Rise and fall

With today’s consumer price index figures said by analysts to make a Melbourne Cup interest rates hike extremely likely, Crikey offers another round of Roy Morgan data mining, this time ranking electorates in order of respondents’ various economic concerns. Morgan has also aggregated its September polling to provide state and country/city breakdowns. Also in the mail today is the latest Reuters poll trend, a weighted aggregate of Newspoll, ACNielsen and Roy Morgan. It shows essentially no change from the October 10 result, with Labor on 56.6 per cent of two party preferred (up 0.1 per cent) and 48.6 per cent of the primary vote (down 0.1 per cent), and the Coalition primary vote steady on 39.1 per cent.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

460 comments on “Rise and fall”

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  1. [Looks like the media spin doctors are about to line up and eat each other. This could break out into inter-media warfare.]

    Um, why doesn’t that article identify Shanahan as a Government supporter!?

  2. Evan,

    it really is a joke. Not sure how it took them 539 hours to decide it was ‘political’ and couldn’t be released.

    Perhaps half of those 539 hours were in trying to work out how many hours it took to make the decision.

    Surely they could have worked out it was going be political in 0.539 hours.

    Imagine how big the surplus could really be if this sort of crap wasn’t going on on a daily basis.

  3. The GG should sack Rudd if he tries to bring forward Royal Commissions for political opportunism against the legacy of Howard if Krudd wins…

  4. Not much good an Argentine passport these days… but the Liberals have always been about a century behind! Glen, just SMS Edward and tell him ‘Argntna nw dmocrcy – Go Burma MBaC! Quik!’

  5. Possum Comitatus could you explain to a poor ignorant engineer why the reserve bank increases interest rates when inflation gets out of hand.

    1) The cost of money increase, this adds to inflation.
    2) Our exchange rate goes up, this adds to inflation.

    To my mind they are trying to control demand, and the cost of money and the effect it has on demand is what us poor engineers refer to as a secondary effect. Secondary effects are something engineers try and ignore with a nice linear model.

  6. The forthcoming Royal Commission on the AWB affair should be a corker. It will probably force Downer, Vaile and Truss out of politics if they haven’t gone already.

  7. Surely, Howard knew that there was a strong likelihood of interest rates going up in early November. Speculation has been going on for a long time now. So, delaying the election until later in November was always going to be risky, but what could have possibly outweighed this risk in Howard’s mind when he chose to delay the election?

  8. I think we should convert all tertiary education institutions into defence technical colleges. That will make Australia really strong. You can even have a gun.
    Uncle John wants you, and you, and you.

  9. [The GG should sack Rudd if he tries to bring forward Royal Commissions for political opportunism against the legacy of Howard if Krudd wins…]

    Democratically elected governments can form as many royal comissions as they like.

    Why have you suddenly developed issues with democracy?

  10. I think we should have a royal commission every time a government changes. good for the system. Look what happened during the roman republic, every time a poltician left office they were prosecuted for any corruption that happened under their watch.

  11. Yeah, can we “yada yada” through a week or two, Seinfeld-style?

    Enjoyed the chaser encoreing Howard’s senior moment at the debate – otherwise a tidge bored at this point.

    Keep the polls rollin!

  12. Mr Howard and Treasurer Peter Costello attempted to play down the CPI figures, pointing instead to the headline inflation figure of 1.9 per cent


    LOL, that may have worked for the dill if he hadn’t forgotten directing everyone to use underlying rate of inflation and not the headline rate in all of his last 4 qrt press conferences on CPI.

    As for his statement; “underlying inflation is expected as demand pressures ease”, I am totally speechless.

    At least the media seem to have finally woken up to him now. Honestly, how anyone can attribute any credibility to Costello is beyond me.

  13. It is really like when a tidal wave hits.

    One minute you are swimming gaily in the sea, water up over your head.
    Next the sea rushes out leaving you naked and arguing with a whole bay full of floundering fish.

    Then the Tsunami flows in and you are completely and utterly drowned.

    Vale John Howard.

  14. I suspect you’re right, 426, 427. All H*b*i* aside (or *u*r*s for those who punctuated differently), I think this will be seen as the week when the ground opened up beneath Howard. (I can say this without invoking the wrath of the gods, btw – I’m not in the Labor Party). Watch the collapse accelerate from hereon in.

  15. When Costello was asked today if the coalition could still win all he could manage was there is still 4 weeks to go and something could happen.

    Not much encouragement for the faithful there.

  16. I think Glen’s various royal commissions into government corruption would be great, they would remind governments that even if they think they have absolute unfettered power the tiny little thing called the law will catch up with them….

  17. 1998 – ALP primary vote 40.1%. One Nation makes the election irrelevant, the Libs/Nats got 39.7%.

    What the poor old Libs don’t realise is that a lot of people never liked Howard, but they were not quite in the majority. Now a lot of people who voted for him in marginals are mightly ticked off, and some of the people who didn’t like his policies on social issues but swallowed their economic medicine don’t think Rudd’s a danger.

    If both of those hold, Nostro and friends will look a bit like the French aristocracy shortly before the storming of the Bastille.

