Newspoll has been sprung on us a day early, showing Labor’s two-party lead widening to 56-44 from 55-45 a fortnight ago. Labor’s primary vote is up from 47 per cent to 48 per cent, and the Coalition’s is down from 41 per cent to 39 per cent. Kevin Rudd has taken a slight hit on his satisfaction rating, down from 65 per cent to 62 per cent.
No, John, that is what Sanjay said, but I think he was joking.
Re Rx (72): What will Murdock columnists do?
My “have a buck on” list includes “Push for:
(1) employment figures calculation to revert to pre-Howard formula
(2) monthly balance of payments to attract the (usually hysterical) prominence they did pre-Howard
(3) the revival of the ‘Debt Truck’
(4) return to screaming “Debt!! Debt!!” and demanding the Labor Gov ‘factors in’ ALL fed. gov. borrowing and stop “telling lies” about being “debt free” when it is still borrowing in the way Howard still is (while claiming to be “debt free”)
And that’s just for starters!
GB 85 – dont think union members per se are any better or worse than non-union members. Its the structures that are not representative and the people they throw up.
47 – The only sheen Howard will retain is his resemblance to the cartoon character of the same name.
GK 83 – “management did the normal and ran away” – no actually they were co-ordinating the rescue mission whilst Bill Shorten mugged for the cameras.
But please dont let facts get in the way of spin.
TC 93 – dont do assertions only facts.
No such thing as a perfect world Eddy! Has workchoices bitten you on the backside yet? it sure bit me!…Up the unions.
ESJ 87 – Oh come on. I’m prepared to agree that political parties in Australia are run by ‘elites’ but it’s remarkably deluded to suggest the ALP is ‘significantly’ worse. Even if 100% of their candidates came from a union background, this is still more representative than the Libs. Union reps do (or should have had) some manner of contact with working people on a daily basis. The workers make up the vast majority of the voting public. What’s the Libs method of recruiting in touch candidates – scouring merchant banks for people like Malcolm Turnbull? Yeah right.
Does anyone have a more complete report of how the crowd at the NRL grand final responded to John Howard? I have heard there was “booing”, bit I didn’t see the coverage.
Was the crowds response substantial?
In my time I have observed that if people vote conservative they are either a) uneducated or b) selfish.
There is no other classification, it’s the what’s in it for me or too dumb to know better. Surely you couldn’t vote conservative and have the betterment of the country in mind.
Didn’t John Stuart Mills say ” not all stupid people are conservative but all conservative people are stupid”.
So here we go, getting he business=great, unions=evil by a Liberal Party supporter. What a surprise.
I doubt the Australian people care either way if they’re represented by union officials or by lawyers/business owners etc. When they’re in government if they don’t convince me that they’re in touch and have a vision for the country that extends beyond themselves and sectional interests I’m not going to vote for them.
In this circumstance, I don’t believe the Liberal Party is serving the Australian people any more. If so, they wouldn’t have introduced a legislative package that they knew would disadvantage Australians. Now of course, there’s a real risk that the ALP will prioritise the unions above Australians, but I’m willing to take that risk at this stage. Should they abuse our trust we will vote them out.
Simple.
Well AG98 – I am afraid WorkChoices Lite wont take away the swelling.
Read the policy documents – KR did the deal with the business groups in September.
#68 Edward
Is it just me, or isn’t it obvious that people who subscribe to ‘Left’ (incl. Labor) philosophies would seek out ‘helping’ occupations such as teaching, welfare, unions etc, and that the best of them would rise to the top in those occupations. Similarly those who subscribe to the Right (incl Libs) would similarly worship Mammon, with the best and brightest rising to the top in those occupations. If we can agree on that then we shouldn’t be criticing Labor for the number of Union Officials it offers up to the Parliament – we should be asking the Liberals why they believe it satisfactory to offer a Parliament full of second-raters while their ‘best and brightest’ eschew public service in their quest for even greater executive salary packages.
Good old eric willis -Albert Ross i had completley forgotten the genesis of our current far-right Fed Gvt and Howards TRUE core values and beliefs
The remark after the granville train trajedy was the most obscene i had heard.
Wasnt willis named in the wood royal commission?
Edward I would rather some representative from the unions be around than the ‘lock up the gates’ mentality that the government!
“How many Labor supporters currently buy News Ltd papers?”
Well, I stopped buying any News Ltd papers a while ago, simply out of principle. Murdoch only has the power and influence he has because people buy his products. I don’t feel comfortable contributing to this, especially when Murdoch’s influence is filtered through a staunch neo-conservative ideology, and therefore what I believe to be ultimately destructive, both socially and economically.
