The Coalition has today adopted a shock-and-awe tactic to kick-start its election campaign: promised income tax cuts to cost $34 billion over three years, accompanied by aspirational talk of an Australia in which 98 per cent pay a marginal tax rate of 35 per cent or less. I won’t presume to discuss the promise’s target market at this point, but it should be noted that tax cuts at the past two budgets produced largely disappointing returns in the opinion polls (although the more recent round can be credited with a slight narrowing in Labor’s lead in August and September). Nonetheless, the announcement will fill the news bulletins with images of Peter Costello in his element, whereas Kevin Rudd will be forced to discuss those tax scales he couldn’t name a few weeks ago.
Centre-left economist John Quiggin makes the following observation on the troubled history of election tax cut promises:
I can recall (perhaps with error) at least two instances of such cuts being promised and then taken back. One was Paul Keating’s L-A-W tax cuts in 1993, which (as implied) were actually legislated in an attempt to increase their credibility. The other was the “Fistful of Dollars” tax cut of 1977 (so named for the ads which showed precisely that) promised by the Fraser-Lynch team going into the election and then (if my fading memory serves) taken back by Lynch’s newly-appointed replacement. Now what was his name again?
Sorry, try this link instead:
http://ninemsn.video.msn.com/v/en-au/v.htm?g=730b93b4-4f8c-4fc4-abab-15f2a2eb6c27&f=&fg=copy
S i am with you totally who cares? it is one bunch of people trying to ensure the greed vote followed by another.. one day S this country will need every cent it gets when our resources run out…
Thanks folks (even including you Greeny 🙂 )
Ouch
That’ll go down well with the tabloids tomorrow.
Howard better be careful that people don’t start referring to him as a doddering old coot.He cant afford gaffes like that.
It was priceless. Someone put it up on youtube so I can watch it over and over.
Grimshaw was just giving him a “pop quiz” with the two questions being what is the average weekly wage, and what is the current interest rate. I can’t believe Howard got it wrong. Too good to be true really.
After Tracey said “it’s actually 6.5%” Howard grunted and looked rather annoyed. The pop quiz was meant to be the end of the interview, so that was that…. Howard f*#ked up and grunted loudly in annoyance. It’s already hitting the online news, with any luck will be on telly tonight and tomorrow too.
Enough with the politics. We want the important questions answered.
Edward,
What do you do for a living?
The level politics has got to.. concentrating on the gaffes of people instead of the policies…
D’oh… too slow.
Sid Marris has picked up Howard’s interest rates gaffe:
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22589987-11949,00.html
I must agree with Paul K. I thought Rudd could have done better on the 7.30 Report. Whenever Kerry tried to pin him on a topic (eg can Labor lower unemployment?), Rudd just attacked Howard’s record. That’s pretty easy to do, but I really wanted to see whether Rudd could answer questions on his own behalf, rather than deflecting them. He also crapped on with his cliches of “fresh ideas” etc a bit much.
I do agree that it was sensible for Rudd not to rise to the bait about when he would release his tax policy, or whether he would match Howard’s.
Howard was quite feisty, though extremely unconvincing in refuting Kerry’s suggestion that the mining boom was delivering all the prosperity.
And one other thing I noticed on the news…Costello is SO MUCH TALLER than Howard. I’ve seen both of them in the flesh many times over the years, but you hardly ever see them standing together (for obvious reasons – they can’t stand the sight of one another). But today’s news conference on the tax announcement was quite striking visually. Dunno what it means to voters…might mean nothing, or they might find Costello a bit impressive than previously.
Yep as usual the big questions on current affair..
Yes, I noticed that too. Howard is looking more and more like a garden gnome every day. Perhaps he is shrinking. One day he may return to Kirribilli to live in the garden.
I suspect the tax-cuts are part and parcel with Howard’s reconciliation speech – they’re aimed squarely at winning back small-l liberals (or doctor’s wives if you must) such as myself. As many posters say, they will primarily benefit the leafy suburbs dwellers who earn relatively high wages, so it seems safe to assume they are the target audience. Indeed, I was talking about this with a friend a few months back when Possum analysed the Crosby-Textor report. Tax cuts are one of the few areas left for the Coalition to talk about, and Howard must be hoping that they will woo back small-l liberals who are swaying to Labor as a result of their dislike of Howard’s social policies. Of course, whether it will work is another matter (it won’t for me). The Liberals should have a) left the announcement until later in the campaign, and b) been bolder, and engaged in genuine and dramatic taxation reform.
Take a big chill pill everyone! remember “TEH BOUNCE” tax cuts back at budgie time?
No? Me neither- someone reminded me today. Guess I wasnt paying attention in masterclass, like 56 %2PP of the punteriat.
fact is, it aint a circuit breaker.
As for boring predictable cries of “welease the detail, Wudd”, didn’t Howard just release his tax policy, like, as late as today?
