Newspoll has been sprung on us a day early, showing Labor’s two-party lead widening to 56-44 from 55-45 a fortnight ago. Labor’s primary vote is up from 47 per cent to 48 per cent, and the Coalition’s is down from 41 per cent to 39 per cent. Kevin Rudd has taken a slight hit on his satisfaction rating, down from 65 per cent to 62 per cent.
[Quite simply keats the Bush is under represented in all polls therefore the ALP vote is inflated and thus can easily be taken from their column or from the Others…]
Evidence?
Edward, you can’t count. There are 11 former lawyers in cabinet, over 60%:
Howard
Costello
Ellison
McGauran
Hockey
Bishop
Andrews
Coonan
Turnbull
Ruddock
Minchin
If anyone has any inside channels to get information on when the election might be, here is an idea. Check the usual haunts for Parliament when they are in session. [Anyone who has regular parliament contacts might know the places that “fit” this description]. See if they are still “booked” for the next Parliament session. If there is any inside word that in fact there WON’T be another parliamentary sitting, wouldn’t it be expected that those “bookings” will be cancelled? At least then we might have a window for the calling of the election.
All this debate over lawyers v union officials is silly.
It’s assuming that lawyers and union officials are nothing other than lawyers and union officials. I’d imagine they’re all mostly, husbands/wives, fathers/mothers etc. and of course have their own internal philosophies etc.
I’m sure we’re all sophisticated enough to separate people from their occupations. Unless you’re willing to admit you’re nothing but your job.
@ 140 Edward StJohn Says:
Your inclination towards counter-factual beliefs is noted.
Can one be a former lawyer? I don’t think so, unless one is struck off or defrocked or whatever happens to crooked lawyers.
McGauran has a law degree? I’m amazed. It must have been a mail order one from the University of the Turks and Caicos Islands.
Julie that assumes that backbench Coalition members already know the election date and have made arrangements accordingly. I can assure you they don’t, and even if they did, they would still make all their normal arrangements for the 14 October sitting as a cover.
132
Glen Says:
October 1st, 2007 at 11:52 am
Quite simply keats the Bush is under represented in all polls therefore the ALP vote is inflated and thus can easily be taken from their column or from the Others…
Keats if you honestly think Labor’s primary is above 47% then that is complete and utter nonsense a rise of 10% in 3 years is bull butter to say the least sure between 5 and 10% but 10% hardly these polls have inflated Labors vote and just saying you’d vote Labor is different to actually voting for that rabble.
Glen, I acknowledge that you may be a great fan of stream of consciousness in your writing style.
Please try using punctuation, preferably of the standard sort, more often. It will make it easier for everybody else to follow your ideas.
Rx @ 126
Yes, it was a chilling summation of Howard’s manipulation of the political process.
Reminds me of my wife’s observation years ago that the libs don’t want workers’ kids educated because they might become intelligent – and vote labor.
[Can one be a former lawyer? I don’t think so, unless one is struck off or defrocked or whatever happens to crooked lawyers.]
Former or non-practising, call it what you will. They are all in politics now, and despite them passing ‘laws’ I wouldn’t call them lawyers any more.
I’ve just cleared 10 comments from moderation. Welcome back, ESJ.
William Bowe
http://www.pollbludger.com
bugger all this political bickering
chris mainwaring is dead !
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,22511069-2,00.html
🙁
Adam i don’t think you should be offending the Turk and Cacos islands residents here. i don’t think Magauran would be accepted there.
ESJ – nice to see you back. However, you seem to have hardened up since your last visit here. It’s good to know that all that Liberal shouting to their base about “union bosses” is working.
I’m wondering if Costello’s slips over the election date is just him trying to force Howard’s hand in calling the election: he wants Howard out of the way ASAP so he can finally get the leadership reins…if if its leader of the opposition.
ABC World Today. Chris Ullman (spelling?) says the government has given up believing the polls will turn. All hope now is on campaign, a long one.
I guess now we know why Howard is stalling calling the election. He’s waiting for his mate Bush to give him another Tampa…
http://www.smh.com.au/news/world/us-plan-to-bomb-iran/2007/10/01/1191090983037.html
135, its scary that this meagre 22% of the unionised workforce has the great politcal intellects of our time shivering in their boots. The Union bogey is the modern form of McCarthyism. The idea that this minority of the workforce is going to hold us decent folks to ransom in spite of the harshest anti-labour laws to this point in time suggests a lack of ideas on the Tory side of politics. Hopefully the years they will soon spend in opposition will cause some sober reflection that will give rise to some new ideas-but then again when have they ever had an original idea or an idea that didnt have its origin somewhere else?
Glen 142 – ‘the Bush is unrepresented in the polls?’ Mate – about 80 percent of Aussies live in the major cities and towns.
