Morgan phone poll: 59-41

Possibly presaging a future pattern of early-week phone polls to tie us over until the Friday face-to-face, Roy Morgan brings us a phone survey of 611 respondents showing Labor leading the Coalition 59-41 on two-party preferred, and by 50 per cent to 36 per cent on the primary vote. Morgan alternated between phone surveys and larger-sample face-to-face polls until the end of August, after which it moved exclusively to face-to-face.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

495 comments on “Morgan phone poll: 59-41”

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  1. [Frank, I believe I’ve worked out why they disappeared and corrected the problem, if that’s any comfort to you. But unfortunately they cannot be retrieved.]

    Ok, hopefully 3rd time lucky.

    [A CORRUPTION report into former WA premier Brian Burke has found a WA Minister and six others had engaged in misconduct.
    Mr Burke worked for developer Canal Rocks who wanted to build a $330 million project at Smiths Beach in Yallingup, in the lead-up to local elections in Busselton in 2005.

    The Corruption and Crime Commission (CCC) spent several weeks last year examining whether Canal Rocks or its proponents exerted undisclosed or improper influence on public officers as they sought to get the development approved.

    The report, released today after being tabled in the WA parliament, recommended disciplinary action be taken against three public servants.

    The CCC made no recommendations for criminal charges as a result of the misconduct allegations but it is seeking independent legal advice in regard to false evidence given at the public hearing.

    Current election donations disclosure regimes for local government should be reviewed, the CCC said.

    The report said Canal Rocks secretly paid more than $47,000 to candidates sympathetic to their development and attempted to delay a new town planning scheme so the development could be assessed under less strict conditions.

    CCC executive director Mike Silverstone said evidence of misconduct was found against former small business minister Norm Marlborough, former environmental protection authority chairman Dr Walter Cox, former Department of Planning and Infrastructure deputy director Paul Frewer, the same department’s senior officer Mike Allen and Busselton shire councillors Philippa Reid, Anne Ryan and John Triplett.

    The report also made a recommendation of disciplinary action against Mark Brabazon, a senior public servant now with the WA Department Of Environment and Conservation.]

    http://www.news.com.au/perthnow/story/0,21598,22556583-2761,00.html

  2. Quote of the day from Nostradamus. In another place.

    “It is not possible for a female person to rape an individual.
    Think before you type!”

    I think McClelland just taught Kevin Andrews how to dog whistle. 🙂

  3. ahh, charles I’d like to take comfort but – smh/theage polls don’t cut it – we all know the internet readership of fairfax! Anyway, it should be running 88% anti-death penalty (as is normal for these issues in smh/theage polls!)

  4. You wait and see the roasting Howard gets in the SMH and the Age tomorrow over judicial killing. These are the papers people in the seats I mentioned above read. The tabloids may well support him, but that doesn’t matter because the tabloid-readers (if that’s not an oxymoron) have turned on him over WorkChoices, and it’s too late to turn most of them back.

  5. #
    252
    ruawake Says:

    I think McClelland just taught Kevin Andrews how to dog whistle. 🙂

    You know that was my thought, why is McClelland dog whistling to us wet liberals?

  6. Rudd managed to show Downer for the dill and hypocrite he is by quoting him on the 7:30 report re DP. Wonder if Howard will now chastise him LOL. He also made a good challenge to Howard re political advertising and pledged to change it if elected.

  7. If it was a ‘dog whistle’ it was poorly managed. Kevin Rudd appearing quickly to admonish McClelland wouldn’t sit too well with the so-called ‘wet liberals’. The best thing to do will be to just stop talking about the issue and let it die out.

  8. Adam, I wish I had your confidence in the enlightened self-interest of the great unwashed… but had they been really thinking of their own best interest – Howard would never have been elected. This would be exactly the sorta issue which could get the working men and women of Australia voting Liberal.

  9. John Rocket Says:

    ahh, charles I’d like to take comfort but – smh/theage polls don’t cut it.

    Yes but reads Adams post, his view it is about the people who the read the smh/theage.

    I don’t know why McClelland is dog whistling us, but I sure do appreciate it.

  10. Personally I hope they hang the Bali Bombers but having said that I can’t imagine how this issue could save any of Howard’s marginal seats from falling. If the Indonesian government wants to execute the Bombers there is nothing Kevin Rudd can do or say to stop them so for all practical purposes it’s a non-issue. This just another story which will be forgotten in a week’s time. It will be about as effective as the Budget Bounce for the Libs.