And second, after pissfarting around for months on the election,why should anyone supposed to take any forthcoming urgings for timely clarification seriously?
Nah. If I were Rudd, this is precisely where Id make good on the promise to spend less than the drunken sailor – and suggest instead that the $34B will go into infrastructure.
After all, what $15pw compared to saving 10k a year per kid, for the mortgage, becasue we’ve got decent public secondary schools?
So, why wasn’t the wouldbemaybe leader on 7.30 Report, telling the electorate that this flagship electoral policy was only the start of his magnificent and beneficient reign? Didn’t even get a supporting role.
The problem for the Libs in this Bretheren problem is how it plays with the wider Christian audience. The penticostals are seriously against this form of cult likened as it is to the Jehova witneses and mormons. If they are linked during this then their vote here would evaperate strongly when the voters link it to faith (as they do).
The rest of the christian faith will have their personal views move towards Labor in the same vein.
Still waiting for the answer “renaissance man” –
Not what you think you are…but what you really do!
….me think you share a weird ‘psycho-Howard’ mannerism.
And yes, real bad slip-up from Rodent. Bahah! Call day two for Rudd.
Only complete nerds know the tax-scales. But anyone with a mortgage knows the official interest rates.
Also have to add my personal view that if you don’t vote you should stay away from the process alltogether.
Yeah CW @ 163, it does make a mockery of this smooth and orderely “succession” plan. I thought it would have made more sense to have PC doing the tax thing.
This has more potency than the tax announcement;
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22587483-11949,00.html
Thanks for the link Shows On.
That interview was 6 degrees of awful for Howard.He looked like a cranky old man that hadn’t had his nap.
[Also have to add my personal view that if you don’t vote you should stay away from the process alltogether.]
Hear, hear!
whilst not attributing statistical substance to it, an amusing trip around the australian’s coredata voting intention poll has nearly all of brisbane outer metro as voting green. bennelong is 65% labour and even the north coast (nsw) has gone red. oh if all this was true….
p.s. great website guys
#164 Crikey Whitey:
[ So, why wasn’t the wouldbemaybe leader on 7.30 Report, telling the electorate that this flagship electoral policy was only the start of his magnificent and beneficient reign? Didn’t even get a supporting role. ]
I wouldn’t be surprised if we see the Vice-Captain on Lateline. Given that the tax announcement was the only major campaign story of the day, it might get a reprise. Hopefully Costello and Swan will come out for Round 2.
No, bugger it. I’m a convert. A whole $2.45 in five years’ time will do me. This has changed my vote and my life. I am now rusted-on Liberal and you commie pinkoes donkeys voters better take heed.
Thanks for joining Derek. remember the daily telie blog site is still open for business.
Ptobias 173, agree. But its a bit late in the day for many, so it does kind of relegate it.
Adam has previously identified me as a Young Liberal student from the North Shore of Sydney – AG01, Paul K.
“Finance Minister Nick Minchin told the right-wing reform group the HR Nicholls Society last year that there was always more to do in industrial relations in (a) speech urging deregulation.”
Yeah like telling these dingbats about how much power they have under the Work Choices legislation. These capitains of industry has no idea how much power they were given until it was explained to them later. In fact they were still crying out for more.
Howard’s interest rate stuff up won’t go too badly for him because all the papers tomorrow will carry the tax cuts in big headlines. I think it may come back to haunt him a little with the “out of touch” theme etc.
But yes I agree with Marky, the focus should be on policy debate, not little slip-ups. Then again I’m sure PJK didn’t forget tax/interest rates too often.
Great line from Murph at LP. hehehe:
“But when asked at the end of a Nine Network interview on Monday night if he could nominate the reserve bank’s official rate, Mr Howard answered: “It’s 6.25 per centâ€.
In a separate interview on Nine aired shortly after, Opposition Leader Kevin Rudd correctly quoted the figure of 6.5 per cent.â€
Well, he always said that interest rates would be lower under the Liberals.
ESJ…Adam identified you as a North Shore Young Lib…. I dont care for that…Can you please share with me what you do for a crust? If not I wont loose any sleep about it!
7:30 Report: appearing inordinately anxious, aggrieved and desperate for a bloke who had just given his imprimatur to 34 Billion Bucks worth of pork going forward, El Rodente actually called Kerry, “Tony”, before quickly correcting himself. Not quite the interest rate gaffe on commercial telly earlier today, nevertheless, it enhances the perception that he’s rooted. I was disappointed that Rat Features didn’t reprise his “begging for his work personal Work Choice” number that he blurted out last time he fronted inquisitor O’Brien. Since he’ll never be able to bend it like Beckham, I dream of the day King Kirribilli Coconut loses it like Klaus Kinski.
Yeah. I’d like to see that.
By contrast, granted it’s always an advantage to be face-to-face in interviews, Ruddster looked the epitome of comfortable and relaxed.