    Despite that, only a major miracle will get Zochling up in Warringah!

  18. Rudd’s concession speech…

    When it comes to losing the election the buck stops with me.

    Can i just say that we fought hard for working families but the bottom line is this we lost…but you know something we tried to bring back fairness…

    My challenge to the Prime Minister is this…when it comes to running the country we need new leadership and we need fresh ideas and i hope the Prime Minister can achieve this though i doubt this…

    As someone who grew up in the country i know that in due season we need an education revolution and we will strive for this goal even in opposition…

    Did we want to win the election? Yes….Why? Because we wanted to keep fairness from being thrown out the back door…we needed fresh ideas on broad band and on the question on why we needed to do this is so that our children can have the best education in the world…

    I say id come down like a tonne of bricks on any hubris and triumphalism but it wasnt enough and i always said it would go down to the wire but it appears as if we’ve gone a bridge too far and the fork in the road does not involve a new Labor government so i will still be an unemployed diplomat and remain an economic conservative…so long as i am leader of the ALP…

    Can i just say how sorry i am to the faithful that we didnt pull it off the buck stops with me and we didnt counter the negative scare campaign of the Howard Government adequately and so i will set up a committee to analyse our defeat immediately…

  19. I hope Labor proposes an economic summit for the first 100 days of government. Invite business, unions, economists etc to discuss ways to curb inflation.

    Sure we have a much more open economy than when Hawke did this in 1983, but the current government has done bugger all, and Rudd needs to show how seriously he will take the problem.

  20. Pressed on whether many Australians were now finding the dream of home ownership more elusive, Mr Howard pledged to unveil a housing affordability policy during the campaign.

    LOL, that’s it, the ole fella has totally lost it now.

    He’s been banging on “there is no crisis” for the last 6 months and now trudging along the road to Damascus he’s fallen down a pot hole and found a policy in it. Good Lord, what next!

  21. Glen @ # 339 said:

    “Rudd has no substance whatsoever….
    What did Rudd do today??
    He went to a school and said nothing…nothing!!!!!
    Rudd is PR staged he wont do anything as Prime Minister unless the polls tell him what is popular…god help us all…especially considering after 1 term Gillard will want to be PM…
    What did Howard do today?
    Had a policy on defence technical colleges…some substance from John.”

    The difference though is that Rudd was much more effective than Howard. Announcing a lot of policies is only effective if people are listing, But Howard has the problem that no one is listing and as soon as he opens his mouth they turn off. This was so clearly demonstrated during the debate and so clearly shown by the worm.

    Glen, I am afraid that Howard is only firing blanks.

  22. The worm is a bull butter Who the uncommitted audience were Labor staffers any noob could see that the worm started at the highest level before Rudd started talking and whenever Howard said anything the worm went down…Ray Martin should be ashamed of himself and 9 show sack him for political bias…

  23. LOL, even Shanahan has now embarked on a journey of that well known Syrian highway it seems, Is there anyone other than Piers left 🙂

    It will be a devastating blow to the Coalition. There is a slim argument run by some that another rate rise, uncertainty about the US economy and panics on the share market will make people nervous and push voters back to the “steady hands” of Howard and Peter Costello.

    But that argument’s so thin it couldn’t get a gig on a modern catwalk.

    A rate rise will be bad for the Coalition’s reputation on economic management and reinforce sullen resentment at Howard’s failed 2004 promise on keeping interest rates low.


  24. The government’s claims of economic superiority has always been a sham. They just took all the brain dead easy decisions, instead of doing the real hard things to keep the economy growning.

    I’m glad their reputation is going to fall in a heap by election day.

  25. Not only that ShowsOn, but as the MSM stirs over inflation it will totally undermine the single strategy of Howard’s entire campaign, pork, and leave him stripped naked. A very deserving fate I may add.

  26. Glen @ # 445 said:

    “The worm is a bull butter Who the uncommitted audience were Labor staffers any noob could see that the worm started at the highest level before Rudd started talking and whenever Howard said anything the worm went down…Ray Martin should be ashamed of himself and 9 show sack him for political bias…”

    You may be correct Glen but I doubt it. Maybe one reason that they can’t get a panel of undecided voters is that they have all decided to vote Labor.

    However, Glen you are ignoring the elephant in the corner. The worm demonstrated that not only are people not listing to Howard they don’t want to listen to him. They are ignoring him at every opportunity and they are extremely happy to ignore him as well.

    This is what happens when you are tardy with the truth and use “weasel words” at every opportunity

  27. To Nostradamus and your prediction on Bennelong. I wonder what voters in this seat will be thinking in 4 weeks time if the polls maintain their current trend.

    Me, I would not want to vote in again so soon after the Federal poll. It may just convince me that a vote for Maxine, who let’s face it, a majority of voters in the country would be happy to have as their member, in the first place.

    When making predictions the original Nostradamus has to be interpreted very broadly to fit the true facts, I think you have chosen the moniker well.

    I predict Howard will not hold his seat. Remember historically Colins have always been right.

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