Galaxy: 54-46

Today’s News Limited tabloids bring a nationwide Galaxy poll conducted from Friday through to Sunday, showing Labor’s leading increasing to 54-46 from 53-47 a fortnight ago. Sample was 1010; full details available here.

TWO-PARTY PRIMARY
ALP LNP ALP LNP
Nov 4
 54 46 45 42
Oct 19
 53 47 45 43
Sept 24
 56 44 46 40
Aug 27
 57 43 47 39
July 30
 54 46 44 41
July 2
 55 45 46 41
June 4
 53 47 44 42
May 14
 57 43 49 39
April 23
 58 42 49 37

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

662 comments on “Galaxy: 54-46”

Comments Page 11 of 14
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  4. I’ll go with Newspoll back to 58-42, just because I love the sound of Tory wailing and gnashing of teeth.

    Dennis to go for “Howard Supported by Over 5 Million Voters” Headline.

  5. As we arrive at the end of his reign I’d like to add this little piece.

    Decisions John Howard has made that I am very happy with. And these are pure trivia.

    1 – He made the public service use the word ‘programme’ again after the word program was being used in basically all official documents. I liked that.

    2 – Howard may wear the rugby union tracksuit, and try to commentate cricket, but his favourite sport is actually soccer. Being a huge soccer fan, I am glad that the PM refers to the sport as football, takes it seriously and has promoted it a lot in Australia. He’s lent some legitimacy to it. For example, (I believe and could be wrong on this) he officially changed the Australian english word for soccer to football. Plus he showed up at the A-League Grand Final and presented the trophy (despite receiving a resounding chorus of boos from the Melbourne crowd for his troubles).

    Maybe I could think of more stuff if I tried.

    Howard’s lowest moment

    Wrapping himself in the flag in 2001, and relying on September 11 and the Tampa and generally being dishonest in saving himself from defeat, panic-mongering the electorat and playing off and stoking racist fears to get people into voting for the Government. Perhaps its sadder, though, that the Australian people believed him.

    There hasn’t been, in my opinion, a worse moment since I was born.

    There are a few more but this one stands out.

  6. I’ve heard the suggestion that if Labor romp it in with a big margin, that Cossie will pull the pin early in the next term to go into private business, rather than risk sticking around as opposition leader and face an election in three years he knows he wont be able to win.

  7. I agree with the proposition that Howard will be gone quickly whatever the outcome. If the Libs win and he keeps his seat, he will still be pushed out the door very quickly by his party. If the Libs win and he loses his seat, no one in the Libs will be offering him their seat so he can stay on. If Labor wins, irrespective of whether he wins his seat, he will be gone in a flash.
    Also, on election night, Howard won’t make a concesion speech. He will deny the outcome on the night saying somehing like ‘we have to wait for the postal votes to come in’. Then, the following day he will quit without any public statement and disappear from view for a very long time. Good.

  8. Uh oh. The program/programme genie is out of the bottle. ‘Programme’ is actually a wanky 19th century Frenchified affectation. ‘Program’ is the original and correct spelling, from the Greek(?) root. I can find links if you want to argue…

  10. “Noocat Says:
    November 5th, 2007 at 3:40 pm

    There’s no point even trying to reason with Glen and Nostra …” exactly!!

    I just bet my free $100 on Maxine 😉

  12. Crispy is right. “Program” is more commonly used, and “programme” is an affectation.

    The Macquarie Dictoriary says: “Until recently, programme was widely considered the British spelling, and program the American. There are those who like to retain the former spelling for all meanings apart from those which relate to computers, but many people have adopted the spelling program in all cases.”

    Get with the program.

  13. What are you saying Diogenes! That Cossie’s not a born statesman? The punters’ll LOVE him once he’s had the long-delayed chin surgery and frontal lobe extraction.

    Cossie the BBQ legend. Everybody’s mate. Hawkie in a pin stripe. I’m telling you, he’ll be a ding dong winner once the vermin’s smoked out of Kirribilli.

  15. There would now be a strong incentive for libs to start distancing themselves from the Rodent with a view to positioning themselves in the post rat era. Ronaldson’s comment should probably be seen in that light…..as with Turnbulls leaking of the cabinet discussion. I imagine howard is an object of strong hatred for many of his colleagues and that they rue the fact that they didn’t boot him after APEC when they had the chance.