Re the L Plate ads as referred to.
I wonder how this goes down with the purportedly valuable hearts, minds and votes of the younger demographic. Everyone knows you have to spend a few months and effort on your Ls. Then you get your license.
PS I assume the taxpayer is still funding such ads.
Oh alright. I am a historian.
Edward,
Guess we have to play 20 questions. Are you a people smuggling, slave trading, drug courier capitalist who exploits the workers and rapes the earth’s resources while avoiding paying taxes?
And if you are, is your last name Packer or Murdoch?
OK – we have all overanalysed today to death. If you want to summarise the headlines for tomorrow:
#1 Howard gives massive tax cuts
#2 Labor to delay response (or in The Oz, on the back foot) to tax cuts
#3 Howard makes gaffe over interest rates
#4 Labor challenges Coalition over industrial relations
Overall, notwithstanding Howard’s gaffe on ACA, it looks like the Libs won the day – not a real surprise, considering they spent $34m on tax cuts – but the ACA gaffe will not be that helpful in aspirational voter land (ACA’s target audience).
If this is what it’s going to be like for the rest of the campaign, it’s going to be bloody long… 40 days (and 2.5 hours) to go…
Howard was on the verge of losing it with Kerry O’Brien, and it’s only day one of the campaign. If that’s anything approaching a sign of things to come, he’s going to implode at some point. I, for one, can’t wait.
#179 Never mind the “captains of industry” mark, they will be blown away with what Rudd in an alliance with the States offers them on infrastructure investment, overhaul of “red tape” and R&D tax incentives to improve national productivity. This is something the coalition CAN NOT match because they don’t have the co-operative “federalism”.
Now that Howard has stuffed up on interest rates, he can expect quizzes on all sorts of things (price of bread, cost of petrol etc) whenever he’s interviewed, because it’s an easy cheap shot for the TV hosts.
And these things work…remember Hewson’s birthday cake confusion? That pretty well did him in. And I vaguely recall that Keating struggled to remember the price of milk.
I think Rudd might do better at these quizzes, because a) he’s got a pretty sharp memory, b) he’s a SNAG, and has probably done his share of grocery shopping (he certainly irons his own shirts, according to one of the papers today), and c) because he’s only been leader a little while, he hasn’t lived somewhere where all meals, shopping, housing costs are provided by the taxpayer.
I reckon both leaders will be sitting down late tonight with their minders, reciting the prices of household commodities.
And I reckon the punters will be saying to each other tomorrow..hey, bloody Howard doesn’t even know the level of interest rates, and he reckons we’ve never had it so good on housing costs!
I know it’s shallow, and doesn’t prove anything about the ability to run a country, but it’s the way these campaigns go.
Swing Lowe,
Agree 100%. It’s going to be a long campaign and I don’t think the Joe Average is going to care about Howard’s gaffe. It’s only us obsessives who get a kick out of it.
I guess this is the only way the Nats can get into the news today…
http://www.smh.com.au/news/National/Nats-accuse-Labor-of-intimidation/2007/10/15/1192300684646.html
Watch is ESJ – everyone will thing you’re Keith Windshuttle! 😉
I’d say Swannie and KR would be desperately working the calculators trying to work out a tax policy and hoping against hope there isnt a hole in it.
Sky news’s headline is “Some economists say Howard’s tax cuts could raise interest rates”. Wouldn’t Costello hate this to be tomorrow’s head line or appearing anywhere on the same page.
Lol, possum. Much too right wing for me.
Historian……?
Sure man, & I’m a Gynecologist !!! LOL
So who saw 4 Corners article on the Exclusive Brethren Sect? Corrupting the political process. Backed by the one and only John Howard. The best way to discourage them from working in polling booths. Go up and talk to them. They are not allowed to talk to us mortals. If that doesn’t work tell them your gay. This is sure to drive them away, along with any other fundamentalist organisation helping out the Liberal Party. I’m sure if you stand next to an Exclusive Brethren (the females wear scarves on their heads) and talk about your gayness etc, they won’t stay around for long.
Well AG01 and Paul K, you did ask? I am sorry its not more exciting.
ESJ,
I’m pretty sure that Labor had a draft tax policy coming into this campaign – they’ve been pretty prepared for everything else that has come up this year, so it would be safe to assume that they’ve prepared for this.
I think they’ll just be double-checking their figures atm and seeing if they can make any alterations. I doubt that they’re going to let themselves get into a bidding war with the Coalition over tax, as they know that they’re more vulnerable on economic management than the Coalition.
As I said before (on the other thread), expect a similar amount to be spent in a different structure – tax rebates (eg, 125% tax rebate for businesses who set up a biotech company in Oz), movements in brackets and perhaps either an elimination of a particular bracket (i would nominate the 40% bracket) or a slight cut in the corporate tax rate (maybe to 29% – it’s more symbolic than anything else).