With today’s consumer price index figures said by analysts to make a Melbourne Cup interest rates hike extremely likely, Crikey offers another round of Roy Morgan data mining, this time ranking electorates in order of respondents’ various economic concerns. Morgan has also aggregated its September polling to provide state and country/city breakdowns. Also in the mail today is the latest Reuters poll trend, a weighted aggregate of Newspoll, ACNielsen and Roy Morgan. It shows essentially no change from the October 10 result, with Labor on 56.6 per cent of two party preferred (up 0.1 per cent) and 48.6 per cent of the primary vote (down 0.1 per cent), and the Coalition primary vote steady on 39.1 per cent.
Hang on, I thought you had to enrol under your real name?
None Of The Above should of course be put on top of the ballot paper out of principle 😉
Antony
I am assuming that at this point the Libeals are (probably) gone. But just to confirm, if you assume the last Newspoll is correct, has either side come back from 16 points down during the campaign and won before? Either way, can you confirm what is the biggest deficit either side has madeup during a campaign before?
Who is on lateline for the mid week election summary on Lateline?
304
The govt dill Coonan and Albanese
Steveo Says:
I am sure in this election you will get the promise, well at least from Labor, the Liberals are in some sort of alternate universe, gun turrets on each street corner looks like their sort of fair, as always, I bet getting the roads and gun turrets will be another matter.
This interest rate thing has really compounded a crap week for the coalition.
When the word ‘troubled’ starts to turn up preceding mentions of your campaign on TV, you know you are well on the way to an irreversible change in the tone of media commentary – and not in a good way.
Are there any economics folk still around?
Today Alan Kohler on Crikey said there may be two interest rate rises, one on November 7th, and another in December. Tony Delroy just repeated this claim.
My question is this. If there really is a chance of two interest rate rises in successive months, why doesn’t the R.B.A. increase the rate by 0.50% on November 7th, rather than 0.25%?
If it turns out that was too much, surely you could just cut the rate by 0.25% in January or February.
Does this now come down to politics? If the rate gets increased in November and December – irrespective of who is in government – then that would appear to be the least political intervention. i.e. the interst rate increases happwned twice, during and after the campaign.
Or am I totally missing something here?
James Says:
October 24th, 2007 at 7:06 pm
Yes Swings are never uniform in a single member electorate system (One reason why multi-member electorates are better) The system is very much geared to property/residence entitlement as opposed to reflecting voters intentions and diversity. It is like trying to present the weather by averaging the temperature across Australia. It can not be Done.
The Swing is of value in calculating the Senate vote. What are the chances of control of the Senate being reversed? Buckley and none.
Even if John loses his grip on the lodge the liberal party will still control the Senate until July 2008 and most likely for the full first term of a Rudd Government.
Poss @ 298.
I suspect after Nov 24 you could replace Dana Vale with Belinda Neal if the good folks of Robertson are desperate enough to vote Labor to get her home.
BTW has anyone heard any goss on Hughes? I would be far from shocked to hear Vale get tossed out.
ShowsOn Says:
October 24th, 2007 at 10:45 pm
If you apply the brakes you are best to do so slowly rather then quickly. Unless there is a the likely hood is an immediate collision.
[ShowsOn Says:
October 24th, 2007 at 10:45 pm
If you apply the brakes you are best to do so slowly rather then quickly. Unless there is a the likely hood is an immediate collision.]
So is the problem that we know we are going too fast but we don’t know what is ahead? 😛
Hey look: ‘new leadership’ for the Liberal party after Nov 24!
http://www.campbellnewman.com.au/
(ok…. its childish – but at least mine’s a real site)
As for Rodent nicknames anyone who was a kid growing up in the 80’s will remember Danger Mouse. Now that I have your attention do you rememebr his sidekick?…..Yup, that’s right: Penfold. El Rodent is the spitting image. A mate of mine even made a T-Shirt for my birthday once.. Think I’ve still got it. How much do ya reckon I’d get for it on E-bay?
Showson,
From the RBA stand point, “go early go often” works for inflation because its not only about curbing actual demand, but also inflation expectations, but in a way that doesnt scare the bejeesus out of people.
Give ’em a nudge with 25 basis points and see what happens, then give ’em another nudge if necesarry tends to work better than wacking them over the head with larger rises.
The RBA want to impact upon demand without jolting it – they would prefer as smooth a pullback as is possible to engineer because it keeps things ticking over and flowing in a relatively unharrassed way.
If you pull the big guns out and go with a 50 basis points rise and then soon after have to wind it back, it also reduces confidence in the RBA in terms of them knowing what they’re doing.And that’s not a good thing because sometimes the RBA can get away with not having to actually raise rates, but instead just come out and jawbone the market with the threat of raising rates in a speech or when the Governor goes before the Senate committee.The pen is mightier than the sword, sometimes the word is mightier than the trigger.