Quite simply the Unions knew they’d be finished if the Coalition was re-elected that’s why they have spent everything they’ve got to get Kev in because Kev is going to keep them alive one way or another…
But that cannot hide the fact that Unions are irrelevant to today’s workforce…if you cannot get more than 1 in 5 to join the Trade Union movement and with numbers continuing to fall its going to be a tough ask for Labor if they win to keep the Unions going…but i guess they’ll find a way with Crean, Combet, Shorten and Cameron et al on a possible Rudd front bench…
I’d rather have lawyers than union bosses running the country…for obvious reasons…
Rx all the way back at 58 (sorry, had to be away from the PC for an hour or two):
Looking at Possum’s Newspoll analysis, the swing in marginals is 8.3% compared with 11.6% in safe government seats, from an overall swing of 8.8% (this is based on the latest quarterly data released).
Possum does some psephological voodoo on the data but the pattern is essentially the same – larger swings in ‘safe’government seats, lesser in marginals.
http://possumcomitatus.wordpress.com/2007/09/30/my-what-a-big-swing-you-have/
if Bush decides to bomb Iran that should be a plus for labor, i dont think any Australians want to become involved in another of Bush’s gung ho wars, except of course for those pitiful few who see Howard as their allknowing god.
“Mills said: “Conservatives are not necessarily stupid, but most stupid people are conservative.—
Marilyn Monroe in Gentlemen prefer Blondes might have paraphrased it
“You don’t have to be stupid to be a Conservative, but my goodness, it’s a great big help”
Glen 170 – you just demolished the government scare about ‘union bosses’. If unions are irrelevant in the workplace, then they are irrelevant at all levels in society. The reality is that the unions lost their influence in the 90s when Keating ‘pulled their teeth’ (his words). That’s why Rudd is now able to stand up and say that HE will choose his ministers, not the union-based factions.
Re 157,
Adam, that was what I wanted to know. thanks :). Given the loose lips on the front bench, I didn’t figure anyone could keep a secret, but you never know …..
[ABC World Today. Chris Ullman (spelling?) says the government has given up believing the polls will turn. All hope now is on campaign, a long one.]
So why don’t they just call the election? What if the polls get worse, and they have even less time for the campaign?
[Quite simply the Unions knew they’d be finished if the Coalition was re-elected that’s why they have spent everything they’ve got to get Kev in because Kev is going to keep them alive one way or another…]
Good. Labour unions are an important ingredient of any functioning democracy.
U_H_L_M_A_N_N
As the Libs plan on a long and dirty campaign (do they know any other sort?), it must worry them that an element in Labor’s enduring popularity this year is likely to have been a reaction-sympathy to the dirt and muck thrown at them non-stop by the tories.
With that in mind, they must be considering the discomfiting possibility that a particularly dirty campaign will hurt them (tories) more than it will their opponents.
The polls won’t improve until after the Election date is announced.
The Election date won’t be announced until the polls improve.
Looks like the GG will have to sack Howard and get Caretaker PM Rudd to announce the date ;D
Adam #156: “Can one be a former lawyer? I don’t think so, unless one is struck off or defrocked or whatever happens to crooked lawyers.”
Ouch! Of course you can! I haven’t practised law for around 20 years (and yes, I left voluntarily) and definitely consider myself a former lawyer.
Although some cruel folk have been known to refer to me as a “recovering lawyer”….
Good thing that they don’t give out citizenship based on what party you vote for as they let me in and I’m not voting for them. ;-D Amanda Vanstone’s stamped signature is on my citizenship certificate.
Actually Alex no. What is frightening about the Unions is that although they are growing increasingly irrelevant to society, Union officials represent at least 70% of Labor’s front bench giving them more power than they’ve had in a long time…if Rudd wins he’ll Combet and Shorten on the front bench two Union hacks….Rudd is only able to say that Alex if he brings Labor out of 11.5years of irrelevance but the factions got him to the leadership and both major parties are beholden to them regardless of what Rudd says…
Ok, brainstorm guys.
What *can* the Liberals do to reduce the carnage at this election? Presume that you’re a Liberal strategist and your mind is on making the Party competitive in 2010. What do you do?
I just don’t know which they can turn… and I’m loving it.
[What is frightening about the Unions]
Wow, it doesn’t take much to scare you!
[if Rudd wins he’ll Combet and Shorten on the front bench two Union hacks….]
Those two guys are going to keep the anti-union hacks of the Liberal party in opposition for quite a while. Those two guy should frighten you quite a lot, because they have the capacity to make the Liberal party irrelevent for about a decade.
[Rudd is only able to say that Alex if he brings Labor out of 11.5years of irrelevance but the factions ]
Which factions would they be?
Glen 182 – I can’t really follow your ‘logic’. Also, pls take earlier hint re use of punctuation.
