Rise and fall

With today’s consumer price index figures said by analysts to make a Melbourne Cup interest rates hike extremely likely, Crikey offers another round of Roy Morgan data mining, this time ranking electorates in order of respondents’ various economic concerns. Morgan has also aggregated its September polling to provide state and country/city breakdowns. Also in the mail today is the latest Reuters poll trend, a weighted aggregate of Newspoll, ACNielsen and Roy Morgan. It shows essentially no change from the October 10 result, with Labor on 56.6 per cent of two party preferred (up 0.1 per cent) and 48.6 per cent of the primary vote (down 0.1 per cent), and the Coalition primary vote steady on 39.1 per cent.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

460 comments on “Rise and fall”

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  4. I’m a big fan of vernacular creativity, and the blogs are throwing up some pearlers.

    A non-exhaustive list of Costello pseudonyms;

    Tip (as in All Tip No Iceberg – thanks PK!)
    The Smirk, Smirky, The Smirker, The Smirky Smirker
    The Knee
    the Prime Minister in Waiting… and waiting
    Custardello
    la Cost Elle
    $Sweetie
    Bracket Creep

  5. Back to the hoary question of ‘economy/national security’ cf ‘social/health/education’. The striking thing about Newspoll numbers is how symmetric they are.

    Coalition voters split around 90 to not much in favour of their party on economy/national security, but only around high 60s to under 20 in favour of their party on social issues. Labor voters are exactly the inverse: they’re 10 to 1 pro their party on social issues, around 4 to one on economy.

    So there’s some kind of correlation there, but not necessarily any cause and effect. Indeed, the so-called ‘soft’ proportions seem to cancel themselves out.

    The curiosity then is with the thinking of the fifth or so of supporters of each party who aren’t completely partisan. Doubters on economic issues (Labor) or social issues (Liberal), but for whom their parties perceived failings on those issues aren’t enough to shift allegiance.

  7. Missing, presumed delusional:

    Cerdic Conan
    Steven Kaye
    Nostradamus

    Although these people have all but disappeared, brief sightings were reported after slightly-improved poll numbers for the Coalition, only to disappear again after Monday’s edition of Lateline.

  9. I luv Hawkies ( No spasms evident ) on agenda just now “Howard should annouce some road funding for Syria considering his use of the road to Damascus ie Blacks aged iraq etc etc “

  10. Saw on the Morgan site a State by State City Country breakdown of their stuff for August and Sept. Bad news for the Coalition in every state except WA. Its showing W.A. as having the reverse in primary vote of the rest of the country??

    Now some will put this down to the popularity of AWA’s, and high salaries, but its only the mining boom workers who are getting that. The rest of us are paying higher prices for everything, and SerfChoices has meant that our pay has been kept very modest.

    This is particularly true in the regional centers servicing the mining / resources sector. Someone on the mines or processing plants can afford the rents being charged, but the checkout person at the local supermarket and a lot of others who keep these places functioning localities are having real bother.

    Be interesting to see how this translates on polling day. W.A. doesn’t have enough seats to make a difference to the result if the polls in the other states are at all in the ballpark, and with Green preferences (they are doing well) it would be touch and go at least in the city seats.

  11. Poor Cerdic.

    You know, on the strength of that trend, I think something special is going to happen in a month’s time.

    The 1996/2007 comparison over at ozpolitics gives an indication of the the historical significance of these numbers.

  13. So pissed was a certain former leader one night recently at a nightclub in Bayswater Road Kings Cross that we took a series of photos of him wearing different hats, undies on his head, ciggies in his ears etc.
    He just slurped incoherently into his 17th (?) scotch.

  14. Hey, we’re forgetting this beauty for Costello from Annabel Crabbe, I think:

    The Sub Prime Minister

    Loved it.

    PS Maxine still a sure fire winner in Bennelong.

  16. Red Wombat’s ‘The Gimp’ was excellent (I think I’ve got this attribution right…?) It’s especially appropriate when referring to times when Mr. Costello and Mr. Howard are together.

  19. I have not disappeared by any means.

    Additionally, I still favour Howard to win. I will admit that the Coalition will lose a few seats, but much fewer than is required for a change in government. Swings at elections are never uniform and the Coalition will direct all its resources to the marginals it holds in the 2-5 percent bracket, meaning that Labor must pick up seats currently held by the Coalition at a margin higher than that – something that I don’t see them doing. It is simply too hard to expect Rudd to come back from so far behind in his first stint as opposition leader.

    On the all-important measure of who is deemed to be the better manager of the economy, Howard remains comfortably in front. As has been mentioned, no prospective PM has won an election from this far behind on this measure.

