Rise and fall

With today’s consumer price index figures said by analysts to make a Melbourne Cup interest rates hike extremely likely, Crikey offers another round of Roy Morgan data mining, this time ranking electorates in order of respondents’ various economic concerns. Morgan has also aggregated its September polling to provide state and country/city breakdowns. Also in the mail today is the latest Reuters poll trend, a weighted aggregate of Newspoll, ACNielsen and Roy Morgan. It shows essentially no change from the October 10 result, with Labor on 56.6 per cent of two party preferred (up 0.1 per cent) and 48.6 per cent of the primary vote (down 0.1 per cent), and the Coalition primary vote steady on 39.1 per cent.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

460 comments on “Rise and fall”

Comments Page 8 of 10
1 … 7 8 9 10

  1. Question for Don Wigan,

    Are you the same Don Wiggan(as it appears in the credits) who was one of the drivers for Santo Cilauro’s 1996 Documentry on The Campaign ?

  3. Glen: your beloved Prime Minister still thinks we’re living in 1900.
    Unfortunately for Howard lovers, the rest of the Australian populace have switched off and couldn’t give a ____ what the Rodent says.

    I’ll make another confident prediction: even if it’s a landslide win to Rudd, one seat Labor won’t pick up is Robertson. Belinda Neale is a disaster. Her husband ought to stop trying to get his wife back into parliament. I give Nicole Cornes more chance of winning Boothby.

  5. Paul he fut his finger in his ear and then put that same finger in his mouth…it speaks for itself…so long as Howard is referred as Rodent, Jurassic John, The Weasel of OZ, i will call Rudd ear wax eater….

    How is calling Howard those things not childish too then Paul so then you’ve called your comrades all little kids you wont be popular….

  8. It’s not looking good for right-wing parties overseas atm.

    [Poland’s conservative Prime Minister Jaroslaw Kaczynski says he will resign on November 5 after losing a parliamentary election, allowing centre-right opposition leader Donald Tusk to succeed him.

    Mr Tusk began talks on forming a coalition with a centrist party after the election victory on Sunday of his Civic Platform, which was welcomed by markets after two years of turbulent rule by Mr Kaczynski and his twin brother.

    The prime minister and President Lech Kaczynski, still in office until at least 2010, have ruled during a boom in central Europe’s biggest economy but were caught up in almost constant political infighting and quarrels with EU partners.

    Mr Kaczynski said he would resign on November 5, when the new parliament sits for the first time.]

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/10/24/2069582.htm?section=justin

  9. When the dust settles on Sunday 25th, Dork Choices will be the clincher, combined with yet another interest rate rise in early November. The Libs have nothing to say on Health and Education and won’t be believed even if they roll out ‘big gun’ policies in these areas. Fattening the Pig on market day, as Rodentus so eloquently put it!
    It seems that it’s now ‘social policy’ stupid, not the economy. And why not? Kevvie has done everything possible to neutralise this issue and sure looks like he is succeeding. Just a bit ‘presidential’, like a Roman Consul – not quite Caesar!
    If Swan doesn’t bungle the debate against Costello, Labor is home, as Captain Smirk is about as appealing as necrophilia.
    Whilst the Libs can try to concentrate on holding seats in the 2-5% range, the Unions via Your Rights at Work teams, have been targetting the 21 most marginal seats across the nation for at least the last 12 months. I’m sure they’ve kept Dork Choices percolating – the Libs ‘fairness test’ was just too little and too late, as it still left 300,000 workers languishing on ‘unfair’ AWA’s, by definition. And if they don’t like it, they just have to find another job? Ain’t that ‘fair’?
    If these 300,000 are ‘normally distributed’ throughout the marginals, Labor will win, albeit narrowly, relying on two independents for absolute ‘majority’. 75 ALP, 73 Coalition, two Independents ( Katter and Windsor). Margin so narrow because swing won’t be uniform 4.8%.

    NSW 4 seats ( Macquarie, Lindsay, Eden-Monaro, maybe Page or Wentworth or Bennelong)
    Vic – 3 seats from around 5-6% swing,
    3 most marginal in Qld,
    3 SA seats, one of Bass or Braddon and 1 in WA or NT. ( Total 15).
    Imagine Bob Katter holding balance of power in House of Reps? The Shooters could yet have their revenge on Rodentus for national gun law changes, via Katter making Rudd PM. Could be quite a volatile time in House of Reps if this happens. May have to appoint Katter or Windsor as Speaker, to ‘eliminate’ one possible vote on floor of the House. Wouldn’t want to vote oneself out of Speaker’s job, surely? Why wouldn’t Kevvie do what Iemma did in NSW?

    Why so close? Just like 1961, the ‘credit squeeze’ election. Rate rise in November could push the margin out to 5 or more, but not much more, with Rodentus only just moving into ‘negative’ popularity ( i.e. Approve v. Disapprove). Also tight because young may not vote, due to complete disengagement with politics, thus dampening the effect of 70/30 junior vote split to Labor and due to early ‘roll closure’, catching out the nearly 18 year olds on threshhold of end-of-high school exams.