Regarding Newspoll, it’s all ho-hum really. Nothing much has changed. Good news for Labor. Clinging onto a 3% fall in Rudd’s approval rating, from 65 to 62, is really desperate stuff — is this Shanahan’s latest “presage” to a coalition turnaround?
But as Gary Bruce mentioned, some of the pro-government spin on polling results is not really a bad thing for Labor. I agree that if it looks like being an easy win, some people might want to redress the balance by voting Liberal. By talking up the prospects of a Howard win and a Rudd downfall, the media are potentially making the vote for Labor even stronger.
Nevertheless, the bias on policy issues and other areas is purely shameless, but hey, if Labor win, then papers like the Government Gazette, are going to have some serious thinking to do. Murdoch won’t want government advertising to favour Fairfax or to lose advantage when it comes to insider scoops. I reckon there will be a lot of inner conflict starting to emerge in some of the Murdoch editors in the lead-up to the election. They will want to back Howard, especially the GG, but at the same time, they also have to run a business that depends to some extent on having tight links to government insiders, etc. It’s gonna be a tough call.
Of course, the ultimately sensible thing to do is to try to strike a balance in their coverage, but for some reason, that just never seems to happen when it comes to News Ltd. It’s either one way or the other, all or nothing, with them.
Edward 68 [unlike the Liberals the Labor front bench is overwhelmingly made up of people from unions which represent 15% of the private sector workforce. There’s a fair point that they are wildly unrepresentative of anyone but themselves.]
Unlike the ALP, the Liberals front bench is overwhelmingly made up of laywers, which represent far less than 15% of the workforce. What’s your point, or is this just the usual prattle?
I think Newspoll’s on the low side for Labor – you can look at Bryan’s Sept graphs for confirmation. The poll immediately after the Lib leadership fiasco was affected by a sympathy spike, and this poll could be affected by either the Grand Final distraction or simply margin of error. The true situation is likely 57-58 to Labor.
#84 John of Melbourne. If your sick of polls what are you doing here? Are you a masochist?
Edward st John
I think your letting spin get in the way of facts. The management used the union to present the public face. You forget this conveniently to attack unions. You make out that unions are some evil organisation. They represent people who don’t have a voice. But I guess you like the master & slave concept of work choices. Lets go back to the industrial revolution & lets use young kids to do the work. Without unions we would be using canaries in the mines to test the air. Give me a break.
Unicorn 49 [In reality, the 5% they need must come from Labor’s figure of 55% as the other 45% are already voting Coalition. In other words they need 1 in 11 to change or 9% to change from Labor to Coalition.
With the polls now showing 56-44 they now need about 1 in 9 to change their vote.]
You are overlooking the fact that the major parties never get less than 35% of the vote on primaries (even Latham got 37% or so!), as the rusted-ons will never change. That leaves only about 30% of voters who are realistically ‘swinging’. So the Libs need 6% of the 30% to change their vote, which is 1 in 5. A very tall order with only a month or two left in which to do it.
One more time with feeling!
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/opinion/animations/0,25199,36,00.html
enjoy!
Back on topic … that Newspoll of 59/41 was a bonus for Shanahan et al – otherwise the TPP would have been oscillating in a one-point range since about June (ie between 56/44 and 55/45). That one outlier generated four weeks of headlines and speculation. Especially handy since Dennis has gone a bit quiet over the other “key measure”, preferred PM …
The lack of REAL people in parliament is the problem. People that believe in what they are doing. That they serve the electorate from the heart. Both majors have few members that are like that. That is why they fear minor parties be it FF Greeens Dems or ON because rightly or wrongly these groups are more representative of people than the major parties whose support comes from the majority of people who don’t give a toss about politics.
What is the time that Howard could call an election ( mid afternoon? )
“That is why they fear minor parties be it FF Greeens Dems or ON because rightly or wrongly these groups are more representative of people than the major parties whose support comes from the majority of people who don’t give a toss about politics.”
FF or the Greens more representative of ‘people’ than the major parties? Hardly – they’re both quite niche.
As for Newspoll, it’s the trend that never ends, it just goes on and on my friend…
DA 112
You are WRONG
Federal Cabinet has
8 Lawyers
1 Stock Agent
2 Farmers
1 Doctor
1 Press Secretary
2 Party Hacks
1 Soldier
1 DFAT person (Downer)
1 Banker Turnbull)
The Labor Hack Factor – either unions or party officials is actually about 85% so I think the facts speak for themselves old son.
GK 111 – canaries in mines – obviously the 85% of Australians who arent in unions dont agree with your cliched view of the world.
RX @ 71
Easy. He’ll deny that it happened. Akkers doesn’t believe in polls. This will continue for about 18 months and then one day while chopping wood he nicks himself on the shin and the wound bleeds badly and the blood eventually drains from his eyes and – lo! – for the first time he can SEE! He looks up from his navel and sees PM Rudd on the telly and steps forward and declares:”Kevin … I love you.” Or something like that.
