Galaxy: 54-46

Today’s News Limited tabloids bring a nationwide Galaxy poll conducted from Friday through to Sunday, showing Labor’s leading increasing to 54-46 from 53-47 a fortnight ago. Sample was 1010; full details available here.

TWO-PARTY PRIMARY
ALP LNP ALP LNP
Nov 4
 54 46 45 42
Oct 19
 53 47 45 43
Sept 24
 56 44 46 40
Aug 27
 57 43 47 39
July 30
 54 46 44 41
July 2
 55 45 46 41
June 4
 53 47 44 42
May 14
 57 43 49 39
April 23
 58 42 49 37

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

662 comments on “Galaxy: 54-46”

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  2. I thinks its going to get worse for the Libs from here. They will implode. Just keep saying “Who do you trust” John. The electorate will answer. 100+ is looking good.

  3. A good result on the whole for Labor, and on the mark for my prediction of 54-46 to Labor in Galaxy. Newspoll will be 56-44 Labor IMO. Last 3 polls, ACN, Morgan f2f and Galaxy, have all had Labor’s 2PP up 1%, so hopefully we get a 4th good poll.

  4. 47
    mad cow Says:
    November 5th, 2007 at 12:42 am
    Well.. I could suggest that Glen seeks refuge in the US, but I won’t be that cruel.

    No, I grew up there. I can assure you that he would fit in just fine. Send him to Grand Rapids, Michigan. That is just about the most Republican area in the state [my home state] if not the country. It is Gerald Ford’s birth place.

  5. Have you noticed the News Ltd papers have stopped noting 2PP figures and seem to be featuring primary percentages – presumably because the ALP’s figures are below the psychological 50 figure when counted that way?

    Howards screwed – the media aren’t covering the scary economy at the moment, they are covering Howard SAYING its a scary economy and that this is his tactic for the election.

    It’s like the Wizard of Oz, with a pack of reporters pointing to the guy behind the curtain.

  7. Got up to do some work, and lo! A Galaxy to brighten the day!

    And even a number of Glenisms to divert and amuse.

    Looks like more of the same with the added advantage of less and les time for the rat to claw anything back.

  8. “Leader fears he will lose power – declares martial law”

    Thought the rodent was playing his final card then realised the headline referred to Pakistan.

    Mind you, desperate times do call for desperate actions

  9. In 2004 had Howard “knowingly misled the public” on interest rates?
    What sort of question is this? “Knowingly”?
    I could have truthfully answered “No” myself!
    Howard certainly didn’t “Know” interest rates would rise.

    Again, it looks like the phrasing of the questions delivers the outcome desired.

  10. Well who said a week is a long time in politics. One of the team rodent spokesman was singing from a different songbook to Howard not that long ago.

    http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/news/national/costello-no-case-for-rate-rise/2007/10/24/1192941125936.html

    [Mr Costello said the inflation figure was a “remarkable” achievement given strong economic growth and a tight labour market.

    He said consumers were bearing the brunt of rising food prices because of the drought, but played down concerns that interest rates could rise in the near term. “With this strong investment cycle we are now building additional capacity …. increasing productivity … in the years ahead,” he said.]

  14. 162 LOL

    View from england – we think the Coalition will hold on!

    Could be as big as 10 maj for Coalition….. a long night of disappointment for Labor….

  17. BrissyRod – the labor primary has been solid all year, and even in Galaxy has increased sine July. If the newspoll state by state data are to be believed, the likelhood is that the national average is depressed, if anything. Which matters not a jot, since the ALP would win in NSW and Qld alone, with Vic and Tas the icing and SA the bunch of cherries on top.

  19. Completely off topic, but you guys over there deserve to be amused…

    I’ve got a number of news clipping binders from previous Federal Elections. I read them when I’m homesick (pity me). If you’ll indulge me, I’ll share with you some snippets from 1972.

    Herald, 7 September: “The federal elections will be held as late as the Prime Minister, Mr McMahon, can possible hold it(sic), the Leader of the Federal Opposition, Mr Whitlam, said today.”

    Australian, 9 Sep; Front page lead headline – “PM gains support” – and in smaller sub-heading “But his national rating is still lagging well behind Whitlam’s”. Author – Alan Ramsay.

    Age 14 Sep: “McMahon may lose seat: poll.”

    Sun 16 Sep: “The Queensland branch of the Liberal Party is having trouble raising funds for the Federal Eloection.”

    Age 26 Sep: “Election odds against Liberals, says Santamaria” (“He did think the Australian political system would work better with only two major parties – one conservative, one middle-of-the road Labor, including the DLP. An amalgam of the DLP and the Country Party seemed less desirable…”

    The Age, 9 Oct. “Lose and it will be long time out, Libs told.”

    (And for Glen … “CP will gain 5 seats: Anthony” – Age, 7 Oct, and “Polls may be wrong, says expert” – Age, 30 Oct)

    More to come, perhaps…

  20. VoterBoy – I don’t know whether to laugh or cry. I can only hope Rudd is a student of history. Which he seems, so far, to be.