They can’t reduce carnage at this election. They can’t be competitive in a DD election next year nor 2011 either. By the time 2014 rolls around, whether or not they are competitive will depend on how much new blood they have in the party. They need fresh faces and new ideas. New ideas won’t come from the same old faces. We can see that now played out around us at the moment. And yes, it is fun to see them squirm. The look on Howard’s face last night as the Sydney crowd were booing him was priceless ;-D.
[What *can* the Liberals do to reduce the carnage at this election? ]
Release some policies.
Announce the precise date that Howard is going to resign (within the first year of the government)
Propose an indepth inquiry into the ways that WorkChoices has failed.
#183 “What *can* the Liberals do to reduce the carnage at this election? Presume that you’re a Liberal strategist and your mind is on making the Party competitive in 2010. What do you do?”
Charlie, I know exactly what they can do, not only to reduce the carnage, but to be returned at the up-coming election with a comfortable margin.
I could tell you, but then I’d have to kill you.
(Seriously, who wants to give them advice?? Not me.)
Re lawyers – IIRC, once you are admitted to the Bar, you are on the Roll of Practitioners until struck off. Thus, once a lawyer, always a lawyer.
I am a lawyer, but I gave it away years ago. I’m now a bureaucrat 😛
Excusings for confusions on matters of stooges being late..Sanjay busy with making childrens for in order to make gresater country greaster but took to relif from labors to say was not adam who is fine fellow referings along to be bunnins –why is hardwearings shop has involvins in sereris mutter of polintikets???? Sanjay has confusings on head.
Sir Saintly St Johnnies by gosh. Must have to be Kight of Templars by gods!!! Sanjay has noting of commenting re-s labirngs people not have childrens in cabinets – childlessness sodoms …Being asured restins Sait Joh — Sanjay workings on jobs and has grateful heedings of your wonderous lights
The big problem at the heart of Glen’s arguments about unions is the unquestioned assumption that unions are bad and the equally unquestioned assumption that a majority of Australians likewise think that unions are bad.
It is the same reasoning (or lack of) that Howard uses.
So, Glen, rather than simply pointing to the obvious facts about Labor having links to unions, you really should be explaining why unions are bad. If you can convince us all of this, then you might start having some success when you go on your anti-union tirades. BY not doing this, your arguments, claims, and smears end up being hollow and pointless, just like Howard’s and Hockey’s.
Charlie, the substantial periods of consevative success seem to have been achieved by hiving off the right of the Labor party..Billy Hughes in 1915, Joe Lyons in 1931, the DLP in 1955(how many elections did Menzies win with
Charlie @183. It may be too late for them to redeem the election at this late stage. (Let’s hope so, anyway). Might be that their only chance at viability and relevance in the longer term is to recognise where they have gone wrong these past years.
IMO, they have been a party of weak yes-men under the spell of the Rodent. The party has allowed Howard to so dominate and stifle dissent that it should more accurately be called the Howard Party. They need to learn not to put all their leadership eggs in one basket.
Howard has wilfully dragged them, in his own image, to the extremes of the Australian political spectrum. From there, there are only two routes to take.
1) Continue on their path to radicalism and irrelevance; or
2) Compete for the centre ground (and relevance/viability) which Labor has naturally filled.
[Glen, rather than simply pointing to the obvious facts about Labor having links to unions,]
Don’t assume that what is obvious for us, is obvious for Glen. He goes on and on and on about unions that I don’t think he understands the history of trade unions in Australia, and their relationship to the ALP.
“(Seriously, who wants to give them advice?? Not me.)”
I wouldn’t be giving them any advice either. But at the very least, Howard is going to need some policies for after the election. He is in no position to be playing small-target. Howard barely has any policies that point to what he would do in a fifth term, whereas Rudd has accumulated a substantial list of policies now.
Something Glen should consider is that the unions have had a positive role in many functioning democracies for over 150 years. He and other reactionaries might not like them, but they have pushed for many improvements in the workplace, which without would look like Dickensian England.
Perhaps I should point out that when democracy is stifled in a country, the first thing many regimes tend to do is to ban the unions? Now why is that?? I wonder??
“Don’t assume that what is obvious for us, is obvious for Glen.”
Yep. The thing is we all KNOW that Glen is just spouting the latest Liberal party propaganda. This is the reason why he has failed to think through what he is actually saying. It is the same for the “Rudd lacks experience” argument. It is just a repeat, over and over, of the same lines that Howard and his ministers use.
My #192 got truncated.
Basically I’m not a Liberal strategist (thank God!),but I’d:
Use Govt funds to set up a sort of Snowy Mountains Scheme to tackle Climate change (eg Wind farms, desalination plants) but make sure the profits go into private hands.
Stop sending refugees to camps, but use them as cheap labour (thus crippling the unions).
Spend more money on Hospitals and on climate change science, thus appeasing the “doctor’s wife” constituency.
Use refugees as cheap labour? Only a Liberal Government could come up with that!!
“Use refugees as cheap labour? Only a Liberal Government could come up with that!!”
Yes, indeed