More Newspoll entrails exposed

The Australian has produced another set of Newspoll geographic and demographic breakdowns, suggesting we will be getting such figures compiled from the previous two weekly surveys each Thursday. That means both today’s breakdown and last Thursday’s were half composed of the October 26-28 survey. To produce these figures, Newspoll has increased its samples from 1000 to 1700, the extras coming from smaller states so that each has a credible sample of between 650 and 700 over a fortnight. As well as this, Newspoll is evidently doing more specialised surveys on weekdays for publication on Saturday (sometimes, at least – there was no such survey at the end of week two). So far we have been given the Bass and Braddon polls that appeared at the end of week one, along with last weekend’s marginal seats survey. The Australian’s editor Chris Mitchell, or someone who did a very good impression of him, appeared in comments a few days ago saying the latter exercise would be repeated later in the campaign.

The chart below shows how Newspoll’s projected swings to Labor have tracked out since the middle of last year. It seems that with the exception of Western Australia, the figures were closely knotted together until the election was announced, at which point they scattered: the swing has held firm in Queensland and South Australia, but returned to earth in New South Wales and Victoria. This provides corroborating evidence which had previously been lacking for the relatively mediocre NSW swing in the weekend’s marginal seat poll. That the Victorian swing is now level with Western Australia’s is perhaps more of a surprise. And then there are those swings in Queensland and South Australia, which seem firmly set in double figures. If that’s the case, Queensland will almost deliver Labor the election single-handedly, with 14 seats to fall from a uniform swing of 11 per cent. In South Australia, every figure Newspoll has produced since Rudd became leader suggests Labor should win big in Sturt and Boothby, a prospect most informed observers seem reluctant to countenance.

Last night’s comments action also brought forth some purported intelligence on Labor internal polling, which you can read here and here. This may of course be a red herring of one kind or another, but my instinct is to take people who name themselves after Ramones songs at their word.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,157 comments on “More Newspoll entrails exposed”

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  1. Go for it Grog – I upped mine today from 85 to 89 on the basis of what an arrogant, conceited old fool Howard proved himself to be today.

  2. And might I wager some people are going to look sheepish when this alleged story appears (or otherwise) tomorrow.

    $10 says its either

    a. Complete non-starter, or
    b. Some low-rent, zero-substance, own-goal trollery from the depths of the liberal gutter unit that merely highlights their own unfitness for further office, and increases Rudd’s popularity 2 points overnight – just like every other time.

    The Libs are truly doing their best to convert their defeat into a wipeout.

  3. RE Breeders Bonus.

    [The baby bonus was meant to help parents cover some of the initial costs of bringing up a child. But it seems it’s also playing havoc with the schedules of doctors and hospitals.

    A new study shows many mothers are moving the birth dates of their babies in order to take advantage of increases in the one-off payment.

    The researchers say more than 600 babies have been born later than they should have because of the financial incentives.]

  4. Rudd should now start hounding the PM for another debate. He should say he is prepared to take both Captain Smirk and the Rat on at the same time.

  5. Lefty E, et al.

    The 70% breaking business that my Lb mate talked about may very well be crap – to be brutally honest I don’t understand these things well enough to comment either way. What I will say in his defence, though, is that he’s not some pre-programmed nutter trying to squeeze the best out of every situation like Sham-I-Am and the clowns on here.

    And, it should be said, that while he’s not willing to rule his side out yet, he doesn’t think it likely that they’ll win.

  6. I didn’t take it as a fact VoterBoy – more their belief (misguided and fanciful it may be).

    Both sides probably think it’ll break 70% their way.

  7. Howard is in trouble on another front now too.

    {JOHN Howard has been warned his Government could be blamed for the loss of hundreds of timber workers’ jobs in the crucial Tasmanian seat of Bass within weeks.

    A Tasmanian sawmiller told the Prime Minister last week its operations at the Scottsdale mills, in the north of the state, were “under review” because the federal Government broke a 2004 election promise by failing to intervene with the state Labor Government. On the eve of the 2004 election, then Minister for Fisheries, Forestry and Conservation, Ian Macdonald, sent Auspine reassurances on federal government support in getting security of supply for sawlogs from the state Labor Government.

    The mills employ 300 people and have already been granted $4million from the Howard Government to ensure continued operation and to avoid laying off workers.

    In the 2004 election, the Coalition’s Tasmanian forest and timber package to protect workers’ jobs swung the election its way, helping it pick up two seats from Labor in northern Tasmania, Braddon and Bass.