    Hope the poms are treating you well!

  22. 167

    CL d F – no complaint from me. I stand by my prediction of 79 to ALP.

    Just interested as to the reason why ave it 07 is so sure.

    🙂

  23. CL de F @ #170.

    I won’t be laughing until the night, but the parallels are slightly eerie. AND by reviewing 72. I get an early glimpse of the last minute desperate dirty tricks that the Libs pull. Mind you, in this election (07), they started much, much earlier.

    Methinks a new slogan for Maxine and the ALP:

    “John Howard: Even More Desperate Than Billy McMahon”

    (And yes, the poms are treating me very well. So long as they pay me in sterling, I’m happy.)

  24. 166/172 – we English always call it right!

    More pertinently it is clear that ALP is doing better in seats where it has a remote chance of winning and less in the marginals. As we also know Coalition can win on 48/52.

    And of course the polls in Australia understate coalition just as polls in England underestimate Con and in US underestimate Rep!

  26. Let’s put to bed any notion that any of the four major polling organisations are deliberately biasing their results, as some people seem to be saying. They have too much at stake to want to do that.

  28. Ave it 07 @ 174 has some interesting points. But I think the polling has been too consistent for too long for any of these things to matter.
    I also doubt that the Libs can win with anything below 48 TPP, as some people seem to reckon. Even if some of the “marginals” hold on, there’ll be other seats that do what Lindsay did in ’96 and jump across the pendulum.

  32. Well with interest rates about to go up things are only going to get worse for the Liberals. Howard really needs to put distance between himself and his interest rate lie from the last election. So far his attempts have been poor:

    I didn’t actually make that promise myself (another lie)
    It is due to drought and high growth (these were present in 2004)

    Lets see if we can help:
    The dog ate my low interest rates
    Its due to the debt we inherited from Labor (oops, we paid it off already)
    Its due to world forces beyond our control (like the low rates were…)
    Who cares, I live in Kiribilli rent free! (hsi favourite; not ours)

    I agree the pol is accurate; there is no reason for any professional pollster to be biased, it is jsut that some use methodologies that favour certain groups. I have more concern about the reporting of results as far as bias goes.

  34. Ave it 07 – as they say in family planning circles, hope isn’t a method.

    VoterBoy – I suspect this is more an inverted 1996 than 1972, but then I distantly remember 1972 was quite a hoot. 1974 less so, 1975 complete disaster. Can’t quite see Ruddie as Gough, though. Or Swan as Jim Cairns. Keep that sterling rolling in, heaven knows we need it for the BoP.

  35. “There is but one quote that sums up this election and my feelings on the polls.

    “Serenity now, insanity later” -Lloyd Braun”

    Keep this up, Glen, and Tabitha’s likely to bung on an ugly little demarcation dispute.

  36. Julie

    There will be more libs like Hockey in the last days who suddenly discover integrity and independence and free thought in a desperate bid to save their seat.

  37. Arbie Jay – Hockey’s just in the Howard mould – promise anything and worry about it later. Integrity? What’s that?

  40. What Hockey’s doing is fairly normal politics I would have thought. Whether or not people believe him, that’s a different matter.

  41. Steve at 186 – a very intersting question.

    And which way ’round does he mean?

    He’ll resign if they make Workchoices more employer-friendly or if they make Workchoices more employee-friendly?

    Why hasn’t he resigned already – I mean they already introduced the fairness test?

  42. CL

    Agree, Hockey has displayed a total lack of integrity so far, especially in the pursuit of Rudd’s wife for political purposes, and more so with his refusal to release the analysis of Work Choices and AWA’s conducted by his own department.

    This plea by Hockey is more like a cry to North Sydney voters, but too little too late and very much like Howards similar plea to voters earlier this year of if you reelect me I promise to be good and behave with integrity this time.

  45. Steven, nice try but I don’t think it will work. The Australian newspaper and polls are rabidly pro government and only trying to neutralise the effect that yet another interest rate rise will have on Howard’s faltering (destroyed?) credibility.

    Using spin to deal with this will be seen for the desperate tactic it it. Successive rises have occurred on Howard’s watch, and has revealed him to be untrustworthy on interest rate matters. Now he is just proving how sneaky he can be too.

    It won’t work.

  46. Yes,CL I think it is best to avoid resignations if at all possible. After all, that was the message from Santo Santoro wasn’t it?

  48. Ave O7 – Polls in England and US can underestimate the conservative vote, because of one simple thing: Non-compulsory voting.

    Strong campaigns by non-Labor parties, such as the Republicans in 2004 to “get out the vote” can influence an outcome and not show up in the preceding polls. Unfortunately, or fortunately, Australians have to vote so you take that possible corruption of the poll system out.

  49. The Sham at the GG is again trying to polish the turd. He mentions the 45 – 42 primary vote but ignores the 2PP of a huge 54 – 46. He then goes on to repeat the same blatherings about the newspoll in the marginals. Tool!

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