Rise and fall

With today’s consumer price index figures said by analysts to make a Melbourne Cup interest rates hike extremely likely, Crikey offers another round of Roy Morgan data mining, this time ranking electorates in order of respondents’ various economic concerns. Morgan has also aggregated its September polling to provide state and country/city breakdowns. Also in the mail today is the latest Reuters poll trend, a weighted aggregate of Newspoll, ACNielsen and Roy Morgan. It shows essentially no change from the October 10 result, with Labor on 56.6 per cent of two party preferred (up 0.1 per cent) and 48.6 per cent of the primary vote (down 0.1 per cent), and the Coalition primary vote steady on 39.1 per cent.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

460 comments on “Rise and fall”

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  1. BetFair has updated their odds on RBA November
    interest rate change:
    No Change: $2.32
    Rise 0.25%: $1.25

    Around mid-day today, the odds were:
    NoChange: $2.1 / Rise.25%:$1.35

  6. Scotty Says:
    October 24th, 2007 at 6:57 pm

    I have not been monitoring the performance of Morgan and limited for some years now but 15 years ago there were real issues concerning the Morgan polls which regulatory showed up various anominalies in the data. They always tended to overstate the ALP vote in what was considered by some to be an attempt top influence the outcome by providing an inflated projection. Whilst it is always interesting to follow the polls the fact remains that the general swing means as little or as much as measuring the average temperature across Australia. The fact remains that the micro climate varies significantly from region to regions/ Electorate to electorate. the breakdown of polls into electorates is of more interest.

    I have found that most public opinion polls are only really good to ascertain the results of the Senate. But again they need to be broken down into State electorates. The split between City and Country published by Morgan makes this task difficult to undertake.

    Off the top of my head and subject to the finalisation of Above-the-line preferences the Greens need to secure more then 8.5% of the ballot to secure the last spot. They need the ALP to top 43% in order to collect the ALP surplus (Currently the ALP in Vic is showing at around 52% to 53% a potential surplus of 10%. if this holds the Greens could be feeding the ALP or the ALP surplus will become part of the wasted 14% quota)

    If the Liberal Party/NP vote is lower then 36% then they might pickup on Liberal Preferences depending on the level of support of the NP who would be expected to collect any Liberal surplus before the Greens. Chances are the Greens could once again fall short.

    We should know the exact thresholds once the registered above-the-line preference data is available. Using the available poll results we can then calculate the required thresholds.

  8. Julie @247,

    To re work the old joke….

    Howard and Shanahan are surrounded by 1000 rampaging ALP types wielding the latest polls with messianic fervour.

    Howard turns to his faithful companion and says “Looks like the jig is up and these ALP types are about to do us over”.

    Shanahan replies “what do you mean we, Liberal scum”.

  12. Possum whilst you are right on comparative advantage which i agree with you but I see no advantage in selling our products overseas for someone elses benefit and yes it is China but not only them and whilst you use the argument about cheap imports what about making great products and selling them to markets like Sweden or Japan or ourselves…
    Look at these countries surely they have not got significant advantage regarding land and resources that we have… population yes to a degree…
    Especially Sweden… worldclass companies such as Nokia
    We should be investing in education and intellectual capacity but instead we are to busy investing in tax cuts, freeways and flags in schools…and we are to busy watching Australian Idol and Big Brother…
    And we don’t the people well that is why 30 per cent of the workforce is on casual employment…
    And regarding interest rates don’t disagree that domestic situations have an affect and the dollar due to our geograpical position in the world, the drought also will also have an affect on these inflationary effects.. but sorry my view regarding foreign debt is different and believe it has an affect..
    And this view that no one has talked about the relationship between government debt and interest rates well that for twenty years has been the main argument for the rationalists to reducing government debt….anyway enough said but you have made some good points which i agree with….

  14. Break out the beer, klaxons and those large happy fingers: Helen Coonan head to head with Anthony Albanese live, no punches pulled, in lycra with jelly on Lateline. (actually, no lycra)

    This has to be THE most riveting panel on Lateline EVER!!!

