Today’s News Limited tabloids bring a nationwide Galaxy poll conducted from Friday through to Sunday, showing Labor’s leading increasing to 54-46 from 53-47 a fortnight ago. Sample was 1010; full details available here.
| TWO-PARTY | PRIMARY | ||||
| ALP | LNP | ALP | LNP | ||
|
Nov 4
|
54 | 46 | 45 | 42 | |
|
Oct 19
|
53 | 47 | 45 | 43 | |
|
Sept 24
|
56 | 44 | 46 | 40 | |
|
Aug 27
|
57 | 43 | 47 | 39 | |
|
July 30
|
54 | 46 | 44 | 41 | |
|
July 2
|
55 | 45 | 46 | 41 | |
|
June 4
|
53 | 47 | 44 | 42 | |
|
May 14
|
57 | 43 | 49 | 39 | |
|
April 23
|
58 | 42 | 49 | 37 | |
will @ 414
i enjoyed reading your post.
welcome
Alex McDonnel there is a difference between saying someone was partly responsible for their predicament not for their mental illness but for their inability to manage their illness properly and to say they brought it on themselves because of their illness. I hope you take this into consideration while you are rearranging my face should we ever meet.
Actually Glen, his very first act as Chancellor was to bring in sterilisation for the mentally ill. Euthanasia came later. By demonising people for their illness, he has able eventually to convince people like you that killing them was in the German peoples best interests.
[Oh course i disagree with such harsh methods, but i believe that ‘when it comes to’ mental illness the State and the individual have a dual responsibility to manage their illness.]
I for one am happy to assist in managing the mental illness and apparent Alzheimer’s of Unkie Howard.
I am writing him a prescription of 11 years worth of chickens coming home to roost and a program of shattered delusions of grandeur.
cynic, that’s been the case for a long time. Depsite it, the ALP still leads comfortably.
Diminishing Federal contributions through the health agreement, abject failure to deliver substantial change after release of the April 2006 Senate Report on Mental Health, but more importantly, the strategic positioning of the Federal Government to outsource all rapidly escalating chronic health cost centres while holding onto only the comparatively stable costs associated with end of life.
Diogenes i think we are getting way off track we should be talking about the fall in the Tory primary vote and the stagnant Labor primary vote.
[Can we please stop feeding the Lib cretin?]
Yeah, leave this level of twerpy thick ‘daddy told me’ bul.sh.t to the branch meetings of the young liberals. Its embarressing.
Glen @457
“the stagnant Labor primary”
Just gold…..i hear Don Bradman’s average ‘stagnated’ around 99.94….
Dario
i know uhlmann etc are gone,but guys like levi were impartial up till this week (i listen a lot) thats why I thought a CT makeover may have been applied to the regionals-have other bloggers noticed same?
[Passthepopcorn 334, I was trying to make a broader philospohical point about wanting to live in a society in which homeless people are helped, therefore it is, in that sense about me, and about all of us and the sort of country in which we want to live]
yes, liz, i get that. with respect, you sound like a social worker.
Nothing like a social worker. Though, there’s nothin wrong with that.
Glen & Nostro, I don’t think this belting-the-homeless caper is helping your cause.
Rather it exposes the pair of you as, well, completely devoid of any compassion for people who’ve had to do it pretty hard. There’s quite a few of them out there, and they’re not all lazy sods. Many are people with mental illness, young people and women escaping abusive situations, people who’ve just had a few crappy breaks (like losing their jobs).
What you fail to recognise is that no-one chooses to be homeless. They don’t just wake-up one day and say to themselves: “Gee, wouldn’t it be a great idea to go and live on a park bench and eat out of rubbish bins.”
So, are you guys representative of what it means to be a Liberal today or what?
If so, I don’t think John Stuart Mill would approve. Maggie Thatcher might, but look what happened to her: Put down by her own party for the good of the same.
why do you guys bother feeding Glenn the troll. Youve successfully allowed this thread (about a 54/46 Galaxy poll- NOT good for Howard) to be hijacked into a discussion on race, mental illness and homelessness. If you dont respond to his posts, he may just go away
Liz – I’m with you.
And I’m an investment banker – about as far from Social Worker as you can get!!!
How many times has Howard changed his core election message during this campaign so far?
His messages are all garbled. One minute we hear that the economy is going so great that we could end up with an unemployment rate with a “3” in front of it, and only Howard can deliver this. The next minute, news on the economic front is apparently not so great, and therefore we need Howard and his “experience” in order to limit the damage. And then, on one day, Howard is suggesting that WorkChoices has limited wage rises, which has helped to keep inflation from being much worse. And then on a different day, either he or Hockey are saying that WorkChoices delivers higher wages. A while back, Howard and Costello were pointing to their economic management as being responsible for limiting inflation, when figures were not too high, and now, Howard says they are outside his control. And on and on it goes…
Howard is destroying his credibility on matters of economics because he keeps changing his story in order to limit the political fallout on any given day. Either he doesn’t have a good understanding of economics or he really will say anything, and lie, in order to be re-elected.