  16. 378
    Glen Says:
    November 5th, 2007 at 2:04 pm

    ‘Cundall was a Tasmanian Senate candidate for the Communist Party of Australia. He also supports many left wing political and environmental groups by speaking at rallies and events. He is a keen environmentalist.’
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peter_Cundall#Political_career
    Just to back up my claim he is a lefty, and that it was not a smear.
    …
    Glen, i’m surprised that you could imply that being called left-wing is in some way insulting. Maybe in the barking-mad branch of the Liberal party, it is not a polite thing to say. But in the rest of society, having leftward inclinations is a sign that human decency still exists.

  17. Re interest rates:
    Recalling Teh Furry One’s graph tracking interest rates alongside ALP primary vote, Team Rodent are collectively rooting themselves with the spin “we never knowingly done it” they are dishing in response to the Galaxy push-polling (cf. Bryce 243)

    Strategically stupid; deliciously ironic.

  19. Howard is always banging on about Aussie values. So its interesting how Rudd’s homeless policy has exposed the Howard Liberals’ (especially those posting here) lack of respect for the greatest Aussie value – mateship!

    As defined by the government’s own culture.gov.au site, mateship is “a sense of shared experience, mutual respect and unconditional assistance.

  20. On the subject of what the Libs will do when they lose, are you all familiar with the zoological phenomenon of the “ratking”? I kid you not! Its when there are too many rats are in an enclosed space and their tails start knotting mixed with their excrement. They become one organism that must move together and when one rat dies, the others eat it to stop it being a dead weight. There are normally only ten or so rats but there can be up to 30. It reminds me of the Liberal party. And if you dont believe me…
    http://everything2.com/index.pl?node_id=611381

  21. Based on Bryan’s analysis of his 5 favourite bookies from yesterday, 3 have moved in ALP’s favour, 1 in LNP’s and another is even. Not sure if they are leaked the result, but I strongly suspect it. Maybe they havent got it yet, or my mind has instilled a fantasy in my perception of reality. Insert conspiracy theories here;

  22. “Also, on election night, Howard won’t make a concesion speech. He will deny the outcome on the night saying somehing like ‘we have to wait for the postal votes to come in’. Then, the following day he will quit without any public statement and disappear from view for a very long time.”

    507, Alex, everyone and their mother knows that convention is that the winner doesn’t make his speech until the loser makes his first. No one would let Howard get away with this one, the media will be hounding both Labor and Liberal HQ that night.

    Now, I believe you “without any public statement for a very long time” :):) ……

  23. Lol at the program/programme debate.

    I just prefer programme! there you go! Me and Johnny can agree on something.

    Also, Howard made ‘football’ the official word the same way he made programme the official word. Johnny warren contributed to the popularity of the term and to just about everything else to do with the game.

    So is there a 100 dollar free bet deal with any of the bookies for the election? Because I’m happy to jump on Maxine’s odds in Bennelong.

  27. There is no way Howard will hang around in opposition. Even if he wins Bennelong, he won’t even attend the first sitting of parliament.

  28. Yes ruawake, those ads make me really angry. Howard has just put money into the AFP pre calling the election, and is running his agenda (nat sec, internet security…) through govt organisations. Sickening abuse of the caretaker protocols. Ive put down the baseball bat, and have picked up the electoral rifle. Though I will not be voting for the shooters party!

  30. David Charles @ 476

    what a ridiculous post.

    will was airing his feelings, and they are very widespread.

    Howard and anybody still supporting him has to wear his ugly baggage as well as his good baggage.

    John Howard has been a divisive and ugly leader.

    Between both sides of politics i would say the vast majority disagree with his ugly,divisive, uncaring policies.

    and that includes a lot of Libs who will still vote for the Party.

  31. TofK re AFP – there’s a building on Anzac Parade in Canberra which had been vacant for many years – i think it was last year that refurbishment commenced to house the greatly expanded AFP.

    I had an AFP guy in the taxi last week and, as we passed that building he commented that, because the AFP has increased from 2,500 to over 6,000 since 2001, that building was now not big enough. Anybodies guess what money was wasted.