    Our good lady host seems pleased though – she’s interviewing real, live politicians. Pity she can’t say a word without stumbling over it…

  15. My only hope is that if Krudd wins his IR policy and his economic policy starts a recession so i can laugh at all the fools who elected Labor thinking they could manage the economy it will be priceless…maybe even a short lived Scullin administration could end up being Krudd’s legacy lol!

  19. Glen – dude – there’s going to be a recession anyway. Howard’s overheated the economy, China’s about to go bung – these things are global. Whether it’s Costello or Swan or whoever succeeds Costello (if they win) – there’s going to be a recession.

  20. 258,

    GG –

    “Howard turns to his faithful companion and says “Looks like the jig is up and these ALP types are about to do us over”.

    Shanahan replies “what do you mean we, Liberal scum”.”

    Ah, yes, we will have to see what he writes in the morning 😉 … It does seem though, at least by his standards which are different from most, that he is beginning to peek at political life without his rose coloured glasses now.

    It is raining here in Sydney tonight, probably the first rain we have seen in well over a month, perhaps 2 to 3 months. Seems appropriate as it was raining figuratively on the Libs today 😉

  21. Re comments about media rats, etc. (esp. Mr Shanahanahanhan)

    The Australian has a nice piece on this today. Clearly Gerard Henderson is being set up as the fall guy.

    http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22638826-5013948,00.html

    Shan Fein (Myself Alone), on the other hand, is given a get out of jail free card, as in ‘I told them to shift ages ago, but no one listened…’ He is truly, the Thinking Man’s Andrew Bolt.

  22. 255
    Ophuph Hucksake Says:
    October 24th, 2007 at 9:50 pm
    Bluebottle @237:

    Adam has already highlighted her – forget Cornes, check out

    this candidate!

    Ah, yeah, I want to go into slavery too now, how about it Glen, are u in ?

  23. charles,
    Labor promises better roads for Melbourne,

    WHen I was in Melbourne the only thing that I can honestly say was better about Melb than Sydney was the roads,
    Our roads in Sydney are horrific, maybe he should have prommised better roads for Sydney instead

  26. Coonan v Albanese what about Conroy… i was hoping to hear his vision regarding Broadband… and how he was planning to get Telstra to agree with regulation when in office and get them to allow competition in regional areas once broadband infrastructure was implemented.

  28. Just heard that Labor have selected a fourth Senate candidate in Victoria (Marg Lewis, who was a candidate for Northern Victoria in the last state upper house election). The fact that they’ve done this at such a late stage may or may not be an indicator as to what someone’s polling is telling them about Labor’s prospects in Victoria.

    (That said, even with the best plausible set of preferences – Greens preferencing Labor over Liberal, Family First splitting their ticket and Liberals preferencing Labor over Greens – one imagines Labor would need at least 48% primary to have any realistic chance of having enough of a surplus over the third quota. In turn, given the drift to minor parties between the House and the Senate, this means they probably need 52% or so primary in the HoR).

  29. Gaynor.

    Edwards great summary of the talents of Belinda Neal left out her only qualification for office. The husband “John” coyly referred to is John Della Bosca, right wing powerbroker in the infamous Sussex St machine headquarters of the NSW ALP.

    Re Ms Cornes of Boothby. Don’t write her off. A friend of mine in the electorate has met her and says she is very personable and intelligent in person. If a swing is on it will most probably allow her to surf to victory unless she has some outstandingly off-putting attributes. The election will in almost all electorates be Rudd versus Howard, with the individual candidates just proxies. I recall in 1972 in my then electorate a most unpleasant candidate being washed into office on the Whitlam swing. His personality only caught up with him, plus some newly revealed personal weaknesses (he was cheating on his wife and several kids with his campaign managers wife!) as the tide started to ebb in the 1974 double dissolution election. Cornes strikes me as precisely the kind of candidate the the ALP could use, a “non politician”, a battler who put herself through an education to achieve some success in life, and if succesfull in this election could take some shifting in future. Much of the criticism of her comes from those who criticise the ALP for being too inbred. She could be an antidote to that weakness.

  31. Read up on Dr. Patrcia Peterson [Ind. candidate]

    ” An academic who has researched and published political books and articles in journals internationally, she has worn many hats, including relationship expert on radio 2UE, a guest panelist on Beauty and the Beast and a karate expert teaching victims of domestic violence self-defence.”