  11. John Rocket, if one issue like that is enough to sway voters then they were never going to vote Labor anyhow. It’s really not a huge deal. It was a mishandled statement of policy, but the only way for it to get much air is for the Liberal Party to find a way to beat more air out of it.

  12. I confirm what Ruawake wrote @ 243. Kevin Rudd batted extremely well for some 15 minutes; he sent 6 balls to the boundary: two lovely leg glances on terrorists and death penalties (“rot in prison and come out in a pine box” does not make terrorists martyrs), two cover drives challenging Howard on time-limits on Government advertising rorts and 4 year terms, a pull to the on-side fence on allocation of ministries post-election (will Howard guarantee ministerial posts – and the same ministerial post for his present Cabinet?) and a beautiful straight drive off a Kerry interjection on Abbot’s comments on Labor Health policy. With the occasional single and two, he finished not out at 32, looking healthy, invigorated and young.

  13. Phillipa Reid was the Liberal candidate for Forrest until she was dropped when this mess began to emerge. She is an NCB stooge – no doubt he is lurking behind all this somewhere. You have to love WA. Labor has (or had) Burke, the Libs have (or had) NCB. Neither will go away. It’s a toss-up which of them is worse.

  14. [He kicked proverbial, challeged Howard to introduce four year fixed terms, got in free kicks against Govt. advertising, trashed Abbott’s credentials on health.]

    I would go for FIXED terms, but why did he say FOUR years!? That just makes too many voters think he is trying to reduce accountability to voters. It should be fixed three year terms first, then change to four years later.

  15. Rudd is performing well on 7.30 report, he hasnt missed a beat with Kerry, he did well in reading back Downers remarks on the death penalty, especially right after Downer was filmed sledging Rudd in his usual prissy toffy school prefect style.
    i did the rounds of the newspapers and its no longer front page stuff, when you can track it down in the back blocks, the blogs are only very few with most of them anti the death penalty, it’s already a dying cause.

  16. [Rudd managed to show Downer for the dill and hypocrite he is by quoting him on the 7:30 report re DP. Wonder if Howard will now chastise him LOL. ]

    So now according to Costello’s ‘logic’, Downer is a supporter of terrorists.

  17. Interesting article from the churches, seems they are upset that on the Exclusive Bretheren get access to the Libs. Also give Workchoices a good going over and are concerned about the decline of unions LOL.

    The Anglican Archbishop of Sydney, Dr Peter Jensen, says he was worried about the decline of unions.

    “I can’t see that it’s good for the nation that working people fail to unite together in guarding their workplace conditions,” he told The Bulletin.

    “A government that simply says to us, ‘look, we’re doing better than ever financially or economically’, is not actually saying what Australians only want to hear.”

    http://www.smh.com.au/news/National/Church-leaders-want-more-political-input/2007/10/09/1191695904886.html

  18. John Rocket: “This would be exactly the sorta issue which could get the working men and women of Australia voting Liberal.” Not this time, pal. This time they will be voting their hip pockets and purses. Howard’s great achievement with WorkChoices has been to destroy all his own work over 20 years in splitting the working class away from Labor over symbolic social issues.

  19. Okay, hopefully, everyone is right and I’m being foolish (not for the first time!) Mr. Howard can and will try anything.

    Personally, I’ve got nothing wrong with three year terms… fixed would be fine… but I don’t like four year terms. If I was king of the world – elections would be yearly! (yes, I know it’s silly but there you go!)

  20. I thought Rudd did quite well tonight with Kerry O’Brien: very Prime Ministerial performance. And, you can be sure McClelland will be lucky to get a Parliamentary Secretary job in the next Labor administration.
    Remember this is the dufus whose casting vote gave Latham the leadership in 2003: enough said!

  21. 258
    Call the election please Says:

    If it was a ‘dog whistle’ it was poorly managed. Kevin Rudd appearing quickly to admonish McClelland wouldn’t sit too well with the so-called ‘wet liberals’.

    Give them a break, it was their first try, they will get better at it. But then again two messages were sent in the same news cycle, and if they are lucky some right wing wacho will start banging on about the death penalty being reintroduced into Australia.

    Ooops to late to warn them, it’s happened.