If confidence in the RBA was reduced, that jawboning effect would likewise reduce and we’d probably see more rises and cuts than we do at the moment.
And that’s not a good thing, the ideal is smoothness.
ShowsOn – I’m not expert on interest rates but I would suspect that the reserve bank are still worried about the global credit crunch. If it was only based on Australia’s economy they might go the half point. But they need to act now, and the balance is delicate. Australia’s interest rates are already among the highest in the western world – if the disjunction gets too high our dollar will just go up more and that could hurt. I can’t help thinking that there must be a bit of politics in it too. I think it would be a brave governor to recommend a full half point during an election. Of course its only money market commentators, who have their own biases, so who really knows?
I’ve got to hand it to Helen Coonan. Her ability to move her head and speak without snapping her neck while wearing 6 kilos of makeup is amazing.
Does this all mean Labor is going to win?
And here’s Penfold:
Hhahahah just saw Costello on Lateline saying that Labor would create more inflation, and ultimatley a recession… His plan of attack: “Well if you think THIS is bad, just think of how bad it could be!”
He may not be the most inspiring of speakers, but I thought Albanese argued a very good case on Lateline.
LEIGH SAYLES IN A GOLD SHIRT!
I thought Albanese’s point that there was no Minister for Infrastructure was interesting.
Yes Albanese tends to argue a good case when Rudd isnt behind him eating his own ear wax….
Have you got your 6 year old replying for you now Glen?
Incidentally, who that freak who occasionally stands nodding behind the PM – looks like a cross between Vincent Price and Lurch, with massive jowels and screwed up teeth?
Yeergh. He freaks me out every time.
315
A 50 basis points rise would do a hell of a lot more than just undermine confidence in the RBA Poss.
[Incidentally, who that freak who occasionally stands nodding behind the PM – looks like a cross between Vincent Price and Lurch, with massive jowels and screwed up teeth?
Yeergh. He freaks me out every time.]
His name is “Generic Nodding Dog”
whoever he is he doesnt eat his ear wax unlike some people…
Until 1984 candidates appeared on the ballot paper under their full name, since then they have been able use any version of their name they like. So Anthony John Abbott can run as Tony Abbott. It appears in fact that a candidate can run under any name at all, provided it is not a name calculated to deceive voters (I cannot run for Bennelong as John Howard) or likely to cause offense (I cannot run as Cecil F*cktheliberals or Lord Jesus Christ). The DRO can rule any candidate name as unacceptable. A candidate does not have to be an enrolled voter in the electorate where they are running (John Howard isn’t), and I don’t think they are required to be an enrolled voter at all, although they must be an Australian citizen.
When are we getting another poll?
[315
A 50 basis points rise would do a hell of a lot more than just undermine confidence in the RBA Poss.]
What would it do?
Other than stop people taking out mortgages that they can’t afford 😐
Glen, one too many me thinks.
Glen,
Dear oh dear. Gratuitous insults as a substitute for political debate.
The situation is so desperate, yet you Liberal intelligentsia are so preoccupied with the minutae of personal hygene that you ignore the fact that you are going to wake up dead on November 25.
The Libs are still strolling around the country as if they don’t understand that Labor have avoided wedges because they are not wearing underpants.
Seriously, this stiff upper lip stuff will see you Libs reduced to a rump. When are we gonna see some passion.
Albanese was actually quite calm and delivered his lines with practiced aplomb, I thought. Coonan looked like she’s got a plan alright, a retirement plan. Very uncomfortable and, yes, it’s amazing her face doesn’t constantly bounce off the table with the weight of the heavy duty spackfilla she’s using. Albanese could do with a new hairdresser, though. He seems to be seeing the same guy McMullan uses.
Really, how much longer can these clowns continue with the farce? I mean, military tech schools? 1916 is right, that’s the level of vision.
[Glen, one too many me thinks.]
Are you saying his Ribena fermented in his stomach!? 😛
Hhahahahahah Coonan has a plan for a plan!
Let it End,
That’s one way to put it.Blood on the currency floor comes to mind (among various other types of traders in forward markets everywhere)
Although in 99 they raised by 50, and in 94 I think they raised by 100 not once but twice!
The panic in the mortgage belt would be, er….. lively.
Coonan has no substance, how on earth does a clown like her get elected, she reminds me of a Rottweiler.
Rudd has no substance whatsoever….
What did Rudd do today??
He went to a school and said nothing…nothing!!!!!
Rudd is PR staged he wont do anything as Prime Minister unless the polls tell him what is popular…god help us all…especially considering after 1 term Gillard will want to be PM…
What did Howard do today?
Had a policy on defence technical colleges…some substance from John.