    Oh my, all that and beautiful. The karate expert part is disturbing though. LOL.

  35. Marky at 262

    Marky – people will always watch Big Bogan

    That’s just life.As sad and depressing as it may be, it’s just the way it happens (and I cant complain, for some reason I’ve developed a liking for Californication and that strange show Supernatural)

    The vikings might have Nokia, but we have BHP.Each to their own at what they’re best at.

    A fair chunk of casual employment isnt a result of people not being able to find an alternative.A lot of it is actually people wanting to work casual hours because it suits their particular conditions in life. As a strange example, I suppose I’m actually working as a casual at the moment with my Crikey stuff and a few other bits and pieces.

    The ABS runs a great stat on the labour underutilisation rate. That is the best measure of how many people have jobs but want more hours and its the lowest it’s been for decades.

    With foreign debt, it’s not so much the debt you have, it’s what you do with it.

    Now I agree that we’ve p*ssed a fair whack of it right up the wall lately, with most of out foreign debt actually deriving from our banking (and financial intermediary) sector to fund, essentially, home loans.

    But that’s because it was cheaper to do it that than any alternative.

    It would be great of all that went into some kind of productive investment – but people will always need to buy homes and they just happened to do so using foreign capital sourced via their local bank.

    On that front, residential property investment should probably have a fair amount of its special treatment gutted in an ideal world – but we dont live in that ideal world, and any government that proposed to do such a thing wouldnt find themselves in government for much longer.

  40. SAID HANRAHAN by John O’Brien
    “We’ll all be rooned,” said Hanrahan,
    In accents most forlorn,
    Outside the church, ere Mass began,
    One frosty Sunday morn.

    The congregation stood about,
    Coat-collars to the ears,
    And talked of stock, and crops, and drought,
    As it had done for years.

    “It’s looking crook,” said Daniel Croke;
    “Bedad, it’s cruke, me lad,
    For never since the banks went broke
    Has seasons been so bad.”

    “It’s dry, all right,” said young O’Neil,
    With which astute remark
    He squatted down upon his heel
    And chewed a piece of bark.

    And so around the chorus ran
    “It’s keepin’ dry, no doubt.”
    “We’ll all be rooned,” said Hanrahan,
    “Before the year is out.”

    “The crops are done; ye’ll have your work
    To save one bag of grain;
    From here way out to Back-o’-Bourke
    They’re singin’ out for rain.

    “They’re singin’ out for rain,” he said,
    “And all the tanks are dry.”
    The congregation scratched its head,
    And gazed around the sky.

    “There won’t be grass, in any case,
    Enough to feed an ass;
    There’s not a blade on Casey’s place
    As I came down to Mass.”

    “If rain don’t come this month,” said Dan,
    And cleared his throat to speak –
    “We’ll all be rooned,” said Hanrahan,
    “If rain don’t come this week.”

    A heavy silence seemed to steal
    On all at this remark;
    And each man squatted on his heel,
    And chewed a piece of bark.

    “We want an inch of rain, we do,”
    O’Neil observed at last;
    But Croke “maintained” we wanted two
    To put the danger past.

    “If we don’t get three inches, man,
    Or four to break this drought,
    We’ll all be rooned,” said Hanrahan,
    “Before the year is out.”

    In God’s good time down came the rain;
    And all the afternoon
    On iron roof and window-pane
    It drummed a homely tune.

    And through the night it pattered still,
    And lightsome, gladsome elves
    On dripping spout and window-sill
    Kept talking to themselves.

    It pelted, pelted all day long,
    A-singing at its work,
    Till every heart took up the song
    Way out to Back-o’-Bourke.

    And every creek a banker ran,
    And dams filled overtop;
    “We’ll all be rooned,” said Hanrahan,
    “If this rain doesn’t stop.”

    And stop it did, in God’s good time;
    And spring came in to fold
    A mantle o’er the hills sublime
    Of green and pink and gold.

    And days went by on dancing feet,
    With harvest-hopes immense,
    And laughing eyes beheld the wheat
    Nid-nodding o’er the fence.

    And, oh, the smiles on every face,
    As happy lad and lass
    Through grass knee-deep on Casey’s place
    Went riding down to Mass.