    There is no sentiment in the community that the PM should be thrown out like there was for Keating in 1996. It is not “time”; the nation is relaxed and comfortable; WorkChoices will only have an impact in safe Labor seats where there are lots of lower-class workers; and interest rates are still the key factor in the mortgage belt. Regardless of how high interest rates were when Howard was treasurer, the figure indelibly printed into voters’ minds is still the 17% under Hawke and Keating. A union-bowing Rudd government would almost certainly have higher interest rates than a Coalition government; under these conditions many families would default their homes.

    The ALP may well win the popular vote, but the swing required for a majority is just too high. Prediction: Coalition with a majority of 4-8 seats.

  21. Nostrodamus @ 19

    Depends where you go perhaps, but I am definitely getting the “It’s Time” feeling when I’m out in public – T-shirts, comments from swinging voter family members etc. I think it’s not a huge groundswell as yet but given the right circumstances I think it’s there to be capitalised on by Labor.

  23. Nostradamus, a quite sensible post in some ways.

    Do you really believe that the Coalition will hold marginals in the 2-5% bracket just because they focus on them? Do you not imagine the ALP will be focusing on these seats as well? Presuming that, if there’s a largish swing on election night is it not possible the swing could be enough to net a large proportion of these seats?

  24. Nostro,

    If it’s 54/46 on the night, no amount of Coalition pork in the marginals will save them – that would be a 7% TPP on a national basis.

  26. Nostrils

    Interest rates just went up, they are about to go up again. Howard’s credibility is zero – Costello’s less.

    Can you honestly tell me why anyone would vote coalition?

  28. As much as I would love Kevin to win, I’m inclined to agree with Nostradamus.

    “Swings at elections are never uniform and the Coalition will direct all its resources to the marginals it holds in the 2-5 percent bracket, meaning that Labor must pick up seats currently held by the Coalition at a margin higher than that – something that I don’t see them doing. It is simply too hard to expect Rudd to come back from so far behind in his first stint as opposition leader.”
    Especially when polling in the actual electorates – a la the polling recently published from seats in WA – does not show as high a vote for Labor as on a national basis.

    “The ALP may well win the popular vote, but the swing required for a majority is just too high.”
    It may be like ’98. The ALP will win the popular vote but not the seats.

    My concern is that Rudd is not spending enough time working the marginals (e.g. he hasn’t even travelled to WA yet), which is what Howard will obviously be doing (e.g. his excursion to Kingston the other day).
    Moreover, most of those “swinging voters” will be persuaded by arguments on economy, which is where the Liberals clearly hold ground.

    Someone please reassure me that all will be fine and Rudd will pick up his 16 seats, for I remain sceptical.

  29. Just wondering – Are there any polls expected out tomorrow?

    Or will the inflation figures (or the trapped Kalgoorlie gold miners) dominate the headlines?

  31. “It may be like ‘98. The ALP will win the popular vote but not the seats”

    There is no one nation this election, the only seats the Libs will win is where they win on primaries.

  32. In response to No. 27 – no. I’ve never even heard of backpages.

    Interest rates may well go up in early November but that’s likely to help the Coalition rather than Labor. It would remind voters how much it would go up if they opted for change.

    It is highly unlikely that Labor would win either of Bennelong or Wentworth even if there was a huge swing on nationally simply because of the fact that Howard is PM and Turnbull’s margin is artifically small because of a three-cornered contest last time. Therefore the real swing required for the ALP is even higher.

  34. The chances of another interest rate rise early next month are strong following todays inflation figures. Again poor judgement by Howard for not calling the election beforehand.

    I bet Howard now wishes he had retired last year. Let’s examine the consequences:
    – Howard retires as an unbeatable legend.
    – Costello given sufficient time to consolidate position as PM.
    – Beazley would have been leader of the opposition instead of Rudd.
    – Liberals favoured to win again.

    Consequences for Howard for not standing down:
    – Labor leading in the polls and short priced favourites with bookies.
    – Liberals facing greatest ever defeat.
    – Howard set to lose his own seat.
    – Costello never to be PM.

    In Summary:
    Howard was too greedy and Costello was to weak. Sweet!

  35. I cant see the Coalition losing the election unless Howard loses Bennelong and i cant see that happening…if Howard were to lose his seat the Government would fall but i dont see him or Turnbull losing their seats so i still think it is a tough ask for Labor to win Government…

  36. Because with a swing that every poll for the last year has shown, it doesn’t matter if the government directs every resource they can lay their hands on into the marginals. Whichever marginal Labor don’t win – and it won’t be many – they’ll take an equal amount of safe seats.