Dario,
Good point and in fact it’s even better because if the rusted on component of Labor’s vote is 35% then the non rusted on component is 20% and the 6% required must come from that. That is they would need 30% of the non rusted component to change(and not lose any of their own)
The Newspoll 56-44 is looking very solid with now a 9% gap in primary vote. I think sometimes the 2pp figure gets inflated by too high a preference flow but this one is assuming 8-5 which looks realistic.
Mark 99 – I saw the presentation for the NRL – the booing for Howard was certainly noticeable but not excessive.
Bill i think the lack of REAL people is a not just about the major parties i dont think the minor parties are very representative either of a broad cross section after all you have rabid socialists on the Greens side and rabid christians on the FF side and wannabe socialists on the Dems side.
One word sums up 95% of the posts on this thread…hubris…enjoy being ahead yes but to be bantering on about how the Liberals are going to lose is nothing short of outright hubris you havent won yet and won have until Howard concedes on election night unless that happens i wouldnt be declaring the election over the only thing it will do is make a possible Coalition victory all the more sweeter because of your hubris.
Need i remind you all that based on the latest newspoll the Liberal vote is 4% less and the Nat vote is 3% than in 2004 i am assuming the Nat vote will be around at least 5% on election day so that brings the Coalition’s vote to 41% and all the Liberal Party has to do is win back 4% of the vote to bring it back to 45% and then lets not forget about the 8% voting for Others and the 10% who were either uncommitted or refused and Labor’s inflated primary…to think Labor has it in the bag is very misguided because Rudd is going to be hurt by some cracker Coalition ads they worked a treat against Latham and they’ll stand a good chance of doing the same against Rudd…
Shaun Carney in The Age (25 August) reveals an aspect of the WorkChoices agenda not commonly recognised. That is, by legislating away unions’ effectiveness, an even greater membership drop will ensue. With that, the money they pass (as major donors) to the Labor Party will also fall.
http://www.theage.com.au/news/opinion/its-all-or-nothing/2007/08/24/1187462515465.html?page=fullpage#contentSwap1
The long and short of it is that WorkChoices agenda is to:
1) atomise workers, leaving them at the mercy of the Libs’ powerful business constituency
2) slash the funding base of Labor, helping to entrench the cosy Liberal/Business coalition
With the exception of a couple of polls, the 2007 trendline primary vote for the ALP has been a little over 47%. It is obviously going to take something pretty significant to materially reduce this seemingly rock-solid support.
In other threads, it has been suggested that a security issue such as an air attack by the US and/or Israel might be a plus for the coalition. The extent of Iran’s response to an attack might well determine its electoral importance in Australia.
There have been some interesting ‘straws in the wind’ to the effect that the White House is in favour of more than a diplomatic response to what it sees as ‘unhelpful’ Iranian involvement in Iraq.
Consider, for example, the interview with Robert Bauer on Radio National Breakfast on August 30, 2007 in which the former high-ranking CIA agent said that his Pentagon sources had told him that an attack on Iran would almost certainly occur. See http://www.abc.net.au/rn/breakfast/stories/2007/2019388.htm
Also see this account of a Seymour Hersh article in the New Yorker which suggests ‘Australian interest’ in an air/missile attack on Iranian targets: http://www.theage.com.au/news/world/us-planning-surgical-strikes-on-iran/2007/10/01/1191090982046.html
When recently in New York, Alexander Downer had ‘unproductive’ talks with his Iranian counterpart. Defence Minister Nelson has also recently been ‘briefed’ on the Iranian position but has declined to comment on the issue.
So, perhaps, the Australian Government knows something that we do not and is factoring that knowledge into its election timetable.
Sorry William for the emphasis on Iran but it seems to me to be potentially very important. Should the mooted attack occur, it will, to say the least, be interesting to observe how it impacts on the current fairly settled domestic political scene.
Glen, I think it’s fair to say if the polls were reversed and showing the Coalition at 56% on the 2PP we’d be seeing a fair amount of ‘hubris’ coming from Liberal Party supporters. Some could even say people assuming that the Liberal Party will come back from these polls is a display of hubris.
Bill
I am sure that there a contradiction in what you say.
The majority of people who supposedly don’t give a toss about politics
(at least usually) deserve to have representation too.
If your party does not want to represent them, then it will be lucky to have anyone in parliament at all.
Edward StJohn
Please be accurate if you are going to quote 15% as union membership please add “private sector” to your posts.
