Galaxy: 54-46

Today’s News Limited tabloids bring a nationwide Galaxy poll conducted from Friday through to Sunday, showing Labor’s leading increasing to 54-46 from 53-47 a fortnight ago. Sample was 1010; full details available here.

TWO-PARTY PRIMARY
ALP LNP ALP LNP
Nov 4
 54 46 45 42
Oct 19
 53 47 45 43
Sept 24
 56 44 46 40
Aug 27
 57 43 47 39
July 30
 54 46 44 41
July 2
 55 45 46 41
June 4
 53 47 44 42
May 14
 57 43 49 39
April 23
 58 42 49 37

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

662 comments on “Galaxy: 54-46”

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  2. ShowsOn Says @ 96

    AND that gave Rudd the best wedge:

    “What I’m stunned by with Mr Howard today is him hauling up the white flag in the fight against inflation by saying it’s unavoidable,” he said.

    “And what I’m stunned by today is Mr Howard owning no responsibility for his Government’s policy when it comes to the five interest rate rises that we’ve seen.”
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/11/04/2081213.htm

    And for some reason that is still the most popular story on the ABC site.

  3. [Therefore, a rate rise this week will play straight into the PM’s hands, because he won’t be blamed and will be able to point to the risks of electing Krudd and his motley band of cretins and thugs in these economically precarious times. ]

    Did you copy and paste this from the Liberal Party website? Couldn’t you at least provide a link?

    [Another interesting finding from the poll – 38% of respondents were not locked behind either major party. Plenty of those will swing behind the Coalition on election day.]

    Which will be cancelled out by the same amount who swing to Labor.

  4. Just going back to Galaxy and its trustworthiness. In both the Queensland and Victorian state elections Galaxy produced an early poll showing the parties were pretty much neck and neck. Come polling day in both cases it was a massive victory to Labor.

    There was no reason to believe in either case that such a big shift in voter support towards Labor had actually occurred during the campaign. It was most likely always there and for some mysterious reason Galaxy didn’t pick it up.

  6. [Glen having to share a lifeboat with Ackerman. Glen, trust me, I wouldn’t wish that on you]

    It could be worse, such as an intoxicated Christopher Pearson.

  7. ShowsOn, why bother responding to the obvious Liberal party desperado quoting numbers he doesn’t understand. Concentrate more on preparations for the upcoming party on election night. I know I am!

  9. I noticed the last couple of articles by Glen Milne have lost much of their venomn. Wonder if he is hoping for a job with Rudd’s team.

    {A raft of Canberra-based lobbyists and ALP officials also have been sounded out for senior roles in a Rudd government. }

    http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/story/0,23739,22701753-953,00.html

    And I loved this:

    {JOHN Howard has refused to say whether he will spend his final years in Parliament on the backbench if his Coalition Government is not returned on November 24.}

    {Mr Howard was again in Sydney yesterday campaigning in his local electorate – something party leaders rarely have to do.}

  10. More likely, we’ll be swimming towards Janet and Andrew who have already got their lifeboat as Turnbull and Costello have already seized the other ones. Something tells me i’ve got a better chance than him.

    What is it with Jurnos being so untidy i mean you have Oakes whose suit pants don’t come past his ankles when he sits down and Ackerman who has to untuck his shirt on national TV???

  12. Here’s the Milne story.

    {JOHN Howard is set to lose his seat at the November 24 election, having failed to make any headway in his northern Sydney seat of Bennelong against star Labor candidate Maxine McKew.}

    {With his political future in doubt, Mr Howard’s Sydney suburban home in Wollstonecraft is being renovated, perhaps in preparation for his return after 11 years of living at harbourside Kirribilli House and The Lodge in Canberra.}

    http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/story/0,23739,22697888-953,00.html

  14. Glen, is this what you think Howard is working on. Good luck!

    {But the shorter term strategy is that Mr Howard is laying some groundwork before an expected interest rate rise on Wednesday, creating a climate – he hopes – where people won’t sheet all the blame for a rise home to the Government, but accept that it is an inevitable result of factors largely beyond the Government’s control.

    It’s a fine line – convincing people that you are the best economic manager and that the economy is strong, while putting doubt in their minds about the future and convincing them that you largely have no control over (and therefore aren’t to blame for) the factors which may lead to a rise in interest rates.

    Mr Howard will know on Wednesday whether he has a safety net for his high-wire act or whether the Reserve Bank makes the walk more dangerous.}

    http://blogs.abc.net.au/thepollvault/2007/11/walking-a-fine-.html#more

  15. Glen – I’m off to bed but thanks for the laughs tonight mate. As Gary Bruce said earlier I don’t know how you do it. But it says a lot for your character that you can laugh at yourself and the situation when it must be so disappointing for you. I don’t know that I could do that.