Why should anyone vote for a man who wants nothing other than to be PM simply for the sake of being PM? There are probably thousands of Australians who would equally like to be PM simply for the sake of having power and luxury. What makes Howard special? Why him? I really do wonder sometimes why we have as many as 46% of people still planning to vote for or preference Howard.
At any rate, Rudd has started to talk about the mixed messages from Howard, but it’s only the tip of the iceberg:
http://www.theage.com.au/news/federal-election-2007-news/pms-big-interest-rate-con/2007/11/05/1194117913943.html
I have opened my sportingbet account (thanks to Alan H of yesterday’s Bennelong blog) and placed my free $100 (you need only $30 to start your account) on Maxine McKew. If she wins, I’ll contribute some of my winnings to William!
Glen, have you considered that in making absurd statements that you could not possibly personally believe (e.g. that you “don’t care what happened in relation to [the SIEV X] incident”), you are: (a) very clumsily and childishly exposing your role as a Young Liberal provocateur and diversion troll; (b) desperately seeking attention, in the manner of a hyperactive pre-teen, by becoming more and more abusive, demeaning (e.g. of Cornelia Rau) and shrill; and (c) acting against your own Young Liberal plan by providing the sophisticated commentators on this site with a platform on which to re-express, and often deepen and intensify, their convictions and to thereby strengthen their solidarity?
Did the Howard Government allow 300 odd people to drown in order to create a re-election event?
Liz, Im also with you. And I’m a plastic surgeon which is even further from a social worker then an investment banker!
This Glen is obviously from the Alex Hawke faction. They really must do something about their roster system. I think it just shows how short they are of personnel.
Howard isn’t responsible for the homeless mentally ill.
Well lets see if you have a person who suffers Mental illness and due to this condition they are unable to contact Centrelink and Centrelink following Howard’s procedures and cut off this person pension then how can Howard not be responsible.
This person was found in a very poor state yet Centrelink had found it too easy too cut off the pension then to find out why they hadn’t been in contact.
Now thanks to the excellent work of certain persons I wont name, Centrelink (the department which never admits to a mistake)
sounds familiar 😉
That person was able to get the care they needed, not from the federal Govt but by a State Govt agencies so while the Federal agency just flicked the switch leaving the State agency to pick up the pieces.
Yes, I know that State Govt is mostly responsible for Social policy but the Federal Govt have a clear responsibly to look after all.
It is fully responsible for pensions and Mental illness isn’t like the common cold, also if the federals are so worried by mental illness why are Psychologist not claimable against Medicare, well this is so Howard like, it is but Howard doesn’t want too many to know this.
20% percent of the population suffer a mental illness of some sort.
What sought of Govt is it.
Howard deserves to lose!
The Liberal Party need more people in the Conservative Right faction.
445
red wombat Says:
November 5th, 2007 at 2:58 pm
Can we please stop feeding the Lib cretin?
I agree, why is everyone pandering to the stupid jumped up little twits’ ego. The sad twerp obviously hasn’t any friends and is more than likely ignored by everyone he has contact with in real life. So he comes on this site and plays you all for fools making racist and negative statements to get you to bite, which feeds his mental illness of delusions of granduer.
I have been enjoying the comments on this site for the past week or so but you have allowed this moron who writes under the names of Glen, Tabitha. nostrils etc to take over and is all becoming a big bore….
There’s no point even trying to reason with Glen and Nostra. They have felt disheartened ever since the government first tanked in the polls. Winding up non-Liberal voters is their way of gaining some kind of satisfaction. It is revenge.
This is why they spend time on a blog where the vast majority of people are non-Liberal voters rather than Ackerman’s or Bolt’s blogs.
Posts 414 (Will) & 442 (Sean) concern me even allowing for the context (a response to a very partisan Liberal blogger). Well intentioned support for one side of politics (predominantly for the Australian Labor Party on this blog) is fair enough. However, to categorise the other side (a little less than half the voting population on current opinion polling figures) as lacking compassion, being greedy and not caring for the country as whole is, as I see it, another form of mud slinging and name calling. It is also divisive and plainly an incorrect generalisation. Further, it is a practice to be avoided because those who do it can too easily convince themselves that they always hold the ‘moral high ground’ over those who do not share their politics. That is pure self indulgence.
Ok, back onto polls, folks :):) …… Newspoll predictions? I will say 56 – 44, same as the most recent ACN and Morgan so for Newspoll, that is an increase of +2 back to Labor.
Newspoll ALP 55 – Libs with Nuts 45
Newspoll has been erratic lately. It could end up anywhere. But I don’t think the Garrett “gaffe” will be having an effect. For a start, I doubt many people even know about it. And second, Howard has a much worse reputation for going back on promises.
My guess would be a status quo result: 56 – 44 or 55 – 45.
Newspoll will be 54-46 again. Unchanged.
