Galaxy: 54-46

Today’s News Limited tabloids bring a nationwide Galaxy poll conducted from Friday through to Sunday, showing Labor’s leading increasing to 54-46 from 53-47 a fortnight ago. Sample was 1010; full details available here.

Nov 4
54 46 45 42
Oct 19
53 47 45 43
Sept 24
56 44 46 40
Aug 27
57 43 47 39
July 30
54 46 44 41
July 2
55 45 46 41
June 4
53 47 44 42
May 14
57 43 49 39
April 23
58 42 49 37

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

662 comments on “Galaxy: 54-46”

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  1. Galaxy have been understating Labor’s primary vote for months in comparison to the other major polls. Does anyone know what it is on this occasion?

  2. It’s the narrowing……of the Libs chances. !

    Darn I agree ……these are pretty good numbers for the ALP coming from Galaxy. If as reported the Libs Primary vote has dropped that is not good news for the PM. The devil will be in the details.

  3. [Still we only have to make up 2% on 2PP before the Coalition has a chance at victory we aren’t licked yet!]

    And of course the National Party vote is too low. We don’t know what it is at this stage, but whatever figure it is, is too low by 2 or 3%. So really this poll is 50/50.

  4. We’ll probably have to wait until the treeware edition hits the pavement, darn.

    So glad this isn’t a low-flying rogue. My blood pressure likes the steady beat from the Drums of Doom.

  5. On face value good numbers for Labor (though it would be good to have more detail).
    Hard to see where Libs are going to get the 2-3 extra %age points they need between now and Nov 24.

  6. Im with you Sondeo, if the coalitions primary has fallen as reported, in a pollster which consistently understates ALP primary in comparison to the others (not sure why, sampling practice maybe?), then there is indeed an existential problem facing this sorry excuse for a government. Puts a smile on my face, for now.

  7. Even if the Coalitions primary vote has dropped, on the TPP figures it wouldn’t be by much and when taking into account MOE it would just be the same old result we have been looking at for quite a while now.

  8. Let It End there are 20 days between disaster and elation i am hoping for the later of the two but if the former happens then ill be scrambling and pushing my way towards getting into a lifeboat off SS Howard and try to swim to safety.

  9. That 2-3 extra %age points is only what is needed to get them within shouting distance. Not likely to happen given the ammo Labor has to unleash and the interest rate hike that will likely occur.

  10. Drop by, yes, it’s just the same old result. 60 or so polls in a row.
    As election day gets closer the Liberals’ chances get smaller.

  11. Labor is holding fire, apart from the Garrett & Garrett show their discipline is remarkable, when compared to previous elections. Howards been using a jackhammer, and still no wedge.

  12. What do people make of Howard planning not to attend the Melbourne Cup?

    I hope Rudd goes, just for the big race.

    To me this is another sign of how desperate Howard is – marginal seat campaigning has over taken visiting a major Australian cultural event.

  13. Portland and Centrebet both now have the ALP favourites to win 16 seats. Expect more to firm into favouritism over next few days, especially Page, Deakin, LaTrobe, Bowman

  14. Yes, one wonders what the Newspoll will show. Much of the same probably, hopefully slightly better. The better the ALP figures, the more entertaining the “Shana” is.

  15. ShowsOn,
    Not sure Howard had that much choice about the Cup. If he went it would not be that good a look, given the state of the campaign.
    What will be fascinating will be to see what spin the Govt tries to put on the interest rate rise (assuming it happens). They’ll have something ready.

  16. Okay first off where does this “Galaxy is understating Labors primary vote” BS come from???

    Take the numbers guys and deal with them, they probably are accurate. Love em or hate em, Galaxy was the closest poll to the actual election outcome last time. Just because you don’t like the results you don’t add a couple of % points for your team… otherwise you fall into the kook world of Glen.

    Secondly it will be interesting to see the effects of the Interest Rate rise. Don’t presume this will benefit Labor, if there is anything you can’t underestimate it’s the stupidity of the average voter.

  17. 31
    BMWofVictoria Says:
    I suspect he doesn’t want to be booed or worst seen drinking chardy which celeb while the RBA meets over rates.

    And then there is the association with the equine flu fiasco.

  18. Howard looked terrible and desperate on Insiders today, he won’t be looking any better tomorrow with this result on top of the Bennelong polls.

  19. Glen, Im sure your advise to the old man might be more helpful than anyone whose actually advising him now. That, or he’s just not listening.

  20. Galaxy was closest on TPP, not primary. Compare the polls, Galaxy is 3% below Newspoll and AC, 4% below Morgan (but Morgan is just a Menshevik putsch isnt it?)

  21. Considering all,it’s business as usual,my tip,the ALP primary vote is holding up fine,this is another appalling poll for the coalition.
    And,BTW,who says the Nations vote can’t collapse as well.After all,our country cousins have to wake up one day to what’s been happening to them curtesy of the Nationals for the past 15 years.Sooner or later the extent of the betrayal has to become apparent.November 24 may well contain the overdue seeds for the implosion of the NPA.Let’s wait and see.

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