  16. Mad Cow – most definately. I love French champagne, but with the amount of people coming over on the night, I’d need to max out the credit card to keep everyone happy! I have discovered an absolutely killer French bubbly, Bouvet Ladubay Saphir Brut Vintage, which costs, wait for it $19.99 per bottle. Sold through Nick’s wine merchants here in Melbourne (https://www.nicks.com.au/ProductDetail.aspx?ProductId=478820). If you visit the one in Armadale (High Street) let Nick know I sent you :-). Although not technically a champagne (sparkling wine from the Loire Valley) it rivals some of the best I’ve had. The wife and I live off this stuff (when I’m not enjoying a nice big Aussie red… or 10).

  17. The last two sets of Neilsen and Newspolls (mid to the end of October) polling 6,015 person confirms Labors primary at 48 and the LNP at 41/2
    I think the reality right now is 55/45

  19. I think that Glen Milne has got his life-jacket on, just in case the lifeboat has got dry-rot in it over the last 12 years and will probably sink too.

  20. Maxine will be canonised by Labor if she slays The Rodent in Bennelong. .. Ah, yes, I can hear it now: “Saint Maxine”. Got a nice ring to it, don’t you think?

  21. The Galaxy-bashing on this thread is tiresome.

    1) They don’t do ‘push-polling’, and neither do they engage in what is actually being alleged here, which is intentionally biasing polls. Suggesting they do is just spectacular ignorance.

    2) They have been quite brilliant on major party primaries at every election for 4 years.

    There is a persistent 2-2.5% average difference between the Labor primary in Newspoll/ACN and the Labor primary in Galaxy since mid-year. What that means is difficult to know (truth somewhere in between would be my guess) but accusing Galaxy of having a bad past record and/or being crook is just absurd.

  22. Milne, like a bunch of other media commentators, has blown his credibility with Labor. He has no chance of receiving any favours from them.

  24. {Maxine will be canonised by Labor if she slays The Rodent in Bennelong.}

    Peter Garrett will probably write a song about her. Go the oils! Go Maxine!

  25. I want to know why this poll doesn’t detect any gains in the Coalition Primary, along with ACNielsen and Newspoll. Doesn’t that make it an outlier?

  26. Leopold @121, That difference between Galaxy and the others is still there though, and I’d love to see a rational explanation of it.

  27. “Knowingly misled” = Lie.

    A Pretty strong suggestion in a question.

    Do you agree or disagree that John Howard knowingly
    misled the Australian public when he said that he would
    keep interest rates low?

    Supporters
    Total LNP ALP
    % % %
    Agree……………..42…..14…..64
    Disagree …………49……77…..31
    Uncommitted……..9……..9….. 5

    That is a lot of people thing Howard lied to the people and 14% of Liberal voters.

  28. Leopold (121)

    “(Galaxy) have been quite brilliant on major party primaries at every election for 4 years”

    Tiresome or not, in my opinion Galaxy have some explaining to do. Yes, they are very good when it really counts and they can’t afford to get it wrong, for the sake of their reputation (like the final poll before the election). But they have produced some real shockers along the way and “brilliant” is not a word I would apply to those performances.

  29. Every time Kevin Rudd gets hit on about Garrett’s gaffe, he should just hand ot a copy of this to each journalist and say, read this the answer is here!

    {HERE’S a serious question that should go to the heart of the federal election: what has happened to truth in government?

    But let’s not beat around the bush: when our government does not tell us the truth, it is not some minor vice, it is a corruption of democracy and it is to be thoroughly reviled.

    But what happens when the information put to voters is flawed? What happens when ballots, at least in part, are cast on the basis of untruths? In short, the elected government’s mandate is compromised. And when that happens the sovereignty of the Australian people is, in some way, usurped.

    Admittedly, very few governments in Australia’s history can claim an unimpeachable record in matters of public honesty. But over the past decade what we have witnessed is a federal government so cavalier in its disregard for public honesty as to reframe the entire issue.