Total union membership including the public sector is about 22% 😉
PS: further to my #122, Andrew Charlton makes the same point, also in The Age (30 Sep).
http://www.theage.com.au/news/opinion/pm-of-ulterior-motives/2007/09/29/1190486626917.html?page=fullpage#contentSwap1
ESJ 117 – So what proportion of the professions on your list exist to serve other people and not just to make money?? By my calculation 77% of the professions on your cabinet list there exist not to help society. I suspect it’s at least a similar proportion on the ALP side who formerly had professions that did exist only to help.
Face facts – to vote Liberal and be a Liberal MP you need only to look out for number 1. The selfish party.
Does it make you feel good to ingore society?
CTEP i think you wouldnt find as much hubris had the roles been reversed after all we ‘intelligent’ conservatives have to debate the masses of the proletariat on this blog for the most part and would not get away with displaying any hubris in the face of Paul k, Adam et al.
But its easy for the leftwingers to fall into the hubris trap because you are among many comrades here so its only natural, sure id be more confident but in an election campaign anything can happen…
Glenn 121 – For crying out loud mate, how many times do we need to go through this malarky about the National party vote?? Yes it may be under-represented in Newspoll versus what they get on election day, but you are assuming it’s being added directly to the ALP vote and therefore you slice some points off there to add it to the Nats.
How about this for a theory – the TOTAL coalition vote reported is correct, it’s the Libs who are overrepresented and the Nats that are underrepresented? Therefore to get the Nat vote, slice two points off the Libs.
Net effect is no change to the total numbers reported and the COALITION is on track to lose.
I think if you compare the total Coalition vote reported in Newspoll to what they get on election day, there is an equivalency there, therefore my theory is correct. Please stop spouting this other nonsense.
Edward Sin Gin – kerriiist! The ALP was founded by the union movement – not surprising some senior people are ex unionists. Re the Libs occupations, lets have the numbers for the whole minisitry, not just cabinet.
Gusface, it was Max Willis, not his brother Eric, who was named. But then so were many other, totally innocent people. That royal commission was a disgraceful piece of McCarthyism.
Quite simply keats the Bush is under represented in all polls therefore the ALP vote is inflated and thus can easily be taken from their column or from the Others…
Keats if you honestly think Labor’s primary is above 47% then that is complete and utter nonsense a rise of 10% in 3 years is bull butter to say the least sure between 5 and 10% but 10% hardly these polls have inflated Labors vote and just saying you’d vote Labor is different to actually voting for that rabble.
Adam, Sanjay was referring to your exposure of Noel Brunning as a stooge.
Not as loud as it would have been in Melbourne. [For I heard the boos at the A-League GF last year] For Sydney, it was substantial though. The crowds in Melbourne would have been much louder. There is more anti Howard sentiment there.
Centaur_007 @100.
Close; Mills said: “Conservatives are not necessarily stupid, but most stupid people are conservative.”
Good point Bill.
132 Glen Where’s your evidence the country is being under-represented in these polls? Perhaps a lot of people who they poll in the country are saying they’d vote Liberal, not thinking (or caring) they can only vote for a National candidate. These are the vagaries and distortions that are introduced by having Coalition candidates carve up seats. I reckon a lot of folks on the north coast of NSW (for example) would like to vote conservative and say ‘Liberal’ when asked, but on polling day only have the choice of voting National. This makes a lot more sense to me and backs up my earlier point about the total Coalition vote reported being correct. You haven’t offered any evidence to support your ‘country being underrepresented’ theory at all. So again please stop spouting this malarky.
“hubris”
Glen 121
Uh-oh. There’s some more of that damn hubricating going on. This time in broad daylight! Have we lefties no shame? Better break out the lube and the towels, just to be safe.
And has anyone ever seen Edward St. John and Steven Kaye in the same room at the same time?
Re Glen:
CTEP i think you wouldnt find as much hubris had the roles been reversed after all we ‘intelligent’ conservatives have to debate the masses of the proletariat on this blog for the most part and would not get away with displaying any hubris in the face of Paul k, Adam et al.
Ok then. I see what you mean in some ways. I read some comments on here and feel embarassed. I’d say a few people are more cautiously optimistic rather than hubristic. However, there’s nothing worse than false modesty if you are certain of a win. Can anyone at this stage be certain of a win? I’d argue no, but I’m sure some people would disagree with me.
I also completely reject that the conservative bloggers would be significantly less hubristic should they be so far in front in the polls. Personally I think any show of hubris is just leaving yourself open to attack when your side loses. ALP people here need to remember it’s a huge ask for them to win this election. It’s not over til it’s over.
There’s still work to be done but we’re headed in the right direction.
JW 134 – No I am sure Sanjay was referring to Adam as a closet Liberal stooge.
128 & 131 I will be providing details later today. I am off to enjoy a long liquid lunch provided by non-penalty & overtime “choiced” labour Lol.