mean that paid up Labor member Possum.
ABC provides a schedule of its free time political broadcasts here:
http://www.abc.net.au/elections/federal/2007/freetime/
It doesnt matter who she was Glen, she served her advertising purpose extremely well.
That is true Possum i don’t disagree with your valid point.
All going swimmingly. My, am I enjoying the campaign!
And frankly, I wouldnt judge Rudd just yet. He’s had to jump through hoops, not of his own making, as a result of the utterly debased and moronic state of public debate and media fixation after 10 years of Howard.
MC-G is one of the unstable ideologues being squeeed out by the Young Liberals these days. The YL’s are full of the sort trying to take over the NSW branch of the party-scary indeed. A propensity for reason and logic is considered a short coming and a weakness in these circles.
The ability to argue like a 5 year old is highly desired e.g
Normal person ” The sky is blue”
Young Liberal “No its not”
Normal person ” But…
Young Liberal “No its not”
“You mean that paid up Labor member Possum.”
Does that mean that coalition members don’t want to show their faces and therefore actors have to be used?
glen tell me this without refering to cheat sheets wtf has somlyay has ever done? btw what happened to thommo was lookng forward to his replies.
Meanwhile in Bennelong Betting.
[VOTERS might soon be asking the Prime Minister to pack his bags at Kirribilli House, but his electorate office is looking increasingly safe, Sportingbet Australia says.
Sportingbet CEO Michael Sullivan says there has been heavy betting on John Howard to hold his Sydney seat of Bennelong, including a $20,000 bet today.
“Although the odds are well and truly in Labor’s favour in terms of the overall election outcome, the PM can take some confidence out of this week so far with the majority of money bet going on the Coalition this week despite the rate rise,” he said.
“Punters think that the Newspoll result, which showed improvement for the coalition, is more significant than the rate rise.”
He said 70 per cent of money bet this week has been for the coalition, whereas all the money had been for Labor in the previous two weeks. ]
http://www.news.com.au/perthnow/story/0,21598,22726126-5005361,00.html
The new Labor ad rocks, I like the digger holding up today’s Daily telegraph which reads ‘Not as sorry as we are’ on the cover and putting the boot in, and the indian guy saying ‘He shouldnt go round making those sort of promises’. It’s a beauty.
The Liberal campaign has been completely de-railed over the last week. First the Triple-Abbott (with half twist and pike), then the rate-rise and now the aftermath. The “Go For Growth” message has been implicitly rescinded because of the infation warnings given by the RBA and the focus has switched to whether Howard really ever means what he says. This is the perfect calamity. There is no campaign any more, just delerium, contradiction, hyperbole and ogre-mongering.