    It simply doesn’t matter what spin you want to put on the figures – every piece of evidence for months has said the government is completely stuffed. The rate rise is just going to be the final nail in the coffin.

  37. Nostro @ 32,

    I disagree with your assertion about interest rates helping the Coalition. When rates went up last time (I think in August), there was no movement towards the Coalition – in fact, in September (when people would have started feeling the effects of the rate rise), there was a definite move towards Labor.

    However, I do agree with you on Labor not winning Bennelong or Wentworth. I’ve always said that it’s unlikely that they’ll win either (particularly now in Wentworth, given the problems that Newhouse has been having), but I think they’re setting Bennelong up for the by-election that occurs after Howard resigns (whenever that may be).

  38. [I cant see the Coalition losing the election unless Howard loses Bennelong and i cant see that happening…if Howard were to lose his seat the Government would fall but i dont see him or Turnbull losing their seats so i still think it is a tough ask for Labor to win Government…]

    This means you do not understand the difference between causation and probability.

    It is PROBABLE that if John Howard loses Bennelong, the government will lose the election. However, John Howard losing Bennelong will not CAUSE the government to lose the election.

  39. Someone please reassure me that all will be fine and Rudd will pick up his 16 seats, for I remain sceptical.

    If you want to remain sceptical, that’s your choice. All information out there suggests a comfortable ALP win at this stage. Now if this changes, then I’ll worry about it, but I’m not going to start stressing prematurely just for the sake of it.

  40. Actually you are wrong ShowsOn because if Bennelong and Wentworth were to fall they are about 14 and 6 on the list of marignals and thus the swings would be enough for Rudd to win if the ALP captured these 2 seats if they cant win these 2 then i doubt they’ll win Government…as the swings clearly were not enough for Rudd…

  41. Glen,

    Labor can very easily win if they don’t win Bennelong. Bennelong is not a normal 5% marginal seat – the sitting PM factor is huge, as is the fact that Howard has represented the seat for 33 years. It behaves more like an 8% semi-marginal.

    More importantly, there are plenty of juicy seats around that Labor could win, regardless of the result in Bennelong. I think we’ve all been underestimating Labor’s position in Victoria for too long – I’m now thinking that Labour could pick up at least 2 seats there and possibly up to 5. We’ve also got to realise that the interest rate rises bring seats like Robertson, Greenway and (possibly) Macarthur into play in NSW. The fact that Rudd was campaigning yesterday in Macarthur is indicative of this…

  42. The day the Coalition loses Macarthur the Revolution will be here Rudd has shown as much hubris and arrogance as it would be for Howard to campaign in the seat of Wills or Gellibrand…

  46. Glen,

    I agree that Macarthur is an unlikely Labor gain this time around (the Pat Farmer factor is probably too big to overcome). But it’s in play, like Greenway now (lots of mortgagees in and around there) and it has similar demographics to Lindsay.

    But the point of the original post was not to argue about Macarthur, but to say Labor can easily win without either Bennelong or Wentworth. I’ve compiled my list of the 16 seats that could go:

    Bonner
    Moreton
    Blair
    Herbert
    Lindsay
    Eden-Monaro
    Parramatta
    Kingston
    Makin
    Wakefield
    Solomon
    Bass
    Braddon
    Hasluck
    La Trobe
    Dobell

  47. Says someone who had 17% interest rates and 13% unemployment and high inflation and billions of dollars of Commonwealth debt…hmm why does Bob have any credibility to criticise the Howard Government???

  48. Glen, what is your prediction for the final result? How many seats will the Coalition win?

    You are certainly more confident now the campaign has begun. I recall you being far less optimistic a few weeks ago.

    What do you think of the fact that the Liberal Party’s internal polling has Maxine McKew in front fractionally in Bennelong?

  49. The following ex-posters

    Cerdic Conan
    Steven Kaye
    Nostradamus

    are obviously Liberal staffers who are now too busy updating their CVs to be posting here.

  50. Thos Morgan results are HORRENDOUS for Howard in Queensland. Absolutely catastrophic. There’s no other way to put it. Even a 2PP for Labor of 51 will deliver them a swag of QLD seats, but the PRIMARY vote is 50.5 in the country and _57_ in the city!! I’m shocked.

    If Morgan is right, Nov 24 will be a legendary political defeat that will resonate for decades.

    WA is certainly an anomaly, though. Maybe they should secede. Then they can give Ben Cousins a knighthood and no-one will care.

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