    Should be just too many balls in the air this time for Rodentus, Wizard of Oz to juggle. His ‘lame duck’ status will soon filter through to the mug punters too. If they don’t like Costello there’s just no one else to vote for but Kevvie, unless they are gripped by Rodent’s ‘nostalgia’ trip once more, because it is all just too hard and people really want to go Back to the Future. And weren’t we happier with our FJ Holdens?
    There are clearly a number of seats around 5-7% margins which are ‘in play’ to be lost by the Libs, especially in Victoria. And J. Howard will have to spend much more time in his own seat, lest Maxine steal it from him.
    If Malcolm gets a bit complacent or arrogant in Wentworth, now Newhouse’s ex is standing, that could be a surprise win for Labor.
    The HIgh and Mighty Malcolm will be expected to weigh in not just with money, but with time outside his own seat, so he’ll be torn between personal survival and the good of the party. What will he choose? He might well say ‘for the good of the Party, I must survive’!
    The Govt clearly didn’t believe the ACTU ads would have such an impact. Neither did Rodentus believe Labor would change leaders, but they did.
    Prediction: Labor by two, with FF prefs in some places and Greens in others. I think this prediction accords with the seat-by-seat betting – the bookies don’t usually get ‘claimed’ – and the Party ‘insiders’ can’t be stopped from having a ‘flutter’. Isn’t democracy wonderful?

  10. Frank…you seem to forget that the Left wing parties got less than 15% of the vote how good does that look for the Left???

    We had a right wing government replaced by a centre-right government…how is that bad????

    The Liberal Party is more like the Civic Platform who are a pro-business centre-right party so id have to say your post shows why Howard has a chance of winning…

  11. Possum @ 356, well there you go! I’m glad the police are stamping that sort of thing out … but it does provide some insight into WA voting intentions

  12. [We had a right wing government replaced by a centre-right government…how is that bad????]

    You should catch a flight there on November 25th.

  14. Glen, you’ve reached desperation stakes when the best your lot can do is defame Kevin Rudd as an “ear wax eater”, in comparison to a Prime Minister who doesn’t know what century we’re in currently.

  15. [ It’s not looking good for right-wing parties overseas atm. ]

    Actually moderate right wingers are still looking OK, e.g. Germany and France. But it’s the extremists like those in Poland who are slowly being swept from the earth.

  17. Let It End Says:
    October 24th, 2007 at 10:25 pm
    My my, seems freedom of information is only available as long as you don’t use it against the Govt;

    For goodness sakes we gotta get this mob well and truly out of office.

  18. [ 355
    Glen Says:
    October 24th, 2007 at 11:36 pm

    Paul he fut his finger in his ear ]
    .
    .
    Glen,

    Tell me do you think Howard has ever picked his nose or wiped his own bottom? Or do his servants do it for him?

  20. HH i am not defaming Kevin Rudd because he does eat his own ear wax and the youtube video proves this so i hardly think it is a case of defamation…calling Howard a rodent or Jurassic John, The Weasel of OZ is defamatory because Howard is not a weasel or a rodent…

    ShowsOn im more likely to get interested in international politics if my side of politics here is wiped out i cant see myself getting excited about us holding the mayoral position of Brisbane….shudders…

  22. What’s so bad about ear wax Glen? Never partaken myself… saving up some for my next cotten bud… if you could give me a clue as to what you’re so disgusted about – I’d appreciate it!

  24. Perhaps you should ask Rudd he knows what it tastes like…Rudd will break out the 1998 vintage if he wins the election he’ll share it round the table…

    Still no election ads on air at the moment i guess they are waiting for he last 2 weeks…

  25. [ShowsOn im more likely to get interested in international politics if my side of politics here is wiped out i cant see myself getting excited about us holding the mayoral position of Brisbane….shudders…]

    Who’s your pick for the Republican primary?

  28. Glen,
    Your continual tired sneering at Rudd on Waxgate shows that you are both un-Australian and in dire need of Howard’s history lessons.

    In World War I, Australian troops in the second battle of Ypres lived off earwax for three weeks: firstly their own, and then their comrades’. You probably don’t know this, but there were even rumours that they had consumed German earwax – this was of course denied by Monash, but there is some evidence in the Australian Archives that wax was taken from wounded Germans (although never dead Germans, as the Central Powers claimed).

    You’ve heard of Phar Lap? That’s no great claim to scholarship – but have you ever heard of Ear Wax, the other plucky chestnut gelding, who while never winning the Melbourne Cup, came second in eight consecutive years throughout the 1920s until he was eaten during the Great Depression.

    Historians (time to step in ESJ) believe that it was Ear Wax (the horse), and his renowned fight against adversity, who provided inspiration for “Mr Waxy”, the Curtin Government’s Ministry of Information’s cartoon character who exhorted Australians to live within their means during the Second World War, by growing their own vegies, saving bits of string, and yes, eating their own ear wax.