  32. Newspoll prediction – let’s go way out there – 58-42.

    Primaries: 50-39

    Hope so. Lateline should be fun if that comes true. Maybe Howard will get axed tomorrow under cover of the horses …

  33. Programme for me. It must be the lattes. Can’t believe Howard would be one too. Surely that’s an ay-leet spelling and should be mocked and marginalised at all costs.

  34. Ratsak – remember Howard loves the old country and all its ways. Program is after all an Americanism, and although he also loves GWB he is still probably hoping QE2 makes him Lord Warden of the Cinque Ports, too … Hyacinth would love it!

  35. Newspoll will probably be better than Galaxy, but not THAT much better. As it was taken on the same weekend as Galaxy, it’s likely to be 56-44 or 55-45.

    With regard to the Galaxy, and the interest rate question, when they ask “which of the following is MAINLY to blame?” I believe that many people would blame the govt to some extent, but, given 4 options, they have to decide which they blame most. This obviously produces a low “blame Howard” number.

  36. [With regard to the Galaxy, and the interest rate question, when they ask “which of the following is MAINLY to blame?”]

    Why do they give options? Why don’t they just ask the question, and see what the persons first response is?

    As soon as you give options, it makes people think it is one thing or the other.

  37. Ratsak

    “The sailors of the Cinque Ports were granted “special privelages” by the Crown … ” “These “special privelages” [sic] entitled the men who fought to basically do what they wanted – they did not pay tax, and were (legally) entitled to take possession of any flotsam or plunder any captured enemy vessel.”
    Martin Grieve, 8 July 2006

    Sound like anyone you know ?? 😉

  39. Did anyone notice that John Howard did not mention union bosses once during his interview with Barry Cassidy on Insiders or have I begun to switch off that phrase?

  40. CL, I strongly suspect that Citizen Howard (as opposed to PM Howard) won’t be getting a Christmas card from Betty Windsor this year. I doubt she is a huge fan of his.

    I’ve also wondered just what she really thought of Ming.

  42. Mayoferal @ 488, ive been banned by that “shockjock” for daring to disagree with him over the Iraq war, i was quite polite and said as a war widow i had marched against our involvement, for my trouble i recieved a torrent of abuse and was told never to ring him again, if i remember rightly one of the more polite terms he called me was a terrorist sympathiser, i’m a rather quiet reserved person and never step into the public domain unless it’s important to me, ive spent far too much time in the public eye.
    actually i got a tiny bit of revenge and satisfaction when he approached me much later to come on the program to talk about Von Einam and his high jinks in gaol, i must admit i gleefully told him to get stuffed, but i put it a teensy bit cruder than that lol.

  43. 536, Mum complains about this sometimes; she really hates being put in one box. At the moment, only Morgan does anything in qualitative polling, and he gives comments from electors on some of his polls. None of the other pollsters do anything qualitative, it’s either this box or that box that people have to jump into. The parties would do more qualitative stuff which we don’t see much of.

  44. 539 Tim, it may be that Lib internals are showing that talking about unions isn’t resonating at all. The recent ACN said that 60% weren’t concerned by unions and 51% thought that Rudd would be able to handle them. This was published in Saturday’s Age, the day after the main poll results.

  46. Any predictions of the GG & Trash unlimited Corp. giving a resemblance of balanced coverage have been put to rest. Its ideology, not business considerations, that must be driving this agenda, Im sure they are losing many readers to fairfax over theyre shanahanagens.

  48. 524
    ruawake Says:
    November 5th, 2007 at 4:52 pm
    Just saw a national security ad – not a Govt ad anymore but authorised by Mock Keelty AFP.

    Sneaky Ratties.

    Crikey.com did hint that Howard might try and produce some big emotion grabbing wedge this week.

    Howard may think his only hope now is something drastic. The AFP raising the profile of National Security at the begining of the week tweaks my interest.

    Hopefully the Melbourne cup is nice and peaceful with no silly business.

  49. C’mon, loosen up people!
    Maybe we ought to cut Glen a little slack here.
    His humanity towards Cornelia Rau is constrained only by the ugliness of his soul.

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