William do we really have to re-visit the ear wax theme?. It’s already been done to death.
Sean, I think Ratsak has answered your doubts. Nothing wrong with these after what many of us have been through in the past 9 years. LETP is also desperately hoping for a Labor win but not quite ready to believe it. He has some excuse, having the additional curse of supporting Fremantle.
But I think you can relax a little in your trepidations. there is absolutely no resemblance between this situation and 1998. Or 2001 or 2004 or 1969 for that matter. A lot of emphasis is place on the 2PP figures. Not only has Labor’s been 54-59 for a long sustained period (which never happened at any of the other recent elections), the primary has been solidly around 48.
Put bluntly, Labor is not going to lose with a primary vote around 48. In fact, I’ve always thought that they’d win with a primary around 45. Except in some three-cornered regionals, Labor will always pick up over 5 points of minor party preferences (Family First will not really change that). And my theory is also that most marginals, being middling in support to both majors, will fairly accurately reflect the state-wide trend: ie most marginals will probably see around 48 primary for Labor. On those sort of figures, Labor will win most marginal contests.
Porking the marginals as Textor-Howard are desperately trying will not be enough to save them for the Libs. Nor will popular local members (although on this account, I’d hope Bruce Bilson, a pretty decent type, might defy the trend). A lot of Howard’s 96ers who worked the marginals so well are now retired or retiring – so even that’s not working anyway.
There are a couple of exceptions (eg it is impossible to work out what’s happening in WA), but what marginal polling there has been has suggested Labor is well in front.
The other factor is of course Howard Fatigue. He has been the greatest wriggler of our time in avoiding responsibility for anything, but finally… finally, voters are seeing through him. And the sweetest irony is that it’s all of his own doing. He could have got out. He didn’t need Workchoices…
Workchoices was the turning point. Some posters here are probably right that it is not the only or even the primary reason for vote change. He burnt up all his credibility on that. People no longer believed him. So the Save the Children aboriginal campaign flopped, Haneef didn’t get off the ground, the Nuclear Solution for Global Warming failed, the Gunns Pulp Mill failed to ignite and provided a wedge for his own party. The Mersey Hospital farce lokked exactly like what it was. And Andrews looked a right dork trying to dog whistle on Sudanese migrants. Nobody’s listening.
Do you think it’s any coincidence that Lib campaigning material contains no pics of Howard and hardly a mention of him?
Possum’s take is even more astonishing. The very biggest swings against Howard are in the old Green Leaf suburbs where Wets and a lot of the old patrician Liberals still reside. Many of them hate with a passion Howard’s exploitation of racism, his abuses of the public service, his cultivating of the fundamentalists, and his obsequiousness to Bush. There’s a feeling that Rudd is a safe alternative, something that hasn’t been on offer in the last 11 years. Nobody really knows how many seats it may yield, but it could turn this election into a rout.
I’m sticking to the most probable outcome at present – about 90 seats to Labor. But it would not surprise me if it goes to somewhere like Gusface and Snakey have been predicting – 115-120.
Gaynor 190
There is still time to disendorse Belinda Neal.
My kneecaps are fine thanks, why do you ask?
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Glen Says:
October 24th, 2007 at 11:10 pm
Yes Albanese tends to argue a good case when Rudd isnt behind him eating his own ear wax ]
.
.
Glen,
I made fun of Coonan so I think it’s fair enough for you to make fun of my point about Albanese but I also think you need to find a new joke. The ear wax thing is getting real old.
[Rudd has no substance whatsoever….]
You have no substance about the issue of substance.
RE AM’s list of monikers for the Old Bloke at post 263:
Jurassic John.
The Weasel of OZ
But especially: Rat-faced Calvinist.
Loved it.
Paul something that funny never gets old you cry baby lefties dont like it when your leader looks like a unhygienic nerd…at least Albanese has good hygiene something that cannot be said for Rudd…
You continually make fun of mad monk, captain smirk, rodent so it is only fair for me to make fun of ear wax eater…if i cannot say ear wax eater then you cannot say rodent or captain smirk…
Where was Conroy tonight was he doing the numbers to make sure Rudd would survive a challenge from Swan or Gillard…
The truth is an advantage to Labor, that’s why we ration it.
http://www.news.com.au/heraldsun/breakingnews/
GG you rationed it alright, which story did you mean?
Glen,
You won’t find any posts by me with the words Rodent, etc. I’ve said before that I think that it’s childish. But the ear wax thing is primary school stuff. I even heard Derryn Hinch cut off a caller on his radio show who tried to bring it up by saying that if you looked closely all Rudd really did was scratch his ear. If you want to keep acting like a little kid that’s your choice.
I heard that Coonan was the female mummy found with Tutankhamen and that she has been wondering the earth ever since.