    “Lend Me Your Ears” (foreword, Eddie Ward) was a best-selling cookbook of that time – even years later, my nan from Kempsey would never send us off without first preparing us “Conny Onnys”, a nutritious sandwich of condensed milk, ear wax, and whatever else was found around the house. You might call this socialist austerity – I call it the Aussie Battling.

    Of course, with the lifting of rationing under Menzies, ear wax was derided by the conservative side of politics – although you’ll find that nose picking was still quite acceptable. Some expected a comeback under Billy McMahon, but his government was too short-lived for any momentum.

    Had Howard and Co not made it so tough for Australian Working Families, perhaps some of us wouldn’t be obliged to go mining our own potatoes, or fiddling with gilberts. Trust me, though, under a Rudd Labor Government, there will be ear-wax for all who want it – and anti-vilification legislation introduced to stop the likes of you smearing fine patriots.

  29. Earwax is good, soon as I heard Costello say today that “underlying inflation is expected as demand pressures ease” I shoved in as much as I could to save my sanity.

  30. [Garrett Blocked on $12,000 Freedom Of Information Request}

    Odd that the Barrier Reef Authority won’t cough-up copies of scientific research that our taxes have funded. Why? What have they got to hide?

    And how about 12 K for provision of data on the reef ecology? I note the following costing breakdown: “….costs included charges for 107.6 hours of search and retrieval time, 539 hours of decision-making time and photocopying of more than 3250 pages at 10 cents per page…”

    539 Hours of decsion making time?

    Holy Somnolent Bureaucrats Batman, that’s more than 14 week’s work for Sir Humphrey. Fourteen weeks to vet and decide whether to release 3250 pages at 45 pages per-day.

    Did they have to be translated from Chinese first or something? What kind of numb-nuts tanks at reading 45 pages per-day?

  31. So, we’ve got 12 days til the announcement (or the lack of one) from the RBA which means that’s the hot topic. Except for cup day of course. Which is 12 days the Libs won’t be ‘cutting through’ much. Then after that there’ll be a bit over a fortnight left for them to grovel to the folks (if the rates go up) or try to explain why they won’t go up in December. In other words, no momentum. Can’t quite see how the military tech schools thing (or its ilk) or Helen C’s various plans, or the smirk’s fabulous communication skills, or anything else, really, is going to make that particular issue go away. How do you convince the people that Howard’s not just a very fortunate megalomaniac who’s forgotten which century it is? If you can’t do that, how can the Libs win? They can’t.

  35. My point is – that anyone expressing such disgust over Mr. Rudd (the gourmand) has tasted ear wax – either their own or someone else’s… it is a subjective experience… there can’t be a sympathetic reaction to such a thing… so Glen, which is it – have _you_ tasted either your own earwax or someone elses? Answer! No running away!

  36. Glen,

    Ear wax is the secret ingredient to the mesmersing power and efficacy of ALP hubricating oil.

    It is an anabolic feng shui substitute.

    Kevin Rudd is going to be the next PM because he is impervious to glib Glen’s gloating.

  38. lets hear the truth glen, you are not really a liberal, but rather a crypto fascist clown, fixated upon John Howard as some reincarnated Fuhrer.

  40. Looks like the media spin doctors are about to line up and eat each other. This could break out into inter-media warfare.

    Print warriors turning on themselves
    {AN entertaining, if undignified, contest is under way behind the campaign as commentators turn on each other when not bashing politicians.

    The Herald Sun’s Andrew Bolt lashed out at fellow Coalition barracker Gerard Henderson on the ABC’s Lateline on Monday. “Gerard, we know your game, you’ll sit on the fence, not say anything,” said Bolt, as he lampooned Henderson’s refusal to predict the election result.

    Bolt, who predicts a Labor win by 10 seats, last month declared it was time for Howard to make way for Peter Costello.

    Janet Albrechtsen, The Australian’s columnist also known for her Coalition sympathies, took a similar stand. The Age’s Michelle Grattan said Howard should go.

    That left Henderson of The Sydney Morning Herald standing alongside The Daily Telegraph’s Piers Akerman as solidly behind Howard. }

    http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22638826-5013871,00.html

  43. Okay, Glen – you can’t answer… No worries! Look if you could just stand up and get Edward (from the next cubicle) for me – that would be excellent – he’ll be able to give me an answer as to how a person can feel such existential disgust about earwax without ever having experienced its taste! C’mon Glen! Get Edward – there’s a good boy!

  44. 389
    Adam Says:
    October 24th, 2007 at 11:57 pm
    Soon it will be time to poison Blondi

    Or the Member for Warringah, to use his correct title.

  47. Rudy Giuliani, a ‘moderate Republican’????? WTF??

    Rudy has one plan, and one plan only: to get himself into a flight suit and over Iran as soon as he can.

    That’s it! This clown is determined to bankrupt the USA with more of the same insanity that the ever so popular current incumbent has inflicted upon the world.

    “moderate”??? Oh, give me a break!

  49. Actually Nath i was not the first to talk about General Wenck i merely responded to the left wing charge for fun…so i did not start such actions they were begun by the Left…

Comments are closed.

Comments Page 8 of 10
1 … 7 8 9 10