    In a bitter letter to the Prime Minister, dated October 26, Auspine managing director Adrian de Bruin accused Liberal senators and ministers of failing to meet promises made in 2004. },25197,22721729-11949,00.html

    What is surprising though, is it is by Shanahan. Love this little bit.

    {Oh John, how will you adumbrate this? }

  8. Great Interview on Lateline of the next PM. Internationally Competitive without throwing the Fair Go out the door. A Labor moderniser.
    Howard with his sorry excuse of an apology is just a rodent left behind the time.

  9. @1102
    the munz of mosman Says:
    November 8th, 2007 at 10:42 pm
    How has this sorry little man had so much political success?

    A question for the ages….

    got me flumoxed

  10. Pathological Logic’s comments should perhaps be linked to someone else’s (sorry I don’t recall the poster’s ID) earlier in the day re: an Australian lender getting into serious strife due to the subprime crisis.

    I’ve been worrying that the subprime crisis would provide the rodent with a ready made Tampa-like issue at the worst moment, perhaps this is it?

    Is Costello’s economic tsunami about to strike Australia’s shores?

  11. Rudd was good on LL what were you doing? Flicking back and forth between that and college girls gone wild?

    Jonesy’s questions were, at the end in partic, like Rudd was president elect…almost fawning….

    everyone in the know knows….it’s over for Weazley.

  12. Fisher, Curtin, Whitlam, Hawke and Keating. Pity he forgot Chifley, but good on him for being proud of ALP heritage. Unlike the LNP who never mention Fraser, Gorton, McMahon, Holt (or even Menzies much).

    Guess that’s what happens when the only reason the party exists is to be the non-ALP party.

  13. Rudd warmed into the interview, but if he doesn’t get some rest between now and the election his victory speech could be a doozy

    “I thank… working families for voting for us.
    Working families are the backbone of society.
    I will repay the trust of … working families.”

    And is it just me, or have both leaders now said nearly word for word
    “He is just playing semantic word games to avoid the fact that he doesn’t have a plan to put downward pressure on inflation”?

  14. Its ture though that Im getting pretty darn sick of ‘working families’, just Aussie families would do…also he should do an encompassing meaning speech on what he means by working families and make us feel all inclusive, make it like a love in with Lorenzo St Dubios strumming his guitar in the back ground….

    love power…..

  15. Martin B – I agree – he warmed into it. The first half was excruciating. The second half was quite good. Luckily there is not a single swinging voter who watches Lateline. Not one.

  16. He says “working families” for the obvious reason – because it was those people who Howard said earlier this year have never been better off.

  17. Grog @ 1113. Yeah, I agree with you there. And to be honest, I think their bizarre behaviour over the past two days – especially Howard’s – indicates a massive lack of confidence. In this instance, you don’t need to be privy to their internal workings – just watch them panic and judge their mood yourself.

    As for the AFR story, a couple of observations. Two days ago, we were all told how the Daily Tele had a big yarn that was going to blow Rudd out of the water. Yesterday a colleague in London repeated this claim (almost word for word from the Crikey website), which he’d heard from someone who claims to be a mate of Rudd’s (but who wasn’t au fait with the rumour himself). I said then that if the DT had a yarn they wouldn’t be waiting until Friday; they’d have to launch it immediately. They haven’t, and I assuming there’s nothing to it. Equally, if the AFR had a big story, you wouldn’t be hearing it here first.

    The reason why I mention the “friend of Rudd” isn’t to give the story legs, it’s to remind us all that we’re now in full-on nail biting stage, and that rumours and rumours of rumours, and stories about dirty tricks will be flying thick and fast, and everyone’s going to know someone who knows something exclusive. If it appears in the paper, then I’ll believe there’s a story out there (if not the story itself). Until then, it’s just chatter.

  18. “Too many cliches and too much avoiding the question for the sake of sticking to a certain script..”

    True, although in the latter instance the questions were mostly dumb.

    “good on him for being proud of ALP heritage”

    When TJ said “what about Howard?” I think Rudd should have had something, no matter how lighthearted, that he could have said that he liked about JHo. Tough ask, I know, but I think that kind of attempt at ‘a fair go’ for ones opponents plays really well… And of course you can always follow up the mild praise with a strong criticism.

    But I agree that the reprise of Labor history was heartwarming to see.