  22. What Robert McLelland did was nothing…The question is- if it is okay for foreigners to face the death penalty for terrorism than if an Australian committs the same offence should they also face the death penalty?
    The only thing Mr McLelland did wrong was speak about this issue so close to the Bali anniversary.. nonetheless even if this was poor overall this is a beat up from people in Liberal party and Right Wing shock jocks who are clutching at straws..
    As usual though the ABC goes overboard regarding this issue which just shows how pathetic it has become.

  23. Just by the way, hypothetically speaking… if Mr. Howard was to try the death penalty wedge – do you think Mr. Rudd would go with it? If he did – do you think Labor would follow… in the interests of winning government?

  24. Dear oh dear when you’re too right-wing for Peter Jensen you are in deep ordure.

    By the way, did anyone share my amusement at Cardinal Pell demanding scientific proof before he will believe in climate change? Hello? Virgin birth, anyone? Raising the dead? Walking on water? Feeding the 5000? Life after death?

  25. Re Costello being attacked by WA Liberals.

    [Treasurer Peter Costello flew into Western Australia today to campaign in the most marginal Liberal seat in the state but came under unexpected fire from his own side of politics in the west.

    While the attacks from Opposition education spokesman Stephen Smith and WA Premier Alan Carpenter would have been expected, a broadside from former state Liberal leader Colin Barnett must have come out of left field.

    Mr Barnett today accused the treasurer of torpedoing the coalition’s failed 2005 election campaign by criticising key Liberal policies, including a proposal to supply water to Perth by building a canal from the far northern Kimberley region.

    Mr Costello had also failed to recognise the potential of the state’s economy, Mr Barnett said.

    Mr Smith wasted no time in trying to further prise open any potential Liberal divide.

    “Colin Barnett … as a former Liberal leader himself, says Peter Costello is out of touch, that he doesn’t understand Western Australia, he doesn’t understand the Western Australian economy,” Mr Smith said.]

    http://www.thewest.com.au/default.aspx?MenuID=77&ContentID=42970

  26. I met Angela Randall today, the Liberal Party Candidate for Bruce. She hasn’t a hope in hell of winning the seat but I noticed all her election material, etc was about “increased Child Care assistance”. It seems the whole focus was on avoiding talking about Work Choices like the plague and just talking about Supporting Families, Supporting Families and of coarse Supporting Families.

    Just can’t see how this as a strategy is going to save them.

  27. kina

    and laurie oaks is losing weight

    there is a kooky right wing nutjob conspiracy there somewhere…

    don’t tell piers

  28. What do you mean the ‘death penalty wedge’ John? Any attempt to legislate would need to be very hastily drafted, it would come across as an obvious ploy from the Liberal Party and very desperate. I’d expect it to have significant dissent within the Liberal Party.

    For it to succeed they’d need to convince moderate Liberal senators, who do not have seats at major risk, to put aside something they feel strongly about just in order to win an election. If the Liberal Party are capable of that I imagine that the Labor Party would be too.

  29. 276
    John Rocket Says:

    Just by the way, hypothetically speaking… if Mr. Howard was to try the death penalty wedge .

    The liberal voter can be wedged also. I think Adam has summed it up quite well.

  30. [253@ruawake Says:
    October 9th, 2007 at 8:09 pm
    Quote of the day from Nostradamus. In another place.
    “It is not possible for a female person to rape an individual.
    Think before you type!”
    I think McClelland just taught Kevin Andrews how to dog whistle]

    Nostradamus is wrong, just like he is with the polls LOL

    Rape can be carried out using other items!!

  31. Bugger, Buswell has been cleared.

    [The report found no evidence of misconduct by Deputy Opposition Leader Troy Buswell over contact he had had with a former Liberal Party powerbroker days before he was to be interviewed by the CCC.

    The inquiry heard Mr Buswell was the Busselton Shire president when he met Noel Crichton-Browne, who was working for the developer.

    Mr Buswell says he has been vindicated by the report.

    “It says that when I was lobbied by Mr Crichton-Browne in 2003 that at no time after that did I alter my view in relation to the Smiths Beach development,” he said.

    “I was opposed to it then and I reman opposed to it now.”]

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/10/09/2055175.htm

  32. For it to succeed they’d need to convince moderate Liberal senators, who do not have seats at major risk, to put aside something they feel strongly about just in order to win an election. If the Liberal Party are capable of that I imagine that the Labor Party would be too.

    Indeed. I don’t see it getting past both houses of parliament – it’s a definite “crossing the floor” worthy issue.