    Perhaps most notable is the extraordinary notion of the non-core promise. To most sentient beings it’s a notion that could have been plucked straight from the pages of a Joseph Heller novel: a marriage of absurdity and moral bankruptcy that would be comic if it weren’t so abject and objectionable. Still, it’s a rather handy political device that has served the present Government to great effect. }

    http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22624036-5013999,00.html

  31. There is but one quote that sums up this election and my feelings on the polls.

    “Serenity now, insanity later” -Lloyd Braun

  33. okay – late night conspiracy theory time…

    Say I’m the boss of ‘Rocket Pollsters’ it’d be smart for my company to just do an ‘inexpensive’ job with the polls, reduced sample size etc, just cruise with what the others are saying… for 155 weeks of a ‘term’. Seriously, based on what Nielson and Newspoll plus Morgan, ‘Rocket Pollsters’ could do a good enough job. In the final week before election day, ramp it up, employ a few dozen extras, real spend! Do a sample of 10,000 ppl! Really get an accurate number. But suggest publicly, and this is important, that you’ve only sampled 1200 or so… day after election, all kudos to Rocket Pollsters and. more importantly, respect, credibility and all that power for the next 155 weeks…

    Afterall, there’s only one poll that counts…

    Okay, probably outlandish but why the hell not?

  35. And the Libs blame thbe states foir Haneef.

    [Font Size: Decrease Increase Print Page: Print Sean Parnell | November 05, 2007
    IMMIGRATION Minister Kevin Andrews has blamed sub-standard state health services for the reluctance of overseas-trained doctors to work in Australia, rather than his handling of the Haneef affair.

    Amid continuing controversy over the bungled detention of Mohamad Haneef, two medical groups claimed the dispute had caused a 90 per cent reduction in the number of overseas-trained doctors wanting to work in Australia.

    The Overseas and Australian Medical Graduates Association, in a joint statement yesterday with the United Indian Associations, said the backlash would exacerbate staffing shortages.

    “This spells disaster for an already overstretched and under-resourced medical workforce, particularly for rural and regional areas where many of these doctors are posted,” OAMGA president Nagamma Prakash said.

    “In the various interviews given by the presidents of UIA and OAMGA to both national and international media, they predicted overseas doctors planning to arrive in Australia would reconsider their decision – they have been proved correct.” ]

    http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22702747-2702,00.html

  39. John Rocket Says @ 133

    If what you say is true and the Galaxy sampling of the minors always seems odd – then the AC Nielsen may be the most accurate reflection of reality during the year.

    Their October polling of 4,000 people – ALP 56/54/55 with primary 47/48/48 means not much has changed; a 1% reduction to 55/45 from September.

    We are still looking at a 55-54 on polling day unless Howard can gets someone to listen to him and, believe him.

  40. I will not blame Howard for the 6th interest rate rise since 2004, on Nov.07.
    But I also don’t give him any credit that he has boasted in the last 11 years on “economic management”

  41. Andrews is mad if he thinks people are not going to connect the Haneef case with this foreign doctor fear of coming to Australia. I guess Andrews will say next that all the doctors not coming are te.rro…ist.s so didn’t want to get caught.

  42. Frank – this is the real big issue now – what Howard claims, what he has done, what real control he has and, if he had a right to make his claims.

    Rudd can make a case that Howard has not been in control of the economy but the economy controlling him and, his claims misleading.

  43. frank. I think (and here is where media bias has more to do with things than any other issue) the majority of people still believe that the Liberal party are better economic managers. I also think its quite likely that a majority of people believe that interest rates aren’t controlled by the government.

    But, none of that matter. A majority of people believe John Howard is an unmitigated liar. And when their own people complain “but the people aren’t listening to us” what they can’t bring themselves to admit is.

    “In the interests of keeping power at any cost, our leader has lied, lied and lied, and his clever lawyer-like ways of avoiding responsibility for those lies has finally become mainstream”.

    If someone repeatedly lies, people stop listening. And that’s the whole basis behind the polls. As Howard said, “its about trust.” Now people just want to see the end of him.

  44. mad cow @ 138 🙂
    According to Galaxy, Labor and Coalition primary votes are pretty much close, 45-42 , and Labor has to rely on preference votes to extend its lead 🙁
    I feel a bit down / nervous on this.

  46. But Mad Cow one would be wise not to forget Rudd lying to Rosana Harris.
    They are politicians and they all do it, including Mr Rudd. So why focus on Howie all the time if you aren’t prepared to mention Rudd’s failings too.

    All that needs to be said about this election is…

    “Serenity Now, Insanity Later” – Lloyd Braun

    Sleep well ya’ll

  47. frank @144, the major 3rd party is the greens and their preferences are probably going to go 80%+ to labor. Have a look at the polls and the differences between the primary and 2PP. That should explain it.

  48. Glen, I’m not going to bother with that because you’ve had that out with the other parties here and they’ve dealt with it thoroughly.

  49. I have no idea of what Drewsey has been up to, again.

    I am certain, whatever, it is would be near fatal, for him, if not the bystanders.

    Reading on.

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