    While round the church in clothes genteel
    Discoursed the men of mark,
    And each man squatted on his heel,
    And chewed his piece of bark.

    “There’ll be bush-fires for sure, me man,
    There will, without a doubt;
    We’ll all be rooned,” said Hanrahan,
    “Before the year is out.”

  42. CWFZ, Oates wasn’t a strong candidate, and like I said it’s pretty strong mortgage belt area – the interest rate scare bit hard. The suburbs around Campbelltown have been pretty good to Farmer, but at the State level it’s a lay down misere for Labor. I believe these areas will revert more to type than they have over the past few elections. Remember the seat was notionally Labor when Farmer won it. The issue will be how hard the Currans Hills, Narellan Vales, and so forth swing against Howard on rates.

    As Ben Raue says it’s 50-50. I think Farmer just will scrape back in, but Labor will rue not preselecting a candidate with a better profile.

  44. The Father of Lies

    An Aussie bloke died and went to heaven. As he stood in front of St. Peter at the Pearly Gates, he saw a huge wall of clocks behind the Celestial Guardian.

    The man asked, “What are all those clocks?”

    St. Peter answered, “Those are Lie-Clocks. Everyone on Earth has a Lie-Clock. Every time you lie the hands on your clock will move.”

    “Oh,” said the man, “Whose clock is that?”

    “That clock belongs to Phillip Adams. The hands have never moved, indicating that Phillip has never told a lie.”

    “Incredible,” said the man. “And whose clock is that one?”

    “That clock belongs to Harold Hark. The hands have moved once, indicating that in his long, honourable life he has only told one lie.”

    “Where’s John Howard’s clock?” asked the man.

    “John’s clock is in Jesus’s office. He’s using it as a ceiling fan.”

  45. Here is a question. How much and to what extent do you think the personal factor represents in an electorate… 5% at tops. I think the fact is that 80% of voters are wedded to their team irrespective of the candidate. this will be obviously tested in Corio Victoria where the disinfected incumbent is seeking re-election as an independent. he will need to peg back the ALP vote by 10 percent and the liberal vote by 15% to secure then 25%+ required to be in the preference hunt. The personal factor is a bit like the donkey vote, very marginal vote counts in a marginal electorate but marginal electorates in the absence of a very string local candidate like Ted Mack can only be won by the majors. An independent needs to secure around 33% of the primary vote in a thee way tie for a single member seat. In a more solid electorate of 60-65% they can manage an upset with 25% support as long as they can peg the main party below 50% and pick up all other preferences.

    I do not recall this happening much in a general election. A by-election yes but a main general election it is rare.

    But then the odds of winning lotto are greater and people still play in hope of winning.

  46. My my, seems freedom of information is only available as long as you don’t use it against the Govt;

    On October 18, the Great Barrier Reef Marine Park Authority (GBRMPA) knocked back Mr Garrett’s freedom of information (FOI) requests for documents on the effect of global warming on the reef and refused to waive an administration charge of more than $12,000.

    Federal Environment Minister Malcolm Turnbull said decisions on FOI applications to his department were made by officials and not by him.

    But in its judgment, GBRMPA said if the matters were of public concern, given the political climate, the information would assist the Labor Party.

    “In my view, given the current political context in which this request was made, it appears likely the documents have been sought by the applicant to assist with his political campaign in the lead-up to the impending federal election,” Fiona Macdonald, executive director of the Great Barrier Reef Marine Park Authority said.
    http://www.smh.com.au/news/National/Garrett-blocked-on-FOI-request/2007/10/24/1192941153203.html

  48. Melbcity – depends on the candidate.

    With Katter and Windsor – their personal vote is probably 80% of their entire vote.

    People like Warren Enstch (forgive the spelling) are probably worth 10% for his personal factor.

    But someone like Dana Vale, her vote is probably depressed because she’s such a dill.

  50. [My only hope is that if Krudd wins his IR policy and his economic policy starts a recession ]

    Stop believing the government’s hype.

    The government doesn’t have a foot to stand on; they have had NO policy for dealing with inflation while the economy grows.

    Everyone is starting to see them for what they are, economic dunces.

    Howard & Costello: Sub-Prime Minister & Bracket Creep

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