More Newspoll entrails exposed

The Australian has produced another set of Newspoll geographic and demographic breakdowns, suggesting we will be getting such figures compiled from the previous two weekly surveys each Thursday. That means both today’s breakdown and last Thursday’s were half composed of the October 26-28 survey. To produce these figures, Newspoll has increased its samples from 1000 to 1700, the extras coming from smaller states so that each has a credible sample of between 650 and 700 over a fortnight. As well as this, Newspoll is evidently doing more specialised surveys on weekdays for publication on Saturday (sometimes, at least – there was no such survey at the end of week two). So far we have been given the Bass and Braddon polls that appeared at the end of week one, along with last weekend’s marginal seats survey. The Australian’s editor Chris Mitchell, or someone who did a very good impression of him, appeared in comments a few days ago saying the latter exercise would be repeated later in the campaign.

The chart below shows how Newspoll’s projected swings to Labor have tracked out since the middle of last year. It seems that with the exception of Western Australia, the figures were closely knotted together until the election was announced, at which point they scattered: the swing has held firm in Queensland and South Australia, but returned to earth in New South Wales and Victoria. This provides corroborating evidence which had previously been lacking for the relatively mediocre NSW swing in the weekend’s marginal seat poll. That the Victorian swing is now level with Western Australia’s is perhaps more of a surprise. And then there are those swings in Queensland and South Australia, which seem firmly set in double figures. If that’s the case, Queensland will almost deliver Labor the election single-handedly, with 14 seats to fall from a uniform swing of 11 per cent. In South Australia, every figure Newspoll has produced since Rudd became leader suggests Labor should win big in Sturt and Boothby, a prospect most informed observers seem reluctant to countenance.

Last night’s comments action also brought forth some purported intelligence on Labor internal polling, which you can read here and here. This may of course be a red herring of one kind or another, but my instinct is to take people who name themselves after Ramones songs at their word.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,157 comments on “More Newspoll entrails exposed”

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  1. I’m starting to feel sorry for the three chumps who are writing a book each about Howard and the election campaign.

    How would you write about the twists and turns and somersaults that have taken place so far and there’s still 16 days to go?

  2. Good work on making it to Day 5 Bushfire Bill.

    The Nicotine Demon should know you are not so gullible. 😀

    I quit a year ago now, all I can say is, there is light at the end of the tunnel.

  3. Lefty E:

    Call me vindictive, but MSM revisionism won’t do it for me; I won’t be truly satiated until I see the Liberal Party establishment dining on rat liver.

  4. Phew… Two weeks and one day to go. Gimme that Wentworth poll. I imagine we are also nearly due for new Advertiser polls for Boothby and Sturt. And those 3 WA marginals that PMR have done a few times for Westpoll…

  5. Bushfire Bill,
    I’m fortunate never to have started on the weed, but I’m rapt in your progress and urge you to keep it up. There is more joy in heaven over one sinner that repenteth than 99 who have no need of repentance.
    I’d encourage you to use any selection of the tricks which have been suggested. to ward off the craving. I’m a fitness enthusiast, so I’d strongly recommend the brisk walk. My sense of where you live makes me think that would be a quite pleasant option. I’d also suggest “rewards” which are meaningful for you, confectionery if you have a sweet tooth, a particular food item that you like – snack or main meal – or an eating out reward for you and your SO.
    I love your stuff on the blogs, and hope that the fact that many of us who don’t know you personally (but think that we do!) empathise with your present struggle. It’s a metaphor for the Ruddster’s Everest of 16 seats, and I’m sure that it will be equally successful. Nil desperandum!

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