55.5 -45.5
55-45
Many thought there would be a narrowing towards the end, most of all Liberals, but the narrowing has only come back to a 55-45 massive lead for Labor.
The final result is still likely to be narrower between 53-47 and 54-46 with wide variations in different seats. Queensland is obviously the key and that may well be very significant for Kevin Rudd.
416 Greeensborough Growler. Brilliant deduction my dear Holmes.
I agree with others. Newspoll unchanged at 54-46.
The NEXT one, after the interest rate rise, will be the one to take notice of.
Antonio, some are trying to convince themselves that the interest rate rise can be turned into a plus for the Coalition! That would be the maddest spin of all. If there is indeed a rate increase it would take several days to sink in and for people to talk about it. The maximum impact would be on election day. It might bring the 55-45 result on the day after all. I still think 54-46 max though.
Glen 452 – re your face -may be you could do a deal with Diogenes!
Has anyone else seen the comment in Crikey today re a Senator Ronaldson telling a friend that, win or lose, Howard will be gone within a week. Do you think that will get a run in the MSM.
Nice comments, Will. Good luck.
Glen said:
This is EXACTLY why I despise the Howard government and many of those who support them. People like you Glen.
Until 2001 I had voted Labor only twice in 3 decades. For me the Lib’s gloss starting loosing its shine when they took over most of Hanson’s racist agenda, followed by Tampa and then the illegal war on Iraq. But what really made my blood boil were the calls following the Cronulla riots to deport foreign born Australian citizens if they broke Australian laws, a notion the Libs weren’t in any hurry to squash.
I couldn’t believe what I was hearing when a local radio host was spruiking the idea on air, so I called the program pointed out that my family arrived in this country when I was 2 yo, had become a citizen as soon as I could and had served in the ADF for 33 years, in part, because I wanted to give something back. So how dare this drongo say I wasn’t really an Australian because I hadn’t been born here! And what was the reply? “So what, you got paid didn’t you?” Yes, I was but I don’t remember getting any more than my locally born peers to compensate for risking my neck while not having full citizenship rights. And it certainly wasn’t anything like what I could have got working for Qantas.
But you know the really disturbing part Glen, for the next hour most of the callers agreed with the F#**wit.
That is what the Howard government has done to this country, Glen. They, and you and your ilk, should be very, very ashamed.
I have only recently (about 3 weeks ago) started reading the blogs on this site (got to know about Pollbludger through Possums Pollytics). I must say this in one of the most informative (and fun) sites and between Poss and Pollbludger I get all the useful information and analyses I need about Elections 2007. So thank you William and other contributors. I live in Adelaide and it looks like we are up for a big swing to ALP. I also think Christopher Payne is in serious danger of losing his seat (probably be determined by FF preferences).
Absolutely no chance in the world that Newspoll will be unchanged. Outside chance of 55/45 but most likely 56/44 or better for ALP
447 Glen. Tory and commonsense. Now thats an oxymoron.
David Charles
If you think glens comments reflect the opinion of half of the australian electorate then I think you’re the one who is slandering people. Glen is welcome here, he can even post, but if the standard drops to a certain level where he is clearly spouting prejudiced illogical and nonfactual nonsense then its valid to question why he should get any attention.
The movement in Newspolls has seemed to be for whoever has been in the press, whether their coverage be good or bad, for the past several weeks. So I wouldn’t be surprised if Labor is up a point or two on the back of both Roxon and Garrett’s press.
487 Su,
Does this Senator say *why* he thinks Howard will be gone within a week if they win? The “if they lose” option is obvious 😉 ……
love it Chris, or the sensible conservative.
I’m pretty sure Ronaldson, who comes from Ballarat, is a Costello supporter. He’s pretty influential behind the scenes.
Here, here Mayo,
This primevil minister will be remembered as the most devisive, racist, unethical, dictator in Australia’s history. Not a kind word can be said for this mean little hypocrtit and his bunch of merry prixs!
Banished forever into the primevil slime he has come from.
Yes Richard #485 it’s bizarre logic to suggest that an interest rate rise will bring more support for the coalition. If that was the case, they should be promising higher taxes and a recession, on the basis that the worse it gets, the more we need the coalition.
The only time this logic worked was in 1993, when Keating managed to convince voters that Hewson’s “cure” for the economy was worse than Labor’s malaise.
Hewson was effectively offering WorkChoices, as well as a 10% public service job cut and a 15% GST. Rudd certainly isn’t saddled with any of that.
It’s a brave bludger who’d predict an unchanged Newspoll. They’ve been bouncing around like a panel van in schoolies week. I’m guessing wildly at a high outlier… say 57 ALP – 43 Abusers of the Homeless and the Sick.
Julie – no other comment, just that Howard will be gone in a week. Maybe that was why Howard was so defensive about his agreement with Costello on Insiders yesterday. If he wins Bennelong and the polls are right about the swing elsewhere then the knives will be well and truly out and he could be gone either by stepping down or being made to. I can’t see him staying to sit in Opposition.