  33. AllyB Says:
    October 9th, 2007 at 8:42 pm

    That film clip on YouTube is brilliant – Kev should use it in his campaign launch!!! It needs to be played on tele somewhere…loved it – have emailed the link to many of my friends…….

    here is the link if you can’t find the earlier post about it

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8_zulGddP6o

    LOL that is sensational, I agree it would be fantastic on TV lol.

  34. [That film clip on YouTube is brilliant – Kev should use it in his campaign launch!!! ]

    Small problem, it’s a clip for one of the Greens Candidates, other than that the greeens should buy some airtime and put it on TV.

  35. Looks like the UN agrees with McClelland

    Australia under fire for ‘inconsistent’ death penalty stance

    The United Nations’ spokesman on the death penalty, Philip Alston, is a professor of law at New York University.

    He has long been a critic of the Federal Government for what he describes as ‘Australian exceptionalism’.

    That is, the Australian Government’s support for the death penalty for the Bali bombers, but its opposition to the sentence when Australian citizens such as the so-called Bali nine face the death penalty in Asia.

    Professor Alston says the Government has had numerous opportunities to voice its disapproval to the death penalty, but has chosen not to.

    “I’ve been struck by the silence of the Australian Government, particularly in United Nations’ forums,” he said.

    “I’ve presented, very recently, reports arguing that the death penalty is not legal under international law for offences such as drugs.

    “There would have been very good opportunities for the Australian Government to stand up and support that position, and they remained silent.”

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/10/09/2055099.htm?site=elections/federal/2007

  36. I watched the 7.30 report. I think he did ok, but nothing startling.

    On the death penalty thing I would hang the b….stards who use terrorism without blinking an eye lid, as most Australians would do to the Bali Bombers.

    It was a stupid comment to make; a mistake, no doubt about it.

    I hope this effort by a Labor Party ‘who ?’ shadow Minister is not repeated too often during the campaign proper.

    Shooting yourself in the foot [aka Latham] does have it’s precedents in recent elections- Howard will be hoping and praying for more Labor Party ‘nobody’ shadow ‘gaffes’ to be made – it might even tempt him to call everyone back to Cant*berra next week.

    He can swan around overseas so he dosen’t have to respond to the abuse of Parliamentary priv. the Coalition will no doubt want to use to heap utter b.s accusations and claims about Rudd et al.

    The end goal would be to see if Rudd really does have a glass jaw or enough idiotic shadow Ministers capable of unwittingly making Rudd and the Labor brand look stupid, lame or incompetent.

    Meantime, JWH is O.S and distant from any really dirty ‘smears’ the Coalition bulldogs [Costello, Abbott] can dream up over the weekend.

    If you think the smear and smudge stuff tossed up so far is bad, you aint seen nothin yet. 10+ points behind in the polls this close to the election means ANYTHING is worth a gamble, and I mean ANYTHING.

    At least it will give us something to talk about besides Glen’s predictable and delusional apologetics for the Liberal Party. My money is still on Nov. 24.

  37. Post 292 Frank Calabrese

    Of course – I guess I was rolling the Greens and Labor together when I was viewing the clip through my laughter. Anyway – it should get played somewhere – it is very good and to the point, plus a great song.

  38. Kina – that was a beauty – I had to remove my kids form the room as they were scared sh*tless by the freak….as I have been for the past 11 years. YouTube is a veritable goldmine.

  39. The People’s Court finds BLINDOPTIMIST and KINA, GUILTY OF GROSS POLITICAL SILLINESS, have you anything to say before the People’s Court pronounces sentence….

    168
    blindoptimist Says:
    October 9th, 2007 at 1:56 am
    164
    James J Says:
    October 9th, 2007 at 1:36 am
    http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22554363-601,00.html
    This could backfire. There was quite a large backlash…
    …
    I think it is good in principle and good politics. What are the Liberals going to say? They support capital punishment? As long as it is done somewhere else by someone else?

    This is a values-statement. It is the high-ground and it’s where the country should be standing… dare I say it: Australians can aspire to this, as well as to three cars, a boat, a holiday house and a double-storey faux-chateau…

    172
    Kina Says:
    October 9th, 2007 at 2:17 am
    The position is of course the right one as far as I am concerned.

    I am wondering if the want Howard to bite on this one? Seems like something they are dangling out there for Howard, or is it another attempt to distract them from a coherent campaign?

  40. Edward, to be honest I think both sides are overemphasising the importance of this. I’m bored with it already.

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