  19. @1131

    [Burgey – yeah, but he should quit with the games and just speak like he means it]

    YES, Ive thought this too, some cut through the crap language in an interview would win the election for Rudd on its own.

  20. Yeah – look when he spoke about the need for an independent public service, he was good and you could tell he meant – there was a flicker of a light on the hill. we need more of that.

  21. I’m betting the DT follows up tomorrow with a sequel to todays “Not as Sorry as We Are” headline.

    How about: “Howard: I’m not sorry”

  22. Michael, Rudd’s job is to bring home the bacon not to impress the political class with speeches and interviews. It is about getting the average voter to feel that he is no risk and they can vote for him without the Latham effect. He is in front so why take risks, rock the boat or go off message speaking to the converted. If he can pull this off it will be the most impressive and inspirational win in a long long time. Slaying the Grandmaster of them all.

  23. Just on this Rudd story – Its something pushed by Tony (Dickhead) Abbott. For the last two weeks he’s been muttering something about the ‘Dark Side’ of Kevin Rudd. Maybe the RuddStar is an alien or Darth Vader.

  24. “Here’s the story – the vote is around 46-54, or 47-53. There’s 10-15% undecided and they’re breaking 70% our way.”

    While agree with the methodological criticisms of Lefty E, I just make the mathematical observation that a baseline vote of 46-54 with 10% undecided breaking 70-30 would not get the coalition close (unless they can smash the lowest 2PP victory vote record), although a baseline 47-53 with 15% undecided breaking 70-30 would just get them over the line.

    In other words, not only do you have to believe the unreasonably optimistic (for the Libs) scenario, you have to believe the most extreme version of it to forecast a nailbitingly close government win…

  25. JHIAC – I agree – I just hope he doesn’t turn the rest of them off… but you’re right – I’m in no position to judge his popukar appeal

    on another issue – has anyone seen the photo of Tony Blair on the SMH and Age websites?? He looks terrible. Has he been ill or something?

  26. Lefty E, Grog, et al,
    You know I’ve been thinking more about our conversation since I posted it and I think I might have misrepresented the tone. I think that the 70% and closing gap references were rhetorical. He started out with these “facts”, and then launched into this bitter attack on cranky old Howard f*cking up all the hard work of others. He was laughing throughout this, with incredulity.

    On reflection, I suspect the conversation wasn’t so much about whether they can win (which he seriously doubts), but more about what a hopelessly destructive campaigner Howard has been, and how he had managed to seriously derail the campaign just when thinks were looking (however marginally) less negative.

  27. When will you young whippersnappers learn to distinguish the difference between “a cold” and “the flu”.

    Rudd has a cold. He DOES NOT have the flu.

    The flu knocks you out. A Cold makes you a bit sniffly (which is all that Rudd is).

    [Replaces dentures, takes drink of warm milk to bed]

    * * * * * * *

    Nicotine Chronicles:
    Almost at Day #5.

    Just as hard as earlier days. The Nicotine Demon is, if anything, even sneakier than he was on Day #1. He’s realised that stabbing me in the guts with a pang of pain doesn’t work, so now he’s trying to sweet-talk me… “Just one won’t hurt Bushfire. You can try just one. Just a couple of puffs… Come on. I’m your mate, right? Would I lie to you?”

    * Heart rate has dropped from 94 to 67 bpm.
    * Blood pressure from a respectable 126/84 to a phenomenal 115/74
    * Ankles no longer swell at 5pm (this was from Day #1… an instant result).
    * Ran.. repeat… RAN with the dogs today, 2 km. Never done this in my life before. In fact the dogs looked more worried than I was… “Has pop gone mad?”

    * Still desperate for a smoke… every day I have woken up determined to betray my vow and go up to the local Mobil and buy a packet of smokes. Somehow, each day, this has not happened. I don’t know why. I really, truly, don’t.

  28. VBoOtW 1145:

    So you mean the Liberal party revisionist history of Howard has already begun?

    [Vincent Price mode] Excellent! [/Vincent Price mode]

  29. Just been doing a bit of viewing of the Garrett/Turnbull debate on the GG web site.

    Looking at the video of the opening statements and the photo on the front page of Turnbull glaring at Garrett, it looks very much as though Garrett has made up for his earlier gaffes.

    If the rest of the debate panned out like the intro, then Turnbull has been trumped by the inexperienced Garrett. Another win to Labor and another nail in the coffin.

    These debates are not doing the Coalition any favours whatsoever.

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